Stage 947 of Kardinia Park is unveiled, as the languid Cats host the slop-loving Dogs. The weather looks atrocious, and Geelong are market underdogs at home for the first time since the veteran farewell game in 2015. Stakes are high, as ever on a Friday evening.
Punters have jumped off the Cats in a big way, and Geelong are expected to lose on their home deck for the first time since Steve Johnson, James Kelly and Matthew Stokes were farewelled in Round 23 2015.
It was a clear point of demarcation for the Cats – guaranteed to miss the finals no matter the result, it was a time to reminisce about the days of glory past.
By contrast, their opponents, the Adelaide Crows, were hot running into September, and were playing for the right to host an elimination final a week later. The Cats won by 39 points, sending off their veterans to a month-long stint in the football retirement home.
The last time the Western Bulldogs won in Geelong was 2003 – they’re 0-7 from their past seven attempts spread over an 11-year span from 2005 to 2016. During Geelong’s premiership run, a ten goal margin was pretty well the automatic result.
When is an own-ground underdog really an underdog? When the own-ground underdog is in an early season funk.
(AAP Image/Joe Castro)
We talked a little about this on Monday. Plenty has been made about Geelong’s lack of tackles, like the tackle count is a measure of effort or intensity. It is, to an extent. A better indicator would be to adjust the number of tackles a team has laid for the time their opponents have held on to the ball – you can only bring down opponents when they’ve got possession after all.
Here is every team’s tackles laid per minute of opposition possession.
| Team | Tackles per Minute of Opp Possession | Ranking |
| Adelaide | 1.33 | 10 |
| Brisbane Lions | 1.19 | 17 |
| Carlton | 1.49 | 2 |
| Collingwood | 1.34 | 7 |
| Essendon | 1.23 | 14 |
| Fremantle | 1.09 | 18 |
| Geelong | 1.21 | 16 |
| Gold Coast | 1.21 | 15 |
| GWS Giants | 1.34 | 6 |
| Hawthorn | 1.35 | 5 |
| Melbourne | 1.47 | 3 |
| North Melbourne | 1.38 | 4 |
| Port Adelaide | 1.32 | 13 |
| Richmond | 1.34 | 8 |
| St Kilda | 1.32 | 11 |
| Sydney | 1.33 | 9 |
| West Coast | 1.32 | 12 |
| Western Bulldogs | 1.54 | 1 |
Over the season, the Cats are 15th for tackles per minute of opponent possession – ahead of Gold Coast, Brisbane and Fremantle in 18th. This isn’t an indicator of success in and of itself: the Dogs are ranked one, but Carlton are second; West Coast are 12th and Port Adelaide 13th.
The Dogs are ranked number one. Keep that in mind.
Still, it’s an interesting talking point. The Cats have been unable to reliably pressure their opponents when they have the ball in hand, a marker of the way the opposition has sought to open Geelong up on turnovers and through defensive 50 exits.
Indeed, in their past three losses, the Cats have been able to lay just over one tackle (1.011) per minute of opposition possession, a mark that would have them ranked last over the season if it was their year-long output.
With the stats we have to hand, it’s difficult to pinpoint something with quantitative evidence. The eye test says Geelong’s towering press from 2016 has been torn down by opponents that have invested in pace on their half back and half forward lines.
In the weekend just past, Essendon did as they pleased exiting defensive 50, keeping some shape ahead of the ball and running the length of the field for quality scoring shots.
The Dogs went to market with a relatively small forward line last week against West Coast, but have gone tall tonight.
Luke Beveridge and company have made five changes, with Travis Cloke and Tory Dickson joining Jack Redpath in the forward line; Dale Morris and Robert Murphy heading back; Mitch Wallis playing his first AFL game since a leg break in the middle of last year.
Out go Matthew Boyd, Zaine Cordy, designated tackler Tom Liberatore, Toby McLean and Fletcher Roberts – the latter four of the quintet dropped to make way for what are evidently Beveridge’s first choice players.
The team’s height is interesting, although that may be largely due to match up requirements against the Cats’ own land of the giants.
Geelong have made two mostly like-for-like changes, albeit Lachie Henderson is a tall back compared to Rhys Stanley a tall forward. Scott Selwood re-joins the team for George-Horlin Smith. The Cats still look on the tall side to me, but this is a position I’ve maintained for a year and a half.
