We’re in something of a holding pattern in the AFL season.
Yes, there is plenty of jockeying for positions to be done as it appears that the top five are trying to fit into four, and Ryan told us last week how crucial August would be in forming the top end of the ladder.
Hawthorn are wobblier than they were a week ago, albeit their loss to Melbourne was, like Paul Keating’s recession, the one they had to have. There will likely be two or three more yet before their season ends a win or two short of a fourth straight premiership.
Sydney, Adelaide, GWS and Geelong are trying to out-percentage each other in the race for home finals and the double chance. The Cats have the friendliest draw from here, but are conceding the others a start.
West Coast, the Western Bulldogs and North have fallen off the pace, the latter two due to injury, and are unlikely to seriously challenge. The Dogs are still the most likely to wreak some September havoc.
So, while Ryan projected forward a month in his aforementioned article last week, why don’t we project forward a year and think about what a ladder might look like?
St Kilda are currently in ninth, and a good chance to stay there, but have also laid enough foundations that we can demand finals from them next year. Wins of substance over Geelong and the Bulldogs are their flag in the ground. Interstate humiliations like those at the hands of West Coast and Adelaide must become a thing of the past.
They can rightly measure themselves against the Demons for overall progress, and have beaten them twice this year.
Melbourne’s win over Hawthorn on the weekend, sans Jesse Hogan, was also a landmark victory that must make them declare anything less than finals in 2017 is a fail.
They count GWS as a scalp this season, along with single figure losses to North in Tasmania and West Coast in Perth. A couple of commanding wins over similarly placed Collingwood gives them a nice bunny heading into next year.
Can Port push back into the eight after a couple of absent year, with the return of Paddy Ryder? They need to rid themselves of their multiple personality disorder first.
Pies fans will be calling for the head of Nathan Buckley even more loudly than they are now if they don’t see their team in the finals race. Most importantly, we want to see an injury-free Collingwood for a full season to get an answer to whether Buckley can truly coach.
There is a gun to Damien Hardwick’s head at Richmond, and a growing group of supporters has become disenfranchised as he wastes away the careers of Alex Rance, Jack Riewoldt, Dustin Martin, Brett Deledio and Trent Cotchin with a conservative game style and paralysis-by-analysis stats-heavy coaching method.
If he can’t release the shackles, his team won’t climb back up the ladder, and he will likely be out of a job by this time next year.
Gold Coast has shown enough spirit in the face of adversity in the last two months to suggest they can also be a player next year. Led by Tom Lynch, they have put together some impressive football without a first-choice engine room.
The Suns trade period is going to be fascinating and defining.
Carlton are still evolving, but have offered supporters hope. Fremantle should be aiming to bounce back off an aggressive post-season if they can get a healthy list next year.
Essendon will welcome back a yet-to-be-determined number of suspended players, plus bring in the best young player in the land, and their supporters are entitled to hope of September action with another pre-season of development into the likes of probable best and fairest Zach Merrett, along with Darcy Parish, Aaron Francis, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti and Orazio Fantasia.
Brisbane are in decay, and are almost beyond hope. A change of coach might be the tonic, as it has been for many teams in the past.
The off-season trade period promises to be hectic, and the direction of each list build will make for compelling monitoring.
Most will have North Melbourne falling down the ladder next year. Some will have Hawthorn missing the eight. Finding others to drop out may not be so easy to find. West Coast will certainly want to find a few levels if they’re to stay up there.
Are Melbourne and St Kilda the best placed to climb their way in? Are Collingwood good enough if they get a healthy run at it? Might the Suns spring a great surprise, or are they another year away if Dion Prestia and Jaegar O’Meara head for the hills?
The next three weeks may tell us a bit more in regards to these questions, or they might bury some fool’s gold. There’s still plenty to be gained from monitoring the progress of the bottom teams over the last few weeks.
