In what is likely to be looked back on as a season-defining result, a much-maligned Adelaide got the job done against Sydney on Friday night at the SCG, recording a ten-point victory.
Heading into the contest you could be forgiven for deciding to give it a miss based on the public perception of what was supposed to be a foregone conclusion. Both the media and punters alike on social media were predicting a comfortable Swans victory.
While it’s likely to be an unpopular comparison, the Friday night thriller is easy to compare to the United States 2016 presidential election.
Heading into the election Hillary Clinton (Sydney) was the media’s darling, expected to romp home with an easy win against the unfancied Donald Trump (Adelaide).
Convinced that the result was a foregone conclusion, in both head-to-head encounters onlookers overlooked a slew of evidence that the underdog was capable of claiming a shock win.
So just how did the footy world read the Crows so wrong?
(AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy)
The Sydney Cricket Ground is far from a fortress for the current 22 running around in Swans colours. Sydney has played at the SCG three times this season and has now lost twice – the first loss was a 23-point defeat against Port Adelaide in Round 2. Interesting to note is that both sides to best Sydney at this SCG this season have been South Australian squads.
Turning back the clock further, the Swans were less than convincing on Friday nights at the SCG in 2016.
In Round 3 the Swans were defeated by Collingwood by one point, in Round 10 they were defeated by six points and in Round 14 the Swans recorded a gruelling one-point victory against Essendon.
No Buddy Franklin, no Sydney?
Sydney’s 75-point haul against the Crows was the team’s second-lowest score of the season so far, beaten only by its 71-point score against Port.
In an attempt to swing for the fences and pull off a big win, Adelaide applied plenty of pressure on Lance Franklin as the centrepiece of the Sydney attack. The strategy proved successful.
Franklin, leading the race for the Coleman Medal with 18 goals to his name, managed just a single goal and three behinds coming from 11 disposals and without a goal assist.
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
With all the pressure heaped on Franklin the remainder of the Swans failed to step up into the vanguard, with Gary Rohan the only multiple goal-kicker with two.
So far this season Franklin, as he always tends to do, has been the key chess piece in Sydney wins, particular in last-quarter efforts, and it’s appearing more and more likely that limiting Franklin is the simple path to victory over the Swans.
Sydney’s fate was sealed in the second quarter when Franklin was hit up by a fantastic pass on the half forward flank, played on off the mark and from long range was unable to enter his kicking motion. He was simply gobbled up by four hard-running defensive Crows without another Swan in sight.
The ball quickly fired up the other end for a goal on the run in less than 20 seconds, resulting in what could easily be seen as unofficial 12-point play against Sydney – a 12-point play that in the grand scheme of the match resulted in a win for Adelaide.
It’s worth noting too that Franklin wasn’t the only key Swan rubbed out of the page, with midfield juggernaut Josh Kennedy kept to just 13 touches all night.
(AAP Image/David Moir)
Adelaide deserve respect and are rarely given it anymore, and it would be remiss to spend so much energy bringing the Swans down a peg and not reflecting on the superb effort by Adelaide.
All week the Crows were torn apart in the media following the side’s abysmal showing against Collingwood in Round 4, with captain Tex Walker once again taking the brunt of the fury.
It’s been a theme in the football world since last September when the Crows, heavily favoured heading into the grand final, failed to arrive against Richmond and walked away without the premiership after a dominant run through the season.
Walker replied with four goals and was accompanied by twin tower Josh Jenkins with three and the always impressive Rory Aitkens with three.
The Crows did it all without key small forward and energy barometer Eddie Betts, impressive newcomer Darcy Fogarty and the midfield machine of Rory Sloane, Matt Crouch and Brad Crouch.
If the Crows are able to rise to great heights in 2018, perhaps even seeking revenge after the crushing defeat at the hands of Richmond in the 2017 grand final, this win is likely to be looked back on as a defining mark on the season at large and possibly many individual careers.
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
Absolutely, you can make the right prediction as far as the outcome goes, yet get the reasoning wrong. Aided by the brain doing this little editing thing post-event, emphasising certainties of what happened and eliminating the vagaries and non-adopted-theory-fitting variables.
Internal Fixation
Guest
Spot on
User
Roar Rookie
Picking the swans was the logical choice at end of day, fact crows could execute such a congested game plan more reminiscent of the swans/wce games during 04-07 was a credit to them.
