The 2011 Brad Pitt film Moneyball was based on a book by Michael Lewis that detailed The Oakland A’s Baseball teams alternative approach to recruitment.
Unable to compete with the massive budgets of clubs like the New York Yankees, Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane (played by Pitt in the film) use a system called ‘sabremetrics’ to assemble an unorthodox team that nonetheless proves to be very competitive.
All coaches – be they of first grade NRL clubs or fantasy football teams – are always on the lookout for those left field choices that turn out to be inspired inclusions.
Even at the pinnacle of rugby league we always love the tale of the lesser promoted players who punch well above their weight and end up outshining some of the more established stars.
The Australian rugby league Kangaroos played and won their three rugby league World Cup pool matches by a combined total of 104-10.
Even within the parameters of those convincing wins we can examine just how the Australian players are performing in this tournament against the expectations of their form coming into this tournament.
And when we do will we find some real value for money performances among the tried and tested performers?
To do this we first must establish a rank order of the 22 players that have taken the field for Australia so far.
There are five main criteria that we will use to rank them in the following order of importance:
(Grant Trouville/NRL Photos)
So, using that ranking methodology, the Australian squad coming into this tournament is ranked as follows:
| Rank | Player | State of Origin | 2017 fantasy league price | Internationals | Total games | First Grade games |
| 1 | C.Smith | 42 | $561,000 | 53 | 411 | 358 |
| 2 | B.Slater | 29 | $382,000 | 27 | 326 | 299 |
| 3 | C.Cronk | 22 | $342,000 | 35 | 358 | 323 |
| 4 | M.Gillett | 18 | $431,000 | 9 | 187 | 178 |
| 5 | A.Woods | 14 | $473,000 | 12 | 158 | 146 |
| 6 | J.Dugan | 12 | $315,000 | 9 | 163 | 154 |
| 7 | D.Klemmer | 9 | $474,000 | 12 | 103 | 91 |
| 8 | B.Cordner | 9 | $429,000 | 13 | 139 | 126 |
| 9 | M.Morgan | 8 | $484,000 | 9 | 137 | 128 |
| 10 | J.McGuire | 8 | $396,000 | 9 | 184 | 175 |
| 11 | D.Gagai | 7 | $431,000 | 2 | 137 | 135 |
| 12 | W.Chambers | 7 | $327,000 | 4 | 176 | 172 |
| 13 | T.Frizell | 5 | $390,000 | 12 | 125 | 113 |
| 14 | W.Graham | 4 | $329,000 | 3 | 204 | 201 |
| 15 | J.Trbojevic | 3 | $507,000 | 3 | 74 | 71 |
| 16 | J.Mansour | 3 | $418,000 | 10 | 112 | 102 |
| 17 | V.Holmes | 2 | $298,000 | 8 | 87 | 79 |
| 18 | C.Munster | 1 | $456,000 | 2 | 67 | 65 |
| 19 | T.Trbojevic | 0 | $421,000 | 2 | 57 | 55 |
| 20 | F.Kaufusi | 0 | $376,000 | 4 | 69 | 65 |
| 21 | R.Campbell-Gillard | 0 | $365,000 | 2 | 72 | 70 |
| 22 | J.McLean | 0 | $291,000 | 3 | 89 | 86 |
It is unsurprising to see the big three of Cam Smith, Billy Slater and Cooper Cronk at the top of this ranking. There is a real aura and power that comes from having been there and done that repeatedly and imperiously for as long as these guys have.
It is also unsurprising to see the likes of Reagan Campbell-Gillard, Joran McLean and Felise Kaufusi at the other extreme. I’ll admit that I thought each was fortunate to be picked in the squad.
So now the three pool matches have been played who has excelled, who has maintained their form and who is yet to fire?
If we compare each player’s average statistics from NRL season 2017 against those from this competition we should get a good insight into the actual form.
Just as the sabremetrics used by the Oakland A’s was based primarily around the key statistic of “getting on base” so too does each position have crucial statistics.
Forwards: Runs per game, metres gained, tackle breaks, tackles, errors, offloads, missed tackles
Halves: Line break assists, try assists
Backs: Line Breaks, tries, tackle breaks, metres gained
These are the essential tasks of each cohort and what they are essentially measured by.
