Both the Broncos and the Cowboys have endured form slumps in the past couple of months, after clearly being the best two teams in the first half of the season.
It’s not unusual in a long NRL season, but how can we evaluate these two premiership contenders coming into the finals?
The first thing to realise for both sides is that it’s good to know you have the potential to play as they did in the first half of the season.
Finals footy is different, and two sides like this will be on their games, win or lose, in the playoff rounds.
For the Broncos, the best part about the past couple of weeks has been halves Ben Hunt and Anthony Milford. During the difficult middle part of their season, Milford, in particular, was way off the pace.
He was the best player in the comp at the start of the season. The Broncos were hot. But after setting such a cracking pace in the first ten rounds of the comp, he went off the boil.
There is still a big question mark around their attack. They rely a lot on Darius Boyd, though they’ve shown signs in recent weeks that they’re getting closer.
Realistically, it’ll end up coming down to their forwards. Their last five minutes against the Dogs last Thursday were the best they’ve been in weeks. It was good to see them fire up.
Canterbury have struggled a bit recently, but you still have to beat them. They always compete. Brisbane had them covered for 80 minutes last round, and while they probably wished they had beaten the Dogs by more, they’re better for that performance.
Though they are coming from the bottom of the eight – fifth being the highest possible spot they can finish – I wouldn’t write Brisbane off completely. But I wouldn’t be that confident they’ll do damage either.
On the other hand, I can see North Queensland beating the Bulldogs this weekend and getting into the top four, from where they’re capable of winning the premiership again. (Click to Tweet)
Like the Broncos, they lost a bit of spark in the middle of the year.
It’s understandable. During a long season, you can search for an edge or whatever other reason for answers. And like Cronulla, if you keep trying to play the way you’ve always played, it can hurt rather than help you.
But the Cowboys got back on track the other night with a strong win – even if it was over an ordinary Warriors, they’ll feel good about that result.
This weekend’s game at Belmore is a playoff for fourth spot on the ladder. While the fourth-placed Bulldogs are on 32 points to the fifth-place Cowboys’ 30, North Queensland’s superior for-and-against record – 205 compared to Canterbury’s 85 – means the winner is guaranteed two weeks of finals footy.
And if the Cowboys make the top four, come semis time they could do plenty of damage.
They’ve been there before, so they know how to lift for a finals game. There will be no relying too much on what they’ve done, rather than what they have to do.
If they can come out of this period with another win this week, having worked out a few areas, they’ll feel confident of making a huge impact over the next five weeks.
Key man Johnathan Thurston looks alright. For a guy who plays every game, plays Origin, plays everything, he could have lost some rhythm after picking up a little hammy injury.
He will still be trying to get his groove back. And if – more like when – he does get it back, the Cowboys have the potential to win the comp again.
I’m not as sure the same can be said for the Broncos, but with the master coach and a host of celebrated Origin stars, they’re lurking.
Rob
Guest
Travelled to England for WCC then got beat early by full strength Eels. Lost to firing Sharks 13-10 with Morgan having shocker giving up an 80m intercept with try line open and then hold down penalty deciding game late? Tigers and full strength Roosters back to back with players flat. Been in most games just not executing as well. Feldt plays a key role with kick offs and drop outs I believe. Coote was doing the job in his absence and his game suffered through that period?
scott
Guest
Plus the dogs aren't required to pass the ball backwards which is a pretty decent advantage.
PNG Broncos fan88
Guest
3-8 record this year, off a last start loss to the 15th placed team. Dogs are specials tomorrow on a wet track at Belmore.
PNG Broncos fan88
Guest
JW, you got it down to a pat. Gillett missing from the defensive line was sapping Hunt's confidence in attack. Milford has been trying but with Kahu, Reed and the forward pack not the same for that period. People who keep saying Milf was off the boil we're feeding off League opinion columns and not really watching the Broncos games.
up in the north
Roar Rookie
Why is it that there's all this speculation about the Cowbies ability to go on the road. I thought we had put those myths to bed last year.
The Barry
Roar Guru
I think only one of the Broncs or Cows will make the GF. Obviously only one, at best, will make the top 4. Whoever doesn't will get a home semi but will then have to win two games on the road to even make the GF. It will be a big ask.
Rob
Guest
Dogs are rubbish and have been for a while. They have no dummy half and a half back that goes missing. They have terrific balling playing forwards but their attitude to doing simple stuff like kick chase and backing up the ball carrier is non exsistent. Reynolds, Jackson, Graham and Morris boy try. They can play patches of good footy but can't sustain it because they have passangers across the park. Charging up one out without support and depth is a waste of time. Unfortunatly they lack the effort to do the work? They have no excuses for not beating the Cowboys on a short turn around with conditions to suit. If they can't use a 36-0 thrashing for motivation then they have heart issues?
