Memories of the Brisbane premiership three-peat from earlier this century dim with every passing year.
The Lions have finished higher than tenth only once in the last 12 seasons, and have finished no higher than twelfth in the last seven years. You’ll get long odds of them breaking out of that bracket in 2017.
Brisbane are one of only two sides to hit this year under the charge of a new coach, the other being Melbourne, who are implementing their Paul Roos-to-Simon Goodwin succession plan. Chris Fagan, thus, is the only coach taking on a job and a list with completely fresh eyes and mind.
Brisbane has arguably the most undecided best 22 in the competition. They had a look at 40 players at senior level last year and with the youngest and most inexperienced list in the league, they are in full re-build mode.
Here is an approximation of what Fagan might have to work with if all his players remain fit and healthy, which was a challenge in itself during the Justin Leppitsch years.
Brisbane Lions’ best 22
| B | Darcy Gardiner | Jack Frost | Marco Paparone |
| HB | Tom Cutler | Harris Andrews | Sam Mayes |
| C | Daniel Rich | Dayne Beams | Mitch Robinson |
| HF | Tom Bell | Daniel McStay | Lewis Taylor |
| F | Allen Christensen | Josh Schache | Eric Hipwood |
| Foll | Stef Martin | Tom Rockliff | Dayne Zorko |
| Int | Ryan Bastinac | Rhys Mathieson | Ben Keays | Hugh McLuggage |
Emergencies: Michael Close, Ryan Lester, Claye Beams
Names not displayed above are Rohan Bewick, Ryan Harwood and Josh Walker. Add those to the likes of Ryan Lester and Claye Beams as emergencies, and you have a pile of dead wood in the all-important mid-20s age bracket.
Can Chris Fagan get the best out of this lot, or will their cards be marked early, and chances given to the unproven youth?
As we have known for some time now, Brisbane have some experienced talent through the midfield, and a series of key position players, in their very early 20s, at either end of the ground.
The younger key position generation is, experience-wise, led by Daniel McStay (41 games) and Harris Andrews (36), and is also comprised Josh Schache (17), Michael Close (17), Jono Freeman (14), Eric Hipwood (10), Matthew Hammelmann (9) and Sam Skinner, who was cruelly denied a debut last year.
A group of footballers doesn’t come much rawer than what we see above, but all have shown more than glimpses of talent in their brief senior showings to date.
The senior players will carry the midfield, and they have multiple players who could lay claim to being in the top 50 in the competition.
Dayne Beams was on track to become an all-time great, and hopefully he can still find his best football after being hit hard by injuries in recent seasons. Dayne Zorko is a triple-threat gun with his knack for finding the ball, sticking tackles and hitting the scoreboard.
Tom Rockliff is sometimes maligned for winning too much of the ball, but there have to be worse crimes than that on an AFL field. He leaves it all out there every week, and you’d rather have him in your team than not. A career year might just be in the offing too.
Daniel Rich will continue to launch his left foot missiles, even if we wish it would happen more often. Mitch Robinson’s midfield cannonball routine will be performed again, even though he has more to his game than that.
The supporting cast through the middle is led by Ryan Bastinac, who finished seventh in the best and fairest in his first year as a Lion after 120 games with the Kangaroos. Tom Bell had an impact when available, and he’ll be looking to average 20 touches a game and kick 30 goals for the year.
Two first-year players that impressed at Brisbane last year were the controversial Rhys Mathieson, and fellow 20-year-old Ben Keays. Both had more contested possessions than uncontested, which is a great sign they’ve got a thirst for the contest. It’s the first thing you want when looking to improve a struggling side.
Stef Martin stamped himself an All-Australian contender in 2015, but couldn’t back-up similar results in 2016. This wasn’t helped by being knocked into a parallel universe by Steven May in Round 4 against the Gold Coast, and he’ll be looking to bounce back.
Goals look like they’ll be hard to come by as the young key forwards learn their craft. Allen Christensen and Lewis Taylor will need to create chances and then take them when they come.
