The 2018 NRL season continues to surprise and amaze, with more upsets during Round 5 causing mayhem for tipsters and bringing with it plenty of intrigue. These are my talking points from the weekend that was.
A note before we get going – apologies for being a little shorter this week. As you may be able to appreciate, the Commonwealth Games have ripped the time I have to write these in half.
This year’s top eight is going to look very different
Five weeks into what has been a crazy start to the season, and if one thing has become clear in the first month and a bit, it’s that the top eight come September is going to look very different to the one we had last year.
The Tigers, Warriors and Dragons are all on fire. Last week, I commented on the fact I was ready to give up tipping, but let’s focus on the positives. Last year, it felt like there were a lot of predictable games in what was something of a dud regular season at times.
Six teams last year, from almost the halfway point of the season, knew they weren’t going to be making the finals. While it might have been mathematically possible, it was never realistic for most of those clubs.
This year, any team can beat any other team on any given day, as evidenced over the first five rounds.
At this early point of the season, it looks like the Warriors, Tigers and Dragons will all be there, and I reckon that’s going to ruin a majority of people’s top eight predictions big time.
Speaking of the top eight…
(Photo by Kai Schwoerer/Getty Images)
The Eels are gone
Having zero wins from your first five games is a quickfire way to make sure making the finals is going to take a miracle, but even that might not be enough for the Eels anymore.
For a side who were widely tipped to finish in the top four this season, their start to the season has been abysmal, ending in another loss to the Penrith Panthers on Sunday afternoon.
How they turn things around is anyone’s guess at this point. Their forwards are being bullied, their backs aren’t operating anywhere near the top of their game and they aren’t getting enough support from the bench.
Brad Arthur has a monumental task ahead of him and things won’t get any easier from here with Canberra and Manly ahead.
They were an improved side better against the Panthers, but only scored one try and never really looked like they were going to win after being down 10-0.
Let’s make the call now – the Eels won’t play finals footy in 2018.
Newcastle’s rebuild comes full circle
When Nathan Brown called Wayne Bennett out in his press conference on Saturday evening after the Knights’ win over the Broncos, one thing became clear.
This is a very different Newcastle. They are here to play in 2018, and while issues still exist, it’s no longer a rebuild for the proud club, who have not once dropped off in crowd sizes or dedication to the cause during what has been a very difficult couple of years.
While Brown had a crack at Bennett, saying he wouldn’t have needed to rebuild the club if it wasn’t for the current Broncos coach’s time at the club, Newcastle have come full circle this year.
They have won three of their first five, and while a lot of that has to do with signings to the club, local junior Brock Lamb has been a revelation.
Beating their former coach’s club would have been sweet for the Knights, especially in front of an adoring home crowd.
They aren’t a premiership contender yet, but the Newcastle fans who deserve so much have every chance of supporting their team into September this season.
What’s wrong with the Cowboys?
I’m not going to lie here – I very vocally proclaimed the Cowboys would win the premiership before the season got underway.
Apart from the fact that’s probably the sole reason they have started the season horribly, the Cowboys don’t look like the team who made the grand final in 2017.
Nothing like it.
It’s hard to put a finger on exactly what is going on with the Cowboys, but they have now lost three straight and have very little cohesion seemingly in attack.
The performance of Jason Taumalolo has been one of the key assets over the last few years, but he hasn’t been up to his usual level. Combine that with the factor Johnathan Thurston and Michael Morgan’s halves combination not flowing and you start to get an idea.
What will be interesting to see is if they can improve with Lachlan Coote. He is a key part of the Cowboys, both in attack and defence, but is yet to play this season with injury.
They need him back urgently and the Cowboys must start winning, or in this close compeition, September will start looking a long, long way away.
(Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)
Are the Dragons really as good as their record suggests?
The Dragons are sitting at the top of the NRL table having started the season five and zero, and while it’s better to be playing from in front than behind, they can’t afford to get complacent and be happy with what they have shown so far.
There are glaring issues on both ends of the park for the Dragons.
For most of the first hour, they appeared to dominate the contest against the Rabbitohs, but were reduced to kicking penalty goals and scoring just two tries, one of them coming from an upset to gun young fullback Matt Dufty.
That doesn’t scream great things about their attack, despite what they have shown at times in the first month of the season, headlined by running 40 up against the Titans.
Their defence, despite holding one of the best records so far in the competition has been solid, but also inconsistent at times, letting in some soft tries.
