Can Patrick Cripps win the Brownlow Medal?

Fremantle captain and the favourite for the 2018 Brownlow Medal Nat Fyfe was suspended following Round 11, with his departure from contention for the award opening up the field.

According to the bookies, the next best bet is now Hawthorn’s Tom Mitchell, followed by Richmond duo Dustin Martin and Trent Cotchin, the Western Bulldogs’ Jack McCrae, Melbourne’s Max Gawn, and West Coast’s Andrew Gaff.

One name in the mix but considered a long shot is Patrick Cripps.

The 23-year-old has entered the prime of his career in 2018 and is on a stunning run of form, currently the number one ranked player for contested possessions, ahead of ahead of Fyfe and Mitchell.

Cripps also features heavily in the tackles division (12th in the league) and raw possessions (14th).

The one metric going against the Carlton vice-captain is clangers, committing the most of any player in the league. However, that’s expected given the majority of his possessions come in tight.

And that brings us to the next key point, the quality of his side.

You wouldn’t be wrong for thinking no Carlton player stands a chance, no matter how good they’re playing. The Blues are in arguably the worst form of the club’s history – last on the ladder with a single win and an abysmal percentage (63.5) – and with little relief on the horizon.

Cripps’ best individual performances are all coming in losses and in order to poll votes he’s going to have rank higher than the best three players in an opposition outfit that has more than likely just belted his.

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In the last ten years, the Brownlow Medal winner has almost always come from a side that played finals.

2017 – Dustin Martin – Richmond – third
2016 – Patrick Dangerfield – Geelong – second
2015 – Nat Fyfe – Fremantle – first
2014 – Matt Priddis – West Coast – ninth
2013 – Gary Ablett Jnr – Gold Coast – 14th
2012 – Trent Cotchin and Sam Mitchell – Richmond and Hawthorn – 12th and first
2011 – Dane Swan – Collingwood – first
2010 – Chris Judd – Carlton – eighth
2009 – Gary Ablett Jnr – Geelong – second
2008 – Adam Cooney – Western Bulldogs – third
2007 – Jimmy Bartel – Geelong – first

Priddis, Ablett and Cotchin are the only players in recent history to do it from outside the eight, and more often than not the winner is a star player from a top-four side.

But Carlton fans should keep the faith.

For many, the AFL’s Coaches Association Champion Player of the Year Award has become a much better barometer for just who the best player in the competition is, and Cripps is being celebrated there.

Fyfe is the current leader, on 51 votes, but Cripps in second, on 46 votes.

If the voting coaches are able to recognise the excellent run of form Cripps is having, there’s no reason to believe the voting umpires aren’t doing likewise.

That’s also not factoring in the possibility of Carlton stringing together an unlikely chain of wins against an unsuspecting opposition, or other Brownlow fancies experiencing injury or suspension.

Way back in April, after a loss to West Coast, Brendon Bolton summed up Cripps as being at the centre of any and all of the club’s positive energy.

“He’s carrying most of the load on ball and he’s a warrior, he’s a soldier,” Bolton said.

“We love him.”