With four rounds left to go there are still ten clubs in the mix for the finals. Three clubs are in a dog fight for eighth spot, with another two still mathematically a chance of dropping out of the eight if things go pear shaped.
However, as we know – although the Eels got very close in 2009 – no club in the NRL era has ever won the competition from outside the top four.
Only one club – the Storm – is a certainty to make the top four, but another four sides are fighting it out for the other three spots.
It is this very uncertainty – and the hope and anticipation that it engenders – that has made the NRL ladder predictor the most visited site for rugby league fans.
Let’s have a look at what could happen.
Making the eight
In over 75 per cent of the 18 completed seasons of the NRL so far 28 points were required to make it into the top eight. On a couple of occasions it was less, but in only one instance – 1999 – was more than 30 points required to make the top eight.
In 2017, 30 points will be the cut off for the eight. Points differential is likely to be vital to making it too.
There are five clubs still in contention who have not yet accumulated 30 points:
• The Cowboys (28pts)
• The Sea Eagles (28pts)
• The Panthers (26pts)
• The Dragons (24pts)
• The Raiders (22pts)
The Cowboys
Current points: 28
Points differential: +44
Matches: L – Panthers (A), L – Sharks (H), W – Wests Tigers (A), L – Broncos (H)
The boys from FNQ must only win two more games to be certain of playing finals. Their problem is that they have no gimmes in the run home – and no Johnathan Thurston. Away to the Panthers this weekend will be tough, and the Sharks and Broncos at home are no certainties. Their visit to Campbelltown is the only game they are better than even odds to win.
Prediction: one win, three losses – 30 Points +20 points differential
Finish: 8th
The Sea Eagles
Current points: 28
Points differential: +41
Matches: W – Wests Tigers (A), W – Bulldogs (A), W – Warriors (A), L – Penrith (H)
How important was that win over the Roosters to stop the rot and renew the confidence. Down 18-4 Daly Cherry-Evans lifted his side. While three of their four remaining games are away, they are playing three out of contention and arguably demoralised sides before coming home to play the Panthers.
(AAP Image/Richard Wainwright)
Prediction: three wins, one loss – 34 Points +71 points differential
Finish: 6th
The Panthers
Current points: 26
Points differential: +51
Matches: W – Cowboys (H), L – Raiders (A), W – Dragons (H), W – Sea Eagles (A)
The men from the foot of the mountain are coming home like a steam train. After a slow start to the season they’ve now won five in a row to be in eighth. Their run home is hard but there is no reason they can’t get their fair share of them.
Prediction: Three wins, one loss – 32 Points +65 points differential
Finish: 7th
The Dragons
Current points: 24
Points differential: +73
Matches: W- Titans (H), L – Broncos (A), L – Panthers (A), W – Bulldogs (H)
With 74 minutes gone against the Rabbitohs the Dragons looked like they had the match won. Now they’ve only won two of their last eight games and find themselves out of the eight. So can they rebound? No. No they can’t. They’ll get two more wins but they’ll fall short.
Prediction: Two wins, two losses – 28 Points +67 points differential
Finish: 10th
The Raiders
Current points: 22
Points differential: +53
Matches: W- Warriors (A), W – Panthers (H), W – Knights (H), L – Storm (A)
The Raiders may have finally found the form that has eluded them. A scrappy win against the Rabbitohs, followed by a superb showing against the Sharks, they’ve left it to the very last moment. They can’t lose another game if they want to make the finals. And I think they’ll fall just short.
The Warriors have a recent record of closing seasons off with lots of losses, The Raiders will be out for revenge against the Panthers after Round 14 and the Knights for Round 10. But then they come up against the Storm in Round 26.
Prediction: Three wins, one loss – 28 Points +105 points differential
Finish: 9th
The Top Four
Oddly, teams that have finished the home and away season in third place have won the Premiership the most. However, the top four finish has been essential.
These are the five clubs I think are in genuine contention for the top four:
• The Storm (36pts)
• The Roosters (32pts)
• The Broncos (30pts)
• The Sharks (30pts)
• The Eels (30pts)
I think 36 points will be necessary to make the top four, and again points differential will be vital.
The Storm
Current points: 36
Points differential: +178
Matches: W- Roosters (H), W – Knights (A), W – Rabbitohs (H), W – Raiders (H)
Wow. I thought the age of the Storm’s champion players may weary them enough that Bellamy’s boys would perhaps not be the pace setters for a change. Wrong. Second and third is daylight.
