After the trade period wrapped up last week the next big event on the AFL calendar is now the draft, which will be held a little over a month from now on Friday 24 November.
Realistically speaking, the draft is still much too far away for us to have any hope of accurately predicting who will go where – but why should that stop me making a few wild guesses and having some fun?
Below I’ve put together a very, very early attempt a top 20 phantom draft for 2017, looking at players both in terms of what kind of prospect they are, and how they would fit into the club I’ve matched them with.
Some matches already feel hand-in-glove, most are nothing short of wild guesses. I make no apologies for what is a virtual certainty that I will be proven horribly, horribly off the mark when the big night arrives.
Pick 1 – Brisbane Lions – Cam Rayner
187cm, 88kg
The Lions face a curious decision as moreso than other clubs they will be considering not just who is the best prospect but also who is the most likely to commit to a Queensland club for the long term.
That is really always something of a gamble though and no matter which route the Lions go down there will be some risk. The recent departure of Josh Schache is a reminder that you never really can predict who will stay and who will go.
With that in mind I have them taking the best talent available which at this stage appears to be Cam Rayner, who has drawn numerous and repeated comparisons to the iconic player of 2017, Dustin Martin.
The knock on Rayner in his endurance – at the moment it’s not clear whether he has it in him to become a fulltime midfielder, or if he’ll forever split his time between the middle and the forward line.
Pick 2 – Fremantle Dockers – Paddy Dow
184cm, 78kg
The leading contenders for this pick are all midfielders and Fremantle have a few options to choose from. I have them picking up Paddy Dow, a versatile inside-outside mid with a deadly burst of speed away from the stoppages.
Pick 3 – Carlton Blues – Luke Davies-Uniacke
187cm, 85kg
Rayner, Dow and Davies-Uniacke are touted as the likely top three by most, though in what order remains to be seen – Carlton will be happy with any of them.
Davies-Uniacke is a mature, big-bodied type who will be ready to play plenty of midfield minutes from Round 1, 2018.
Pick 4 – North Melbourne Kangaroos – Jaidyn Stephenson
189cm, 76kg
Stephenson hasn’t necessarily got same the deep record of good form as some other prospects in the early part of the draft, but his combination of height, speed and forward nous make him a unique and exciting prospect. North Melbourne could use that.
Pick 5 – Fremantle Dockers – Aaron Naughton
194cm, 84kg
I was originally sceptical of Fremantle going after tall WA-born backman Naughton here, but having gained another top five pick they might be willing to reach for him a little.
In combination with last year’s first pick Griffin Logue he would set their defence up for the longterm.
Pick 6 – Collingwood Magpies – Jarrod Brander
195cm, 90kg
An athletic tall who has played good football at both ends of the ground, it’s not clear right now whether Brander will settle as a forward or a defender.
These ‘swingman’ types make me a bit wary as I prefer players who know what their best position is, but Collingwood could badly use a tall at either end of the ground so it might be less of a concern for them than it would be others.
Pick 7 – St Kilda Saints – Adam Cerra
186cm, 85kg
A classy midfielder, Cerra could easily go much, much higher than this but if the Dockers and Magpies pick talls then someone very promising is going to slip to the Saints and it might be him.
Cerra would add a touch of finesse to a St Kilda midfield that is more known at the moment for its grunt and grind.
Pick 8 – St Kilda Saints – Andrew Brayshaw
183cm, 80kg
The brother of Melbourne’s Angus, Brayshaw is a bit smaller and more versatile than his sibling, and has a touch more class as well, potentially making him a good fit for the Saints.
Pick 9 – Western Bulldogs – Nick Coffield
190cm, 85kg
An attacking defender who may wind up a midfielder, Coffield’s height gives him the ability to match up on a versatile range of opponents.
Having lost Bob Murphy and Matthew Boyd to retirement this year, Coffield could be a logical acquisition for the Bulldogs as someone who can slot into a similar role.