Macca
Guest
"My biggest fear for Carlton is the board will use its picks to become a competitive mid table side rather than a competing for a premiership one in the aim to sell memberships and stay in a job and Carlton deserve better." If that is your biggest fear than you are living a charmed life. I do love the way you find no contradiction in your thoughts " bringing in players from other clubs rather than talk of drafting as they think the list is ready to go already" and "Carlton is the board will use its picks to become a competitive mid table side rather than a competing for a premiership one in the aim to sell memberships and stay in a job". On O'meara - last year the bulldogs swapped 2 similar second round picks for pick 11 - do you think it is insane to swap pick 11 for a bloke who hasn't played football in 2 years and is currently undergoing knee surgery meaning he is no guarantee to be in full fitness round 1 next year?
Don Freo
Guest
You've never answered this question when challenged, anon. What is the point you are trying to make?
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
Alex Pearce genius (although it was r9, he played 8 games after missing r1). Glad to see you've been paying attention.
Col from Brissie
Roar Guru
"Their AFL history is tragic". 3 grand finals and 1 premiership as opposed to your clubs nil grand finals. In the 26 years of the AFL your club has finished higher on the ladder than Carlton 13 times. So if Carltons AFL history has been tragic how would you describe your clubs AFL history?
mattyb
Guest
Also Steve,hopefully McKay does play in the next couple of weeks. I can't see any example whatsoever that he shouldn't play and get a taste of the level he will need to strive to get to. I don't know why the rainbow guy hasn't had a taste so if he isn't currently injured I'd like to see him play also.
mattyb
Guest
Steve,I certainly agree these are good players. Carlton need to go and get some future great,champion player to become the great club they were in in VFL again and these players are in the draft. My biggest fear for Carlton is the board will use its picks to become a competitive mid table side rather than a competing for a premiership one in the aim to sell memberships and stay in a job and Carlton deserve better. These players will swallow up picks when there are future better players out there. Talk of Omeara for a couple of second round picks is insane. Further talk some of the players Carlton still need to delist have trade value equally so. Carlton need to draft now and recruit when things are looking good then reset for contention. I still think there is some anger in Carlton fans that people dare question they are not the most terrific thing still. There AFL record is tragic,I still think the fans and club have a bit of realisation and healing before true patience can come into the equation.
Darren L
Roar Rookie
The club has been consistent in messaging and intent all year and the supporters (in the main) seem to be onboard. They brought in players from other clubs this year as well as the draft and will do the same next year. You might recall that the Bulldogs have brought in 6 players via the trade period in the past 3 years. What's with some of you Bulldogs supporters and Carlton - are you afraid of the future or just can't let go of the past?
anon
Guest
No, Michael Johnson went down in round 5.
steve
Guest
TomC, Its not that anyone is discounting a player from the Northern States, everyone knows that O'Meara is a quality player, what is the massive question mark was not that its two years out with injury, its the type of injury he is trying to come back from. The patella tendon injury is really tough to come back from and in some cases, is actually a career ender. Its actually easier to come back from an ACL than the patella tendon. He lasted what, two half games in the NEAFL, and is now back in for surgery again and wont see the season out. He is actually a massive gamble for any club to offer a top ten pick and the money his management are reportedly asking for - $750, 000 a season.