While there is no point being at peak performance this early in the season, the Dragons have had a reasonably straightforward start to the season draw-wise, and with matches against the Sharks and Roosters coming up, they are going to be properly put to the test.
Is Matt Moylan a half?
The Sharks slumped to their third loss in five games to start the season on Friday at the hands of premiership favourites the Roosters, but there are pressing issues for the Cronulla club.
The loss of James Maloney and how they recovered from it was always going to be one of the key problems for the blue and white this season, and it’s proving to be tougher than they could imagine.
Chad Townsend doesn’t look himself playing alonside former Panthers fullback Matt Moylan, who has been converted into a half at the Sharks.
While it’s impossible to get consistency in combinations when players are out injured every second week, which seems to be what’s happening for Shane Flangan’s side early in the season, the Sharks should be going better than what they are, and a big part of that might be the issues Moylan and Townsend are experiencing in the halves.
Ricky Stuart’s swipe at Canberra delivers success
Last week, the Raiders hit rock bottom when they lost to Manly.
Coach Ricky Stuart tore into his men in green at the press conference after fulltime, calling them soft and asking them to show passion for the jersey.
Five days later, they turned out against the Bulldogs and picked up their first win of the season with a spirited effort.
There are still issues for Canberra to work out. Understanding their solution in the halves and spine is going to be a large part of the battle for coach Stuart, but they did the little things right on Thursday. Whether it was defensive effort on the line, making opportunities count with the ball or playing the game at their pace, they found a way to do it for 80 minutes, which is something they haven’t done at all this season.
Consistency moving forward is going to be a major issue for the Raiders, given their start to the season, and proving they can do it against better opposition is going to be crucial, but they now have positives to build off.
(AAP Image/Dean Lewins)
The Broncos made a mistake letting Jai Arrow go
I know the argument from others will be that you can’t keep everyone, and fair enough. It might have felt like a good decision at the time for the Broncos to let the second rower go, given what he had served up in limited opportunities at Suncorp.
But when you consider what Arrow has done throughout the juniors, it might be a bad decision.
In hindsight, looking at the Broncos pack this year, it’s an even worse one to allow the Titans to snatch up the youngster.
Tevita Pangai Junior has been a shining light for the Broncos in the pack, but they are getting very little other production and it’s hurting their on field performance badly. It isn’t the only issue, and not one Arrow could fix on his own, but it’s one he could help improve.
Arrow has made a splendid start to 2018, beginning to fullfil the potential he showed as a junior, and was one of the Titans best in their victory over Manly on Sunday.
Canterbury need to work on their attack – in a hurry
The Bulldogs have been inconsistent to start the season, but in a worrying trend, their attack looks poor.
While they showed a little bit on Good Friday against the Rabbitohs, their execution was still off at times. Couple that with shutting things down far too early as they tried to protect a lead, and they found a way to lose that one.
Things went from bad to worse in the nation’s capital on Thursday. Dean Pay’s side looked lost at times, only scoring 12 points in the game.
Kieran Foran’s role looks a little stunted at times, and while both Moses Mbye and Michael Lichaa have played satisfactorily, their pack aren’t doing the job, and nor is Foran’s new halves partner Jeremy Marshall-King.
Again, there is potential there. The side have shown at times during their one and four start to the season they are there and abouts, but consistency is lacking, as is an ability to run up points when they dominate games.
Keep playing like that, and they will be out of the finals race soon enough.
Roarers, what did you make of Round 5?
Ben Lewis
Roar Pro
Every time the Eels have an abysmal start to the season and the pundits start writing us off for the year, I optimistically remember 2009 very fondly. It hasn't helped very much over the last 8 years, but still :P it's there.
Rob
Guest
I think Pearce has bought a strong kicking game and solid edge defence to the Knights. The attacking brilliance and genuine match winner is Ponga. He's not there to tackle but he certainly know exactly where to be and has the safest set of hand in the comp. His ability to beat tackles and bring the ball back at speed gets the Knights on the front foot on tackle 1 more often than not. Lillyman, Buhrer and Guerra, bring experience that has helped give confidence to the young forwards.
