State of Origin 2: The definitive stats preview

Expert

20th June, 2018

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Valentine Holmes of the Maroons runs with the ball to score a try during game one of the State Of Origin series between the Queensland Maroons and the New South Wales Blues at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on June 6, 2018 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)

Tim Gore

Expert

20th June, 2018

2867 Reads

Did you know that in the history of State of Origin three-game series, 25 of them have been won by the side that won the first game?

That’s 73.5 per cent of the time. However, on nine of those occasions, the series still went to a decider.

Further, seven times the side that has won the first game of the series has ended up losing the series – just like NSW did last year. That’s 20 per cent of the time.

Tim’s note: I never include 1997 games due to it being a stupid split competition and devoid of meaning.

So, while 16 times the side that won the first game wrapped up the series in Game 2, don’t write the series off just yet.

Game 1 was a whole lot closer than I predicted with the Blues nowhere near as dominant as I thought they would be.

Let’s go and look at the stats leading into this game.

Age, weight and minutes in the legs = Even

NSW	Age	Minutes	Weight	QLD	Age	Minutes	Weight
James Tedesco	25	80	96	Billy Slater	35	80	89
Tom Trbojevic	21	80.2	102	Valentine Holmes	22	80	85
James Roberts	25	79.2	93	Greg Inglis	31	76	105
Latrell Mitchell	21	76.6	104	Will Chambers	30	80	100
Josh Addo-Carr	22	79.7	86	Dane Gagai	27	80	91
James Maloney	31	80	83	Cameron Munster	23	80	89
Nathan Cleary	20	74.3	92	Ben Hunt	28	77.2	87
Matt Prior	31	58.1	107	Dylan Napa	25	45.6	109
Damien Cook	27	79.4	86	Andrew McCullough	28	74.2	90
David Klemmer	24	55.2	116	Jarrod Wallace	26	49	108
Tyson Frizell	26	74.2	108	Gavin Cooper	32	78.2	108
Boyd Cordner	26	76.4	102	Felise Kaufusi	26	78.3	112
Jake Trbojevic	24	76.9	107	Josh McGuire	28	64.5	106
Jack de Belin	27	57.6	107	Kalyn Ponga	20	79.7	92
Paul Vaughan	27	51.1	110	Josh Papalii	26	67.5	110
Tyrone Peachey	26	72	93	Coen Hess	21	74	110
Angus Crichton	22	79.8	102	Jai Arrow	22	56.1	101
Average	25	72.4	99.6	Average	26.5	71.8	99.5
Total	425	1230.7	1694	Total	450	1220.3	1692
Forwards	26 / 234	67.6 / 609	105 / 945	Forwards	26 / 234	65.3 / 587	106 / 954
Backs	23.9 / 191	77.72 / 622	93.6 / 749	Backs	27 / 216	79.1 / 633	92.2 / 738

It’s a big happy birthday to Damien Cook, the cousin of former gun touchie Luke Potter. The Rabbitoh rake turns 27 the day before the game. The NSW side is a year on average younger than the Queenslanders.

It’s even in the forwards. However, the Maroons backs are almost three years older on average.

There is just two kilograms difference in total weights of the size in a freakish match up.

NSW has a paltry ten extra minutes in their legs which adds up to 36 seconds a player on average. Not exactly a distinct advantage there.

Runs and metres = NSW by a length

NSW	Runs	Metres	QLD	Runs	Metres
James Tedesco	15.7	170	Billy Slater	11.4	95
Tom Trbojevic	14.8	147	Valentine Holmes	11.2	125
James Roberts	8.6	79	Greg Inglis	11.6	107
Latrell Mitchell	6.9	74	Will Chambers	11.1	93
Josh Addo-Carr	10.7	123	Dane Gagai	12.8	108
James Maloney	5.3	52	Cameron Munster	9.6	88
Nathan Cleary	6.4	49	Ben Hunt	4.4	41
Matt Prior	10.9	100	Dylan Napa	8.9	78
Damien Cook	7.5	93	Andrew McCullough	4.5	41
David Klemmer	17.7	171	Jarrod Wallace	12.9	111
Tyson Frizell	10.6	100	Gavin Cooper	9.4	68
Boyd Cordner	13	113	Felise Kaufusi	8.3	72
Jake Trbojevic	13.4	118	Josh McGuire	13.4	118
Jack de Belin	10.9	96	Kalyn Ponga	12.5	118
Paul Vaughan	13.6	129	Josh Papalii	13.5	123
Tyrone Peachey	11	100	Coen Hess	12.2	96
Angus Crichton	15.4	119	Jai Arrow	15.5	139
Average	11.3	107.8	Average	10.8	95.4
Total	192.4	1833	Total	183.2	1621
Forwards	12.6 / 113	115.4 / 1039	Forwards	10.95 / 98.6	94 / 846
Backs	9.9 / 79.4	99.3 / 794	Backs	10.6 / 84.6	96.9 / 775

While there is only a difference of ten runs between the sides, NSW have 212 extra metres a game over the Queenslanders. That is a very scary statistic for Kevin Walters. And it is clear where those metres are: in the forwards.

