In 2004 the Essendon Bombers defeated the Melbourne Demons by five points in front of 60,000 people at the MCG. They were knocked out of the finals by Geelong the next week, and have not won another finals match in the 12 AFL seasons since.
The drought has continued far longer than it ought to for any team and in 2017, the Bombers are ready to defy the odds, play finals and quite possibly win one for the first time in more than a decade.
This is a point of view that flys in the face of recent form – the Dons have finished in the lower portion of the ladder two years running, last year admittedly with the help of some significant external circumstances.
However, it’s worth noting that in 2014 the Bombers were a finals team, and might well have broken their drought if it wasn’t for a memorable second-half comeback from North Melbourne, beginning with three goals from Ben Brown and ending with two quick ones for Drew Petrie (sorry Bombers fans, I’m never not going to mention that one).
That was a year in which they were coached by Mark Thompson and it was the only year between Kevin Sheedy leaving the club at the end of 2007 and John Worsfold arriving eight years later that the Bombers had a quality coach.
Worsfold is an excellent coach and one of my personal favourites. His flame-out at the West Coast Eagles in 2013 was hard to watch, but coming back into the coaching game he has shown that he is by no means done yet.
What he achieved last year with a team that had maybe half a dozen AFL standard players in it was remarkable. The Bombers got beat, a lot, but they were still tough to play against and never dropped their heads.
The talent Worsfold will have at his disposal in 2017 compared to the season past is an exponential increase – not only do the Bombers have ten senior players back, but they’ve also added a No.1 draft pick, and all of their youth is one year more experienced.
I found their best 22 to be one of the hardest to put together this season. They’re going to have to make hard choices along the way between veterans who are returning and young kids who are ready to step up.
However, when they get the balance right they will have a team studded with stars both future and present along every line, with more depth than most, led by a coach who is hungry for success.
In the forward line Joe Daniher, who is underrated, can make a partnership with Cale Hooker, who has only spent limited time as a forward but could easily kick 50-60 goals this year. There’s a nice mix of medium and small types to work around them.
The backline, on the other hand has an All-Australian calibre defender in Michael Hurley as the lynchpin, and decent enough talent around him. Andrew McGrath will fit in here well.
The midfield then has a combination of elite young talent like Darcy Parish and Zach Merrett, coupled with plenty of veteran hands led by Dyson Heppell who is at the beginning of his best years as a footballer.
Really the only weakness is in the ruck department – Matthew Leuenberger is their best option here and they’ll be hoping he remains fit and performs well. He’s not a standout ruckman of the competition but there are worse big blokes getting a game.
They could use an extra Cale Hooker too. But who couldn’t?
It’s pretty common in the AFL to see teams have a bit of success at a time when a wave of new young talent combines with an older veteran core – this can often be short-lived, but if the list is managed well thereafter it can be the pre-cursor to future success.
A good example would be Hawthorn’s premiership success in 2008, their dip down the ladder in the years that followed, and then their return to the podium in 2013-2015. That early success was just nice timing between the youth and the old guard, then the youth became the old guard and took them there again.
To be honest it’s about where I thought the Western Bulldogs were at before September last year – and maybe it still is.
That’s an extreme example because that early burst rarely takes you as far as a flag – more likely it’s about two years of playing finals, hopefully winning one or two, then bobbing back down to later rise again.
That’s what Essendon can do this year – pop up, play finals for a little bit, and then if they’re smart enough to hold course, the young talent they have coming through now will lead them into flag contention early next decade.
There’s plenty of reasons they might not. Maybe Worsfold’s tactics won’t be enough to win and win often in today’s game. Maybe the old and the new won’t mesh as well as they could. Maybe there’s a few more eggs to break before we get an omelette.
The way I see it though, the Dons have everything they need to become a winning team this year.
Improving youth, mature veterans and no shortage of talent among either group. Elite talls at either end of the ground, and plenty of midfield depth. A club culture that showed just how rich and deeply it runs last year and a coach who knows how to take teams to September.
We’re yet to see if it will all come together, but sometimes in life and football, the pieces of the puzzle can just fall neatly into place.
For Essendon in 2017, I’m tipping they will.
Aransan
Guest
Slane, I don't have a lot of knowledge on this but can you name other major team sports around the world where players commence in the main events at 18 years of age -- even ignoring body size. The big bodied medium/fast bowlers in cricket seem to take a few years to get the strength and endurance they need. I get the impression that soccer players take a few years generally before they play in the big time. In our game it seems to me that the big players are more prone to injuries early in their careers. Many ruckmen aren't actually recruited at 18 in the draft but are expected to develop themselves in secondary competitions or are picked up as rookies. I believe it is generally accepted that bigger players take longer to grow into their bodies. Even though Weitering was the deserved first draft pick in 2015, I believe Carlton are making a mistake in playing him in their forward line at this stage in his development.
