The Sydney Swans have gone from premiership contender to also-ran in just two weeks. The fall has been swift and brutal.
Second on the ladder entering their Round 15 clash with Richmond and a chance to go a game clear on top, the Swans end Round 16 outside the top four and falling.
Sydney have been the most consistent team in the AFL this century. They’ve got a couple of flags to show for their toil, from five grand finals, with plenty of other September appearances. They’ve only missed finals once in the last 15 years.
The Swans brand has evolved over time, but has usually consisted of a few main facets – a deep midfield of strong bodies well versed in the stoppage craft and specializing in contested possessions, a resilient defence that can absorb forward 50 entries without leaking the corresponding score, and a star forward or two to grab the headlines.
Sydney’s midfield is no longer strong or deep.
It was less than two years ago they let Tom Mitchell leave with a minimum of fuss, not overly concerned.
He was one mid too many when All-Australians Josh Kennedy, Luke Parker, Dan Hannebery and Kieren Jack were on the books, with youngsters Isaac Heeney and Callum Mills rising up and sure to demand minutes through the centre square.
The wisdom of letting Mitchell go looked iffy at the time and has certainly turned disastrous.
In his time at the Hawks, he has broken all disposal records, has a top three in the Brownlow on his resume, and is currently raging favourite to take Charlie home this season. Oops.
Tom Mitchell of the Hawks. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Hannebery currently looks like the oldest 27-year-old to ever play the game. No-one has ever questioned his courage, commitment or relentless running, but now it takes him a minute to walk from the kitchen table to the fridge.
Jack isn’t travelling much better – hasn’t for a while – and may well call it quits at season’s end if he isn’t tapped on the shoulder first.
He was injured in the first quarter against Geelong on Thursday night but was coming off a one kick game against the heat of Richmond the week before.
Mills is out for the season and is yet to prove that he can influence games in the middle.
His football education has taken place in the easiest position on the ground as a half-back that has a license to peel off and intercept. It won’t be a surprise if he’s one of these players who reaches their ceiling early and maintains it from there.
Thus it has been left to Kennedy, the old dog with a damn fine trick, Parker, all hardness but lacking class except around goals, and Heeney, who is now the premier midfielder at the Swans.
(AAP Image/Dan Himbrechts)
It’s not hard to think we’d see the best of Heeney if he was outside the Sydney system, rather than shackled within. Still, he hasn’t achieved the level yet that he’s capable of, which is being an undeniable top five player in the league, to be mentioned in the same breath as Dusty, Danger, Buddy and Fyfe. He’s in the next wave along with Patrick Cripps, Charlie Curnow and Marcus Bontempelli who can usurp those names at the top.
Looking at the defensive end, Jake Lloyd is getting more football than ever before which is great for Sydney given he is one of the best kicks in the league. Jarrad McVeigh appears to have turned back the clock, using the ball as ever with a preternatural poise. Heath Grundy continues to get plaudits in what should be the twilight of his career.
The reason for all of this is because the ball is spending too much time down there. They are a good defensive team, probably a great one, so they do battle on when under-manned. They are incredibly resilient at absorbing opposition entries. Lloyd and McVeigh have been getting plenty of chances to run it out, which leads to an increase in individual numbers.
But there’s only so much they can take, and the dam wall is breaking against the better teams, due to the lack of midfield depth touched on earlier.
Where this is mainly being felt is up forward. The Swans just can’t kick scores against good sides.
Sydney have lost five games this year to Geelong, Richmond, North Melbourne, Adelaide and Port Adelaide.
Their scores in these games have been 59, 67, 66, 75 and 71 respectively, at an average of 67.6. It’s not enough. It’s not nearly enough.
The problem is, it’s getting worse. In losses to the Cats and Tigers over the last fortnight, the scoreboard has flattered the Swans. They lost by 12 points to Geelong but had less than half of the Cats scorings shots.
Against Richmond, they kicked a mercurial 11.1 from their limited opportunities, while conceding double the amount of scores.
Lance Franklin kicked four goals straight in each of those losses, meaning his accuracy (rarely reliable) made the scoreboard look better than it was, and the other avenues to a goal are severely lacking.
Lance Franklin and the Swans are in trouble. (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Buddy has been as much high half-forward as he has been a deeper target in his time at Sydney, devastating in either role, but even his athletic frame has lost a yard of pace as he hits the wrong side of 30.
Sydney needs him performing both duties. What they wouldn’t give for a player like Tim Membrey to be leading up out of the square, or pushing higher when Buddy is down there. That’s another oops.
Callum Sinclair has shown he can be a strong marking target up forward. If only the Swans had someone like Toby Nankervis to take up the rucking duties on his behalf. Triple oops.
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In summary, Sydney has major issues in both the midfield and forward-line, that only really gets exposed against their fellow contenders.
Their backline is still strong but ultimately breaks down under the weight of entries. There is only so long they can keep the wolves at bay.
The Swans have an interesting run home against a series of teams that are in the middle of the pack, that have each shown their best and worst throughout the year.
North, Essendon, Melbourne and Hawthorn are in this group. They also have Collingwood and arch-rivals GWS, who are probably the second and third best teams in it right now.
Sydney may scrap out a top-four finish. But they won’t be doing anything worthwhile with it. They’re just too limited.
Mark
Guest
You obviously know absolutely nothing about footy if you think Membrey would have made the current team any better. Every Swans fan will agree that Tippett was a bust but Membrey ain’t that great.
glenn
Guest
everything in this article is pretty much spot on about the swannies. Wow, if only they still had Mitchell, Nankervis and Membrey. Having Tippett on their books has really cost them a flag or two.