NSW have just one forward – Jack De Belin – who makes fewer than 100 metres a game. Queensland have four: Coen Hess, Gavin Cooper, Felise Kaufusi and Dylan Napa.

In Game 1 only one Maroon forward – Felise Kaufusi – made over 100 metres. Only three made over 82, Dylan Napa’s insipid return. Jarrod Wallace had a stinker, making just 36 metres. Four Blues forwards made over 100 metres.

The Maroon forwards must rectify this gulf in Game 2 if their side is to prevail.

In the outside backs for both sides only James Roberts made less than 100 metres, with Valentine Holmes and James Tedesco both cracking the double ton.

James Tedesco and the Blues backs ran wild (Photo by Scott Barbour/Getty Images)

Tackling = NSW, just

NSW	Tackles	Missed Tackles	QLD	Tackles	Missed Tackles
James Tedesco	5.2	0.6	Billy Slater	4	1.1
Tom Trbojevic	4.4	1.2	Valentine Holmes	2.7	1.6
James Roberts	12.4	1.2	Greg Inglis	7.2	1
Latrell Mitchell	8.8	1.3	Will Chambers	13	3
Josh Addo-Carr	3.6	0.7	Dane Gagai	15.5	2.9
James Maloney	11.6	5.8	Cameron Munster	17.9	2.4
Nathan Cleary	14.3	0.6	Ben Hunt	15.8	3.8
Matt Prior	24.7	1.6	Dylan Napa	20.8	1.9
Damien Cook	39	2.4	Andrew McCullough	39.4	0.8
David Klemmer	20.4	1.3	Jarrod Wallace	24.5	1
Tyson Frizell	24.9	1.5	Gavin Cooper	26.3	2.1
Boyd Cordner	26.2	1.6	Felise Kaufusi	30.2	1.5
Jake Trbojevic	38	1.6	Josh McGuire	26.7	2.1
Jack de Belin	26.9	1	Kalyn Ponga	4.3	1.6
Paul Vaughan	23.1	1.1	Josh Papalii	23.2	1.3
Tyrone Peachey	12.8	2.2	Coen Hess	31.3	1.6
Angus Crichton	31.3	2.2	Jai Arrow	28.2	1.7
Average	19.3		Average	19.5
Total	327.6	27.9	Total	331	31.4
Forwards	28.3 / 254.5	14.3	Forwards	27.8 / 250.6	14
Backs	9.1 / 73.1	13.6	Backs	10 / 80.4	17.4

Both sides have virtually the same tackling capacity at around 330 a game per side. NSW has two 30+ tacklers in Damien Cook and Jake Trbojevic. Queensland has three: Felise Kaufusi, Andrew McCullough and Coen Hess.

When it comes to missed tackles NSW has a 3.5 missed tackle edge. Those extra misses are all in the backs.

Ben Hunt (3.8), Will Chambers (3) and Dane Gagai (2.9) will all be targeted. The Maroons will try and target my favourite James Maloney as he averages 5.8 missed tackles a game this season. But they tried that in Game 1 and he only missed two.

Queensland missed 38 tackles to NSW 19 in Game 1 and it as the decisive statistic. Some players had absolute shockers. Kaufusi and Chambers both missed seven each, with Cam Munster and Dylan Napa both missing six each. I’m surprised Napa has held his spot. I’d have had Tim Glasby in there without a second thought.

You can guarantee that Brad Fittler will have his troops running at top speed at those targets to try and expose them again.