Aransan
Guest
Our game must be different. Can you name any ruckmen under the age of 20 who have played much in recent years? Tom Boyd was justifiably the number 1 draft pick in his year and played well in the 2016 finals but spent a number of games playing in the VFL last year.
Slane
Guest
I know you are a big proponent of the idea that bigger players take longer to develop but big players in every other sport on the planet seems to get along just fine.
me too
Roar Rookie
Sounds like Port supporters after 2014. You'll be waiting awhile yet.
Jakarta Fan
Roar Rookie
The many comments about Essendon having "half a team" returning seems way off the mark. At the start of the season there maybe 5 or 6 of the returning players who make the team. So maybe "a quarter of a team" and I think that will make a huge difference over the season. The other 4-5 will have to re-earn a place and fight of the developing young brigade, among who is some excellent, yet inexperienced talent. The bonus "finds" of last season among the mature players, i.e. Kelly, Dea, and Brown, complemented by the young "finds" like Zac Merrett, Hartley, Fantasia, Parish, Laverde, and Langford, added to other young developing and new players like Francis, McKenna, Long, Ridley, McGrath, Begley, then you realize Essendon will not be dependent on 10 returning players. Maybe 4 of the returning players are critical (Heppell, Watson, Hurley and Hooker) and a couple of the others "very valuable" (Colyer, Bellchambers, Myers, Stanton) but having the balance between the old, the returning, the new, the developing etc should make the Bombers a much stronger and competitive team. Having access to "the 10" coming in and out during the season should avoid any major problems of soft-tissue problems while maintaining a healthy balance. However, the first 3 weeks of th season could prove us all wrong - in either direction. Let's enjoy the ride!
Aransan
Guest
Daniher is a different type of player, with his size he was always going to take time to develop and only now is he starting to come into his prime.
Slane
Guest
Is 43 goals good? J-Roo kicked 70 odd when he won his first Coleman with a terrible Tiger team.
Aransan
Guest
Josh, Daniher's inaccuracy in front of goals is a real problem not revealed in his ratio of goals to behinds as many of his kicks finish up out of bounds on the full. I am sure he can improve in this area but he is not a natural goal kicker due to his complex technique. I also wonder if he has been stubborn about seeking help with his goal kicking. With improved goal kicking and better delivery into the forward line he has enormous upside.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Fair enough. I think he's rated about at his level, I think his other attributes get praised enough. How close was he to making your 50? He was on my 90-odd man short list.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Haha. I'm not sure if I'd used it in any previews. I probably should have used it 22 times in North's...
Josh
Expert
First use of jobber for 2017? It's good to have footy back.
Josh
Expert
Too much is made of his inaccuracy in front of goal, distracting from his many fine attributes, I reckon. 43 goals last year is no small achievement when you consider the quality of the midfield that was delivering the ball to him. Someone like Darcy Moore for example I think gets much more praise while having achieved really little in comparison.
Josh
Expert
That's a good point Cat, though most players who miss a year of footy don't do it for the reasons these guys have, and a team doesn't usually have so many at once. It's very much new territory with little established logic to predict upon, I think. All I can say for sure is they will be hungry!
Josh
Expert
It would be an incredible story to see them play and win finals this year - you'd never hear a Dons fan stop talking about it.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Also, I think where Josh sees talent, I see jobbers. Interesting to see who becomes what in that regard.
Cameron Rose
Expert
I disagree, but playing a good strength Geelong side this week will probably give us some indication. Curious, what makes you say Joe Daniher is underrated?
Darren L
Roar Rookie
True on the gelling together - it's more the combination of players coming together for the first time, half with a new coach and the fact the new players are likely to be a bit rusty - both physically and game ready. All up it would be amazing to see them make finals. I'm also not sure they have the talent across the board to this - but that's just a different opinion on the playing group.
bobburra
Guest
I don't think the Bombers will be a "force" this year as they in effect have two "teaching clinics" going on at once. One with the young group of last years playing with "top up" players and learning the game, now they have to do again with the returning group, the second is of course is that senior players returning after a year out have to learn how to play with these 'kids". I also think the Bombers" may get off to a good start, however toward the end of the season the rigours of the season may begin to take effect on those returning players. Having said that I fear that 2018 could well be a damaging year for not only Essendon but for all other clubs, they could well be just that good. Being the Carlton supporter that I am, all I can say is they will probably get ahead of us and stretch the margin. So maybe there will be some good come out of the mess that was Essendon of the last few years. As far the those players returning are concerned, rightly or wrongly they have "served their time" and I for one will challenge anybody who is low enough to call them "drug cheats" now. That side of it is over, lets just let them play football and enjoy the game.
Josh
Expert
Won't complain if that happens!
Cat
Roar Guru
Good point Josh, I'll counter with, how long does it typically take a player to get back to their best form after missing a year of footy? Now multiply that by how many are returning. Some may get back to their best in short order but surely some will find it more difficult. Add in the fact they are all now older and not necessarily better.