My favourite scene in the history of cinema is the climax of Raiders of the Lost Ark, when the Nazis open the Ark of the Covenant.
What they find inside is so powerful, so next-level, beyond ordinary humanity that their faces melt clean off – the punishment of God for daring to look at something man should never gaze upon.
If you’ve read a bit of what I’ve written about Geelong lately, you might have heard me use this as a metaphor for the trio of Joel Selwood, Patrick Dangerfield and Gary Ablett once or twice already.
My sincere apologies for the repetition – but there’s just nothing else that better describes the feeling of awe and terror I get when I consider what it’s going to be like to see these three, probably all first-choice players in a best 22 of the millennium so far, on the field together.
Between them they boast three Brownlow Medals, 19 All Australian selections and 12 club best-and-fairest awards. Together they averaged a combined 88 disposals, 21 clearances and 2.6 goals per match in 2018 (1.9 of those goals coming from Danger).
All up they have a total of 580 career Brownlow votes. In fact, if you were to look up the top three current AFL players for career Brownlow votes – well, it’s Gary Ablett, Joel Selwood and Patrick Dangerfield (with Scott Pendlebury equal third).
It might be the best midfield trio assembled in the history of the game. Even if not, there is no doubting that it is the best midfield trio you’ll find at any club in the competition right now, and by some margin.
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We’ve seen two open seasons of footy in a row where the best teams are very good, certainly, but not great – not on the level of the ‘superteams’ we’ve seen Brisbane, Geelong and Hawthorn put on the field since the turn of the millennium.
Gary Ablett’s return to the Cats may well have brought an end to that brief era. A Geelong side that can name a midfield trio like that – and has Mitch Duncan as the best fourth-midfielder in the competition – might be in a league of its own.
There are concerns, sure. Ablett’s fitness is no guarantee – he has missed 39 of a possible 88 games in his last four years. If his body breaks down, the Cats may find themselves exactly where they were in 2016 and 2017 – so close, but so far.
And of course because the football gods like to laugh at my article-writing plans, it was reported yesterday that Ablett has picked up a minor hamstring injury – though Geelong are confident he’ll be ready for Round 1.
There’s a very real chance that this all collapses in a heap and proves to be a major embarrassment for the Cats (and me). But it wouldn’t be much of a prediction if there wasn’t.
What are the chances though that a move home just makes it that much easier for Ablett to stay healthy and have a consistent performance across the season, perhaps resting for one or two matches but being fit and ready to go in finals? 50-50 maybe? I like those odds.
So yes – the Geelong Cats are my tip to win the flag in 2018. And Gary Ablett is undoubtedly the biggest reason why. But, he’s not the only one.
In terms of new arrivals, Ablett was certainly the main event in the offseason, but the Cats – considering they didn’t have a pick inside the top 20 – also did well in the drafts.
With their first selection, No.22, they took Lachlan Fogarty – a tough small forward who wasn’t expected to be there that late with Brisbane and Gold Coast both reportedly keen on picking him in the teens.
They followed that up by taking mature-age star WAFL midfielder Tim Kelly with pick 24. Kelly had 26 disposals per game in the WAFL last year, kicked 26 goals from 24 appearances, and finished second in the Sandover Medal.
Charlie Constable came next, at pick 36, a big inside midfielder who was expected to go higher by many. Small forward Gryan Miers followed, pick 57, having kicked seven goals for the Geelong Falcons as they won their first TAC Cup grand final in 17 years.
Lastly, Geelong threw a lifeline to former Bomber and Bulldog Stewart Crameri in the rookie draft. I’ll admit I was pretty sceptical of this being a good move at the time, but the more thought I put into it, the more I like it.
Constable and Miers are both going to need some time to develop before they’re ready to play senior football, but I wouldn’t be surprised if all three of Fogarty, Kelly and Crameri debut for the Cats in Round 1, and together have a serious impact in 2018.
Throw in a return to the backline for Harry Taylor now that Tom Lonergan has finished up – and hey, how about an injury-free breakout season for Nakia Cockatoo while we’re at it – and there’s plenty of good reasons why Geelong can go all the way.
Cat
Roar Guru
Motlop is a terrible midfielder. Boak has been declining for a few years now. Rockliff is great at contested ball but that's about it, he is a bit one dimensional.
Cat
Roar Guru
Losing Motlop is addition by subtraction. Sure he may have a good game or two but he also have 15 games a year where he can't be bothered to put in any effort. He is also allergic to anything physical. Tim Kelly will fill Motlop's former role just fine. Lonergan is another addition by subtraction. Glacially slow. Always hand balled to a teammate under pressure and made Geelong's transition out of defence way too slow. Mackie probably could have played on another year, but he isn't irreplaceable. Good rebounder, not much of a defender.
Shane
Guest
Gray, Rockliff, Wines, Wingard, Motlop and Boak ain't a bad midfield either.
Shane
Guest
The loss of Motlop and the loss of retired players means Geelong does not improve this year. When Motlop played well often Geelong played well. He was one of their best in the finals.