Pick 10 – Carlton Blues – Sam Hayes
203cm, 93kg
Although he is considered one of the best prospects in the draft, ruckman Sam Hayes – by virtue of being a ruckman – could prove to be a slider on the night.
Clubs are generally hesitant to draft ruckmen this early, and looking at recent premiership teams you’ll notice none of them have spent big on rucks.
However with a goodly number of high picks lately, Carlton may be willing to buck the trend and pick up Hayes with an eye to making him the successor to 28-year-old Matthew Kreuzer. Someone has to be.
Pick 11 – GWS Giants – Jack Higgins
178cm, 76kg
The classic “that’s what I’d be saying if you weren’t an inch too short” type, Higgins arguably boasts more talent than some of those who I’ve already taken off the board at this point but at his height there are naturally questions about him being a fulltime midfielder.
That’s not a problem for GWS and it’s why it makes sense for him to go here. They could use more dangerous medium and small forwards and he could play Round 1 for them in that role.
Pick 12 – Adelaide Crows – Darcy Fogarty
192cm, 92kg
A contender for the number one pick at the start of the year who failed to come on due to injury as much as anything else, Fogarty is the best South Australian prospect on the table and it would be a dream come true for Adelaide if he slips to this pick.
He’s played both in the midfield and as a tallish forward, the Crows would probably expect him to be a midfielder longterm. I like the fact that, unlike most other prospects left on the board now, he’s more forward-leaning rather than being a behind-the-ball type.
Pick 13 – West Coast Eagles – Aiden Bonar
190cm, 89kg
One of the harder prospects to place in the draft pool, Bonar has already been through two ACL reconstructions but the blend of speed and power he has shown when able to play is electrifying. He’s played both forward and midfield.
It’s not the safest pick available by any means but West Coast have spent years drafting safe types and have a dishwater-dull midfield as a result. It’s time to take a risk.
Pick 14 – Sydney Swans – Charlie Constable
190cm, 83kg
Compared by many to Carlton’s Patrick Cripps, Constable has developed from being more of a general defender into a genuine big-bodied inside midfielder.
In the absence of any obvious need here Sydney can afford to take best available. Constable would learn a lot from and likely eventually replace Josh P Kennedy.
Pick 15 – Brisbane Lions – Lochie O’Brien
184cm, 75kg
An outside midfielder with line-breaking ability and good kick, O’Brien would add another layer of class to Brisbane’s emerging young midfield.
Pick 16 – Richmond Tigers (matching bid from Western Bulldogs) – Patrick Naish
180cm, 69kg
A slightly-built outside midfielder/forward, Naish will likely join the Tigers as a father-son pick. As is always the case with players of his size, the question on him is how much he can eventually bulk up.
Pick 17 – Western Bulldogs – Noah Balta
194cm, 92kg
Balta is a bit difficult to place in the draft due to not having really settled in one position and being a more raw prospect than some, but his athleticism and booming kick put him in the conversation as one of the best talls in the draft.
Pick 18 – Brisbane Lions – Jack Petrucelle
185cm, 77kg
He would be a bit of a bolter at this pick, but Petrucelle is the fastest player in the draft and having brought a diverse range of young talent into the club lately, that might be a point of difference that appeals to Brisbane.
Pick 19 – Gold Coast Suns – Hunter Clark
186cm, 79kg
A regular victim of leather poisoning, Clark is an inside midfielder ball magnet who would help balance out the abundance of flanker-types that Gold Coast has drafted over the years.
Pick 20 – Richmond Tigers – Oscar Allen
191cm, 83kg
A WA-born key forward who won the Larke Medal as the best Division One player in the national championships, Allen might prove to be a little shorter that most AFL key forwards, but perhaps that’s the way the league is trending.