David Robertson
Guest
Obviously written by another jealous Melbourne club based person. The Swans will be in the last 2 weeks of the year. If that is not a successful year I don’t know what is. You said it yourself, the Swans have been successful in the past 15 seasons, this is not only smart recruitment within the rules, but a culture other clubs can dream of. The Tigers are the best team in the competition at the moment without question. However they might just have a bad day in September and the Swans could be there when it happens. It is ludicrous to right of the Swans with 6 rounds to go. I’d say you will be eating your words In a couple of months.
msto
Guest
Couldn't agree more. Been a swans fan since i moved here in 2000, been to 4 grannies. After going to the last 2 home games, I won't be attending again: their footy is so dull. Since 2012 scoring seems to have got worse year on year. Whilst I love Buddy, ultimately getting him and Tippo has cost us at least 1 flag in forcing us to lose the players mentioned in the article. We need a complete overhaul of game style, or the fans will start staying away...
IAP
Guest
Yep, B grade.
Paul D
Roar Guru
I don't think he'd trade Sydney for Brisbane Seeking to trade Sydney for Melbourne again with a few years left to run though, that is entirely possible. From an article from 2013. "Franklin's unprecedented contract, which sees him paid about $700,000 a year in 2014 and 2015, but it rises to around $1.2 million in the third season (2016) and remains at about $1.2 million in both years four (2017) and five (2018). The star forward is due $1.3 million in the sixth year (2019), $1.4 million in 2020 and is contracted to get close to $1.5 million - expected to be more than 10 per cent of the salary cap even then - in 2021, when he will be 35, before receiving 1 million in 2022." I reckon the contract was even structured like that so he'd have an exit plan if he decided in 2020 he wanted out. If Sydney can free up 2.5 million dollars over two years by letting him go and he wants to go, I can't see how that deal doesn't get done.
Paul D
Roar Guru
I think about the only club that would benefit from Ross atm would be the Suns, and even then only for a 2 year deal
Mark
Guest
I’m concerned you’re actually serious in thinking he’s worth anywhere near that.
Mark
Guest
Yep. Embarrassing comment by this author.
Mark
Guest
Sounds like every Hawks fan who cries when Titch gets 50 and the Hawks lose and people have the gall to say his possessions aren’t damaging. Yes, I wish we’d kept him but Cameron acts as though Sydney are the only team that lose players. His articles are getting progressively worse.
Bill Posters
Guest
Somebody in authority should be reminding the umpires in big matches that it is not the VFL any more. The pro-Victoria bias is blatant. A non-Victoria based team needs to be 40 points better to beat a Victoria team in a grand final. When the Victoria team has not won anything since Adam was a boy (e.g. Western Bulldogs) you can make that 50 points.
penguin
Guest
Not Aliir in the forward line. He has ben tried and failed. As a key back or interceptor he is going to be elite. It is the Swans forward line which is the problem
number11andfineleg
Guest
Parker, B Grader? 2nd 2016 Brownlow Medal, ahead of Martin, Sloane, Gaff, Bont …... If that's B Grade give us 22 of them.
Aligee
Roar Rookie
No, i have a fair idea, i do understand that the council is a waste of space, hopefully that will change, their stance on Australia day etc is just mind blowing. I would have thought however AFLW would be given a big leg up at Vic Park by the council, i am continually dumbfounded and saddened by the demise of local landmarks being torn down, Pubs converted into offices etc, before you know it the suburb will just be another bland nothing.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
Bloody oath.... Buddy is a star I think he’s certainly impacted the supporting cast ( guys squeezed salary cap) but I would take Buddy in a heart beat at the Lions. Heck I wonder if he what’s to come and do a Hodgey in the forward half of the ground ?
DingoGray
Roar Guru
As a Brisbane Lions supporting living in NSW surrounded by Swan supporters in my house (wife and two kids) I live for a time where Sydney are languishing.... Hell I’ve told my wife enough.... just once would it be nice to say haha now you know how I feel.... As for Sydney, plenty of my mates sit in the Horse has gone stale category. While he’s been a great coach he doesn’t seem to have anything new. Let’s face it the crux of a good young nuclous is there. One for me that I’m little confused is Aliir. Two years ago he go his 1st taste and made a immediate impact, only to have plateau (until the last month). Look at a couple others like Cunningham and Towers who haven’t really taken the next step. I still can’t see them coming a complete basket case. There market is too relient on a competitive team. I tend to agree with a couple of others on this forum and they should look to try get what they can for guys like Rohan and even Reid just to see if they can change something. But for me with Ireland leaving maybe the next one should be Horse.
Christo the Daddyo
Guest
"buddy past his best" There isn't a team in the AFL that wouldn't bend over backwards to have Franklin in their team.
Christo the Daddyo
Guest
Birdman - at the time of Mitchell's departure, the Swans had multiple options of that player type. The club has only been exposed due to a couple of older players dropping off in form alarmingly quickly and markedly - which I challenge anyone to genuinely say they predicted. As others have pointed out, the Swans were able to gain other types of players (which turned out to be Florent and Hayward) that they needed from a team balance point of view. And to turn your own argument around, what would it take for you NOT to criticise the trade - a Swans flag?
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
A direct swap? Longmire for Ross Lyon and horse to try and deliver Freo's first flag.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Aligee you have no idea of Collingwood Council and their politics. If you want to talk about geriatrics getting in the way then go to a council meeting. Collingwood council are the suburbs biggest obstacle. They should make Eddie Mayor, he could do a better job working 3 hours a week on it.