Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs: Friday Night Forecast

The reigning premiers assume their position in the Friday night spotlight, journeying across town to face the Pies. Uncertainty abounds for both of these teams. What better way to expose it than in the first prime time game of the year.

We spent some time looking at the prospects of both the Dogs and Pies in the preseason. Footscray can reasonably hope, and should aspire, to be a more rounded football team in 2017, owing to the injection of a handful of forward line players and the return of captain Bob Murphy.

Collingwood’s build continued last October, and with their emerging midfielders all about to hit their prime the time is now for the slide to stop.

The stakes are dramatically different for each team, though. Stagnation for the Dogs – another finish in the bottom half of the eight – would be an acceptable outcome given its list will likely get younger in the years ahead as some veterans move on.

Stagnation for the Pies spells the end for at least one key figure, and perhaps more.

There’s plenty of water to pass under the bridge before we get to that point. Tonight is all about reading the early signs of change from both teams.

The Western Bulldogs were handball happy last season, recording a kick to handball ratio of 1.05 during the home and away season.

In the finals series, this lifted to 1.14, as the Dogs reduced their handballing from 193 per game to 166 per game.

There has been talk about the Dogs’ handball-happy stylings in the lead up to Round 1, with many questioning whether Footscray’s short passes are kosher.

The AFL and many members of the media have put Footscray, unfairly, on notice. The first free kick paid for illegal disposal will be met with cheers and jeers. If there is one.

We know the Dogs; stylings manifested in chaos around the ball, for them and their opponents. The quick handball game will swiftly become the tactic de jour across the competition. Can the Dogs maintain their advantage when everyone else tries to imitate them? It’s a big question.

Interesting side note: the Dogs had kick-to-handball ratios of 0.87, 1.30 and 1.16 in their three JLT Series games.

Head coach Luke Beveridge could have been experimenting, or it could have been the result of game situations.

The Dogs only had one game with a kick to handball ratio of less than 0.87, and one with a ratio of more than 1.30, last season.

As we discussed a few weeks ago, the Dogs will evolve. Beveridge is a graduate of the Alastair Clarkson Coaching Academy, and too good a coach not to.

This remains a young team – 10 of tonight’s 22 are 23 or younger entering the season, and if the trio of 34-year-olds are taken out of the team the Dogs average age is 24.5, less than Carlton and Richmond’s selected sides last night.

Of critical importance is the manner in which the Dogs midfield dominance will now translate into scoring.

For most of last year, the Dogs had a bit-part forward line, made up of medium sized players, an out of sorts Jake Stringer and a green key forward in Tom Boyd.

Tonight they have Travis Cloke and Stewart Crameri patrolling the forward 50. Tory Dickson, one of the most efficient half forward flankers in the game, misses tonight but will presumably take his place from next week.

Speaking of Cloke, did you know he used to play for Collingwood and he was somewhat maligned and that tonight is the first time he will play against Collingwood?

The Pies enter the season with a stronger lineup than last season, particularly when you consider Dane Swan was only on the field for a couple of minutes.

Their midfield looks stronger on paper, but we know the issues the Pies have had translating on paper strength to on-field output in recent years.

Although as has been the case in recent years, the absentees for Collingwood are notable. Jamie Elliott, Daniel Wells, Jordan De Goey and Levi Greenwood will miss due to injury.

The Pies’ second big free agent signing of the off season Chris Mayne also missed selection, but due to a poor JLT Series rather than an ailment.

Despite this, Collingwood’s forward line looks solid, and once Elliott returns it will move up another notch in my books.

Collingwood’s back six looks like a sore point, and against an invigorated Dogs forward line it could fold without a strong performance from the Pies’ midfield. The midfield looms as an interesting match up.

The contrasts in this game are too strong to ignore. The Dogs built a team without star power; the Pies have half a dozen players with A-grade pedigrees. The Dogs were one of the league’s financial minnows (before last year’s windfall); the Pies have one of the strongest set of books. The Dogs have been rising; the Pies have been falling.

The Dogs have been the dominant team in their past five matchups against the Pies, winning four and kicking 90 points per game. They’re always been tight matchups, but that’s what the Dogs’ style results in.

That’s what I think we can expect here. Collingwood enter this season knowing that improvement is an absolute necessity. The Pies don’t have a great number of prime time slots this season – still probably more than they deserve on the basis of 2016 performance – and will be keen to make a good impression on the football public.

Neither side’s strength lies at the end of the ground, making this a battle of the midfields. In this respect, it comes back to system, and depth versus top end talent. The Dogs showed for much of last year, and for all of the finals series, that system and depth trumps system and talent.

Given we’re not sure about Collingwood’s system, this looks like a comfortable Western Bulldogs win at face value.

Personally, I’ll be watching the Pies closely, to see whether head coach Nathan Buckley and his crew have instilled anything other “pressure the ball carrier” into their team’s game plan.

The Dogs for me, by five goals and change. That’s my Friday Night Forecast, what’s yours?