Breaking and scoring = NSW

NSW	Tackle breaks	Line breaks	Try Assists	Tries	QLD	Tackle breaks	Line breaks	Try Assists	Tries
James Tedesco	4.7	0.8	0.5	4	Billy Slater	2.9	0.4	0.8	4
Tom Trbojevic	4.4	0.8	0.8	2	Valentine Holmes	2.5	0.8	0.2	12
James Roberts	3.5	0.5	0.4	6	Greg Inglis	1.9	0.5	0.3	7
Latrell Mitchell	4	0.6	0.2	6	Will Chambers	1.5	0.3	0.1	2
Josh Addo-Carr	3.7	0.9	0.2	14	Dane Gagai	2.8	0.2	0.2	1
James Maloney	1.6	0.2	0.8	2	Cameron Munster	2.9	0.4	0.9	1
Nathan Cleary	2.1	0.3	0.9	1	Ben Hunt	2.9	0.3	0.9	3
Matt Prior	0.7	0.1	1	1	Dylan Napa	0.5	0.1	0	0
Damien Cook	3.3	0.7	0.4	3	Andrew McCullough	0.6	0.2	0.2	2
David Klemmer	1.2	0	0.1	0	Jarrod Wallace	0.8	0.1	0	2
Tyson Frizell	1.4	0.1	0	4	Gavin Cooper	0.9	0.4	0	4
Boyd Cordner	1.2	0.1	0.1	1	Felise Kaufusi	0.6	0.4	0.2	3
Jake Trbojevic	0.9	0.3	0.1	4	Josh McGuire	1.3	0	0	0
Jack de Belin	1.9	0.3	0	3	Kalyn Ponga	5.7	0.7	0.9	5
Paul Vaughan	1.6	0.1	0	2	Josh Papalii	2.2	0.4	0.2	3
Tyrone Peachey	3.1	0.4	0.2	6	Coen Hess	2.5	0.4	0	4
Angus Crichton	2.2	0.2	0.2	2	Jai Arrow	1.7	0.2	0	2
Average					Average
Total	41.5	6.4	5.9	61	Total	34.2	5.8	4.9	55
Forwards	14.4	1.9	1.9	20	Forwards	11.1	2.2	0.6	20
Backs	27.1	4.5	4	41	Backs	23.1	3.6	4.3	35

The Blues are better in every category here in an ominous projection for the Maroons. The Blues make seven more tackle breaks, have six more tries in them, while being better at both line breaking and try assisting.

While neither sides forwards are particularly noteworthy when it comes to tackle breaking (excluding Cook), the NSW backs are tackle breaking machines.

The only reason the Maroons are close in regard to backline tackle breaks is that Kalyn Ponga has come into it with his 5.7 a game. There is a lot of pressure on the kid. However, gee he is good. He could just be what the Maroons need.

The two players who really broke the game open for the Blues were Tedesco and Cook and both did it as a result of their superb tackle and line breaking abilities. Tedesco made 11 tackle breaks in game one, Addo-Carr nine and Latrell Mitchell six.

The Maroons will know that cannot be allowed to repeat. Greg Inglis made five tackle breaks for his side, in a performance that was reminiscent of Mal Meninga at his peak.

Foulers and fumblers = Queensland

NSW	Penalties	Errors	Sin Bins	QLD	Penalties	Errors	Sin Bins
James Tedesco	0.1	1.6	0	Billy Slater	0.1	0.9	0
Tom Trbojevic	0	1.5	0	Valentine Holmes	0.1	1	0
James Roberts	0.5	0.4	0	Greg Inglis	0.5	0.5	0
Latrell Mitchell	1	1	2	Will Chambers	0.6	1.3	0
Josh Addo-Carr	0.3	1	1	Dane Gagai	0.4	1.1	0
James Maloney	0.8	1.7	0	Cameron Munster	1.1	0.9	0
Nathan Cleary	0.4	1.2	0	Ben Hunt	0.6	0.9	0
Matt Prior	0.7	0.3	0	Dylan Napa	0.9	0.1	1
Damien Cook	0.8	1	0	Andrew McCullough	0.6	0.5	0
David Klemmer	0.6	0.3	1	Jarrod Wallace	1.2	0.5	1
Tyson Frizell	0.7	0.4	0	Gavin Cooper	0.4	1	0
Boyd Cordner	0.4	0.5	0	Felise Kaufusi	0.3	0.5	0
Jake Trbojevic	1.4	0.4	2	Josh McGuire	0.9	0.1	0
Jack de Belin	0.8	0.4	1	Kalyn Ponga	0.3	1.3	0
Paul Vaughan	0.4	0.2	0	Josh Papalii	0.6	0.6	0
Tyrone Peachey	1	0.6	1	Coen Hess	1.1	0.6	0
Angus Crichton	0.9	1.3	0	Jai Arrow	0.7	0.2	0
Average				Average
Total	10.8	13.8	8	Total	10.4	12	2
Forwards	6.7	4.8	4	Forwards	6.7	4.1	2
Backs	4.1	9.3	4	Backs	3.7	7.9	0

The penalties here are almost even. However, as we saw in Game 1 (and as we know from experience) the referees swallow their whistles in big games, choosing not to get in the way of the entertainment.