The only thing that can stop the Storm in 2017 is injury to Cooper Cronk or Cameron Smith. I swore that Smith tore his pec against the Raiders and the next week he came out and destroyed the Sea Eagles. He can’t be stopped. He is the Terminator.
Prediction: Four wins 44 Points +254 points differential
Finish: 1st
The Roosters
Current points: 32
Points differential: +65
Matches: L – Storm (A), W – Wests Tigers (H), L – Sharks (A), W – Titans (H)
I’m not convinced by the Roosters. That loss to the Sea Eagles upset me, and not just because is blew my multi. There was no resilience. Jake Friend and Boyd Cordner back should more than help but they’ve got two very tough matches out of their last four. I reckon they’ll be off to Melbourne first week of the finals…
Prediction: Two wins, two losses, 36 points +73 points differential
Finish: 4th
The Broncos
Current points: 30
Points differential: +138
Matches: W – Sharks (H), W – Dragons (H), W – Eels (H), W – Cowboys (A)
The Broncos have every excuse to be dropping their bundle. However, they haven’t. I was sure losing Andrew McCullough would render their pack ineffective. However, their demolition of the Titans showed that it might not.
(AAP Image/Dave Hunt)
Plus they are in the mood to attack and they’ve got some deadly weapons in Anthony Milford, Ben Hunt, Darius Boyd, the Nikorima they kept (Kodi) and James Roberts. I reckon they’ll run into the finals on the back of lots of tries.
Prediction: Four wins, 38 points +198 points differential
Finish: 2nd
The Sharks
Current points: 30
Points differential: +75
Matches: L – Broncos (A), W – Cowboys (A), W – Roosters (H), W – Knights (A)
James Maloney is back and that should really help the Sharks steady the ship, after a quick loss to the Broncos that is. I lost a case of beer betting that the Sharks would miss the 2017 finals due to a stellar grand final hangover. Wrong. They’ll finish in third spot, primed for a back to back effort.
Prediction: Three wins, one loss, 36 points +93 points differential
Finish: 3rd
The Eels
Current points: 30
Points differential: +12
Matches: W – Knights (H), W – Titans (H), L – Broncos (A), W – Rabbitohs (H)
The Eels won’t just make the finals this year – in spite of no Beau Scott and no Clint Gutherson – they area red hot things to make the top four. However, I reckon they’ll just miss on points differential.
Prediction: Three wins, one loss, 36 points +60 points differential
Finish: 5th
So I reckon the final ladder looks like this:
1. Storm 44 points +254
2. Broncos 38 points +198
3. Sharks 36 points +93
4. Roosters 36 points +73
5. Eels 36 points +60
6. Sea Eagles 34 points +71
7. Panthers 32 points +65
8. Cowboys 30 points +20
9. Raiders 28 points +105
10. Dragons 28 points +67
11. Rabbitohs 22 points -80
12. Titans 20 points -166
13. Warriors 18 points -138
14. Bulldogs 18 points -161
15. Wests Tigers 16 points -196
16. Knights 12 points -256
At least that is what I came up with on my third go for today.
So how do you reckon the ladder will end up? Have a go yourself.
It’s pretty much all of us whose team is still in contention are doing.
Bunney
Roar Rookie
Glad you were right. The Sharks were deadset ordinary tonight
The Spectator
Guest
If Mel make the gf v a Q team I'd bet Mel, I'd prefer a Sydney club V Mel as I think Mel own Q nrl. Too intimidating for anyone outside of JT.
Chris Love
Roar Guru
One thing that may have been overlooked also is Parramatta's nack, even in their shot years, of beating Brisbane in Brisbane. I'm pretty sure if we got a stats guru to look closely, parramatta would have the upper hand in Brisbane and the reverse in Parramatta.
Gaz
Roar Rookie
Sharks will react to last weeks loss no doubt but will come up against a fully committed Broncos team on their home turf in front of 30k + hostile fans. Sharks have a good record at Lang Park none the less and should be game of the round. Both teams will know at full time if their title hopes are valid.
The Spectator
Guest
09 GF, 5 mins to play, momentum all with Parramatta, 30 meters out Slater attempting to pick up a ball at his ankles fumbles knocks on and continues, ref let's it go! If that was called Parramatta legitimately beat a team some 2mill better off then they were.
Tim Gore
Expert
I don't reckon he'll rest players. I reckon he'll want to eliminate the Raiders. Right now who can actually challenge the Storm across the Park. Maybe the Rooters, maybe the Sharks, maybe an in form Raiders. If they are still alive in round 26 Bellamy will want to finish them off.