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
With plenty of rain forecast, the tactics of this game are likely to be simple. The team that is able to win the ball in tight, and make the most of their possessions, is the one that will win the game.
It may also be an opportunity for the Dogs to play ducks and drakes with the Cats, making a late change on the basis of weather conditions at the ground.
In this respect, the Dogs’ favouritism makes sense. Their game style is akin to an all-weather wet weather football preference, particularly now it seems as though coach Luke Beveridge has abandoned his first quarter experiments to make the game more open (which was not working).
They’re also, as mentioned, the best team for laying tackles per minute of opposition possession – opponents are made to work hard to escape the Dogs’ congestion and get the ball outside.
Geelong have two trump cards of course: Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood, who on most measures are in the top handful of players in the competition through eight rounds.
The numbers show the Cats remain the team most potent side at scoring from stoppages, even if they have issues moving the ball inside 50 once they’ve won it.
Meanwhile, the Dogs have dropped their most accountable – to a fault, it seems – midfielder (Liberatore), and in essence replaced him with an offensively-minded midfield-forward (Wallis).
The ‘Scrays might be able to stop one of Dangerfield and Selwood with their team defence – but not both of them.
In the end this game looks set to come down to whether the Western Bulldogs can make the most of turnover opportunities and run up a decent wet weather score. Their height has me feeling unsure, but then again, the entirety of Geelong’s football team has me feeling unsure.
Weighing the evidence and recent form, it has to the Dogs in a close, low-scoring encounter. It could be a 66 def 60 kind of game, particularly if the volume of rain forecast comes during the 120 minutes of football itself.
That’s exactly the circumstances in which the Dogs have thrived in recent years, even if they are seeking to be more balanced in attack and defence.
The Western Bulldogs will break their run of Ls at Kardinia Park, and win tonight by six points. That’s my Friday Night Forecast, what’s yours?
Penster
Roar Guru
Oh jeez.
Curly
Guest
Its going going to be close if the Cats differentials are about the same as the Cats differentials. Wow, Maths.
Curly
Guest
Hindsight is a wonderful thing. I did pick the Cats, of course, but was pleasantly surprised we shut down the mark and didnt offer up easy metres by "zoning nothing" as we have been. Happy, somewhat inebriated, Cats fan
Paul D
Roar Guru
I know right, the amount of people who go there just to abuse him is fantastic
Liam Salter
Roar Guru
Losing graciously gains me Facebook likes, at least. And admiration from Carlton supporters: http://imgur.com/ucsCWcf
West Crash
Guest
Either Cats by 3-4 goals or Dogs by 1 ?
Doctor Rotcod
Guest
Geelong will press the Dogs on the smaller ground,both into their defensive fifty and away from the flanks. Blicavs will play a role down back that the Dogs won't match I can see a low scoring first half,maybe only ten goals in total,plenty of behinds. The Cats will grind out a small lead in the third and Dangerfield will kick three himself in the last on the way to a five goal win On the other hand...
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
Gracious losers generally finish second, AD. I'd like to see all Freo players become ungracious in defeat. They'll soon get sick of it and win a premiership. Arrogance is key to being the best. I'd say good luck to the Bulldogs fans, but we all know I'd be lying. GO CATS!
Paul W
Guest
I think we'll know early in the game which side is switched on. We'll know soon enough, bring it on.
Liam Salter
Roar Guru
Huh, at least you can admit you're both 'irrational' and a 'sore loser', Rick. Although occasionally there's nothing worse than sore losers; I'd rather be a gracious loser. For what it's worth, I'm going the Dogs by 10 points.
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
Please don't use logic against an irrational Cats fan, Paul. For the record though: my theory sees you getting poleaxed tonight.
kick to kick
Guest
All things being equal you'd pick the Dogs . But all things aren't equal. The forecast is for rain , maybe a thunderstorm and a deluge. It's at Simonds stadium, which since the demise of ANZ is the smallest AFL ground in terms of paying area. Geelong is as slow as poured porridge and struggles to contain teams who can move the ball - its past two losses are against teams with the two best uncontested disposal differentials in the comp. But a tight playing arena makes containment easier and the Bulldogs don't rack up outside possessions at the same rate as the Suns and Demons. And there's the home ground factor for Geelong and the fact that the Cats will be desperate to atone for recent displays of touch football. The Cats have better contested possession and clearance differentials than the Cats which is significant in the slush, (though the gap isn't huge). On the other hand in the wet kicking is more effective than handball and the Cats have the lowest kick to handball ratio in the AFL. So maybe that all means is Geelong wins contested possessions but then turns over slippery handballs. The Dogs will pounce on turnovers for a modest win.