They are window dressing in State of Origin. So it doesn’t really matter that Bernie Sutton has again left out the best referee, Matt Cecchin, and bizarrely persisted with Ash Klein, who he himself demoted after Round 3 and who made two of the most inexplicably appalling decisions from the Wests Tigers-Raiders video refs bunker that I think anyone has ever seen.

If Gerry Sutton and Ash Klein blow more than ten penalties combined in this game I’ll be stunned.

This also renders the sin bin stat – that sees Queensland with nominally quite the advantage – null and void of meaning too.

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So the only stat that carries any weight here is there errors where Queensland are two to the good of NSW. Tommy Turbo will get targeted again by the Maroons, who will be hoping that he has one of his off handling days. Young Kalyn Ponga will have the mother of all blow torches applied to his belly.

The errors could be telling. Who knows? If Jimmy Maloney’s forward pass to Addo-Carr had been called an error the result in Game 1 could have been different.

Experience = Queensland

NSW	Origin Games	QLD	Origin Games
James Tedesco	5	Billy Slater	29
Tom Trbojevic	1	Valentine Holmes	3
James Roberts	1	Greg Inglis	31
Latrell Mitchell	1	Will Chambers	8
Josh Addo-Carr	1	Dane Gagai	8
James Maloney	11	Cameron Munster	2
Nathan Cleary	1	Ben Hunt	2
Matt Prior	0	Dylan Napa	4
Damien Cook	1	Andrew McCullough	1
David Klemmer	10	Jarrod Wallace	3
Tyson Frizell	6	Gavin Cooper	5
Boyd Cordner	10	Felise Kaufusi	1
Jake Trbojevic	4	Josh McGuire	9
Jack de Belin	1	Kalyn Ponga	0
Paul Vaughan	1	Josh Papalii	10
Tyrone Peachey	1	Coen Hess	3
Angus Crichton	1	Jai Arrow	1
Average	3.3	Average	7.1
Total	56	Total	120
Forwards	3.8 / 34	Forwards	4.1 / 37
Backs	2.75 / 22	Backs	10.4 / 83

Almost all of Queensland’s 64 games of extra State of Origin experience belongs to Billy Slater and Greg Inglis. And that experience may well be telling.

Inglis showed us in Game One, in no uncertain terms, that he understood exactly what it took to lead his state. Further, Billy Slater is a talker and organiser par excellence.

If his hamstring allows him onto the paddock the Queenslanders will grow an extra leg in attack and defence.

Greg Inglis of the Maroons (Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)

James Maloney will be the third most experienced Origin player with eleven appearances. With Dave Klemmer, Boyd Cordner and Josh Papalii each having ten.

Kalyn Ponga will be the 193rd player to pull on the Queensland Maroon Jersey. Matt Prior will be Blue number 268.

Those doubting 31-year-old Prior’s suitability for this gig need to remember his role in the 2016 semi-final against the Raiders. The Sharks lost Paul Gallen pre game and Wade Graham just minutes in. Prior stood up – and how.

He made 22 runs for 220+ metres, scoring a try and setting one up. Add to that 35 tackles. This from a bloke whose career averages are ten runs a game for 90 metres, with 25 tackles. He over doubled his usual effort that night.

The Sharks might not even have got to a preliminary final without that freak effort. This game may well be another of his out of the box performances.

Who is going to win and why?
You can never write off the Maroons. They have a history of making NSW look stupid. They did it last year oh so well.

They brought Slater back and replaced Myles, Thaiday, Guerra and Lilyman with Glasby, Wallace, Hess and Cooper. It was enough to stem the bleeding and turn the tide.

However, for this game they’ve retained the insipid Napa and the ageing Cooper. They have no Cam Smith or Johnathan Thurston. There is no Cooper Cronk or Michael Morgan.

Opposing them is a team who are no longer chockers with virgins. A team with their tails up. A team at home in front of their home crowd. A team with mongrel. A team with grunt.

And speed. So much speed.

I can’t see the Maroons – as brave as they are – being able to deny the Blues victory.

NSW by 20

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Tim Gore

Expert

Tim has been an NRL statistician for ABC Radio Grandstand since 1999, primarily as part of their Canberra coverage. Tim has loved rugby league since Sterlo was a kid with lots of hair but was cursed with having no personal sporting ability whatsoever. He couldn't take a hit in footy, was a third division soccer player making up numbers, plays off 41 in golf and is possibly the world's worst cricketer ever. He has always been good at arguing the point though and he has a great memory of what happened.