Fish
Guest
The Dogs will be hard to beat at Belmore. It's like Leichardt Oval, Its worth at least ten points. Having said this the Dogs will be without their only X Factor player in Kasiano. This fella does a lot of damage off the bench, and is instrumental in their attack with his seemingly effortless offloads and silky passing skills. They will miss the big bloke tremendously. This game will be tighter than the last time they met but I think the Cowboys will be too strong toward the back end of the game. This premiership is wide open, and any team that makes the eight has got as good a chance as any in the top four. Unfortunately it may well come down to the officials and how they run the games. Those that allow the wrestle to those that don't. If the wrestle is allowed you may well see a Storm versus Sharks final. If it is not allowed, then Raiders versus Panthers may well be on the cards. What an attacking spectacle that could be. I love finals footy.
Jara W
Guest
Going to keep saying it... I don't think Milford was playing all that differently during the Broncos dry run. You just can't play his style with no momentum and no support players. He was getting rushed with numbers. The Eels hung off him and invited him to play a blinder. Hunt is another story though. He was extremely low on form. If he can replicate that effort against the Bulldogs he will give the Broncos a massive boost.
Brian
Guest
How would the Raiders go if Hodgson broke a leg? What about the cows and JT, Storm and Cronk/ JT, Sharks and Maloney, Panthers and Moyland, etc?
Griffo
Guest
From a purely mathematical perspective the top 4 teams are 3 times more likely to win the premiership than 5th to 8th, their chances being 3/16 and 1/16 respectively. Now to determine the actual probability throw in a more favourable fixturing, home ground advantage, rests and the fact that teams that finish higher are generally better than those below, and you start to see why teams outside the top 4 tend to struggle.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Milford was outstanding against the Eels but I didn't think he did that much against the Dogs. The excitement levels go up when he touches the ball but that's because we know what he's capable of rather than anything he did. He didn't really break the line or create much. Most of his metres came from recovering a fumble and shooting upfield untouched. Hunt outplayed him by a fair bit.
Albo
Guest
It's really still a lucky dip at this stage until we complete the final two rounds, and we see who finishes where, who gets a home final, who is on what side of the draw ? Some teams are firing, some are in a slump and some are hoping to turn it all around this week. But in assessing the likelihood of success for the Cowboys & Broncos , I am not as sure as Ivan. He may just have been sent out here with a QLD diversion strategy ? The Cowboys have a tough one at Belmore on Friday followed by the final game at home to the possibly then desperate Titans. I suspect they would win at least one of these matches, to end up in 4th or 5th. spot. But I give the Broncos little chance overall, unless they can beat the Storm in Melbourne on Friday night ( and I think they did exactly that at this time last year ?). If not however, come Sunday, should the Panthers beat the Titans , the Broncos could well have slipped to 7th on the table behind the Panthers on points differential, with a final tough match at home against the now firing Roosters , and with the Panthers at home to Manly in the last round. The Broncos could well be facing an away final ( 6th v 7th) possibly at Penrith the team that has beaten them twice this year already and they appear to be still improving. So I think it will be a tough ask to see the Broncos threaten into October. But who knows ? The key matches this weekend The Cowboys v Dogs, The Titans v Panthers, & The Storm v Broncos ( and possibly even the Warriors v Tigers) will be fascinating and it probably still won't clarify too much but to just make most of the final round matches even more crucial yet. What an exciting season this one has become !
steveng
Roar Rookie
There's always the first time, never say never.
spruce moose
Guest
Actually, just to throw the spanner in the works for both of you, that was one utterly bizarre finals series. Canberra (who finished second) got to play Brisbane (who finished 3rd) in week 1 of the finals at Lang Park!!! Newcastle played North Sydney at Parramatta. The decision to play these games at those locations was objectively ludicrous! And we reckon the Broncos get the golden run now...
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
Lovey You are right in that it is not "insurmountable" in theory, but to date has proven to be statistically insurmountable. Another problem with the Premiers going back to back, aside from it not happening for over 20 years, is that they have to travel to the UK prior to kick off and no team has done that and won. The Cowboys have the same list as last year so lets see how they go.
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
Hi Magic, With respect, you are wrong. The major advantage under the current system is "home ground advantage" and in 1995 it did not exist, unless your home ground was the SFS. ie the Broncos would have to travel to Sydney etc.
Birdy
Guest
All i can say is , its that time of year again when most of us have to pick our second favourite team. My tigers have a slimmer than slim chance of playing in september so here goes. Not being the one to jump on board favourites my first pick is Titans to set the foundation of the leagues newest super club. And im serious. Next cab off the rank is the Sharkies to break their duck. And finally, everyone loves a successful green machine and dont you just love the Viking clap. Like to see that on GF day
Nat
Roar Guru
Yeah I agree on the latter Scott. Sounds left field but at least all teams get the first week. If successful, expect the NRL to pick it up. I guess my point in the first instance is this year there are a few anomalies that, providing they survive week 1, can very well take it all.
The Magic Man
Roar Rookie
1995 ARL season actually proves it's not impossible, albeit rare. The then 8 team finals used the same structured semi final format as we have now. In that year the Canterbury Bulldogs won from 6th position defeating the minor premiers Manly.