Super Rugby Round 5: Not-quite-must-win round

A month into the Super Rugby season we’re starting to get an idea about some sides, starting to worry about others, and may well have lost all confidence in another group altogether.

This equates to a Round 5 featuring games that, if not quite in the same ‘must win’ ballpark as at the pointy end of the season, they’re not far off.

Last week, Nobes, the quiet achiever, took the biggest advantage among all the upset carnage, snaring six from seven, and opening up a two-point lead overall.

And the poor old Crowd; three from seven. Ye-ouch.

Nobes
Tips: Chiefs, Highlanders, Brumbies, Blues, Lions, Jaguares, Waratahs

The Bulls will find their matador at Waikato. Last weekend their lost to an apparently weak Reds team opened many questions on their staff and players.

I do not know which of the injured players from Crusaders will be ready to take the field on the weekend, so I will go with the safe home bet and take the Highlanders. The Brumbies will bounce back and beat the Sharks in a close match.

The Stormers will not get over injuries and their long losing tour, so the Blues will consolidate what they did against the Lions.

My Powerplay goes to the Lions over the Sunwolves, while the Jaguares will prove they are a real threat and bite the Reds in an ugly match under the expected rain.

There are only two unbeaten team after four rounds and one of them is Melbourne, but the Waratahs will capture crucial points at home and end the impressive Rebels’ run.

Sure thing: The two unbeaten teams will have a hard time this weekend and only one will be left standing.

Harry
Tips: Chiefs, Highlanders, Sharks, Stormers, Lions, Jaguares, Rebels

Nobes’ Jaguares showed their claws. Will it last? The Chiefs get their talisman back. Will it be enough? Have the Blues really woken up? Will the Sharks win in Canberra because Akker van der Merwe cannot be tackled, and resembles Digger? Will the Rebels ignite a serious Melbourne-Sydney rugby union rivalry?

I’ll go with the Chiefs, because the Bulls scrum backwards like a Waikato blackwater raft. The high-offload, good-Smith-bad-Smith Highlanders over the perhaps undisciplined Crusaders.

The mean-and-nasty-but-fast-and-tasty Sharks will steal a win on the road, but the Stormers should grow an extra leg at home. The game Sunwolves should ship 80 points to the embarrassed Lions.

The Reds won’t handle the Jaguares’ full-court press, while the Rebels will stay unbeaten because bomber pilot Bernard Foley misses the target.

Sure thing: The first serious axe-the-coach talk of the season is in Sydney.

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Digger
Tips: Chiefs, Highlanders, Brumbies, Stormers, Lions, Jaguares, Rebels

The Bulls have still given no reason to tip them away from home, so the Chiefs will win, despite their extensive injury issues.

Despite a mental block against their neighbours, I am backing the Highlanders at home; when comparing the list of available and unavailable big names it does seem a no brainer.

In Australia, neither side has shown any great form for the match in Canberra, so when in doubt, go the home side – the Brumbies. In Sydney, it’s the Rebels all the way based on respective form.

Over to the Republic, and it’s the Lions in a canter, while I have settled on the Stormers at home despite the Blues’ great win last weekend (the Blues have yet to show they can be trusted to perform on a weekly basis).

Finally, in Argentina, the Jaguares will have too many points in them for the Reds.

Sure thing: After the flack he copped in this column, Raymond Rhule will now score the match-winner for the Stormers over the Blues this weekend, after managing to trip Reiko Ioane in the previous plays.

Bautista Delguy of Jaguares (Photo by Gabriel Rossi/Getty Images)

Brett
Tips: Chiefs, Highlanders, Brumbies, Stormers, Lions, Jaguares, Rebels

Easy ones first, because that’s clearly working for me: the Chiefs will be refreshed and barely troubled by the Bulls; the Lions aren’t likely to get the Blues again at home this season, and nor will they cede their place as apex predators to mere Sunwolves. And I just can’t see the Rebels dropping their full set of Australian conference wins.

Tougher ones next: the South Island derbies are always crackers, and games that the Highlanders always get up for, no matter what their form line at the time. Home ground advantage helps the Highlanders, though I’ll always beware the wounded Crusaders. Also, is Mike Delaney really still playing? Highlanders, by enough.

The Reds look well equipped to deal with the confrontational Jaguares, but being at home for another week just gives the the Argies the edge.

Hardest ones last: which Blues will run out at Newlands? I’m not sure it’s those who ran out in the second half at Ellis Park. But – and this is your warning – my strike rate on getting Blues tips right is horrendous. Stormers, just.

There’s maybe only half a dozen sides who loom as a genuine 50-50, with the Brumbies and Sharks are among them. Like the Bulls last week, the Sharks don’t start well on tour either, and I’m praying this will be the case on Saturday. Brumbies at home – but they’re on a yellow card warning.

Sure thing: There’s an upset waiting this weekend. It will happen.

Geoff
Tips: Chiefs, Highlanders, Brumbies, Blues, Lions, Jaguares, Rebels

With an early bye, it feels as if the Chiefs’ season has yet to shift into gear. It will on Friday.

Despite the Crusaders being injury-ravaged, the southern derby has been a standout in recent years and will no doubt be another ripper. Highlanders at home are the safe bet, but no confidence there.

The Brumbies and Sharks are evenly matched but, because it shapes as an early ‘must win’ for the Brumbies, they get the nod. And if the Blues have kept their feet on the ground following their stunning win in Jo’burg, they will repeat the dose against the Stormers. Lions over Sunwolves is the ‘giveaway’ point for the round.

The Jaguares-Reds shapes as a fascinating contest. Have the locals finally turned a corner to play to their potential? Don’t expect any 26-0 starts this week, but plenty of grunting and butting of heads as Mario Ledesma’s men get home in a tight one.

Even without the travel factor working against the Waratahs, the Rebels look to be a 14-point better side and will finish off the round with a four-from-four sweep of the conference.

Sure thing: No sooner does the dust settle on Ireland’s grand slam victory over England, Waratahs’ CEO Andrew Hore’s mobile phone receives a message: “We need to talk. Eddie.”

Get your votes in now – The Crowd’s tips will be revealed Friday afternoon (AEDT).

Who gets your tip? Got a sure thing yourself? Let us know in the comments below, and enjoy your rugby this weekend.