Yes, I know, we’re only two weeks into the AFL season. There are still 21 whole rounds of footy and a finals series to go! And yet, AFL trade rumours is a year-round business these days.
Don’t get me wrong, I understand those who just want to focus on football when the season is actually running, but if you like me are just a wee bit obsessed with trades, free agency, drafting and list management, then any time of the year is a good time to talk shop.
So what rumours have surfaced so far?
Unsurprisingly there is a lot of interest going into Dustin Martin and Nat Fyfe, the two biggest names on the official list of free agents released last month.
Fyfe just yesterday however reiterated his plans to sign with the Dockers at some point this year, and hasn’t been strongly linked with any particular clubs at this stage, so the majority expect he’ll remain at Fremantle.
Dustin Martin, on the other hand, has so far been linked to North Melbourne and Collingwood – North are reportedly willing to offer something in the realm of a million a year for five years, while Eddie McGuire was happy to say on radio that he’d like to have Martin at the Pies next year.
Martin isn’t the only high-profile player on the Kangaroos radar however, with former AFL executive Brian Waldron claiming that the Roos have offered Greater Western Sydney’s Josh Kelly a nine-year contract worth a million a year. AFL.com.au confirmed the Roos were making the offer.
That’s a gargantuan deal, on the level of the Lance Franklin and Tom Boyd moves of recent years, but would make a degree of sense for North – Kelly offers a lot of the qualities they need most, and his father Phil played for the Roos once upon a time. Kelly is out of contract at the end of the year.
North have been happy to toss big contracts at opposition players in recent years, if rumours are true, but are yet to have any of those darts hit the board. It will be interesting to see if 2017 is the year they finally land a big fish.
Kelly isn’t the only Giant being courted by Victorian clubs, with out of contract Devon Smith linked to the Cats.
That doesn’t seem likely though – the Cats gave up their 2017 first-round pick to land Zach Tuohy last year, and may be preoccupied with potentially bringing Gary Ablett home from the Gold Coast.
Jason Johannisen will be a story to follow with, the premiership Bulldog and Norm Smith Medallist publicly putting off contract talks until the end of the year and reportedly looking for a bit of a bigger paycheck than has been forthcoming from the Dogs.
Growing up in Western Australia, Johannisen has been linked to a potential return to Fremantle, who may have room in the salary cap if they continue to move on senior players, and have shown a desire to poach homegrown talent back from Victoria.
My gut feel however is that Johannisen is more likely to stay than go – he fits into the Dogs’ system and while he might have to accept less to stay, it’s worth it to be at such a well-run club. Maddy Friend said something similar on Monday.
Josh Schache is said to be the target of the Richmond Tigers, with the former No.2 draft pick off contract at the end of the year. He has expressed his happiness to be at the Lions on several occasions but talk is cheap, and he hasn’t yet put pen to paper on an extension that the Lions surely by now must have offered.
New Gold Coast co-captain Steven May is one to keep an eye on, with rumours that Hawthorn are pursuing his signature. He’s obviously now a leader at the Suns, and although he is out of contract at the end of this year, he is expected to re-sign.
Lachie Whitfield too is one for the watchlist – though he doesn’t come out of contract until the end of 2018, St Kilda are reportedly interested in him adding some midfield class. They have an extra first round pick to play with this year.
The Saints are also said to be a suitor for Josh Kelly, but would be unlikely to put down an offer of the same size that North Melbourne is reportedly doing.
Lastly, there is of course always talk about Bryce Gibbs, with Steven Trigg at Carlton saying he would be “very surprised” if the Crows don’t make another play to trade in Gibbs at the end of 2017. Gibbs is contracted until the end of 2019.
One final note to remember is that the salary cap is set to massively increase over the next few seasons, if rumours regarding the new Collective Bargaining Agreement are true. That alone could mean big things for player movement – watch this space.
Chancho
Roar Rookie
What muddies the water this year is the CBA and the added salary cap. If I were any of these guys, I wouldn't be signing anything until I knew what the CBA had to offer
Col from Brissie
Roar Guru
Good comment Aransan.
Paul D
Roar Guru
No arguments there. I'll be spewing if he leaves
alicesprings
Guest
If players wages continue to rise as they have in 9 years time a million/season will be more like 600 or 700k today. Obviously a big risk for the Roos but you've gotta be in it to win it.