Tim Gore
Expert
Yeah but the eels nearly won - I'd argue should have won - in 2009. The Dogs weren't close in 1998.
Tim Gore
Expert
You forgot Galen's high tackle.
Tim Gore
Expert
Grey Hand and Roberto are right. Broncos are pretty clean in the ruck.
Tim Gore
Expert
That possibility does exist. No Cooper this weekend will be interesting. The calf is known as the old man injury...
Tim Gore
Expert
That's what you think! Daylight will fight and they'll win!
Stuart McLennan
Expert
Happy that you have us avoiding the spoon Tim. A sad reality for a Tigers fan currently.
spruce moose
Guest
Broncos would crush daylight on a Friday night.
Ed Nixon
Roar Pro
I think these predictions are going to be fairly accurate by the end of the season. Pains me as a Dragons fan to say that...
Big Daddy
Guest
Go the Roo's. Lots of money.
Albo
Guest
AB, not sure why you think the Panthers can't win 3 of their remaining 4 games? I think 3 wins would be a pass mark for them at this serious stage of the year, and 4 wins still a distinct possibility. Moylan & Merrin returning sooner rather than later would help. This week they play the Cowboys, who have numerous injury concerns, have lost their last two games, are away from home and only beat the Panthers on the bell with a "hail mary' bomb to Feldt a few weeks ago in Townsville. The Panthers have won 9 of 11, their last 5 in row and their last 6 home games. Nothing pretty, but still winning ugly at this stage. The Raiders are on a roll of just one good game this year ! Penrith beat them in Bathurst a few weeks back. Penrith have an OK record in Canberra in recent times. St George have lost their last two to Newcastle & Souths. Penrith are at home again with that handy home record. Manly are running hot at present and will be the toughest of the 4 for the Panthers to beat at Brookie. But Penrith did beat them only a few weeks back, and surely Moylan & Merrin will be back by then ? Furthermore, the Panthers are surely due to finally click into gear for this season.
Don
Roar Rookie
I watch the games rather than just focusing on stats. The Broncos slow the ruck. Whether a penalty is blown or not often depends on where the transgression occurs. They don't use the tactic as much as the Roosters and Storm do where they actually want the penalty blown so they can reset. But Blair in particular slows down the ruck as much as anyone. A few years ago we had people on here saying that the Roosters were being treated unfairly by refs because of high penalty counts against them. Equally we had people saying they were just undisciplined. A few of us at the time were talking about it being a tactic they used. Reality was they gave away penalties on purpose under pressure in their red zone so they could reset their line. This is a common tactic now. But for 2 years it showed as a bad stat against them until everyone accepted they did it on purpose. Still shows as a "bad" stat if we close our eyes to the game and review stats to determine team "discipline." I'd say wrestling to give away a penalty in lieu of a try is disciplined play in line with a game plan. But in the stats it shows as a guy who gives away penalties....
Gray-Hand
Guest
Don, you have no idea what you are talking about. The Broncos play one of the quickest ruck games in the competition by design. Their tactics are to hit the opposition with shoulders and get them on the ground fast with a minimum of wrestling. That, together with the natural tendency of referees to even up ruck speeds makes the game run quicker with more sets of play. The broncos back their fitness and their smaller forward pack to close out matches. Look at the statistics - the Broncos both run and concede more metres than most clubs. That's not because they are so great at attack and bad at defence - it's because their games have a lot more sets. They also don't get pinged for slowing down the ruck anywhere near as often as most teams.
The Barry
Roar Guru
The semi final series of 1995 is the greatest month of rugby league I've ever seen. I watched the semi final against Brisbane on the weekend just gone. Brilliant footy from both sides but especially the Dogs. Pay, Britt, Lamb, Dymock were outstanding. From 6th spot, torn apart by SL, beating the best teams of the era Dragons, Broncos, Raiders and Manly in consecutive weeks. It was glorious. Didn't use that as an example as you said the Eels came close in the NRL era making the GF from 8th. But the 98 Dogs were NRL era and made it from 9th.
Joe
Roar Rookie
You're right and if history is to go by last time Bellamy rested players for the final round it didn't' go well for them in that game or in the finals either. That said this year Bellamy has been really mindful of the big three especially considering their age and has been very willing to give them a rest. I think he will also seriously consider it for the last game especially with the risk of injury as the Raiders have a very big pack. A desperate Raiders side against a second string Storm I'd back the Raiders to come away with the win if it meant finals footy.