Footy. It’s back. Welcome.
We’re 173 days into the Richmond reign over the AFL landscape, so it’s only fitting they kick the season off, unfurling the 2017 premiership flag in front of what is sure to be a crowd of 95,000 or more.
The Tigers have made four forced changes to their grand final 22, Shai Bolton coming in for Daniel Rioli, Corey Ellis for Dion Prestia, Jayden Short for Bachar Houli, and Reece Conca for Nathan Broad. It makes them a bit weaker as a group of individuals, but Richmond embodies team better than any other.
Carlton have a number of new faces to show off – Paddy Dow, the pick three from last year’s draft, ex-Kangaroo outside runner Aaron Mullett, 20-year-old Matthew Kennedy from GWS, and Jarrod Garlett, who spent a couple of years at Gold Coast, but gets a second chance.
Richmond were obviously the talk of the off-season after their surge through September, but they also set the standard in the JLT Series too, beating Essendon and North Melbourne by a combined 157 points. Yes, the Bombers list was riddled with illness in the lead-up, and the Roos are not going to be good, but the Tigers still made a statement. Two, in fact. We’re back, and we’re hungry for more.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
But, the Blues were a bit of a quiet achiever in the JLT Series, also winning both their matches. They were able to grind out a win over St Kilda in windy conditions, and then caught fire with an eight goal third term on the way to a narrow victory over Hawthorn. This a new Carlton. Finally, we can smell what they’re cooking.
Dustin Martin versus Patrick Cripps is a battle we all want to see through the middle, and we can expect some goals from each when resting forward too. Look for Trent Cotchin to make a statement on opposition captain Marc Murphy at some stage too. If anyone is going to question Richmond’s hunger this year, the skipper will be there to answer the charge.
The Blues have gone quite tall in defence, defying the Tigers small-ball approach. Liam Jones will take Jack Riewoldt, but the Richmond key forward’s main job will just be to provide a contest when the ball comes in high.
Jacob Townsend will likely get a defensive job on Jacob Weitering, to cut out his intercept influence. The likes of Lachie Plowman and Caleb Marchbank will have to have their wits about them when the ball hits the deck with Jason Castagna, Dan Butler and Shai Bolton around. Kade Simpson has the experience to not get caught, and will be an important playmaker off half-back.
Up the other end of the ground, it would be great to see Alex Rance take on Charlie Curnow, the best of one generation against possibly the best of the next. It’s a scenario that should unfold if David Astbury goes to Levi Casboult, which looks the right fit.
(Photo: Justine Walker/AFL Media)
Richmond looks a more solid outfit across the ground, but so they should be with 18 premiership players running out tonight. Rather than the names though, it’s a gameplan that excelled when pressure was at its fiercest in September, that we can absolutely trust in.
Speaking of September, the Tigers played in front of crowds of 95,000, 95,000 and 100,000 in their three finals last year. The big stage is where they live and breathe.
Meanwhile, Carlton are trying out a new style of play. It’s great to see, but it’s a tough ask to execute perfectly against the best on day one, especially a team that’s biggest strength is taking away opposition ball movement. The Blues will have a crack, but will find it hard to stand up under unrelenting pressure.
The Tigers closed out 2017 with a 48 point win, setting off months of celebrations that haven’t really stopped. What’s to say they can’t open 2018 in the same way.
Richmond by 48.
That’s my Thursday night forecast. What’s yours?
Paul D
Roar Guru
Are you watching? It's been a cracker so far
anon
Roar Pro
TV ratings are a function of interest in a match up.
anon
Roar Pro
I'm sure Richmond-Carlton will be a classic. Nothing like starting the season with a basketcase team that's worst in the league for scoring and play ugly football at the best of times -- against the best team in the league...
Paul D
Roar Guru
Maybe it's because unlike you I don't have a set of blinkers welded to the side of my face, and can see the bigger picture quite easily. Look beyond your own dung-heap for once and you might realise the world isn't all that bad. It must be hard being you. You seem so upset, disappointed and angry with everything
anon
Roar Pro
I must have picked the only neutrals in Australia excited about a Richmond-Carlton match....
Paul D
Roar Guru
Besides if anyone has to go to the G and suck up all the smug grins from 75,000 previously hangdog fans I'd rather it be Carlton fans
Paul D
Roar Guru
I have to go into bat for Carlton here - they don't really get any other marquee games - they don't get ANZAC Day, Queen's Birthday, they don't have a major game over Easter, they got booed off Friday nights - and they still pull a bigger crowd than a lot of clubs who've had more success in recent years Let them have opening night, as we've shown in this thread they and Richmond consistently pull a huge crowd, much bigger then it was in previous years with other participants
Macca
Guest
Never a close game? 2016 the margin was 9 points with the exact same number over scoring shots (23) 2015 was 27 points, 2014 (they played in round 2) but the margin was 2 goals & 2013 it was 5 points with both teams kicking over 100 points so 4 of the past 5 years the first game between these 2 has been under 5 goals and 3 of them inside 2 goals - when will they have a close one!!
13th Man
Guest
Itll be another anticlimactic start to the season, Richmond have looked superb this pre season and i've actually tipped them to go back to back. They'll win by at least 10 goals possibly more. Dusty will pocket 3 more Brownlow votes and the Tiger Army will be up and about. Friday night to be a far better spectacle. I've always disliked Richmond v Carlton as a season opener, its never a close game. I honestly think that both Grand Finalists should get the honour of opening up the season with a bang in a GF replay.
Macca
Guest
It should also be pointed out that the 2016 opening game saw Richmond beat Carlton by just 9 points, 14.8 92 to 12.11 83 - not a bad game.
Cat
Roar Guru
Now you care more about TV ratings than bums in seats? /eyeroll make up your mind.
Macca
Guest
As others have said you can't predict what will be a good game but you can predict who will draw a massive crowd and kicking off the season in front of 70k plus (tonight has less than 1000 tickets left) is a great spectacle.
anon
Roar Pro
I don't really care about what the attendance will be. ONe of the highest rated game of all time was the 2016 prelim in front of 19k people.
Cat
Roar Guru
Now that I think of it you are right, we used to have the GF rematch in round 1, not as the first game of the year. My mistake. Sorry.
Paul D
Roar Guru
Grand final rematches are always highly anticipated, I'm quite happy with those middle of the year when you're relying chiefly on the draw of the two sides to pack it out. Same with showdown. Who wants to watch Adelaide and GWS play a game where they just try and streak upfield at a squillion miles an hour. Like watching a game of pong from the 80's. Slane called it - boring. And apparently Lions vs St Kilda at Etihad would be better than Richmond v Carlton. Righto then
Cat
Roar Guru
It's impossible to guarantee 'a contest'. Pick any two teams and there are blowouts between them sometimes. Look how often the GF has been a blowout and that's supposed to be between the two best teams of the year!
Macca
Guest
" If the Blues get blown away early that will be a real let down," Under Bolton generally speaking the blues have found a way to get back in to the game when they have been blown away early so don't get too disheartened.
TomC
Roar Guru
Hooray! I think most likely Carlton come out with energy and pace and manage to stay with the Tigers for a half, but the premiers eventually grind them down and win by six to eight goals. If the Blues get blown away early that will be a real let down, and it will also be somewhat concerning if Richmond struggle to put them away.
Macca
Guest
What is you definition of a contest?
Macca
Guest
Which of those games would get upward of 70k? Only the grand final rematch which is going to sell out the Adelaide oval in round 2.