Now that those pesky byes are over, we can get to the scientific process of randomly predicting the results of the second half of the season. As a Saints fan, I still think we might be having September off this year.
Adelaide (currently first) – Predicted Finish first
GWS (currently second) – Predicted Finish second
Geelong (currently third) – Predicted Finish third
Port Adelaide (currently fourth) – Predicted Finish fourth
Honestly think that the current top four will be our finishing top four with no horse trading for spots and Adelaide to take out the McClelland Trophy for the second time. Based on form, home ground advantages and their remaining games the top four will all be outside of Melbourne CBD, and Geelong would be heading north in the first week of the finals.
A qualifying final showdown at the Adelaide Oval should break AFL attendance records at the venue.
Richmond (currently sixth) – Predicted Finish fifth
Melbourne (currently fifth) – Predicted Finish sixth
West Coast (currently seventh) – Predicted Finish seventh
Sydney (currently 12th) – Predicted Finish eighth
Sydney get there on percentage only, and it speaks more of St Kilda’s and the Bulldogs’ woes putting teams away/getting big scores against then anything else. The Swans don’t have an ‘easy’ draw, but more that St Kilda and the Bulldogs have a hard run.
For the other teams, not much more to remark. West Coast will put wins on the board at home, Melbourne have played at Manuka Oval before so it’s not foreign, and Richmond as mentioned earlier get St Kilda twice.
(AAP Image/David Moir)
Western Bulldogs (currently ninth) – Predicted Finish ninth
St.Kilda (currently 10th) – Predicted Finish 10th
Fremantle (currently 11th) – Predicated Finish 11th
Collingwood (currently 13th) – Predicated Finish 12th
There will be not much movement for the teams missing out. They will win the games they are meant to win, and fall short in the games where they aren’t going in the favourites. As a Saints fan, that pesky inability to put teams to the sword will burn them again (last year it was only percentage that kept them out of finals).
Western Bulldogs appear to not like being the hunted, and are struggling at the moment. Fremantle and Collingwood to keep doing their thing, but don’t see the above teams in the top eight making way for them to get in.
I understand it is nothing ground breaking, but the current top eight looks to be a fairly accurate reflection of the season to date.
There are a lot of ‘middle of the road’ teams that are winning games against the flow, and dropping games that they really should be winning. Carlton’s upset of GWS and win against Gold Coast in the past two weeks is in direct contrast to Richmond dropping a massive lead against Sydney.
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Following on, predicting how the AFL would schedule everything in the first week of the finals after the enforced week off.
Thursday night at the MCG for Melbourne versus West Coast, it will give West Coast best preparation for the next week if they get up, and gives MCG staff time to turn the stadium around for the other final.
The Adelaide Showdown for the Friday Night game, it will rate well enough, and South Australians have shown a willingness to get out in numbers.
Saturday afternoon game GWS/Geelong and Saturday night Richmond/Sydney at the G. GWS will struggle to pull a crowd, and the eyeballs I feel will be on Richmond more than Geelong in Victoria so the Tigers get the nod for the prime time slot.
Is that a little unfair? Yes, but at the end of the day, the ‘fixture’ is about maximising revenue at its core.
I have Adelaide, GWS, Melbourne and Richmond going through, setting up Port Adelaide and Richmond on Friday night Adelaide Oval and Melbourne/Geelong at the ‘G on Saturday Night.
Geelong and Port go through, setting up another Dangerfield vs Crows and GWS/Port in the other final.
Probably giving Friday to GWS, purely because Geelong have been on Saturday fixture, so a six-day versus two week break is a little unfair.
Hard to pick a winner in either of those matches, but the AFL would probably prefer Geelong (as the final Victorian team) to get through – although a Showdown at the MCG wouldn’t be the worst result.
But what do you think Roarers, where do you have teams finishing up at the end of the season. I know it’s all crystal ball, but it’s a bit of fun to throw darts at the wall and see what sticks. Who do you have as your minor premiers and grand finalists?
Winston
Guest
I totally agree with that. Say if we were to play Geelong, we put 2 defenders on Hawkins, 1 tagger on Dangerfield; and on the other hand you put 2 defenders on Buddy, 1 tagger on Hannebery. After that it's Selwood vs Kennedy with 35 touches and 2 goals each, and therefore cancel each other out. If all of those match ups go to plan, on paper you don't have much to combat the rest of our team. Now that I've said that we'll probably get pumped by you guys next time we play each other...
Cat
Roar Guru
Maybe, but even that's a long bow to draw and more of an aberration than the norm. No other side will ever be able to stockpile so many #1 picks.
Mattician6x6
Guest
Cat-Greater Western Sydney Giants are probably up there. My assessment of Geelong is the gap between their elite and their middle tier is the most prominent of any team in the contenders category and I have yet to see anything this season change my long held view.
Cat
Roar Guru
Again name any team in the league that is going to be consistently good without their best 3. There is none.
Mattician6x6
Guest
Winston- excellent assessment, the evenness in some ways could be traced back to depletion on talent pool with introduction of new teams. In regards to cats I agree once you go past their top 5players the drop in talent is greater than any team in top 8.
