Essendon vs Adelaide: Friday night forecast

It’s back. How good.

The slate has been wiped clean and teams get a fresh chance to make their mark on the season, which for the Bombers and Crows will be a welcome opportunity.

It would be simplistic and, frankly, wrong to suggest 2017 was a failure for Essendon or Adelaide, though both sides would have had a bad taste in their mouth after the manner in which their seasons ended and will be keen to get on with it.

A new season means new faces, and there’s no shortage of them in this one. For the Bombers, it’s Jake Stringer, Adam Saad and Devon Smith. For the Crows, it’s Bryce Gibbs and youngsters Darcy Fogarty and Tom Doedee.

In Stringer and Smith, the Dons have added two talented forwards to a front half that already had plenty of potency. The Bombers were 2017’s third highest scoring team during the home-and-away season at 97 points a game.

They’ll miss the creativity of Orazio Fantasia in the early rounds, but Smith and Stringer should provide enough punch for them maintain that standard if the chemistry is right.

That’s a big if. Stringer has been the go-to man for the past three seasons, that won’t be the case sharing the forward-50 with Joe Daniher. He’s not a selfish player, but his opportunities won’t come as often.

He’s at his most dangerous when the ball is on the ground though – he’s essentially an oversized small forward – which is a good thing around Daniher.

For all of Smith’s talent, he burnt Jeremy Cameron and Jon Patton plenty of times chasing personal glory. No doubt John Worsfold has had a word or two with him about such rushes of blood since his arrival at Windy Hill, but surely Leon Cameron had similar conversations.

It might just be who he is. Sometimes you have to take the bad with the good when it comes to small forwards and hope the payoff is worth it.

(Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)

The Crows also have some kinks to work out in the front half with the departure of Charlie Cameron and the injury of skipper Taylor Walker. Cameron’s speed, agility and clean hands make him a tough player to replace, but Adelaide have a habit of figuring it out.

The last time Taylor Walker missed a meaningful game was Round 1 last season when the Crows scored 147 points in a beatdown of GWS [insert joke about Tex missing the grand final here].

You’d think Docklands would give the Bombers a notable advantage and in one way you’d be right. In their nine games at Etihad last season, they averaged better than 105 points a game, compared with 91.5 in all other home-and-away matches.

The closed roof clearly suits their style of ball control into slingshot footy – Adam Saad will enjoy this.

The problem the Bombers face is that it suits the Crows too, which was shown in Round 21 last season when Adelaide spanked Essendon 123-80 in their only appearance at Docklands.

For all their scoring the Dons were an unimpressive 5-4 at their home ground, dropping games to the Crows, Dogs, Demons and Lions. They can be opened up there – the Dogs’ 127 points against them was their highest score all year.

Essendon (50.4 percent) and Adelaide (50.2 percent) were 2017’s two best teams at converting inside 50s into a score, according to Champion Data. As is so often the case, this game will more than likely be decided by the midfield battle.

And it’s around the ball where the Crows should have the advantage. Zach Merrett, Dyson Heppell and David Zaharakis are all fine players. Better than fine, actually. Brendon Goddard is still a good footballer.

The Crows though are a different animal – they played in a grand final for a reason. In Rory Sloane, Bryce Gibbs and Matt Crouch, not only do Adelaide have three exceptional onballers, they also have three players more than willing to do the dirty work defensively.

Richard Douglas isn’t at that level, but he too fits in that mould. Sam Jacobs is one of the league’s best ruckmen.

(Photo by Daniel Kalisz/Getty Images)

We can reasonably expect to see Essendon’s uber-talented Rising Star winner Andrew McGrath spend more time where the action is this season, though Worsfold could well give him the task on Eddie Betts tonight.

McGrath did a fine job last time these teams met, doing his bit to keep Eddie Betts goalless with just seven touches.

Adelaide will miss Jake Lever’s intercepting, and that might never be more evident than against Daniher’s aerial mastery. That puts extra pressure on Daniel Talia, who won’t want to find himself one-out in the forward 50 too often.

Mitch McGovern will cause similar, though less frightening, problems for Michaels Hartley and Hurley at the other end.

This could be the game of the round and it’s only Round 1 so there’s a bit more guesswork involved than usual, but I’m tipping the Crows’ midfield advantage and defensive discipline to be enough to overcome a patchwork forward line and get them over the line by ten points.

That’s my Friday night forecast. What’s yours?