It’s unlikely the Lions will be as offensively minded this season. The usual imprimatur of a new coach taking over a bad team is to shore up the defensive side of the game. Given Brisbane gave up the third-most points against of any side in the last 20 years in 2016, we can assume it will be a priority for Chris Fagan.
The Lions’ backline will be populated by honest battlers and good ordinary players, alongside the talent mentioned above. Fagan may look to put some polish back there, and sometimes players just click under a new coach. It will be interesting to see who can make a quantum leap under his tutelage.
Fagan, renowned as a developer of young talent, is on the record as demanding a selfless brand of football from his players. If he has set up an environment where young players can thrive, who knows what they will be capable of.
Certainly, Hugh McCluggage has the profile of a first-year player ready to have an impact and looked the part in his first pre-season game. He is one of seven draftees from the 2015-16 AFL national drafts that we are yet to see.
Carlton exceeded all external expectations under Brendon Bolton last year, and Brisbane fans will no doubt be hoping for a similar story at their club. Modest hopes, yes, but such is the position they find themselves in.
Predicted ladder spread: 15th-18th
Predicted finish: 18th
Best and fairest: Dayne Beams
Leading goalkicker: Allen Christensen
All-Australian potential: Dayne Beams, Stef Martin, Tom Rockliff, Dayne Zorko
Rising Star candidates: Jarrod Berry, Eric Hipwood, Hugh McCluggage
TomC
Roar Guru
I missed the boat on this one. It's a fair preview. If anything it's a little kind. This will be another in a long series of tough years for Brisbane, and I'm afraid they're some way from over. Cam says the young players have shown 'more than glimpses'. I think that's generous. Unfortunately time may be running out to avoid yet another wasted generation at the Lions. Most if not all of the ten players drafted to the senior list in 2012 and 2013 appear destined to be yet more of the mid-20s list cloggers just like Lester and Bewick. At least Aish has gone.
Paul D
Roar Guru
I think it’s a bit of a different case with the Lions and their flags, compared to a storied Victorian club with a century of tradition – I think it is true to say that the 3 flags were appreciated less by Brisbane fans (the Fitzroy fans are a different story) then they would have been had they been won by any other club who has been wandering the desert in thirst for a lot longer. In hindsight the 3 flags came in a rush, when the club was barely out of adolescence and it now appears clear that quite a few of the fans making the trek to the ground during those years had limits to the support or devotion they had towards the club when it wasn’t doing well. I think in time if we do stick with 18 teams you’re right about contending being a currency of its own – even if it was a totally even premiership share that’s still only one flag roughly every 20 years, and you know there’s no way known that is going to happen anyway. I fully expect to see 4-5 clubs with 40-50 year waits for a flag by the time I’m retired and doddering around my local shopping centre being old and confused. For me, it has only been the last two years that I’ve really got down on the Lions prospects – witnessing what appears to be an unbridgeable gulf between us and the top 8 year after year has a futility all of its own, and really, there’s limits to how much you can go round telling people “oh we used to be good 15 years ago” - the more you talk about the past the more you betray your embarrassment about the present and that you have nothing good to say about the future.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
I guess my whole life I've learnt to enjoy footy without the flags. I've never had the memory of flags to sustain me through the lean years. I get a lot of joy from football when the Doggies are travelling well but feel pretty disgruntled when they aren't - which I sense is something you've been feeling of late, PaulD. I guess fans of other clubs measure success only by winning the premiership title, but whilst I think that's the ultimate barometer, I think there are many broader measures. People can mock a club all they like for not winning recent premierships, but they're bloody hard to do (and getting harder, now that we have 18 teams ... and no longer allow salary cap cheating); it's much more respectable, rewarding and enjoyable to be contending for finals than to be losing week-in, week-out. Josh, you say a flag without a seconds thought, but you haven't really experienced the frustration and disillusionment of what it's like to dwell near the bottom for a sustained period without any realistic hope on the horizon. North have been up and about for the past 4 to 5 decades.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Ouch!