Olivia Watts
Roar Guru
The Swans don't get a look in at the top tier so all the classy mids will be gone - a blessing in a way as we have ample stocks in that area. Other than some outright speed it seems to me that we have most areas on the ground well served with talent ant that our most pressing need is a Rance-type KPD. Last year we saw Aliir go off the boil - and I'm not sure he will come back given his off field concerns which might make him head home at the end of 2018- and Rampe get attacked by that vicious fence chain and despite the efforts of Dawson, Melican and co., plunge us to O-6. before we got our act together. Josh, if we elect to use pick 14 on a quick, agile key defender to prepare for Grundy's retirement, whom would you be recommending/hoping slips through as the best likely to be available? If we chose another player type who would you be looking at, and why? I'm looking forward to big years from Wil Hayward, Tom Papley, Darcy Cameron and Toby Pink as well as a much stronger and wiser Oliver Florent; your thoughts there would also be appreciated. Do you agree? Do you see any medium term holes we need to address? Thanks for your input
Vinnie
Guest
Bonar too risky to take with our first selection. If he were still there at 21 reckon we should l.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
How many of these Top 20 do you think will be impacted by Father Son / Academy picks?
DingoGray
Roar Guru
I'd be tempted to try and upgrade within 6 months if I was the Lions..... Whether he signs is a completely different story.
Don Freo
Guest
Shared a house with Langdon and Blakely. Some people have houses that allow boys to have girlfriends sharing with them. Welcome to the last 50 years.
Jon boy
Guest
No he had a girlfriend.
Jon boy
Guest
Freo will obviously take one of the big 3 and i agree with Johnno and others who obviously know talent,Must take Fogarty at 5 take the best not where they are born.
Jon boy
Guest
Fancy my "favourite docker" being my nephew, probably change his tune again.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Kane that’s because you don’t understand how the points system works. They can use that seemingly worthless pick for the points required for an Oakleigh academy player they have been watching for some years.
dontknowmuchaboutfootball
Guest
Oh, I agree that Freo won't take Fogarty at 2, or at 5 for that matter. But I'd like him for Freo. I expect Freo will take best available at 2 (one of Rayner, Dow and Davies-Uniacke, or maybe, just maybe Stephenson, which I'd be very happy about too), and then probably Naughton at 5. I can't help but feel that picking Naughton would leave Freo with a surfeit of KPDs who are as yet unproven as genuine swingmen, but I also appreciate the philosophy of recruiting primo local talent when its available.
Ditto
Guest
I take back what I said about Freo thinking about Brayshaw at 2, only Rayner and Dow are on that list. However, I do think North will pick him at 4.
Ditto
Guest
Freo won't take Fogarty at 2, if Brisbane pass on him, he'll still be there at 5. I think Freo will take Naughton at 5, he's WA, he's KPP, he's an opportunity that Freo up until recently didn't have, they can play Logue up forward. If Fogarty does get past 5, then I think he's every chance to slip to Adelaide at 12.
Sammy
Guest
Well considering mitch signed on with the crows for another 3 years and jeremy is out of contract and a rfa? at the end of next year...
dontknowmuchaboutfootball
Guest
I'm keen on Fogarty for Freo, but if Brisbane pass on Rayner, then Freo simply have to take him at No.2, play him as many games as possible, from the get go. Then, if he wants to go home, trade him in two years' time to a Vic team for something really special (maybe to Melbourne for Hogan).
Doctor Rotcod
Guest
I see it the other way round.Mitch will blossom at the Eagles.Jeremy will get recognition as the best backman of his generation.
sammy
Guest
Pav was well before all this free agency mumbo jumbo and the effect it has had on players coming out of contract moving about. However by then Mitch McGovern will be one of the premier forwards in the league and his brother Jeremy will be killing it at the defensive end for the crows :-)....Come on down Mr Fogarty
Don Freo
Guest
That won't be a problem for Freo. We'll trade him for your first round pick and Mitch McGovern in his prime as the steak knives.
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
Isn't that what they said over there about Pav?
Kane
Roar Rookie
Not sure how gaining pick 70 is going to help Peter
Sammy
Guest
Interstate teams may as well forget fogarty as he is going to come back to SA at the end of his 3 years with whichever club drafts him as he wants to be a crow..hehehe