So how do the Kangaroos players rank after the pool matches? We’ll start in reverse order. (all statistics are averages)
22. Valentines Holmes
Holmes is down in crucial stats across the board when compared to his 2017 season stats. It is particularly bad in his average metres and tackle breaks.
| Tries | Runs | Metres | Offloads | Line Breaks | Line Break Assists | Try Assists | Tackle Breaks | Tackles | Missed Tackles | Errors | |
| RLWC | 0.3 | 9.7 | 117 | 0 | 0.7 | 0 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 1 |
| 2017 | 0.3 | 14.7 | 155 | 0.59 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 3.6 | 3 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
(Brendan Esposito / NRL Photos)
21. Aaron Woods
The Bulldog bound Woods is down on his essential runs, metres and tackle break stats – that’s his bread and butter. Add to that his penalties conceded have gone right up.
| Tries | Runs | Metres | Offloads | Line Breaks | Line Break Assists | Try Assists | Tackle Breaks | Tackles | Missed Tackles | Errors | |
| RLWC | 0 | 12 | 123 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 25.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 2017 | 0.1 | 15.8 | 144 | 2.05 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0 | 1 | 30 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
20. Jake Trbojevic
This is a bit unfair as Trbojevic the Elder got injured in the first game and that’s why his stats are down.
| Tries | Runs | Metres | Offloads | Line Breaks | Line Break Assists | Try Assists | Tackle Breaks | Tackles | Missed Tackles | Errors | |
| RLWC | 0 | 11 | 87 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 1 | 0 |
| 2017 | 0.4 | 13 | 115 | 0.96 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0 | 1 | 38 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
19. Will Chambers
I believe Will Chambers to be one of the best centres in the game who would be a star in any side, not just the Storm. However, his RLWC stats are down across the board as compared to his 2017 stats. And while his errors and penalties are good, just look at those missed tackles.
| Tries | Runs | Metres | Offloads | Line Breaks | Line Break Assists | Try Assists | Tackle Breaks | Tackles | Missed Tackles | Errors | |
| RLWC | 0 | 13.5 | 125 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 19 | 5 | 0 |
| 2017 | 0.3 | 14.3 | 122 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 2 | 16 | 2.3 | 1 |
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
18. Felise Kaufusi
Kaufusi is new to the side so he may be finding his feet. However, his stats have dropped across the board as compared to his 2017 season with the Storm.
| Tries | Runs | Metres | Offloads | Line Breaks | Line Break Assists | Try Assists | Tackle Breaks | Tackles | Missed Tackles | Errors | |
| RLWC | 0 | 8 | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20.5 | 1 | 0 |
| 2017 | 0.3 | 9.7 | 81 | 0.85 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 33 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
17. Josh Mansour
The bearded winger they call “Man sauce” is usually worth the price of admission on his own. However, this World Cup he’s yet to score a try, break the line, offload the ball, and his tackle breaks are down – although his missed tackles are great.
| Tries | Runs | Metres | Offloads | Line Breaks | Line Break Assists | Try Assists | Tackle Breaks | Tackles | Missed Tackles | Errors | |
| RLWC | 0 | 13.5 | 162 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| 2017 | 0.3 | 16.1 | 151 | 1.33 | 0.3 | 0 | 0.1 | 5.7 | 6 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
(Dave Howarth/PA via AP)
16. Tom Trbojevic
The lanky kid from the northern beaches is still finding his way so his stats are a little down across the board.
| Tries | Runs | Metres | Offloads | Line Breaks | Line Break Assists | Try Assists | Tackle Breaks | Tackles | Missed Tackles | Errors | |
| RLWC | 0.5 | 15.5 | 150 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 1 |
| 2017 | 0.5 | 18 | 174 | 0.74 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 3.6 | 5 | 1.2 | 1.7 |
15. Matt Gillett
Gillett has high missed tackles for a back rower. However, his runs and metres being down are the issue this World Cup.
| Tries | Runs | Metres | Offloads | Line Breaks | Line Break Assists | Try Assists | Tackle Breaks | Tackles | Missed Tackles | Errors | |
| RLWC | 0.5 | 7.5 | 67 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 2 | 35.5 | 3 | 0.5 |
| 2017 | 0.3 | 11.4 | 92 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 2 | 37 | 3.5 | 0.8 |
(Image: NRL)
14. Josh McGuire
Just like his Bronco teammate Gillett, the head-taped McGuire is also down on runs and metres.
