Close but no cigar: Which NRL teams are another year away from contention?

In the third instalment of my season preview series, I delve into four ascending teams whose best football is still another 12 months away.

Sydney Roosters
There’s no sugar-coating it, last season was an unmitigated disaster. Think Fukushima meets Zoolander 2. Everything that could go wrong did, from injuries, the loss of key personnel, off-field distractions, contract dramas and generally sloppy rugby league.

To go from three consecutive minor premierships to a full-blown disaster is unacceptable, and will be tough for the Roosters to swallow. But these aren’t exactly uncharted waters.

Since 2007, the Roosters have missed the finals on four other occasions. For three of those, they rebounded the following season to make the top eight. In fact, the Chooks made the grand final in 2010 after receiving the wooden spoon the previous year.

This all suggests that despite their atrocious record last season, this isn’t a club in need of a Bondi rescue.

The roster is absolutely loaded, boasting a formidable mix of state and international representatives, talented youngsters and Mitchell Aubusson.

Their spine rates as one of the best in the NRL, and coach Trent Robinson will enter 2017 with a Mitchell Pearce-sized chip on his shoulder.

In fact, Robinson is so confident of redemption that he turned Roosters HQ into a veritable halfway house, handing second chances to the likes of Paul Carter, Liam Knight and Zane Tetevano. Each brings talent, baggage and Aerogard in equal measure, having been sacked from their previous clubs.

However, Robinson is a renowned disciplinarian and a capable man-manager, allowing him to make the kind of low-risk, high-reward investments that other clubs shy away from.

But 2017 is not about who the Roosters signed, although Luke Keary will prove a handy addition. Rather, this year is all about the return of those already on the roster.

Pearce is a year removed from his canine shenanigans, and reports abound of his rapid maturity under Craig’s Wing. Boyd Cordner and Jared Waerea-Hargreaves are fit and healthy for Round 1, and Dylan Napa has removed the crowbar from his temporal lobe.

The Roosters are simply too well coached and have too much talent to flounder for another season. Perhaps they’re not ready for a tilt at the Premiership, but the finals should be a realistic goal.

South Sydney Rabbitohs
South Sydney has been the most disappointing side in the competition over the last two seasons. Their transformation from competition heavyweight to featherweight is a tale best told by the Biggest Loser.

For the first time since 2011, the Rabbitohs missed the finals last year, leaving Michael Maguire’s job less secure than Mike Baird at Wentworth Park. But despite the sharp decline in results, South Sydney showed enormous faith in Madge, re-signing him until the end of 2019.

South Sydney have reached the depths of their parabola. They have too much talent and experience at key positions to continue keeping Newcastle company at the bottom of the ladder.

Yes, their forwards were very disappointing last season, but look for them to bounce back. The Burgess twins were nicked up for much of the year, as was John Sutton, while big Sam was still acclimatising after his relaxing Bath.

All four are injury free and primed for a massive year. And the addition of Robbies Rochow and Farah should add the 30-odd foot of grunt Russell Crowe has been singing out for.

The backline looks equally impressive. Halfback Adam Reynolds benefited immensely from his debut Origin series. While his health is always a concern, the nuggetty inkwell gives the Bunnies the most accurate kicking game in the competition.

Greg Inglis remains Greg Inglis, despite reports of his demise. Alex Johnston and Aaron Gray provide try scoring firepower on the edges. And Bryson Goodwin, terribly underrated and overlooked throughout his career, provides injury cover for the entire back five

Do I think South Sydney can win the competition? Absolutely not. But they’re not as far away as their recent form suggests.

If the Burgei can recapture their 2014 form and Farah can fill the void left by Issac Luke, this could be a very difficult team to defend in 2017.

Parramatta Eels
Most Parramatta fans I’ve spoken to see the club as a phoenix, rising from the ashes of last season’s garbage fire, ready to soar majestically once more.

I prefer to view the Eels as a gangrenous wound. Much of the toxic flesh has been surgically removed, saving the club from mortal peril, but Parramatta still needs time to heal.

That healing process began with the hiring of Bernie Gurr as club CEO. Gurr is an experienced rugby league administrator who isn’t burdened with the factional baggage and malignant self-interest that plagued Parramatta for more than a generation.

For a multitude of reasons, the side that takes the field in Round 1 will barely resemble the squad that offered so much promise only 12 months ago.

Along with the departure of false idol Kieran Foran, the deciduous Eels were forced to shed a host of talented players to squeeze under the salary cap, including budding stars Nathan Peats and Junior Paulo.

Add in the loss of Michael Gordon, Danny Wicks and Luke Kelly, the retirement of Anthony Watmough, and the uncertainty surrounding Peni Terepo and Kenny Edwards, and you could be forgiven for asking who was left on the team.

Despite these heavy losses, the Eels’ roster is still in surprisingly decent shape. The backline is richly endowed with attacking weapons, and some of the forwards are downright terrifying.

But one can’t simply wipe away the mess of last season like grease on an Ajax commercial. Despite their obvious talent, concerns still linger around many of Parramatta’s star players.

Can the team rely on Corey Norman, knowing he’s a Snapchat away from a Kate McClymont exclusive? Do Beau Scott and Frank Pritchard have anything left in the tank? Will Clinton Gutherson and Bevan French handle the added pressure? And can Semi Radradra remain focused?

So long as key players remain healthy and avoid Sons of Anarchy reruns on Netflix, Brad Arthur will have his men pushing for a top eight finish.

However, with inexperience and uncertainty along the spine and limited depth across the squad, the Eels are still another season away from competing with the NRL’s elite.

Penrith Panthers
Gus was right, and we were wrong. It hurts to admit it, but there you are. In a sport where players, coaches and administrators are conditioned to taking it one week at a time, he opted to play the long game.

Gould’s philosophy was very internally focussed. He wanted to capitalise on Penrith’s massive junior catchment and develop local youngsters into NRL-calibre players.

Taking an almost agricultural approach, the administrator turned agronomist surveyed the fallowed lands at Pepper Stadium, and didn’t like what he saw. So he doused the roster with Round-Up and cultivated a new crop of talented juniors.

So far, so good. Matt Moylan, Bryce Cartwright, Nathan Clearly, Reagan Campbell-Gillard, Dallin Watene-Zelezniak – these are all local kids that now form the core of the senior side.

All are relatively young, and still have their best football in front of them. And from all reports, there are plenty more ripening on the vine at the Panthers’ new $22 million greenhouse.

After a strong finish to 2016, the recruitment of James Tamou and Mitch Rein, and the return from injury of Te Maire Martin, Penrith are the hot team heading into the season. But much like Joffrey Baratheon, people have crowned them prematurely.

Martin and Cleary have enormous potential but are still very inexperienced, with only 21 games of first grade between them. The substantial expectations placed on this pair are reminiscent of Mitchell Moses and Luke Brooks.

It took the Tiger cubs the best part of three years to really hit their stride, and some would argue that Brooks is still a work in progress. Relying on a couple of kids to carry the team has worked in the past, but for every Ash Taylor, there are five Jarrod Mullens.

Penrith will enjoy a strong season capped by a second straight finals appearance, but their best football is another 12 months away.

Inexperience will be tested in big games, and with so many players still physically maturing, injury could again prove a deciding factor. Look for the Panthers to have a red hot crack in 2018.

Next week I’ll be rounding out my season preview series with a look at four teams likely to get their coaches fired in 2017.