Port Adelaide could certainly beat Essendon this Friday night. But the Gold Coast Suns ain’t beating the Cats at the Cattery. Ladies and gentlemen: your top eight for 2018 has been decided.
Someone had to miss out, and it looks as though it will be Port Adelaide. Football is a zero-sum game in the literal sense of the phrase: someone wins and someone loses. The Power has been on the losing side of that harsh equation plenty of late.
Port Adelaide had grand designs for 2018. They will end up getting 59 of a possible 66 games out of its three high-profile recruits (Steven Motlop, Tom Rockliff and Jack Watts), and a total of 14 players will have played 20 games or more on the year. Their fixture turned out to be one of the weaker in the competition; Port won five games away from the Adelaide Oval, and were 3-4 in games decided by less than two goals. They have had the kind of season you would expect a finals-bound team to have.
From 11-4 in Round 16 to a truly staggering 12-9 with one game to go, Port Adelaide needs a miracle to return to the September stage in 2018. In most years, 12-10 with a percentage around the 110 mark is enough to play off for the premiership; 13-9 with a similar percentage has almost always been enough to have your passport stamped. But this year, with the weird distribution of wins and chunky percentage of teams kicking around the bottom of the eight, will mean it’s not enough.
Can they still make it? Mathematically, yes. But remember folks, ‘mathematical chance’ is a polite way of saying the season is over. We will deal with the aftermath in due course.
North Melbourne was also all-but technically eliminated this weekend, losing to the Adelaide Crows away from home. There is no shame in that, nor is there any shame in the season the ‘Roos have put together. Theirs looms as a busy off-season.
So then there were eight. And after this weekend’s results, we know very little about the first week of finals action.
Richmond will host a qualifying final – likely to be a Thursday night – but their opponent could be any of West Coast, Collingwood, Hawthorn or Sydney depending on next week’s results. The second qualifying final host will come from that group too, though West Coast would appear to be in the box seat given the club has a win over the other three sides.
We know Geelong won’t be the home side for their first final, presuming they beats the Gold Coast Suns (and guys, the line is set at a cool 12-and-a-half goals). The Cats can rise as high as seventh should they win and Melbourne lose against the Giants. Otherwise, lock in eighth spot.
But honestly that’s about it.
Melbourne’s stirring win over the West Coast Eagles (head over to my live blog and match report for some thoughts on that match) means they will be playing in September for the first time since 2006.
(Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)
Nathan Jones is the only player on Melbourne’s list from that year still at the club (Lynden Dunn is now at Collingwood). The club has been through some stuff since their loss to Fremantle in the 2006 semi-final. So has the world; the smartphone that you’re probably reading this on was just a twinkle in the eye of Steve Jobs.
The Dees were staring down the barrel of another year on the September sidelines not more than a week ago. Another close loss to another prospective finalist in Sydney had the commentariat hyperventilating about Melbourne’s collective ticket. They should have instead focussed on what the club can do when it clicks into place, as they did against the Eagles and as they might just do week in, week out from here.
Melbourne face the GWS Giants for the right to host a home elimination final in Week 1 of the finals. If the Dees win, they will finish in at least fifth spot, and they could rise as high as fourth should Collingwood lose to whatever it is Ross Lyon has cooking over there at Fremantle.
The Giants can too jump into the top four if they beat the Dees and the Pies lose, but would similarly more likely find themselves in fifth spot hosting either the Dees or Cats (depending on the percentage boost Geelong can deliver for itself against the Suns).
The other swing outcome of the weekend was the Sydney Swans’ victory over the Giants. The Swans have done their best impression of the WWE’s Undertaker, rising up from the canvas when all hope looked lost.
Since they too faced their moment of mortality, Sydney have bludgeoned their way to three straight wins against fellow finalists (albeit two by two points and nine points respectively). In the process, the Swans have put themselves in the frame for an unlikely top-four finish, should they knock off the Hawks on Saturday night.
Let me just go over that again briefly: Sydney has a chance to go into the top four with a win over Hawthorn on Saturday night. If they lose, Hawthorn goes in. The entire football universe will be watching that one.
