Here we are – the final round of the home-and-away season, the week that will separate the finalists from the rest and decide the wooden spoon.
If you’re wondering how all that figures together, wonder no more – I wrote out all the best and worst case scenarios for all the relevant teams on Wednesday.
You’ve got to hand it to the AFL, they’ve scheduled this round brilliantly without even knowing it – eight games involving at least one potential finalist, and a wooden spoon decider. No game is without impact.
Generally speaking, I’m tipping the team who has something at stake over the team who doesn’t – so that’s tips for the Bulldogs, Melbourne, Sydney, Port Adelaide, Essendon and Richmond right off the bat.
Of the lot, I reckon the biggest upset potential exists in the Collingwood versus Melbourne game, though Friday night’s match is close to a 50-50 proposition as well.
That leaves two games that feature finals fancies on both sides, and the spoon-off.
Brisbane have been in better form than North Melbourne in recent weeks, and the home ground advantage as well. Unfortunately for my Roos I believe a first wooden spoon since 1972 is the likely result. C’est la vie.
Which is a bigger concern for Geelong versus GWS – Geelong missing their captain, or GWS struggling to beat the best away? I’ve seen over the last two weeks that Geelong know how to win without Joel Selwood, but I’m yet to be convinced on the latter, so the Cats it is.
Adelaide are a lot like West Coast in some ways, except they are actually good. I expect this one to be decided to some degree by the games before it, as that will affect the teams’ motivation – that’s hard to predict though, so I’ll just pick Adelaide because they are good.
The last lock of the week for the year… Port Adelaide will absolutely slaughter Gold Coast in Gary Ablett’s last game for the club (assuming he gets up).
Maddy Friend
Hawthorn, Melbourne, Brisbane, Sydney, Geelong, Port Adelaide, Essendon, Richmond, Adelaide
The Bulldogs have everything to play for on Friday night, but I’m tipping the Hawks to get the win.
With a finals spot on the line, I expect the Dees to get over the Pies.
Brisbane has been playing with good energy and spirit recently, and I think they’ll be eager to get the win over North to end their season on a good note.
Geelong against GWS is the match of the round – the Cats will get the win at home, but in a close one.
I expect Adelaide to win in Perth, but I wouldn’t be surprised if West Coast mounted a serious challenge at home.
Sydney, Port Adelaide, Essendon and Richmond should all get comfortable wins.
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Cameron Rose
Hawthorn, Melbourne, Brisbane, Sydney, GWS, Port Adelaide, Essendon, Richmond, Adelaide
The last round of the season is upon us, and rarely are as many spots in the top two, four, six and eight still up for grabs, and the wooden spoon is still up in the air too.
Friday night’s game is the least consequential game of the round, which is a pity to kick off the weekend with. The Dogs looks dusted for the year, and the Hawks can win.
Melbourne should prove too strong for Collingwood, but should still make the eight even if they don’t.
Brisbane’s last three weeks have been better than North’s, so that’s reason enough to go with them. And with the big players North are shaping to be in the off-season, holding onto the number one draft pick is all-important.
Sydney will give Carlton a touch-up, although you suspect the Blues will try and provide nuisance value.
Geelong hosts GWS in the match-of the round, to possibly determine which one hosts the rematch in the first week of finals. The Cats will have the benefit of outrageously biased umpiring, the “noise of affirmation”, if their recent win over Richmond is anything to go by, but the Giants still look too strong.
Port basically needs to beat Gold Coast by more than Sydney beats Carlton, to stay ahead of them and be in line for a top four finish. They will.
Essendon will thump Fremantle, and Joe Daniher could kick half a dozen or more to stay in the Coleman race.
Richmond will be out of the top four by the time they play St Kilda, but winning will put them back in. I’ll back them in, with heart more than head.
Adelaide needs to beat West Coast to maintain top spot, if GWS beat Geelong. Regardless, they should be too slick for the Eagles.
| Round 23 | Josh Elliott | Maddy Friend | Tim Lane | Cam Rose | The Crowd |
| HAW vs WB | WB | HAW | WB | HAW | HAW |
| COL vs MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL |
| BRI vs NM | BRI | BRI | BRI | BRI | BRI |
| SYD vs CAR | SYD | SYD | SYD | SYD | SYD |
| GEE vs GWS | GEE | GEE | GWS | GWS | GEE |
| PA vs GCS | PA | PA | PA | PA | PA |
| ESS vs FRE | ESS | ESS | ESS | ESS | ESS |
| RIC vs STK | RIC | RIC | RIC | RIC | RIC |
| WCE vs ADE | ADE | ADE | ADE | ADE | ADE |
| Last week | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Total | 111 | 111 | 118 | 120 | 117 |
Mark
Guest
Don't think Hawthorn winning will be an upset.
gameofmarks
Roar Guru
The Crows have just announced their bookends (Talia and Walker) have been omitted from Sunday's game against the WCE with injuries. This increases the WCE's chances of slipping into the eight if either Melbourne lose to Collingwood or the Dockers hold Essendon to a small winning margin of less than 30 points.