| Tries | Runs | Metres | Offloads | Line Breaks | Line Break Assists | Try Assists | Tackle Breaks | Tackles | Missed Tackles | Errors | |
| RLWC | 0 | 11 | 102 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 28 | 1 | 0 |
| 2017 | 0.1 | 14.8 | 132 | 0.52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 34 | 2.3 | 0.2 |
13. Michael Morgan
Michael Morgan’s runs and metres are slightly up, as are his line breaks and line break assists. However, his tackle breaks have fallen and his missed tackles and errors aren’t good.
| Tries | Runs | Metres | Offloads | Line Breaks | Line Break Assists | Try Assists | Tackle Breaks | Tackles | Missed Tackles | Errors | |
| RLWC | 0 | 9 | 87 | 0.5 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 2 | 11.5 | 4 | 2 |
| 2017 | 0.4 | 7.5 | 61 | 0.85 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 3.1 | 13 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
(Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images)
12. Jordan McLean
The Storm prop – by way of Young, NSW – has entered the international arena well. He has slightly improved his metres and his missed tackles are down.
| Tries | Runs | Metres | Offloads | Line Breaks | Line Break Assists | Try Assists | Tackle Breaks | Tackles | Missed Tackles | Errors | |
| RLWC | 0 | 10.3 | 112.3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 23.7 | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| 2017 | 0 | 9.9 | 98 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 23 | 1.1 | 0.1 |
11. Reagan Campbell-Gillard
The moustachioed Panther, like McLean, has made a solid start to his international career, slightly improving in a number of his key stats.
| Tries | Runs | Metres | Offloads | Line Breaks | Line Break Assists | Try Assists | Tackle Breaks | Tackles | Missed Tackles | Errors | |
| RLWC | 0 | 12.5 | 134.5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 | 26 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 2017 | 0.1 | 12.1 | 119 | 0.42 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0 | 1.5 | 30 | 2.9 | 0.3 |
(NRL Photos/Grant Trouville)
10. David Klemmer
Klemmer’s offloads are down but then so are his missed tackles. Apart from that it has been business as usual for the big unit.
| Tries | Runs | Metres | Offloads | Line Breaks | Line Break Assists | Try Assists | Tackle Breaks | Tackles | Missed Tackles | Errors | |
| RLWC | 0 | 13 | 141.3 | 0 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 16 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 2017 | 0 | 16.7 | 152 | 0.62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 25 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
9. Boyd Cordner
Cordner’s tackle breaks are slightly down but his line breaks are slightly up. The Roosters captain is continuing his great 2017 form.
| Tries | Runs | Metres | Offloads | Line Breaks | Line Break Assists | Try Assists | Tackle Breaks | Tackles | Missed Tackles | Errors | |
| RLWC | 0.5 | 14 | 147 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 17 | 1 | 0.5 |
| 2017 | 0.3 | 15.3 | 140 | 0.11 | 0.5 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 31 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
(AAP Image/Dave Hunt)
8. Tyson Frizell
The Dragon back rower continues to give great service in the representative arena. He is committed to the cause.
| Tries | Runs | Metres | Offloads | Line Breaks | Line Break Assists | Try Assists | Tackle Breaks | Tackles | Missed Tackles | Errors | |
| RLWC | 0.5 | 10.5 | 110.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 3 | 25.5 | 1 | 0.5 |
| 2017 | 0 | 10.8 | 98 | 0.91 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0 | 2.1 | 30 | 1.5 | 0.2 |
7. Cooper Cronk
The Roosters bound half back continues to play his controlling hand well, with his missed tackles even better than usual.
| Tries | Runs | Metres | Offloads | Line Breaks | Line Break Assists | Try Assists | Tackle Breaks | Tackles | Missed Tackles | Errors | |
| RLWC | 0 | 3 | 20.5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 14.5 | 1 | 0.5 |
| 2017 | 0.3 | 5 | 44 | 0.27 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 15 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
(AAP Image/Paul Miller)
6. Cameron Smith
The Australian Captain’s stats are good across the board. However, they don’t measure his greatest attribute: Game management.
