We’re back. We’re back! The 2017 AFL season begins tonight, and it’s time to get back into The Roar’s AFL expert tips.
First, a few quick matters of housekeeping – we’ve got an entirely new tipping panel this year, aside from the rusted-on barnacle that is myself.
New AFL expert Maddy Friend and professional Richmond fan Cameron Rose will be giving us their tips and comments every week.
Veteran journalist Tim Lane will be giving us his tips every week as well – and of course as always, we’ll be asking you in The Crowd to give us yours!
The other important matter is an announcement that will rock you to your very core: I won’t be tipping North Melbourne every week this year. Sorry, I probably should’ve told you to sit down first.
Don’t worry, I haven’t fallen out of love with my Roos, but tipping them every week didn’t work out too well for me last year (well not after Round 9 anyway) and I figure I owe it to you all to tell you what I really think when it comes to my tips.
Alright, with that out of the way – let’s get started!
It’s straightforward tonight: Richmond over Carlton in this Thursday season opener.
It’s not too often that the match of the round in Round 1 is one where neither team played finals last year but that’s exactly the case this season with St Kilda and Melbourne, two teams on the rise playing at Etihad Stadium on Saturday.
Melbourne have an absolutely woeful record at Etihad Stadium, and the same goes for their record against St Kilda in recent years. On top of that, I believe the Saints are maybe half a step ahead of them at this point. Saints to win this one.
Sunday looks set to be a great day of footy – North Melbourne host West Coast, Adelaide host the GWS Giants, and Fremantle host Geelong.
In all three of these matches the team travelling interstate will come in as the favourites to win, but it’s worth noting that Round 1 matches in the past have often trended towards the teams playing at home.
With that in mind I am tipping Fremantle to pull off an upset against the Cats – I am tempted to some degree by the Roos and Crows too, but will back in the Eagles and Giants to get the win despite travelling.
Saturday night has two matches of interest. Essendon versus Hawthorn will be a blockbuster with many banned players returning for the Bombers, and Jarryd Roughead coming back from a cancer scare with the Hawks.
While I’m just crazy enough to believe that Essendon will play finals this year, I am still going to give my tip very narrowly to the Hawks – but there is genuine upset potential in this one.
Running concurrently is a battle of the Queensland sides, the Gold Coast Suns and the Brisbane Lions at Metricon Stadium. The Suns seem to be the favourites in the eyes of many, but I’m going with the Lions.
My reasoning here is essentially that Gold Coast will be playing a large number of new players and may not be particularly well gelled just yet, while the Lions I suspect will have a good start to the year under a new coach.
Western Bulldogs over Collingwood, and Sydney over Port Adelaide are both relatively straightforward games in my opinion. A Bulldogs win is my Lock of the Week, Travis Cloke to kick a bag!
Maddy Friend
Richmond, Bulldogs, St Kilda, Sydney, Hawthorn, Gold Coast, North Melbourne, GWS, West Coast
Blockbuster matches all round to start the season. I’m tipping Richmond to get the win over the Blues, although in the several years that this match has started the season, it’s often been closer than expected, so I’m not writing the Blues off completely.
The Western Bulldogs should do it easily over a depleted Collingwood, as should Sydney over Port Adelaide.
Other than that, I don’t see any easy wins, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the remaining matches go either way.
I’m tipping Saints over Melbourne, but only just, and it should be an absolute cracker.
Hawthorn should beat Essendon, but the Dons are such an unknown quantity this year that they could spring a surprise, especially given the returning players will be burning to impress after their year layoff.
The Suns should beat the Lions on talent, but Chris Fagan has invigorated his new charges, and it wouldn’t surprise to see them score a win.
Even though I think West Coast will finish top 4, I’m going to tip North – since 2006, the Eagles have only won one first-round match away from home, which seems as good a reason as any to tip North.
The Giants and Crows will be a cracker, pitting the two highest-scoring teams from 2016 against each other. I’m tipping the Giants given the Crows’ midfield woes, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Crows win.
Geelong should beat the Dockers, but if Fyfe gets a hold of the match, don’t be surprised to see the rejuvenated Dockers pinch a win.
Cameron Rose
Richmond, Bulldogs, St Kilda, Sydney, Hawthorn, Gold Coast, West Coast, GWS, Geelong
Richmond’s biggest win against Carlton in these Round 1 Thursday night clashes is 30 points, back in 2008. Tiger fans will be disappointed if that margin isn’t exceeded on Thursday night.
The Western Bulldogs should be too good for Collingwood on Friday night, Sydney will get an easy win against Port, and I’m inclined to play it safe with Hawthorn and Gold Coast in the Saturday night games.
Match of the round for mine is St Kilda versus Melbourne, and best to stick with weight of history here, given the Demons’ record against the Saints and at Etihad. Huge fillip for the winner, and the loser is behind the eight-ball already.
The Saints have to head to Perth to play West Coast in Round 2, so the danger of a 0-2 start is real for a team that was hot in the pre-season. St Kilda, just.