Paul W
Guest
"You’ll also find out why home ground advantage is so critical in an even completion where travelling teams rarely win". "Week 1: Bulldogs travelled out west after a weeks break. Still an impressive win, but that break really helped". "Week 3: Bulldogs played in a pro-Bulldogs stadium". Sorry Rick, can't have it both ways seeing we upset your theory twice in one finals series .
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
Haha, I'd prefer to make assessments on the comparative strengths, when both sides are at full strength. And yes Cat, you are our bogey side. In fact, Geelong is the only side last year that actually had a convincing win against us all year. That tells you something else about how good we were last year. Aransan is right, we got a march on the comp getting a flag before everyone thought we would genuinely contend. We're only going to get better. It just depends upon whether you other sides can keep up. I'm tipping the Dogs by 1 point tonight. Confidently. ?
mattyb
Guest
Four goals isn't that much Aransan but I can see your point. The dogs are getting close to their first choice defence so the cats might find it hard to score. I'm also thinking we should get plenty of rebound which should also help our scoring. I must say I don't rate Geelong overly highly,like a few others but it is at the Cattery which could help.
Cat
Roar Guru
Bulldogs were the only side that got to avoid playing any of their 'bogey' sides.
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
"I think Rick’s just dirty that his side got pulverised out of the finals" Of course I'm dirty, I'm a sore loser! Nothing worse than a gracious loser. Let's settle this argument the good old fashioned way...bragging rights to me when my boys smash yours tonight. Some good old-fashioned embarrassing trash talk!
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
Cheers Aransan. See comments below.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
I don't know how much the pre-finals bye round will assist teams outside the top four in future - I think it assisted the Bulldogs last year, but more because of the amount of extra time it gave injured players to return, rather than because of the impact of 2 weeks off out of 3 for the teams which finished top four and won in the first week of the finals. Don't really know whether that should have been a benefit to those sides or a disadvantage, and I guess we need to see more evidence to reach an informed conclusion. I think Rick's just dirty that his side got pulverised out of the finals (by the Swans) after a week off. I think Rick is looking at previous years and reasoning that the top four sides are generally ahead of the rest, without factoring in that last year was an unusually even top seven. Entering the finals, I believed there was very little difference between Swans, Cats, GWS, Hawks, Crows and Dogs, but felt our path was harder because we had to win four games in a row against high quality opponents under finals pressure (not to mention two interstate games), compared to Geelong for instance, which only needed to win three (all at home). The hope I held in the back of my mind was that whilst there was little separating those sides, the Bulldogs had achieved near-parity despite having excessive injuries throughout 90% of the season and yet we were about to embark on a finals series with many of our good players finally back in the side. I figured the injection of quality players could only make our side better, however, I had doubts about their fitness and assumed those guys returning from long injuries would struggle. The rest is history, but to suggest they weren't the best side in 2016 ignores they had an unbelievable home & away season (more impressive than all other sides) when you take into consideration the incredibly high volume of missing quality players they endured throughout the year. But apparently Rick is rarely wrong.
FreoFan
Roar Rookie
This is going to be an intriguing game of footy. There is plenty of questions being asked in the lead up to this game about both sides. The Dogs have looked like a good team but not often a great one so far this year. The Cats looked fairly good early in the season (albeit beating an inept version of Freo, the often mentally fragile Roos and the woefully inaccurate Dees) but have really fallen in a hole now. I'm not quite sure who the real Geelong is now. That could be said about most sides at the moment though... If the Cats continue playing like they have for the last 3 weeks then it will be a Dogs win. But this being at Simonds Stadium, the Cats will have a point to prove and may come out breathing fire. The Dogs also have a point to prove after competitive close losses to strong opponents away in recent weeks and a tight home win (against Eagles Tigers, & GWS). A real tough pick this one. I don't expect the margin to get out too far beyond 2 goals at any point in the night and I don't think either sides supporters would go in with too much confidence. I'm tipping the Dogs by 4 points.