| Tries | Runs | Metres | Offloads | Line Breaks | Line Break Assists | Try Assists | Tackle Breaks | Tackles | Missed Tackles | Errors | |
| RLWC | 0 | 5 | 41 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 27.7 | 0.7 | 0 |
| 2017 | 0.1 | 5.2 | 45 | 0.57 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 41 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
5. Dane Gagai
Hard to believe that the Broncos let this bloke go. He excelled in the 2017 Origin series and he is continuing that great form at the World Cup. Every time he runs the ball he means it.
| Tries | Runs | Metres | Offloads | Line Breaks | Line Break Assists | Try Assists | Tackle Breaks | Tackles | Missed Tackles | Errors | |
| RLWC | 0.5 | 16.5 | 180 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.5 | 7.5 | 1 | 0.5 |
| 2017 | 0.1 | 14.1 | 122 | 0.57 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 5.8 | 13 | 3.3 | 0.8 |
(NRLPhotos/Gregg Porteous)
4. Billy Slater
The old man from Innisfail seems as good as ever. His metres and tackle breaks particularly good – although he needs to cut down on the errors.
| Tries | Runs | Metres | Offloads | Line Breaks | Line Break Assists | Try Assists | Tackle Breaks | Tackles | Missed Tackles | Errors | |
| RLWC | 1 | 11.5 | 156.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6.5 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
| 2017 | 0.5 | 13.3 | 116 | 2.05 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 4.1 | 6 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
3. Josh Dugan
The tattooed miscreant is Shire bound in 2018 and he is throwing himself into this World Cup to prove he’s worth the effort. The Sharks fans would be liking what they are seeing a great deal.
| Tries | Runs | Metres | Offloads | Line Breaks | Line Break Assists | Try Assists | Tackle Breaks | Tackles | Missed Tackles | Errors | |
| RLWC | 1 | 14 | 197 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 4 | 8.5 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 2017 | 0.2 | 13.6 | 134 | 0.82 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 5.3 | 6 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
(AAP Image/Lukas Coch)
2. Wade Graham
Graham’s try scoring efforts have been top notch. While his runs and metres are down, so are his missed tackles which are usually a problem.
| Tries | Runs | Metres | Offloads | Line Breaks | Line Break Assists | Try Assists | Tackle Breaks | Tackles | Missed Tackles | Errors | |
| RLWC | 1.3 | 5.7 | 59.3 | 0 | 1.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 0.7 |
| 2017 | 0.2 | 11.3 | 98 | 1 | 0.4 | 0 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 26 | 3 | 0.7 |
1. Cam Munster
Make no mistake, Cam Munster has really announced himself in 2017.
He is the real deal.
Moulded in the heart of the Bellamy empire, he not only has the dynamic skills to be a superstar, he has the determination and focus.
In Moneyball terms, Munster consistently ‘gets on base.’ He will be a fixture in rep teams in the one, four or six jersey for a long time to come.
| Tries | Runs | Metres | Offloads | Line Breaks | Line Break Assists | Try Assists | Tackle Breaks | Tackles | Missed Tackles | Errors | |
| RLWC | 2 | 7.5 | 94 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6.5 | 14 | 1 | 0.5 |
| 2017 | 0 | 10.9 | 94 | 1.57 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 3.6 | 20 | 2.3 | 0.6 |
(Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images)
Further, three of the Kangaroos five top performing players by this metric – Dane Gagai, Wade Graham and Cam Munster – all fall into the Moneyball category in that they are providing far greater value than their notional ranking within the squad suggested coming into this tournament.
Conversely, the likes of Aaron Woods and Valentine Holmes are seemingly failing to deliver on big expectations.
The good news for these players – and all of us fans – is that we’ve now got the business end of the tournament and we’ll surely see even more great action.
And you can bet there will be more than a few one percenters from the money ball players that ensure their value when it matters most.
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Dr Chop
Guest
How'd you and Ahmed go against Lawrence and Arthur?
Bunney
Roar Rookie
What I've seen of Michael Morgan in the WC has been that he's on fire. Awesome the last two games and deservedly the no.6 for the Roos. Big Mal needs to drop one of his two backrowers (Frizzell or Graham) for Munster to be a true bench utility for the final.
GWSINGAPORE
Guest
Which Kangaroos are providing the best value-for-money. The four kangaroo fillets I bought at the gourmet butcher in Dempsey Hill now sitting in my freezer in Singapore.
