State of Origin 2: The definitive stats preview

Did you know that in the history of State of Origin three-game series, 25 of them have been won by the side that won the first game?

That’s 73.5 per cent of the time. However, on nine of those occasions, the series still went to a decider.

Further, seven times the side that has won the first game of the series has ended up losing the series – just like NSW did last year. That’s 20 per cent of the time.

Tim’s note: I never include 1997 games due to it being a stupid split competition and devoid of meaning.

So, while 16 times the side that won the first game wrapped up the series in Game 2, don’t write the series off just yet.

Game 1 was a whole lot closer than I predicted with the Blues nowhere near as dominant as I thought they would be.

Let’s go and look at the stats leading into this game.

Age, weight and minutes in the legs = Even

It’s a big happy birthday to Damien Cook, the cousin of former gun touchie Luke Potter. The Rabbitoh rake turns 27 the day before the game. The NSW side is a year on average younger than the Queenslanders.

It’s even in the forwards. However, the Maroons backs are almost three years older on average.

There is just two kilograms difference in total weights of the size in a freakish match up.

NSW has a paltry ten extra minutes in their legs which adds up to 36 seconds a player on average. Not exactly a distinct advantage there.

Runs and metres = NSW by a length

While there is only a difference of ten runs between the sides, NSW have 212 extra metres a game over the Queenslanders. That is a very scary statistic for Kevin Walters. And it is clear where those metres are: in the forwards.

NSW have just one forward – Jack De Belin – who makes fewer than 100 metres a game. Queensland have four: Coen Hess, Gavin Cooper, Felise Kaufusi and Dylan Napa.

In Game 1 only one Maroon forward – Felise Kaufusi – made over 100 metres. Only three made over 82, Dylan Napa’s insipid return. Jarrod Wallace had a stinker, making just 36 metres. Four Blues forwards made over 100 metres.

The Maroon forwards must rectify this gulf in Game 2 if their side is to prevail.

In the outside backs for both sides only James Roberts made less than 100 metres, with Valentine Holmes and James Tedesco both cracking the double ton.

James Tedesco and the Blues backs ran wild (Photo by Scott Barbour/Getty Images)

Tackling = NSW, just

Both sides have virtually the same tackling capacity at around 330 a game per side. NSW has two 30+ tacklers in Damien Cook and Jake Trbojevic. Queensland has three: Felise Kaufusi, Andrew McCullough and Coen Hess.

When it comes to missed tackles NSW has a 3.5 missed tackle edge. Those extra misses are all in the backs.

Ben Hunt (3.8), Will Chambers (3) and Dane Gagai (2.9) will all be targeted. The Maroons will try and target my favourite James Maloney as he averages 5.8 missed tackles a game this season. But they tried that in Game 1 and he only missed two.

Queensland missed 38 tackles to NSW 19 in Game 1 and it as the decisive statistic. Some players had absolute shockers. Kaufusi and Chambers both missed seven each, with Cam Munster and Dylan Napa both missing six each. I’m surprised Napa has held his spot. I’d have had Tim Glasby in there without a second thought.

You can guarantee that Brad Fittler will have his troops running at top speed at those targets to try and expose them again.

Breaking and scoring = NSW

The Blues are better in every category here in an ominous projection for the Maroons. The Blues make seven more tackle breaks, have six more tries in them, while being better at both line breaking and try assisting.

While neither sides forwards are particularly noteworthy when it comes to tackle breaking (excluding Cook), the NSW backs are tackle breaking machines.

The only reason the Maroons are close in regard to backline tackle breaks is that Kalyn Ponga has come into it with his 5.7 a game. There is a lot of pressure on the kid. However, gee he is good. He could just be what the Maroons need.

The two players who really broke the game open for the Blues were Tedesco and Cook and both did it as a result of their superb tackle and line breaking abilities. Tedesco made 11 tackle breaks in game one, Addo-Carr nine and Latrell Mitchell six.

The Maroons will know that cannot be allowed to repeat. Greg Inglis made five tackle breaks for his side, in a performance that was reminiscent of Mal Meninga at his peak.

Foulers and fumblers = Queensland

The penalties here are almost even. However, as we saw in Game 1 (and as we know from experience) the referees swallow their whistles in big games, choosing not to get in the way of the entertainment.

They are window dressing in State of Origin. So it doesn’t really matter that Bernie Sutton has again left out the best referee, Matt Cecchin, and bizarrely persisted with Ash Klein, who he himself demoted after Round 3 and who made two of the most inexplicably appalling decisions from the Wests Tigers-Raiders video refs bunker that I think anyone has ever seen.

If Gerry Sutton and Ash Klein blow more than ten penalties combined in this game I’ll be stunned.

This also renders the sin bin stat – that sees Queensland with nominally quite the advantage – null and void of meaning too.

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So the only stat that carries any weight here is there errors where Queensland are two to the good of NSW. Tommy Turbo will get targeted again by the Maroons, who will be hoping that he has one of his off handling days. Young Kalyn Ponga will have the mother of all blow torches applied to his belly.

The errors could be telling. Who knows? If Jimmy Maloney’s forward pass to Addo-Carr had been called an error the result in Game 1 could have been different.

Experience = Queensland

Almost all of Queensland’s 64 games of extra State of Origin experience belongs to Billy Slater and Greg Inglis. And that experience may well be telling.

Inglis showed us in Game One, in no uncertain terms, that he understood exactly what it took to lead his state. Further, Billy Slater is a talker and organiser par excellence.

If his hamstring allows him onto the paddock the Queenslanders will grow an extra leg in attack and defence.

Greg Inglis of the Maroons (Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)

James Maloney will be the third most experienced Origin player with eleven appearances. With Dave Klemmer, Boyd Cordner and Josh Papalii each having ten.

Kalyn Ponga will be the 193rd player to pull on the Queensland Maroon Jersey. Matt Prior will be Blue number 268.

Those doubting 31-year-old Prior’s suitability for this gig need to remember his role in the 2016 semi-final against the Raiders. The Sharks lost Paul Gallen pre game and Wade Graham just minutes in. Prior stood up – and how.

He made 22 runs for 220+ metres, scoring a try and setting one up. Add to that 35 tackles. This from a bloke whose career averages are ten runs a game for 90 metres, with 25 tackles. He over doubled his usual effort that night.

The Sharks might not even have got to a preliminary final without that freak effort. This game may well be another of his out of the box performances.

Who is going to win and why?
You can never write off the Maroons. They have a history of making NSW look stupid. They did it last year oh so well.

They brought Slater back and replaced Myles, Thaiday, Guerra and Lilyman with Glasby, Wallace, Hess and Cooper. It was enough to stem the bleeding and turn the tide.

However, for this game they’ve retained the insipid Napa and the ageing Cooper. They have no Cam Smith or Johnathan Thurston. There is no Cooper Cronk or Michael Morgan.

Opposing them is a team who are no longer chockers with virgins. A team with their tails up. A team at home in front of their home crowd. A team with mongrel. A team with grunt.

And speed. So much speed.

I can’t see the Maroons – as brave as they are – being able to deny the Blues victory.

NSW by 20