I have a good mate who is a long-suffering Richmond fan. Pete rang to razz after the Tigers’ incredible one-point win over the Swans a couple of weeks back.
He suggested that I should write an article on Richmond storming home to make the finals. I considered this proposition, and decided to test another theory.
The saying (somewhat purpose-fitted) goes that there are three certainties in life – death, taxes and Richmond finishing ninth.
It is a bit unfair on the old Tigers, who actually have not finished ninth since 2008.
In the 22 years that the top eight has been in place, the Tigers certainly have been over-represented in this category, finishing ninth on six occasions.
The notion of the ninth-place Richmond grew between 1994 to 2008, where the Tiges finished ninth roughly on average every two and a half years.
The phenomenon climaxed during the Terry Wallace era of 2005 to 2009, with his Richard Tambling-led five-year rebuild being punctuated (or should I say punctured) by a wooden spoon, second last, twelfth and two solid ninth places in 2006 and 2008.
On Richmond’s run home this season, I have calculated they have the opportunity to win approximately another seven matches on top of the four they have won to date, leaving them a record of 11-11.
When looking at the history of ninth places in the 17-18 club competition between 2011 and 2015, the side finishing ninth generally has had to win ten to 12 games.
Currently in 2016 Melbourne occupy the spot on five wins.
Richmond are thus perfectly placed for a mid-season revival and break the hearts of their fans again.
Ironically, of the other teams who with Richmond are technically within striking distance of the eight (including Collingwood, Melbourne, Port and the Saints), Carlton are the team that have the best draw in the last 11 weeks of the season and could challenge Richmond for the honour of finishing just outside the finals.
If the hype or injuries don’t get to them, the Blues can win six to seven of their matches if they maintain their surprising and spirited form this season.
On a more serious side – nearing the halfway mark I think it is safe to say the top eight is looking settled.
The Crows are the best-looking eighth-placed team anyone has seen for a while, and the eight will be now about jostling for places on the ladder rather than those coming up the ranks.
I would agree with most pundits that this season is a very open one and up for the taking, but concurrently we have also seen some of the most exciting footy collectively played over many years.
John Longmire has rediscovered his coaching mojo. Ross Lyon has not managed to adapt his mid-2000s model of choking the life out of a game, and has suffered as his team has aged and tired playing a physically exhausting brand of footy.
The Hawks are also well-placed to threaten again this year. After a brutal draw to start the season, their next six weeks are relatively kind and they are well-placed to be top-four again. I would not want to be playing them in September.
But back to finishing ninth, and for the record, here are my tips on the Tigers’ run home in 2016 to reach their milestone.
North (L)
Gold Coast (W)
Bye
Brisbane (W)
Port (W)
Bulldogs (L)
Essendon (W)
Hawthorn (L)
GWS (L)
Collingwood (W)
Geelong (W)
Saints (W)
Swans (L)
Thanks for your suggestion Pete – looking forward to the Swans versus Tigers rematch in Round 23.
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