Rarely can a season have had so many permutations heading into the final five rounds.
Every result is crucial as so many teams are on a knife’s edge. Every goal, for or against, carries weight.
Geelong beat Melbourne after the siren in one of the best games of the year, and their reward was dropping out of the eight after starting the round inside it.
Adelaide entered Round 17 in 11th place on the ladder and two games out of the eight. They’ve since beaten Geelong and escaped from the Gabba with the four points. Both wins were full of merit, yet now the Crows find themselves in 12th.
Sydney were fourth after Round 15, and in the three games have lost two (including a humiliating defeat to Gold Coast at the SCG after being five goals up) and beaten North by a solitary kick, yet somehow remain in fourth.
Nothing can be taken for granted, and there are banana skins everywhere. Almost every round in the back half of the season has seen a team slip on one.
West Coast, supposedly impenetrable in Perth, were whipped by an Essendon sitting 11 spots below them on the ladder.
In Round 15, Geelong allowed the Western Bulldogs to pip them and Melbourne showed all their trademark mental weakness in going down to St Kilda.
In Round 17, Hawthorn were brought undone by Brisbane down in their Tasmanian fortress after being in control of the game. Port were limp against Fremantle in Perth in an unforgivable display.
And of course, Saturday saw the upset of the season with the aforementioned Gold Coast victory over Sydney. Ladder predictors were thrown into absolute turmoil after that result, as were Sydney’s finals chances.
West Coast are back on track after a midseason lull that was always going to happen, particularly once they got injuries to Josh Kennedy, Jack Darling and Mark LeCras. Nic Naitanui’s ACL will have no material impact on the Eagles premiership chances.
GWS are charging, having found an excellent balance between pressure football, defence and attack, and are now hard to back against securing a top-four spot. Sydney currently sit in fourth but are a dead team walking.
Port fluctuates, as they seem to have ever done under Ken Hinkley. It’s hard to know what you’re going to get from them – quarter to quarter, game to game, season to season.
When Melbourne finally figure out how to stop beating themselves, they’ll start beating the opposition. The future is theirs for the taking, and it’s not too late for them to put it all together and threaten the flag this year.
Hawthorn and North aren’t good enough but have easier draws than the better sides above them, which will keep things interesting. Geelong aren’t either, but they’ll always be in the conversation with the individual brilliance of Dangerfield, Ablett, Selwood and Hawkins.
Essendon and Adelaide are coming from too far back, with only one real ‘gimme’ each to the bank in the run home. They can cause a headache or two though.
And then there is Richmond and Collingwood.
(Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
The Tigers stand atop the football world right now. As reigning premier, we know they have the quality and the temperament to get the job done, but just as importantly the ability to peak in September. They’ve been able to maintain the mindset of being the hunter rather than the hunted, and it serves them well.
Collingwood is looking up from underneath, intent on taking the crown. Given Richmond’s peerless record at the MCG, where the grand final will be played, many feel that a co-tenant is football’s best chance to derail the Tiger train.
They might be right.
Watching the Pies pressure around the ball is like seeing a clone of Richmond. Collingwood’s weakness, a lack of height in defence, will not be a problem against the Tigers. Their forward-line is multi-faceted and dynamic.
On the whole, the Pies have quite an unconventional team. As the Western Bulldogs did in 2016. As Richmond did in 2017. If you can throw a different look at the competition, and believe in what you’ve got, anything is possible.
The question mark over Collingwood is still whether they can match it with the top sides. They’ve already lost to Richmond, West Coast and GWS this year, who are probably the best three teams in it.
They get the chance to stamp their credentials all over the premiership race this weekend when they take on the Tigers this Saturday afternoon at the MCG with 90,000 people in attendance.
If the Pies can win, they establish themselves as the absolute real deal. More than that, they will show the rest of the competition that Richmond are beatable at the MCG, and the premiership race will be blown wide open.
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anon
Roar Pro
GWS are a better side now than what they were a couple months ago.
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
The substance behind Eddie Maguire's comments about Franklin going to the Swans was that Sydney was using its additional space in the salary cap designed to compensate players for the supposed additional costs of living in Sydney as a slush fund to attract high profile players away from their other clubs. At the time Swans officials had been openly boasting about how they used the addition money available to them and Franklin was not the first, but Jolley was also an example.
Mungo
Guest
Maybe not. I find it intriguing that Collingwood are chasing Tom Lynch when they are second on the ladder. When Buddy Franklin went to the Swans, Eddie claimed that he should have gone to a struggling Victorian club like the Bulldogs or St Kilda I think. Darren Jolly comes back to Victoria and where does he end up - Collingwood...Eddie - no wonder people have mixed feelings about you.