Martin
Guest
It would be interesting to know whether the Brisbane Lions are forecasting a budget surplus for the end of this season.
Paul D
Roar Guru
Honestly I'd take the flags too - clinging to the threepeat is one of the few pieces of flotsam and jetsam keeping the diehards afloat up here amidst the wreckage
Josh
Expert
4-5 good games in the back half of the year would be enough to win the Lions' goal-kicking.
Josh
Expert
Flag without a second's thought.
Paul D
Roar Guru
Can you hit them up about wiping the $8 million of our $13 million debt we still owe the AFL? No idea why that has not been dropped yet. If anyone can explain why the AFL would fund a new coaching roster and not drop that debt given their assets and they fact they basically own the club, I would love to know.
Mick_Lions
Guest
The Lions have 4 priorities this year: -Re-Sign Schache and McCluggage. -Get 20 more games into Keays, Mathieson, McStay, Gardiner, Hipwood and Andrews. -Upgrade their facilities. -Cull the dead wood. I wanted to do an article on the Lions but I became to degected by the mediocrity of the list. The lack of elite players is catastrophic and there's not many A graders yet. Rich has an elite kick but a B grade game and he heads a long list of 1st round draftees that haven't done much for the club. With this in mind, re-signing Schac and McCluggage are paramount for this clubs future. And if they can keep the Ballarat 4 together it'll be a bright future. For this team to lift itself out of the doldrums sooner rather than later there needs to be significant improvements in defence and the likes of McStay, Gardiner or Close. Jack Frost is a gap fill and we want a permanent solution. And having to train at 4-5 different venues is rediculous. Since the Springfield bid got canned there's been nothing else on the table. Election shafted us! Caaarn Lions!
Brian
Guest
I'd take the flags.
hal
Guest
Dave: Brisbane have a knack of avoiding the wooden spoon, yet I would argue that they have been the worst team in the competition over the last five years. They have had horror starts to the season etc. I think they will avoid the wooden spoon again this year. I also agree with Macca that Carlton will be better but they could win less games. I feel both sides will be in the bottom four but both sides will be competitive. I think Fagan will turn things around at Brisbane over the next few years by helping implement a new culture. Brisbane definitely need better training facilities. I can see the Lions winning one of the Q clashes.
Bill
Guest
Whats richmond gonna be? Ninth?
dave
Guest
Everyones on about Melbourne and the Saints,I just don't think they are that far ahead of Carlton. If you include the above3 with all these teams Pies,Port,Freo,Tiges,North,Hawks?,Geelong?Suns? fighting It out for a spot in the 8 Its not beyond the realms of possibility Carton could jag a spot. Of coarse you don't want this as it would be detrimental to your long term success because its all about the rebuild and finishing lower on the ladder plus getting that big signing(just forget about Fyfe)really sets you up for 2018 and beyond. Kind of like tanking but its called rebuild.
Macca
Guest
Dave - I can see the blues being better and winning less games than last year. If Murphy, Gibbs and Cripps all stay healthy and a couple of the youngsters pop up we might get out of the bottom 4 but I am more interested in developing individual players than I am about wins and losses this year.
dave
Guest
I don't think Carlton are going to be anywhere near as crap as people are predicting. Brisbane will also be less crap than predicted but still pretty bad. Tipping is going to be a nightmare 2017.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
Best backs? That's interesting when most of the football he's played has been off the half forward flank.
MikeBNE
Guest
I do hope this is a joke. Lester was trialled in a defensive post to hopefully replace Patfull when we lost him to GWS. It lasted about 4 games, he was utterly deplorable back there. I was a Lester fan, but recent seasons all I see is a list clogger who has a spot purely from his mature body. McLuggage will keep him out of the team.
Theeva Kumar
Roar Rookie
Lester surely is amongst the best backs the Lions have.
Theeva Kumar
Roar Rookie
lol north will suprise a few this year