St Kilda Saints vs Carlton Blues: Friday Night Forecast

Oh boy, it’s finally here. The suckiest Friday night match-up that ever sucked.

I knew it was coming – it’s not like the fixture has just been sprung on us – but I was in denial, after a month of mostly decent match-ups, that this one was on the horizon.

It could be worse; one of these sides could be taking on one of the top teams. At least it should be competitive.

St Kilda and Carlton fans can put down the 2018 draft previews and under-18 profiles for a night and reasonably hope to see their side add four points to their measly season tallies.

For the Blues, a win would not only take some heat off coach Brendon Bolton, but could give them the spark they need to avoid another wooden spoon with games to come against the Suns, Dockers and Bulldogs.

The Saints aren’t in quite as dire a situation, having tasted victory twice in the past three weeks – including a two-point win over the Demons that is the clear highlight of their season – but three wins is certainly not what they would have expected at this stage of the season.

Dejected Saints players (AAP Image/Joe Castro)

St Kilda were a joy to watch two weeks ago against Melbourne, boldly spreading the ball from defence into an open forward line and exposing the Demons in space. Jade Gresham and Tim Membrey each booted four and will be crucial again tonight.

Membrey is an excellent hit-up forward who once upon a time was fine kick for goal, but it is Gresham who is most important – perhaps in the entire team. The diminutive Saint has a knack for finding the footy in dangerous positions and is damaging when he’s got it.

St Kilda got 80 points from turnovers against the Dees, which was their second-highest total of the season, behind the 85 they scored against the Lions in Round 1. In both matches, the majority of those turnover scoring chains began in the defensive half (56 points against Brisbane and 46 against Melbourne).

Those numbers are indicative of how the Saints have played this season, and perhaps also of why they’ve struggled. More than 55 per cent of St Kilda’s scores from turnovers begin in the back half, which is the second highest mark in the league behind Essendon – league average is 46.4 per cent.

When the Saints get it going it’s great to watch, but it’s living dangerously to play the game in your opponent’s half.

The Blues must bring the pressure when play is in their half of the ground and limit St Kilda’s transition options. If they can force the Saints to bomb it into their attack, Liam Jones – the No.1 intercept marker in the league at 3.9 a game – and his teammates should be able to pick the ball off.

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Carlton have, at times, under Bolton been a smart and disciplined defensive team. The signs were good just a week ago against Brisbane, unfortunately for the Blues it lasted only a quarter before they were torn apart. Perhaps the return of 300-gamer Kade Simpson will help them keep their heads when the going gets tough – Simpson is a marvel.

For all the gloom of this season, the shining lights at Princes Park have been Patrick Cripps and Charlie Curnow. They might be 18th, but they are two of the most exciting young players in the league – at 23, is Cripps still a ‘young player’?

Cripps is a ball-hunting monster the likes of which we’ve rarely seen and while his kicking can let him down, he has used the ball more smartly in the past month or so, and that’s major progress. It’s a given that he’ll get plenty of the footy tonight; it’s what he does with the ball that could determine the game’s outcome.

As for Curnow, he’s booted ten goals in the three games since signing his big extension. That reported $800,000 deal doesn’t even kick in until 2020. Bargain.

AAP Image/Julian Smith

The gun young-forward can probably expect to have Jake Carlisle for company at times tonight, though the Saints would prefer Carlisle to roam and pick the ball off in the air – Carlisle is second to Jones for intercept marks a game at 3.8. Carlisle will be comfortable in the air against the Curnow, but the Blue’s agility makes him a nightmare on the lead and when the ball is on the deck. They loom as two of tonight’s most important players.

It would be a mistake to write tonight off as meaningless, with two teams focused on the future; pressure comes quickly in this league. Alan Richardson avoided some heat when his side got out of jail against Gold Coast a few weeks ago, but he’ll feel it if they lose.

As for Bolton, there’s seemingly been a target on his back all season – which must be a relief for some of the other blokes pulling the strings at Carlton.

I’m expecting the Blues to be up for the fight, and a couple of moments of Charlie Curnow brilliance to prove the difference in a ten-point Carlton win.

That’s my Friday night forecast. What’s yours?