Glenn
Guest
Oh come on, Scotty- Dragons- glaring issues at both ends of the park? You're kidding! Average points scored (30+) average points against (12). Wins against full strength Broncos, Sharks, Titans, Knights and Souths? On Friday they had at least two tries disallowed, one of which only by a hand under the ball and the other a ridiculous "obstruction" ruling? Souths were never in the lead. Where is the weakness in this Dragons side in any position? Hard to see one at present. Its a very good, well balanced side with great backs feeding off a tough, mobile and physical pack. I am not getting carried away at this early stage because the big issues of Origin selection,fatigue and injuries are yet to be seen. Quite conceivable that Hunt, Vaughan, de Belin, Aitkin, Sims and Frizzell could all get an Origin call up at some stage which will have an impact late in the season not just around the Origin series. But if they survive that ok, they have already shown that at their peak they will take some stopping in September.
Pedro the Saint
Roar Rookie
10 points each on those comments . . . hard to see anyone as damaging for Semi in Parra at this stage of the season.
Pedro the Saint
Roar Rookie
Anzac day will be brutal for Saints after travelling to NZ. The game for them will depend on how they get thru the 80 after the Warriors (win loose or draw) as it is a very short turn around.
BA Sports
Roar Guru
With regard to Hayne; Anderson - the team went from Grand Finalist (thanks almost entirely to Hayne) to missing the 8, and the questionable Board, the chatty head sponsor and the not so great CEO were all in the mix for directing his departure - you couldn't pin it all on Hayne Kearney - had a winning record of less than 24% - no coach with the resources the Eels have lasts that out. Stuart lasted one year at the Eels - Again, they only won six games and when you look at the line ups and some of the positional decisions of Stuart that year, it is no wonder... The fans wanted him gone from day 1. Nathan Hindmarsh and Luke Burt were there for the sackings of Smith, Anderson and Kearney - but no thought that they were to blame despite going through as many coaches at Parra as Hayne If Arthur were to get sacked tomorrow for the Eels start to the year, it wouldn't be on Hayne (though plenty of you would be sure to try and make it about him). Hayne also won Dally Player of the year under
Rob
Guest
Scotty I suggested the Top 8 this year would be incredibly hard to pick. I thought St Goerge and Ben Hunt would both have a better season. Newcastle are on the way up and Ponga is something special. I thought the Broncos, Bulldogs and Sharks would struggle. I wasn't confident the Cowboys would be better with Thurston taking back the role of chief playmaker off Morgan. I'm not sure they can make the 8 if Paul Green doesn't start making the smart decsion that need to be made. The Warriors are a certainty to play finals football.
Rob
Guest
Unfortunately dealing with the high profile players seems something he has had difficulty with. Thurston was made Captain in 2007 by Graham Murray and they finshed 3rd then, (2008)15th Murray sacked, (2009) 12th Milward sacked, (2010) 12th before Scott was appointed Co-captain by Neil Henry. The Cowboys have not failed to make the finals since M. Scott was made Captain. Henry was sacked like Murray and Millward before him because they weren't reaching their potential? I know Wayne Bennett doesn't let players run the ship because he knows the consequences. He also knows when to tap the player on the shoulder and show them the door. How many Coaches have been sacked with Jarrod Hayne in the team? How many coaches have been sacked with Farrar in the team?
Griggso
Guest
I would say you're right on the money with your assessment Albo. I am an optimist though, so I would add one good thing about the Cowboys in 2018. Given what's been going on, they have not yet dropped their bundle. They have been outplayed but are still trying hard for 80 minutes. They showed some good goal line defence for periods against the Warriors. All is not lost just yet.
KenW
Guest
'They were 2017 grand finalists without their super stars like JT & Matt Scott for most of the season, & they had added another budding forward star in McLean' And if I were a Cowboys fan, I would certainly have gone through the off-season telling everyone that would listen exactly this. But I'm not sure why everyone else was so excited by it, that GF was clearly a perfectly-timed purple patch for a team that (in the context of the full season) didn't really belong there. As I said though, I'm not claiming to be some kind of genius that saw them look this uncompetitive - and I think your observations are otherwise spot on.
Albo
Guest
Spot on BA ! Macdonald had 3 tries disallowed before halftime. Two were awarded on field but overturned in the bunker. The Bunnies were brave in defence , but I think the Dragons lost their way a bit in the second half and coasted. As for Reynolds, apart from his goal kicking he has offered little to Souths for some years. Doueihi needs to be in the team somewhere and probably in a controlling half's role. For a young bloke he at least understands what needs to happen out there, and more games experience will see him develop.
no one in particular
Roar Guru
You talking about thurston?