Maggie
Guest
A bit different in that Franklin was older true (but he turned 27 in January 2014, his first season with the Swans, not 28). However plenty of AFL players play into their mid 30s. The rumoured Kelly 9-year offer is still assuming he will stay healthy and continue to want to play footy with North for a very long time. Or at least North should have to assume that risk to be consistent with the AFL-imposed Franklin contract condition.
sammy
Guest
again..perspective. If you are in need of a future 200+ game key defender that has immaculate disposal and reads the game really well and can play tall or small and rebounds, then Jake Lever is worth a huge amount. If you don't have a ruckman and need one that will play 200 + games and is athletic and can rack up possessions and kick some goals, Grundy is worth a huge amount. So both players have their markets so to speak and as it stands, Collingwood need good defenders and the crows need a long term replacement for Jacobs
Brian
Guest
Has the CBA been signed? If not when the date by which they need to get it done
Brian
Guest
Grundy worth a lot more then Lever
Brian
Guest
Kelly is 22 a bit different signing a 22 year old to 9 years as opposed to the 28 year old Franklin Sydney bought accross
sammy
Guest
agreed.. it is very much a perspective thing and as it stands right now, the crows look ok as they have been able to inject real pace from their ranks - Milera, Hampton, Atkins, Knight (I suppose the guys inside the club knew what they had when making the offers for Gibbs)
Macca
Guest
Sammy - The fact that Carlton keeping Gibbs was the right move for Carlton does not necessarily mean that Adelaide made the wrong move not offering more - Gibbs value to the blues is higher than his market value, Adelaide paying overs was a risk and you may well be right in what you say about the Crows list. That said if the Crows lose by a goal in the prelim this year there might some what ifs.
sammy
Guest
that is your opinion. From where the crows sit, a first round pick and a player who featured in every game for the crows last year - a team that made a semi final, had a goal scoring output and was averaging over 20 possessions per game was more than fair for a luxury player. I use the term luxury as Gibbs was not the missing piece for a flag and as proven so far this year, the crows were very confident of their own list and the growth they could get from there. They have now got a young midfield with pace to burn and some real hardnuts in the form of Sloane, Matt Crouch and Charlie Cameron. If Gibbs did come, then Cameron may not now be in the midfield nor milera and that would not have helped the clubs development. No as a crows supporter I am very happy how things played out as we also have young Gallucci from the first round pick we didn't give up developing nicely.
Macca
Guest
Mattyb - "they are extremely top heavy" Could you provide some evidence to support this - maybe the blues team for the first 2 rounds by height compared to say the bulldogs? "they need picks not bargains" How many "picks" have the blues had in the last 2 national and rookie drafts? How many players do they have on their list under 21 and how does that compare with other teams?
Macca
Guest
Sammy - Lyons has hardly set the world on fire at the Suns. Given his output the Crows First round pick and Lyons is not much more than the blues got for out of contract Tuohy form Geelong. Given Gibbs had 3 years to run on his contract, had already been paid well above 40% of his contract thanks to being front ended and the blues need some quality, experienced players to help mould the large amount of young talent coming in they made the right call in saying no.
Tommygun
Guest
Straight swop for Lever - get the deal done.
Tommygun
Guest
Adelaide's second round pick went to GWS for Hampton the year before, so they didn't have that one to offer.
sammy
Guest
Caroline Wilson was on the blower the other day saying Collingwood were preparing a big offer for Jake Lever from the crows. Lever said last night on radio that he was happy at the crows and his girlfriend has a good job at one of Adelaide's top schools, and only awaiting the new CBA before getting into contract renegotiation. However the crows should seriously be looking at Collingwood's soon to be out of contract ruckman Brodie Grundy. He is a South Australian so would be coming home and would answer the crows ruck stocks for the next 5-10 years post Jacobs. He would also be coming to a team where he could possibly win a premiership or two with the crows being the 4th youngest in the AFL and being very much one of the top teams ATM....
Aransan
Guest
Matty, I don't think Adelaide were prepared to give their first and second round draft picks -- I do remember it being referred to but from memory they wanted Carlton's third round back, the second and third round picks referring to 2017 and there wouldn't have been much between the two picks given Adelaide and Carlton's projected ladder positions. Gibbs wanted to go to Adelaide but he is professional and has been performing as well as could have been expected for Carlton, I expect him to move in the next trading period. It has been very important for Carlton this year to have senior players to support their young developing players, this will be less true next year. Players chasing big money have to balance that with their desire for premiership success. If someone wants to pay Johanissen big money, good luck to them.
mattyb
Guest
There was a lot of talk around the Gibbs deal at the time. Adelaide are continueing to look like a good side and Carlton aren't. Carlton should have taken the deal or taken a first round and second round pick. They still have around 15 players that need delisting,they need picks not bargains. Carltons list is so poor they are unable to even pick a balanced side,they are extremely top heavy. They have emergencies like Graham and Kerridge who could be replaced by the picks they could have got from the Crows. There are numerous players at Carlton I would imagine might not even be considered for selection this year,they should be desperate to gain draft picks wherever they can. Why would a team that is rebuilding want a player on their list who openly doesn't want to be there and will probably ask for a trade again anyway? It just beggars belief. I expect Martin and Fyfe to stay.Johanissen I can't really comment on as I'm a Doggies supporter and therefore biased,I hope he stays though. GWS players I expect to all remain if they are playing senior football at this point. I expect there could be an exodus of wanted Giants players in 3-5 years time though.
Slane
Guest
I'd love to see Schache down at Tigerland but I think it would be terrible for the game if he were to leave Brisbane.