It’s West Coast for me, to the tune of 78 points. That’s my Thursday Night Forecast, what’s yours?
What? You were expecting something longer? OK, fine.
This game is not going to go well for Essendon. West Coast have been Dr Jekyl at home this season and play host to the Dons off of their bye and with sentiment towards them at a season-long low.
The Eagles are the easy beats of this year’s finalists, which might be true, but for a team that made a number of moves to make good on a grand final appearance in 2015 that would be considered a failed season. They will be primed to shred.
Home-field advantage is going to be critical in this season’s finals series, with four Victorian teams and four non-Victorian teams. Indeed, the Hawks could end up with the strongest home-field advantage of the top eight, given they’re the only MCG tenant that looks likely to be playing in September.
That’s another story for another time. Suffice to say, though, given the tightly bunched nature of this year’s top eight, top spot is still faintly in play for every team.
And it could all be decided by games like this one: big, big victories to help boost percentages and help break the inevitable ties that will exist across the final eight.
In the final nine rounds, the top eight play each other 13 times in what will effectively be eight-point games – winning not only gives you four points, but it keeps it off one of your rivals who are also hungry for top six, top four and top two finishes. Six of those games are in the final three rounds, which has worked out deliciously for the AFL and its fixture team.
More interesting in the context of this evening, though, are the times that the bottom three teams – the punching bags of the league in the run home – are to front up for a pantsing against the top eight. There are nine of these guaranteed blowouts coming in the final nine rounds, starting with tonight’s game.
So far this season, these three have scored an average of 67.2 points per game, and conceded 122.2 points per game, against top eight sides for a percentage of 182. Over a 22-game season, a victory of that magnitude is worth about eight percentage points of percentage. Every basis point is going to be mighty important in separating the bevvy of 15, 16 or 17 win teams up top.
So, who gets them? Let’s find out.
| ESS | BRI | GCS | |
| ADE | ● | ● | |
| GEE | ● | ● | |
| GWS | ● | ● | |
| HAW | |||
| NOR | |||
| SYD | |||
| WCE | ● | ||
| WBD | ● | ● |
Tonight is West Coast’s last chance, therefore, to give itself a meaningful percentage boost ahead of the push towards a home final. Adelaide, Geelong, GWS and the Western Bulldogs, on the other hand, get two more bites at the cherry, while North Melbourne, the Hawks and Sydney are done fluffing their pillows this year.
Right, as to the game at hand, the market has given Essendon a 72.5 point head start and considers this one a complete mozz straight up. It is not going to be a spectacle like last Saturday night’s thriller between the Cats and Saints, but there is plenty to watch out for.
Nic Naitanui has developed an entertaining habit of eating cumbersome opposition ruckmen alive this year; his absence will rob us of some spectacularly clean centre breaks. Luke Shuey has been in career-best form this year – shame much of the rest of the side has taken a step back – and with Scott Lycett back in the side after a discipline-induced absence, there’s still some centre bounce fun to be had.
Josh Kennedy has a habit of beating up on weak opposition too, and, well, Essendon are weak opposition. Last week, Kennedy kicked five goals straight against the Lions, despite playing just 65 per cent of the game.
In 2016, he’s kicked 13 points per game against teams inside the top eight, and 30 points per game against teams outside the top eight, including 18 goals and four points in three games against the current bottom three. Again, I think we can comfortably predict a bag for Kennedy this evening.
Essendon are probably going to struggle to break above their season average of 57.8 points per game scored against top-eight opponents this evening. West Coast’s defensive unit has performed well this season, albeit not at the top four level they achieved last year on account of their then-unique zone structure.
Essendon have played a possession-heavy, kick-mark game this year which will allow them to move the ball around, but once it gets to the pointy end of the ground West Coast’s back six will devour the comedy show that is Essendon’s forward line whole.
Car crash TV looks like the order of the evening, but you know what? It’ll still be a better watch than Season 97 of MasterChef, Thursday night ‘rugby’ league or indeed Car Crash Britain on ONE. Wimbledon will also be on as a back-up plan should things get out of hand early.
To pay homage to the opening line of this sort-of match preview, it’ll be West Coast in a canter, by 13 goals or more. That’s my Thursday night forecast, what’s yours?
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
Nice rationalisation. Doesn't really stack up,given he's talking about WC's record at home over a prolonged period, but worth a try.
michael RVC
Roar Pro
Poor execution of football skills is poor football which equals less free kicks "for" and more against, we all know that story. Essendon are playing poor football for this comp, they have some reasons, so hence the free kick result. Happens every week all over the country, mainly in Melbourne where most of the games are played - every week. Some can't help themselves - mentioning the conspiracy against Vic teams. Boring.
michael RVC
Roar Pro
Not that BigAl doesn't feel sated when his team has a bit if a blowout win?