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
Hi Tim, I enjoyed your article as always. Matt is correct that “using the Moneyball theory with a representative team is flawed”. Everything is relative to salary v performance, and to take it to the next step, how you measure performance. Have you got the correct analytics for each position and have they been weighted correctly? The most important stat is what option the playmaker does on the last tackle, which is why the Roosters have signed Cronk. This can only partly be measured analytically and is 90% video analysis. If I were going to buy two players from the Aust 22 to start from scratch based on your ratings, they would be Michael Morgan (9th) and Tom Trbojevic (19th).
Sports Prophet
Roar Pro
Yeah, those 11 tries in two games really is a sub performance from Holmes...
Duncan Smith
Guest
Five tries followed by six. What a weak player!
craig3
Roar Rookie
What's the stat when an outside centre is that dangerous he draws in the opposing centre and winger on suspicion and doesn't get the ball, it goes straight to the winger and skips in for a try.
Renegade
Roar Guru
Holmes should be 1... broken the try scoring record two weeks in a row.
Tim Gore
Expert
All good ideas but very detailed stats that are hard to het hold of.
Matt
Guest
Tim, using the Moneyball theory with a representative team is flawed. You don't have a salary cap or budget when picking a rep team. Meaning you pick the best players available. Whilst I think Munster is the best player in the game under the age of 25, Cronk, Slater and Smith are more valuable than him in the hear and now of a rep team. Add to that players like Gillett, Cordner and Chambers would be penciled in ahead of him. For a marquee player for a new team entering the comp he is close to number one though. Premiership player, Origin and Test player. He ticks the boxes plus he has youth on his side.
Gray-Hand
Guest
Not really? I might be misreading the statistics, but his average metres per run are actually higher in the world cup matches than they were during the 2017 season. Same with Matt Gillett (maybe others, but those are the only two I checked). So, it would appear that while they are sharing more of the load and not having to make as many runs, they are actually bashing the minnows a bit and making more metres each time they get the ball.
Gray-Hand
Guest
It really isn’t something you can quantify, but I would say that most of the best game managers have a strong tactical kicking game, and kicking determines territory, so maybe the following: 1. Kicks that are regathered successfully. 2. Kicks that find the ground rather than those that get caught on the full by a defender. 3. Kicks that force dropouts. 4. 40/20s For passing: 1. For the dummy half: metres made in the first 3 (4?) tackles. 2. For the halves : metres and line breaks made in the last 2 tackles. 3. Try assists. It is hard to game management in defence, because we really don’t know in any significant detail who is really responsible for organising defencive structures. If we knew who called individual attacking plays, it would be a lot easier, but for the most part that’s pretty difficult to know, especially those of us who watch on TV.
Greg
Guest
Where's Ben Hunt and James Maloney?
Greg
Guest
Holmes also only played 10 mins off the bench against France which is severely bringing down his per game averages which Tim didn't take into account
Nick
Roar Guru
"Sweet, sw sw sw sw swee swee sweet sw sweet candy."
Tim Gore
Expert
"Your tears say more than real evidence ever could."
Tim Gore
Expert
A good point gray hand, a more even spread perhaps. But Woods - against minnow nations - should be making bigger metres surely?
Nick
Roar Guru
Hold on, Aaron Woods is not delivering on big expectations? Aaron Woods? Tim, you must be mistaken. Aaron Woods is a hard running, tireless performer who brings essential grunt and power to the Australian/NSW/club forward pack. If I could find any footage of this - anywhere, anywhere at all - then I'm sure you'll agree in no time! But YouTube must be broken at the moment, because I can't find any footage.
Tim Gore
Expert
A very good point! I know you can't see my DB but to do that would be quite tricky. I yearn for the perfect system where I can jam in all the hard data easily and then interrogate it in the advanced manners that people want - myself included. Every time I achieve a goal in reporting we find another mountain to climb. I think a lot of the stats may be lower (run metres, tackles, hit up etc) because they've been winning easy? But surely that would mean some would sky rocket? Maybe its a more even spread throughout the team?
beepee
Guest
That was my thought too, Albo. Different coaches have different structures, and that means varying opportunities depending on where you do or don't fit. So for example, Michael Morgan is the main playmaker at the Cowboys just now (until JT returns of course), so he gets plenty of ball. At the WC, his opportunities are more limited because the Storm spine dictate what happens. So through no fault of his own, his numbers may differ from his club performances. Nonetheless, an interesting read, thanks Tim.