Fraser
Guest
The Cats do muck around in defence and then bomb it in to a stagnant Hawkins. In particular, 2016 was abysmal and painful to watch, because the game plan was not the "Geelong way" at all.. Chris Scott did win a premiership in his first year, but THAT team was too good for him to stuff up. The problem is his "zone defence", whereby our players guard grass, which allows any team with quick ball movement to cut through. We won't win another flag until Chris Scott is gone.
Bangkokpussey
Roar Rookie
Why does news about Geelong ilicit such a negative response from some supporters? They constantly predict Geelongs fall from grace and slide down to the cellar region of the ladder. When they don't, all the supposed Geelong advantages are wheeled out. Home ground advantage for one. Don't all interstate teams and particularly MCG based teams that get the advantage at the finals. And most others have more home games. Geelong does not have the advantages of the interstate clubs and has probably had the smallest percentage of high draft picks in the competition since the inception of the draft. They play a more open style of football which IMO is more entertaining to watch than a lot of the more dour teams that play with little flair. Many of the knockers support the older clubs which waxed the premiership between them in the "old" days. Poor recruiting and administration have seen them slip from their priviledged position and have to compete on a more even playing field with the rest. Geelong has had to rely on its good administration and list management to stay competitive while others have squandered a myriad of high draft picks through poor admin and list management for literally years. At the end of season there are 8 potential winners. If Geelong is there every year it doesn't prevent the other 7 from winning.The premiership is not always won by the best team for a variety of reasons. If it was, then Adelaide would now be premiers.
Wilson
Roar Rookie
Correct. I like their overall lists a lot better and their ceiling is much higher given the bulk of their talent is young. Either team could explode this season.
InvisiblePJs
Roar Rookie
Good comment about the Brisbane early 2000s midfield - the one that always seems forgotten at the same time is Luke Power - he was far more than average too!
Brendon the 1st
Guest
That West Coast midfield was pretty special at their peak, Judds left hand bounce in the GF was amazing. I've been wanting to see an article on who has the best midfield in the league for a while, maybe that's something The Roar could have a look at?
Brendon the 1st
Guest
I'm sick of hearing about how good the big Sook Dangerfield is, overrated ball hog that burns the ball most of the time. Good yeah, great, probably, but get over it, Dusty and Fyfe, are both easily better than him as are Selwood, Ablett, Pendlebury, Kennedy, Beams, Zorko, Sloane, Gray and Parker, and that's just midfielders, what about Betts, McGovern, Franklin, Rance, Kennedy? I'd have every single one of these players in my team before Dangerfield. Brownlow votes pfft, remember when Wanganeen lost the Brownlow in 04? Criminal! or when Wowoedin and then Priddis won the blimmin thing? That award means bugger all. Geelong would better off with a starting 3 of Ablett, Selwood and Duncan, all of whom can actually kick and will pass a ball to a team mate once in a while.
Glenn
Guest
Saved me saying it. Only 1 player can get the ball at any one time to take it out of the middle and Geelong didn't seem to have much of a problem with that already, so where is the benefit in the middle. They will be more of a threat if one of Danger or Ablett is a permanent forward. That is a worry, but having all 3 in the middle is not. And to say that an aging Ablett, plus Danger and Selwood, plus who was that again at 4th, where 2 have fairly average disposal skills is possibly better than Voss, Black, Akermanis and Lappin who had a number of seasons together at their peak is laughable. Would take Judd, Kerr and Cousins over that 3 as well.
Joe
Guest
You think Melbourne and Essendon are more likely to win the flag than Geelong?
Joe
Guest
"he has missed 44% of games in the past four years, so logically that figure can only get worse." That isn't how logic works.
Joe
Guest
Ablett's injuries are obviously a concern, but there is a massive different between 'some concerns' and 'the team won't benefit from his talent'. Wait and see.
Cat
Roar Guru
Maybe all these players aren't really 'sliding' and its just the media that love to over hype everyone and have no clue what they are actually talking about.
Cat
Roar Guru
Selwood and Dangerfield both hover around the $800k mark. Ablett signed a new 2 year deal with the Cats rumored to be around $350k/yr. All three could have gotten a lot more on the open market. All three are on team friendly deals. There is no salary cap pressure because of them.
Howie
Roar Pro
Geelong look good for a crack for the next 2 years. Will these 3 superstars fit together though? How will they deal with overlapping roles? Has the salary cap requirements meant to many of the supporting cast are merely extras? It will be interesting.
Stewie
Guest
Swans have had heaps. Membrey was a steal, as were Parker and Hannebery at the time. Will Hayward two years ago slid about 10 places more than he was predicted.
Dave
Guest
Geelong have been very successful last couple of seasons the negative being thier finals losses. If they can nurse Garry through the season and have him fit for finals it might enough for them to take a flag. Experience and smarts is pretty handy at that time of year. I vaguely remember a team chock full of early draft picks and some old slow but very crafty bloke named stevie being the biggest factor in a finals win.
Mattician6x6
Guest
Still a lot of what ifs with Geelong. Fwd line is forgettable and Taylor probably will lose a yard of pace this year so his return back isn't a fanfare occasion. On paper that midfield looks great but I would say gws will have its number this year ( cognilio, shiel, ward & Kelly is a lot scarier)