Tipping three interstate victories on Sunday – West Coast over North at Etihad, GWS over the Crows in Adelaide, and Geelong against Fremantle in Perth. That said, I’ll be surprised if all three results go that way.
| Round 1 | Josh Elliott | Maddy Friend | Tim Lane | Cam Rose | The Crowd |
| CAR vs RIC | RIC | RIC | RIC | RIC | RIC |
| COL vs WB | WB | WB | WB | WB | WB |
| STK vs MEL | STK | STK | STK | STK | STK |
| SYD vs PA | SYD | SYD | SYD | SYD | SYD |
| ESS vs HAW | HAW | HAW | ESS | HAW | HAW |
| GCS vs BL | BL | GCS | GCS | GCS | GCS |
| NM vs WCE | WCE | NM | WCE | WCE | WCE |
| ADE vs GWS | GWS | GWS | GWS | GWS | GWS |
| FRE vs GEE | FRE | GEE | GEE | GEE | GEE |
hal
Guest
I would say Eddie.
Wilson
Roar Guru
I see this as a tough game for both teams and could go anyway it just depends how can get the upper hand first
Wilson
Roar Guru
They may have the best midfielders but what about the defensive line and they also have the major handicap of Buckley as well
Jaxson
Guest
Maddy mentioning the Eagles having won only one away from home round 1 match since 2006 is very similar to something else I heard this week - which caused me to investigate. Copying and pasting from a forum thread (we = West Coast Eagles; it was a WCE forum ;-) ): 2006: home against St Kilda, won by 22 - we finished first, they finished 6th; solid effort 2007: away against Sydney, won by a point - we finished 3rd and they finished 7th, and as the top 2 teams of the previous year it was a very solid effort 2008: home against Brisbane, won by 16 - but given that we finished 15/16 with only 4 wins for the year, and they finished 10th with a 10-12 record, that's a solid effort even at home 2009: away against Brisbane, lost by 9 - they finished 6th, we finished 11th, so good performance 2010: away against Brisbane, lost by 34 - they finished 13th out of 16, but that was also the year we won the spoon, so with 4 wins for the year we were losing most of our away games that year 2011: home against North, won by 4 - we finished 4th, them 9th 2012: away against Bulldogs, won by 49 - we finished 5th, they finished 15th out of 18, so fair performance 2013: 'away' against Fremantle, lost by 28 - we finished 13th that year, while the Dockers finished third and made the GF 2014: home against Bulldogs, won by 65 - we finished 9th, they finished 14th, so good scoreline considering that 2015: away game against Bulldogs, lost by 10 - we finished 2nd, they finished 6th, so losing a first round game to a fellow finalist on their home turf by only 10 points is acceptable 2016: home against Brisbane, won by 64 - we finished 6th, they finished 17th, so a bit of a drubbing If you look at all those, you know what it says? Generally, whether home or away, the Eagles in the first round have won or lost with a scoreline indicative of their final ladder position in the year. In the three out of Perth losses since '06, one had us finishing 11th against an eventual finalist, one had us finishing 16th which means just about any team would've beaten us that year (and did), and one had us by losing than less than HGA against a fellow finalist and genuine finals dark horse (let's not forget that team, with little change, went on to win the premiership the year after). If anything, if you believe the Eagles are going to make the 8 this year and North isn't, then the last 10 year 'trend' indicates the the Eagles should win.
mds1970
Roar Guru
Would have loved to, but flights are ridiculously expensive and the last flight back to Sydney on Sunday night is too early to be sure of getting back to the airport in time - and I didn't want to stay overnight. So unfortunately not this time.
Liam Salter
Roar Guru
Are you heading down for the game? Or nah?
mds1970
Roar Guru
Am I the only one who likes Freo to knock off Geelong on Sunday night? Home ground advantage, Fyfe back, last year was surely too bad to be true for Freo.
mds1970
Roar Guru
I'm the biggest GWS fan there is, and I don't think the Giants are a certainty by any means. I'll be relieved if we get out of this one with a win.
Sydneygirl
Guest
Richmond, Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, Sydney, Hawthorn,Gold Coast, West Coast, Adelaide , and Geelong
Pope Paul VII
Guest
Always
Liam Salter
Roar Guru
Eh, I probably should've picked North since you tipped Freo! Yeah, an Essendon win would be good. It would especially exciting, given I'm live-blogging the game!
Dan
Roar Rookie
COLLINGWOOD coach Nathan Buckley will be armed with the game’s top-ranked midfield in his make-or-break 2017 season, according to Champion Data. http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/more-news/collingwoods-midfield-ranked-the-best-in-the-afl-for-2017-demons-the-worst/news-story/0454702aa6527ac5461a7cabca9192bf I'm one of the few looney's that doesn't have the dogs making the finals - but both the saints and the dees are in my 8. Either way I'm stoked footy's back and all the pre season posturing and musings can be justified or set alight come Monday.
Josh
Expert
Crowd tips are IN - Richmond, Bulldogs, St Kilda, Sydney, Hawthorn, Gold Coast, West Coast, GWS, Geelong. The last two are only narrowly leading, so I'll double-check them before the round begins.
Josh
Expert
When you're right 52 per cent of the time, you're wrong 48 per cent of the time!
Josh
Expert
You're a good loyal North man, PP.
Josh
Expert
Up the Roos!
Josh
Expert
Not enough North in those tips AD... would love to see Essendon get across the line, if only to vindicate my wild predictions.
Josh
Expert
Cheers Paul! Only got it wrong three times last year...
Josh
Expert
It's the closest of any match in our voting so far - something like 49 Crows, 51 GWS. We've all landed on the GWS side but I don't think any of us is super confident.
Josh
Expert
Be a dull way to start the year... except for Tigers fans.