Ian Montgomery
Roar Pro
I would say Melbourne is the most likely. Clearly all the teams who missed out have some holes to fill but I think the Dees have the closest to a complete list. Their midfield depth is quite impressive with the likes of Jones, Vince, Dom Tyson, Viney, Petracca, Oliver, Salem and Brayshaw providing plenty of cover, not to mention Melksham who is due to play next season. On the weekend they also had Neal-Bullen, Grimes, Trengrove, Matt Jones and Michie all rack up 30+ possessions in the VFL. The forward line is developing nicely leaving only their key defenders a bit light on - Tom McDonald is a top line key defender but they lack support in this area. Bringing in a Brown (Mitch or Nathan), Sam Reid or maybe Marchbank could help bolster their defensive stocks and help them push towards the finals next year. While the Saints are on the rise I think they lack the midfield ball winners to challenge for a finals spot. Outside of Stevens and Montagna they lack midfielders who can win the ball with guys like Billings, Newnes, Armitage and Dunstan rarely gathering more than mid 20's. Seb Ross has had some big games this year but needs to produce on a more consistent basis. They need Nathan Freeman on the park and to land at least two more up and coming mids who know how to win the ball to be a challenger. The only other team I think has a chance of jumping back up are the Dockers. Like all the other teams outside the 8 they have their issues but with a healthy list they still boast a quality group of mids in Mundy, Fyfe, the Hill brothers, Neale and Bennell. If Barlow continues in his defensive run with role and they add Cam McCarthy to Apeness and Taberner, with Walters, Ballantyne and Crozier at their feet, they are capable of jumping back up the ladder quickly. They are another team that could do with another key back, perhaps Mitch Brown, and if they can orchestrate something out of Mayne and Suban going they could have a team that is finals bound next year. All the others may as well plan for 2018 and beyond. Of course the other part of the equation is who drops out and I agree the Kangaroos and the Eagles appear most likely, mainly due to the lack of class and depth in their midfields - too much left to too few. Given the nature of free agency and player movement these days anything is possible regarding a clubs capacity to fill holes and upgrade their lists and I think this is where the Hawks have proven very adept at bringing in other established players to regenerate there playing stocks and with some pending retirements I think any calls that they will drop out of the 8 are way off the mark.
Macca
Guest
TomC - I am not the only one saying a top 10 pick is too high - 2 years out of the game is a long time and teams can go to the draft this year and pick up a Jaeger O'meara with a top 10 pick without the injury history. As I say above I would be happy for the blues to give up what they did for the bulldogs number 11 pick last year but I would be very unhappy to see them use what looks like pick 5 - still valuable but a top 10 pick is just too much.
Aransan
Guest
I wouldn't give a top 10 pick for O'Meara, he could be anything but he seems too much of an injury risk for me -- I wonder how the medical experts would assess his condition, that surely will determine his draft pick value.
Col from Brissie
Roar Guru
What we also see Wilson is a team accepting and playing a much better game plan than the preceding 3 years - take a bow Brendan Bolton. He has made the environment at the club much better than it has been for a while, obviously from what he learnt at his time at the Hawks.
TomC
Roar Guru
The idea of any club getting O'Meara for something less than a top ten pick is flat out insane. Victorian clubs have gotten used to reaping a bounty of discounted players from the northern states, and supporters just naturally assume that now they only have to give up a fraction of what these players are worth. Macca, the idea that there is no one who'd give up a top ten pick for O'Meara because after two superb years he's had two years of injury problems is an absurd fantasy.
Don Freo
Guest
Yep...if it is corrective. No if it is an amputation.
Macca
Guest
DOn - Last year the dockers got Bennell and pick 22 for 16 and 35 - Bennell is also a gun but came with risks which meant the Docker got him for next to nothing. O'Meara doesn't have the same level of risk but is far from risk free which means his value will be discounted (especially as he no doubt nominate who the Suns have to deal with) - there is no way a team will give up a top 10 pick for a bloke who hasn't played for 2 years.
steve
Guest
Don, I wouldn't give up a first rounder for O'Meara, there has to be major question marks over him, I'm not sure any club will offer up a first round pick for him. A couple of second round players, or a second rounder and player/s is the most I think the Suns will get for him. There is probably only a couple of players I would want that I would consider giving up this year's or next year's first round pick. Id give it up for Hurley and Id give it up for Tom Mitchell. Ideally, in a perfect world though, Id love us to bag at least another first round pick somehow this year so we don't have to give up our number 4 pick.
Wilson
Roar Guru
Don you would give pick 3 for him even with him about to go in to surgery again?
Wilson
Roar Guru
and there is I think the big differance from other times, Carlton supporters are backing the rebuild and are know that it need to be done if they want to be at the top of there game again.
Don Freo
Guest
I would happily give #3 draft pick for O'Meara. I don't care that he hasn't played. He'll be fresh. Jaeger is a genius.