Mattician6x6
Guest
Cat-West coast over came the adversity of losing their key fwd last round. Nullify the effect of Dangerfield, selwood, Hawkins, Tuohy & Duncan and your 90% of the way to beating Geelong.
Winston
Guest
What I mean is take away the best 3 players of each team and compare the rest from both teams. Geelong has shown time and time again they would falter.
Cat
Roar Guru
Rob
Guest
You wasted a paragraph suggesting the Eagles might need a better recovery time. They wont win in Melbourne. Geelong wouldnt beat Melbourne on current form at the G either.
Wayne
Roar Guru
I was also there, and the crowd was 48-52 in favour of Bulldogs. Port were there more because of how soft their draw is. They have a few games you would expect them to win, and if they are genuine about being a top team they will win more then they lose
Winston
Guest
This doesn't make good reading. Much has been said about how even a season it is, but if you scan the comments above, there seems to be a lot of negativity about who's playing poorly rather than who's playing great. You can easily mount a case for why any of the top 8 is not a very good team. Adelaide has had their recent issues and unanswered questions about their midfield; GWS with their injuries and relative inexperience; Geelong very inconsistent and obvious weaknesses in multiple spots (take away Dangerfield, Selwood and Hawkins and what have they got?); Port simply doesn't look like a very good team; Melbourne being inconsistent and no finals experience; Richmond being Richmond; WCE with obvious weaknesses in away form, slow midfield, Darling not firing, Jetta doing nothing etc; Essendon with huge question marks over last year. I'm happy about your optimism for the Swans, but they have obvious weaknesses in slow midfield, inability to win the ball, reliance on Buddy, way too many hack kicks in defence, bad ruck, bad Tippett, Papley nothing like the best small forwards in Betts and Walters. Rather than say it's an even season, it might be better to say it's just bad talent across the board this year. Where's the team with the Fab Five midfield? Where's the Twin Tower forward line? Where's the ruckman playing like an extra midfielder? Where's the watertight defence? Where's the impenetrable forward press? Where's the gun 100 goal full forward? Or even, eg Swans 2005, where's the midfield that just tackles like crazy? These are all concepts that have made great teams in years gone by and I don't think we can say any team has any of these right now.
Ryan Geer
Roar Pro
'd have to disagree saying GWS won't pull a crowd for their first final. Yes Spotless is only small you might only be getting 20-22 thousand fans. But I was there for their Prelim last season and it was pumping even games against the Tigers and Swans there the atmosphere is amazing for such a small stadium and crowd and GWS thrive off it, their record there is very good. But yes the top 8 reckon will be what you said maybe one or two differences, Port aren't a top 4 team by any means right now
Roger of Sydney
Guest
Green agree with what you say about Port and Essendon, the top four is formed more about who has played badly so far rather than the top four playing great. Having said that Crows, GWS & Geelong deserve to be there Port do not. If Swans do make the eight there is none of these teams they can't beat. Essendon are very good so Friday night against Swans will tell a story. If I had to make abet GWS for GF glory
Mattician6x6
Guest
Pies at etihad is a must win and blues/lions at domain are non negotiable percentage boosting opportunities, 1st half of season counts for nought (just ask roo fans) wce are presented with a great opportunity in 2nd half of season, up to the players to grasp them.
Wilson
Roar Rookie
Obviously this season is incredibly hard to predict so I'll withhold from being hypercritical... apart from two points: 1. Port in the top 4? Port Adelaide are yet to beat anyone in the top 10 so far this season. They're not very good. 2. Bizarrely negative regarding the Bombers, who've easily accounted for 2 of your top 4 teams, thrashed West Coast (your 7th team), are currently in the top 8 and now enjoy a relatively simple (comparatively) run home.
Billy
Guest
I know its hard to make a case for WCE given their away form, but the next few games-melb (home), dogs (etihad), port(home), freo/derby(home) is their chance to build a launch pad for finals..IF..they turn the corner and maintain that intensity shown against Geelong in away games. They appear to have depth to cover Kennedys absence-now extended, due to another injury. They do come home strong in latter half of season (and admittedly, recently, fall away in finals).There is also an outside chance NicNat will return for finals. Any other influencing factors will be determined by coaching chops, injuries and the footy gods? I feel if things fall their way and they create their own luck, they could finally drive home deep into finals and capitalise..we know how good they can be when a cohesive unit..or we'll just see more of the same...and a rebuild-reboot next season.
JamesH
Roar Guru
Me too. I tipped 10th for them at the start of the season. On current form I would be gutted if they can't even make the top 12.
13th Man
Guest
Right now I would expect Essendon to finish ahead of the Doggies, Freo and Collingwood to be honest.
Mattician6x6
Guest
Opinions of WCE will either be consolidated or drastically change at the end of next 3 rounds.
dan ced
Guest
I think Port will only just scrape into finals, just don't seem to have any consistency. I also think Sydney will just fall short. I just want the Crows to win a Prelim for the first time in 19 years.. bloody outrageous they flaked so often in their premiership window a decade ago. I won't even be too butt hurt if we lose a GF.. because we never have, and we need to get over our Prelim Hoodoo.