Fat Toad
Guest
Need anyone say anymore? From SBS news 25/7/2018 Despite the comfortable margin Hardwick says there was plenty to like about Collingwood. "I remember after playing them in round six I thought they were an outstanding side," Hardwick said on Thursday. "We took some things that they were doing - we thought they were doing them really well - and added a few of those dynamics to our game. "Bucks (Nathan Buckley) is coaching them really well and they're playing really well so it's going to be an incredible challenge for us."
Chris
Guest
September is a different ball game!
Chris
Guest
Chris
Guest
Max, you can keep your stats! This Magpie team is a work in progress outfit. Hence, any statistics mean absolutely nothing. By the seasons' end you will get a fairer indication of what they are really like. It is a team in a state of flux. The one thing that Richmond have over them is experience under pressure and their more physical nature could find them out. But, if the day is fine and the runners put their skates on..the tiges may lose their stripes!
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Thanks Max, FWIW I have highlighted this anomaly to the Pies brains trust during the week. Let's see if the Tigers in the third qtr try and chip it around a bit and make the Pies chase while Martin, Cotch and Co increase their Interchange time.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Because Slane they are clearly doing way better in the other three quarters. It is an anomaly that has lasted 18 rounds and that isn't a fluke. What are your percentages the other three quarters for the season?
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
Thanks, I am also interested in your thoughts about the game.
Tom
Guest
West Coast have already beaten the man twice this year and are the only team to beat them in the last 7 weeks and that was without their forward line I don’t think they’d fear them at all
Max Hatzoglou
Roar Pro
This definitely can be a strategy Cam. The longer the game goes on, the more games will open up because players get fatigued and will be out of position towards the later stages of a game. By saving energy for the last quarter, the Tigers could be using this as a strategy for exploiting any structural problems that Collingwood might have in the last quarter due to fatigue. And it is likely that they use it as a strategy because the last time they met this season, a blow occurred in the last quarter with Richmond extending their margin by 32 points. You have brought up some great stats Peter the Scribe.
Bretto
Roar Rookie
Good observation Perry. Cox turning into an actual footballer as opposed to a project has made a massive difference. I'd probably rather him up forward than Reid now. Although Reid down back on the power forwards sounds sensible. The other main reason the Pies are winning games is simple, disposal efficiency. We used to butcher the ball time after time when spreading forward, which simply kills you on the way back. Crisp was a shocker at this, but has really cut down the number of unforced turnovers each game. I don't think we are quite ready this year, but it's certainly been more enjoyable than the last 5 years!
Raimond
Roar Guru
As good as Collingwood have been this season, their form at the MCG has been OK, and that's it.
Aransan
Roar Rookie
I wouldn't read too much into Essendon's last quarter against Collingwood. After Ambrose went down with a hamstring injury they had to move Guelfi to the back line which affected their midfield, they were down on rotations, Stringer was very restricted in the second half due to injury and Myers was also restricted. A good victory by Collingwood just the same.
Slane
Guest
Giants, Eagles and Port. All the teams that Collingwood couldn't beat this season.
Slane
Guest
Why? With a percentage of 96 in the 3rd quarter it would suggest Richmond's average losing margin across that quarter is only 1 or 2 points. This weekend the Tigers kicked 3.3 and St Kilda kicked 3.4. Its a losing quarter, but who really cares?
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Love your work Mr Toad.
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
My interests in sports, games, politics and war all relate to strategy and tactics. To my eye, the problem with Collingwood's game of the last few seasons has been speed on foot and accuracy of the ball delivered into the forward line. This lead to other teams being able to put pressure on Collingwood's exit from contests and push them away from the type of football Buckley wanted them to play. In turn this led to poor exits from defence and delivery into the forward line. This year mid-fielders have been noticeably taking advantage of shorter kicks into the forward line and getting better one on contests best key defenders can not zone off like in earlier years. These problems were obvious to many ex-player commentators but less obvious to many journalists and generalist commentators. Two people can see the same game and get totally different interpretations of the events. Many pundits criticised Collingwood for playing around the boundary under Malthouse and made much of their poor goals to points ratio. But they kept doing it and won a GF. It was about three years after Malthouse adopted the strategy that Leigh Matthews realised that it was not about getting the best angle to goal, but about lobbing the ball into a part of the ground where it was almost impossible for defenders to clear the ball. It gave Collingwood the highest number of shots at goal and denied the opposition forwards access to scoring opportunities. Some people play backgammon five moves ahead while others play one roll of the dice at a time. One system gives you snakes and ladders while the other gives you a game of depth and complexity where chance is an intrinsic component of the game.
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
The subtlety of your insight is a lesson to us all.