Chaos
Guest
78 points was a good prediction.
gameofmarks
Roar Guru
Yeh I bagged the selection of McGinnity on another thread and reckon Simpson should give Kane Lucas a game on the wing before McGinnity. Ginner hasn't got the elite skills to command a permanent place for himself in the Eagles side. To his credit he gives 100% every time he runs out onto the park and last night he was rewarded for effort with 4 goals, and should have been 5. He himself acknowledged afterwrds in an interview that he is happy to just be a squad player and knows he isn't in the best 22 for the Eagles. As a squad player I can understand why Simpson picked him for the game - they needed more grunt at the contest and Ginner gave them that last night. Tom Lamb seems to be wasting away in the twos and maybe he could even be considered for a run on the wing. Everyone got the Jetta trade wrong thinking he would immediately produce the form from 2012/13 that made him such a damaging midfielder at the Swans. Even Rosa thought his playing days at the Eagles were numbered with Jetta coming to the Eagles. How wrong everyone was! We desperately miss Rosa and need either to find a specialist wingman or Jetta needs to find some form quickly. He has elite kicking skills but just can't seem to find the ball enough. Maybe put him in a back pocket and let him work his way back into form. A lot easier to play the game with the ball always in front of you and his kicking skills will be able to break lines coming out of defence. Barrass is improving with each game and I can see him and McGovern being a dominant duo playing together in 2017. Forget McKenzie, he is past it. Mitch Brown played a serviceable game and should improve with each outing. I reckon his permanent position is Back Pocket. Jackson Nelson was a revelation in the midfield. this kid is maturing as a footballer very quickly. Good to see.
Aransan
Guest
With hindsight the odds were reasonable, the operation was a success but the patient died. If you really want to see silly odds, how about $15-$18 for Jack Silvagni to kick the first goal against Collingwood.
While we're at it
Guest
Nice prediction Ryan, spot on. Eagles still the best free kick + team at home, thought the Bombers were valiant for 2 &1/2 quarters but faded.
Lroy
Guest
Ok.. that makes a lot of sense, I really think he needs a move, he seems to be finding it hard to get into the game these days. The other one I dont understand is they have brought McGinnity back into the side. He is a good honest trier, but for 5 years or more he hasnt been able to nail down a permanent spot, surely its was the perfect time to give some young guy a shot?? Same for Sam Butler, they could have given him a game at East Perth while some young player could have come in for a game. I cant imagine they are going to play him beyond this year are they?? Thoughts??
Cat
Roar Guru
Everyone starts the season 0-0 0% too.
brian
Guest
but isnt % more unfair given some get to play essendon twice. Also some teams play more at the dry etihad which further skews the fairness of %. h2h whilst someone got home advantage at least they both started the game at 0-0 in the same conditions. It would also add some spice to games between teams near each other on the ladder
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
Could be a good speculator, maybe hoped for better odds though.
gameofmarks
Roar Guru
I would play Jack on the wing a la Nick Reiwoldt.
Lroy
Guest
I think its one of those games where you give McGovern an extended run at CHF and you get Jack Darling to have a run in the backline... personally I think a straight swap for the pair of them is in order. The Guv looks like he can kick a few goals each game.. while our man Jack is a bit up and down at the moment, the change might be good for both of them.
Aransan
Guest
Teams running ahead of the ball deserve to get punished. Don't count your fur coats until you catch your racoons.
Aransan
Guest
I got $14 but with WC to win.
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
I wonder what the odds are for Essendon to be in front at half-time?
TomC
Roar Guru
I think you might be overselling how poorly the Suns are travelling. They've been reasonable lately.
Ryan Buckland
Expert
Yeah I saw that, and I reckon it's a massive mispricing by the market, personally. If I were a betting man, I'd have some money on the Saints straight up for sure. I'd guess it's based on St Kilda's very poor travelling record in recent times, but I think it undersells how well St Kilda are travelling right now, and how poorly the Suns are travelling. It should be a close game, but I'd expect the Saints to get home.
Paul D
Roar Guru
Because the teams might have only played each other once during the season, so their ladder position could come down to a single game where one side had a home ground advantage, if you base it on head to head record during that season. That's far more unfair and random than percentage, which at least is a sampling across all 23 rounds.
Brian
Guest
Netflix with the missus or bed for Poland v Portugal. I can't see any interest in this. Maybe Kennedy kicking 13+ goals but that's not really feasible without NicNat. On another matter given the unfair fixture which determines % why don't the AFL change the rules so that should two teams finish on an equal number of points their head to head record determines their ladder position.