Cat
Roar Guru
Even the 'experts' are a 50/50 split on the game, so not surprising the crowd is nearly dead even too.
Josh
Expert
Crowd tips in. Geelong get the tip on Saturday night with 50.2% of the vote if you can believe it.
me too
Roar Rookie
Lots of upsets this week. The hawks, pies, and eagles will all get up. Essendon will have it's most famous final round loss since 2008 and again benefit the saints, who will run over richmond.
me too
Roar Rookie
North to be well beaten and gain that number one pick they've been eyeing off to offer for Kelly.
Cat
Roar Guru
Cats to win. GWS 'return to form' to be shown as the mirage built on a soft fixture that it is. AFL to announce they are screwing Geelong over afterwards and offer up some weak excuses why the home team can't play at home.
peter chrisp
Guest
Paul would definitely like to see that, it would be a fine way to go a win against the Tigers, let's hope you can get over the line
paul
Guest
the swans can blow torch u or make it exiting till the end inn this game i can safely say we can all go home or turn of the tv set by 1/2 time coz the 20 minute break is the only restbite the blues will get come the 3rd teams it will get more a & more ugly why coz the swans not only need to get 4 points they need % pecentage they need the tigers & the power to lose or at lest one of them to make 4th & they need to make sure buddy dont win the colman or there flag hopes r shot so its a testing day if u r a blues fan & a stressful week end if u go for the swans no one will know who were till the saints play the tigers on sunday on ch 7 free to air & teams returning from perth who played the 4.40pm game tend to arrive flat in there next match im picking an upset & for the saints to win 1-39 & the tigers to finish 5th or 6th coz im sure the power will pump the suns as will the swans pump the blues but then again there been more upsets than favored teams winning so who really knows ? there was a time where lots of the pro tipsters the the papers had 0- 6 after 6 game the the early rounds
paul
Guest
never use gas on a windy day who ever eaten torched tiger meat ?
paul
Guest
well u talk a lot of truths there archie the tigers not going to get past week 2 ok fair enough week 3 lucky theres a bye week mmm ?
paul
Guest
the truth is that the roos are so good at finding ways to lose they dont remember how to win its panic football where they do as they often do & over hand ball & keep kicking it to brown who will get double teamed by the lions & i guess end up with 2 to 4 goals on a good day he has been known to kick none many times & one last thing the roos dont travel well to place that hot there a cold or windy team once its steamy & hot they fall apart & on big ground like the lions have they get a whooping i feel lions by 16 to 40 points ...
paul
Guest
the tigers will be out in week 2 but then again they was ment to beat the blues in week one a few years ago got tired & they spent the finals taking a dirt nap so who knows what tigers teams will turn up ?
paul
Guest
trust me the saints will see nick of in style & jack will play the finals from 5th or 6th place the power will get in the top 4 on percentage over the swans
paul
Guest
sure its the last round & next week theres no footy (bye) so who wins the flag & who dont & why well its simple really u win the coleman u win the rising star u win the minor premiership u win the mark or goal of the year or u win the brownlow u WONT BE WINNING THE FLAG & why coz the afl plan it that way back in 2000 u could win every thing & the bombers & cats did but its different times now u win any of the above things u rule your self out of the flag u see the end game before u see the shiny premership cup trust me its all true oh yeah one last little thing u dont make the top 4 u dusted as well so why did the bulldogs win it in 2016 out of the top 4 ? because the afl eleminated the top 4 cats browlow roos mark of the year crows goal of the year swans minor premiership & rising star eagles coleman the list goes on its all a game the afl play with fans & supporters of teams to get bums to games & to sell team gear sorry to wake u all up to there twisted games but all afl games r rigged before they start i can pick the winner before the first bounce just by watching the tv opener opps did i give some things away ? MY BAD
Macca
Guest
While we appreciate him it will be interesting to see how much he plays next year - Jones, Marchbank Plowman & Weitering would all be ahead of him and there is a rumour in the paper today that Rowe is being offered another contract - doesn't leave much room for A Silvagni unless used as a Franklin specialist.
dontknowmuchaboutfootball
Guest
Silvagni always played well on Buddy. I always thought he should've been given more opportunities at Freo. Of course, he also always had the worst luck when it came to injuries: he'd finally earn himself a spot in the side and then do a hammy or something. Glad to see him in a team that can appreciate him.
dontknowmuchaboutfootball
Guest
Looking forward to seeing how the Tigers manage to eat 'em alive while they cook with gas.
The Ghost
Guest
You may be the Grand Old Team, but we are the Team of the People. All Victorians will be on board the Tiger train when we play in the grand final. Victorians want to see another fairy tale, and nothing is a better fairy tale than the Tigers winning the big one. Unlike the one hit wonder Bulldogs, we will build a culture of success. Expect to see Richmond in the top four for years to come.
Kaniel Outis
Guest
We will win and it won't be an accident. We are not a team that tanks for the number one draft pick; that is not the North Melbourne way.