Albo
Guest
I have a soft spot for the Knights, and I like them for a spot in the 8 this year. Like you I think Fitzgibbon is a beauty and easily their best local. I am not a Brock Lamb fan. He still makes too many errors for mine, and doesn't read the play well. I hope Connor Watson gets back soon. In recent years , the Knights for some reason, have been light on for local stars being developed ? Really, this 2018 Knights team will be made up of mostly imports, and whilst Ponga is a budding star ( he still needs some defensive improvements) , and Guerra , Lilyman, Ese Ese, Heighington, Buhrer & Barnett give their pack some punch, it is Mitchell Pearce that is their key to everything happening for the Knights. He will prove to be the buy of the year by season's end.
Dirk Diggler
Roar Rookie
Scott agree with your comment "any team can be another on any given day". This is what is making this seasons tipping so interesting. Not 100% sold on the Tigers or Warriors but definately feel the Dragons could very much be in the Top 4 at seasons end IF the Cowboys, Storm & Roosters continue to underwhelm. Put a line through the Eels, effort is there but do not have enough go forward to make the 8. It will be interesting to see what happens over the next 4 weeks. The Storm look lost at times on the attack, Croft isn't quite ready for the day in day out grind and if reports are correct that Smith has a quad injury then this period will test them. They have a lot of good young players so the future is bright. JAC and Suli can't get themselves into the game so the attack looks stagnant a times. Can't write off the Cowboys yet, but JT definately looks like age is catching up to him. Newcastle is an interesting one. We play them this week, and in years gone by if the Storm lost even 1 game then they could very easily put up 40 the next week. I expect them to bounce back, but if they only just get over the Knights I'm going to be very worried.
Your kidding
Guest
A lot of people on this site plus some journalists were saying before the season started, that now the NRL controlled the draw things would be a lot better. Makes you wonder !
The Barry
Roar Guru
Dragons are proving good to watch. The query I have is the quality of their opposition so far. They've had a pretty easy run of it so far and the 'good' teams they've played have been pretty ordinary on the day. It's probably still undecided whether they were poor because the Dragons made them look that way or if they genuinely had an off day. But the Broncs, Sharks and Titans were all well below their best against the Dragons. Getting the job done when not playing great, which the Drags have done against the Sharks and Souths, is a pretty good sign. I can understand Dragons fans not wanting to sing from the rooftops after last season but they're travelling pretty well.
Albo
Guest
They were 2017 grand finalists without their super stars like JT & Matt Scott for most of the season, & they had added another budding forward star in McLean. Of course they would have to be plenty of people's early favourites for 2018. But so far, their past form has not materialised as yet this year. Their much vaunted pack has been dominated by all opposition packs apart from the Sharks in round 1. Only Coen Hess looks to be improving on his last season form in that pack. The rest have not hit their straps especially , Taumololo. JT is either injured or father time has finally caught up with him, and he has been smashed in possession regularly by the Panthers & Warriors in the past couple of games. They have the slowest set of backs in the NRL and attack is pretty limited to kicks at present. Morgan looks lost not running the show, and thoughts that Coote might make a difference would mean dropping Hampton , probably their one dangerous attacking player so far this season. They do have some troubles that may be similar to the Storm. Where their aging superstars might no longer be able to consistently carry the usual roster of average calibre, like they once could for the past decade or so ?
Forty Twenty
Guest
Manly need to have tighter defence , Bryce Cartwrights flick pass for a try would be a non event if the hole was plugged before it was too late. We've lost two games which we should have won thru mistakes and some loose defence. Jackson Hastings probably needs to start at some stage and give Croker a spell in the lower grades. Brian Kelly struggled for a while last year and had a spell in reserves. Kelly is now an established 1st grader and is beating one or two defenders given a little bit of room. He is a good example of supporters needing some patience.
BA Sports
Roar Guru
I tend to agree. They weren't at their best, but were still the better team. If the McDonald try is allowed that is 14/16-0? And you throw in the Souths try that was later awarded on the field when Cook ran into the back of Sutton (i think it was), obstructing the defence and there is your 12 point swing which potentially puts the margin at at least 10 points and people are not downplaying the win. Adam Reynolds looks done. to me he looked done a couple of years ago, but now he seems well and truly done..
Nick
Roar Guru
A tad harsh on the Dragons Scott. They weren't at their absolute best but they did have one try mystifyingly overruled. Had that try been allowed, the Dragons were going to be sitting on a tasty half time lead. They had the game iced, except for a small lapse of concentration at the end. Rabbitoh's were pretty solid in defence.