Joe
Guest
Adelaide omitted Darcy Fogarty, so you can't really put him in the list of players they didn't have available. They were missing a few other best 22 players though, like Brodie Smith.
anon
Roar Pro
anon said | April 17th 2018 @ 1:39pm | ! Report I like the Swans and backed them throughout last year to turn it around, but they look old to me. Not particularly convincing in their three wins and lost to Port at the SCG. They lose to West Coast if Buddy kicks 4 goals instead of 8. Western handed it to them on the weekend. GWS’s forward entries and accuracy was horrendous against the Swans.
anon
Roar Pro
No-one got anything wrong. An undermanned Crows at home got smashed by a mediocre Collingwood outfit a week. A lot of people were pegging the Swans as a top four side, they are strong at the SCG, Adelaide had more outs. Tremendous win by Adelaide. You were free to make your hero predictions and tell everyone that the Crows would bounce back strongly against the Swans at the SCG, but you'll likely get a similar prediction wrong 9/10 times. If they can get through the softish draw in the next four weeks by going 3-1, then it sets them up nicely for when their big names start making their way back into the side. As I have said all week, the Swans have been unconvincing this year, their midfield and Buddy look a little old and like their missing a step.
Joe
Guest
If that was the time Buddy ended up being tackled by multiple Adelaide players, he DID get called on immediately, but the players didn't hear it. The ump called play on half a dozen times, but the Crows player just stood the mark.
Pedro The Fisherman
Roar Rookie
McGovern did make a few mistakes and dropped a few marks (which is unusual for the "glove") but he did look a lot better when put behind the ball. Players can have off nights and generally bounce back. Just ask Tex!
Howie
Roar Pro
Happy for pundits to get it wrong. Keeps the odds high. Really Adelaide should never have been paying $4.
Paul D
Roar Guru
I agree. TV always fails when it tries to fabricate that emotional moment, particularly with the commentators lining up to wax lyrical about it. It's much better when it's just the cameras recording moments that happen with real people, unvarnished.
Vocans
Guest
The crowd booed very early on before any possible trend of bias could have emerged. They were sure the Swans couldn’t be playing so badly and the Crows blitzing away - it must be the umps. 18-19 apiece and I think bad calls went both ways.
Aligee
Guest
Yep, refs and fouls!!
I ate pies
Guest
Buddy plays under different rules, apparently.
I ate pies
Guest
Yeah those refs were a shocker. How many fouls did Adelaide get away with?...We hear this every time Sydney don't win.
Rick
Guest
I think the result last night highlights the fact that anyone that produces negative commentary about clubs or players can be made to look reasonably stupid. Just a point on the umpiring, I wonder when the umpires are going to pull Buddy up on straying off the mark, the instance where he took the mark on the 50, near the telstra log, saw him drift a good 2 metres left to take a set shot without getting called to play on. It was only after he played on from that position the umpire called play on.
Basil 1 of 2
Guest
Free kicks - 18 to 19. Are you saying they were bias to the Crows or poor all round?
Aligee
Guest
I thought the umpiring at times was pretty bad, the Swans midfield looked a bit slow and uninspired - thats why they lost, it even looked to me that the crowd at the SCG was a bit uninspired last night - maybe expecting a easy win. The third quarter when everyone was at one end of the ground with the Swans attacking is very very messy football - something needs to be done - perhaps zoning is the only answer. I really hate that congested football, it is a rugby rolling maul.
Nick
Guest
If i was selecting next week i would drop McGovern. Nearly cost them the game.
MG
Roar Rookie
I thought it would be very hard for the Crows with their injuries. They were always going to respond to a poor game last week. The Swans' midfield had a terrible game. Kennedy two games in a row! Crows' midfield very good. Shocking umpiring - the crowd were booing very loudly. Were they the guys from the 2016 Grand Final? Crows were the better team on the night and it was a well deserved win.
Vocans
Guest
It is becoming familiar that time and again any AFL team who brings supreme pressure on the ball and the player can pull rabbits out of hats. Any team who is a little below par will likely get beaten. Right from the first bounce the Crows had that pressure and really good Swans players went almost unsighted. Buddy seemed far too sure of himself and ended up rattled. Heeney was a gem at times, Malcheski (?spelling) was solid coming out of defence. From now on us tipsters will at least wonder what game will the Crows be bringing? The Crows lnow they have it in them. The one question over all teams is how often they can produce that intensity. Footy has yet to answer that question.