(Photo: Adam Trafford/Getty Images)
Hawthorn is in that spot by virtue of a scrappy but still effective win over St Kilda. The Hawks have revolutionised their game plan, as we discussed early in the year, and could well challenge for this year’s premiership if some things – like an injury or ten to Richmond – go their way. If not, they will certainly be thereabouts again in 2019 and beyond as another aggressive off-season lurks over the horizon.
Both Collingwood and West Coast have their own destinies in the palms of their hands – or talons, as it were. If the Pies beat the Dockers in the Saturday twilight by more than 18 points (the early-week line is set at 33.5), they will overtake West Coast. Hawthorn could jump the Pies into second if they beat Sydney by four more points than the Pies beat the Dockers.
Then, West Coast would need to win against the Lions to leapfrog them both. Both Collingwood and Hawthorn can win by less than 18 and 22 points respectively and West Coast will be safe regardless of what happens on Sunday.
Of course, if Fremantle somehow wins, and Sydney beats Hawthorn, and West Coast loses to the Lions then it all comes down to margins to sort out the top four. It’s a complex set of circumstances that’ll come down to a couple of decimal places of percentage one predicts.
What a fitting way to end this season. We might be down to our eight finalists, but there’s still so much at stake in the final round of the year.
Goalsonly
Roar Rookie
Football is a zero-sum game in the literal sense of the phrase: someone wins and someone loses. This is true but there's also a big fat lie hidden in this comment. Sport is far more important than we know and our government in just cottoning on. It's really all about mastering our bodies, learning team communication skills and competing to find out what we've got inside. That's why we have rivals .... to find out we can do .... not just to beat them. The numbers on the scoreboard and the ladder are all powerful symbols and we fall under their spell like the guy in the front row at a hypnotist show. But they don't tell us that much really do they? It's the game and the way we see it played that's the true show. Goals are the reward and you know what ....? We'd have a far more accurate record of onfield drama if we just tallied up the goals... And a more exciting final round with even Essendon still alive. Here's the Goals only ladder.. Melbourne 321 Richmond 296 Collingwood 289 West Coast 281 Hawthorn 278 Geelong 276 North Melb 268 Essendon 263 GWS 260 Sydney 258
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
No you can't always get what you want TTF as you see below. I mean you clearly wanted it to take another five years for us to make finals but it seems we are there. As for your Carlton prediction below? Oh dear. truetigerfan said | August 24th 2017 @ 4:31pm | ! Report 6 years into an absolute debacle. One that will take a good 5 years and plenty of tears to recover from. And that’s 5 years from the time Buckley leaves the job. Carlton are in a much better position than Collingwood. Burkey’s dreaming, lashing out in anger and frustration, poor luv! Reply
Griffo
Guest
For me growing up in the 90s, a decade that had no close Grand Finals, '02 was the first close Grand Final I ever watched. This game holds a special memory for me especially for that reason. I didn't realise Aker did his groin in that game. All said and done a great effort to snap the match sealing goal over his shoulder. Can't forget a tearful Paul Licuria being consoled by an equally tearful Mick Malthouse after the game. They dared to dream and they came up just short, but that is the nature of Grand Finals.
The Brazilian
Roar Rookie
Hot air, dude. Can't always get you want.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
TTF, firstly we need to beat Freo this week. We take nothing for granted. I much prefer to play the Tigers in week one than the Eagles at either the G or in Perth. I want to play Tigers week one. After all, it is the best way of sending Richmond to Perth for a prelim and you simply don't beat decent sides playing away as losses to the Crows, Port, Eagles and GWS showed.
SportsFanGC
Roar Guru
TomC - The Riverina has produced and continues to produce more AFL level footballers than all of FNQ and Gold Coast combined, along with producing a higher level of footballer as well. The fact that GWS were gifted that region to select footballers with academy picks, and without at least giving Sydney a look, was just ridiculous from the AFL. While the Gold Coast might produce more players than Western Sydney it doesn't mean much when the quality of footballer is not exactly an AFL standard player. The Suns have Joyce, Heron, Crossley, Scheer and Spencer from the GC (Palm-Beach Currumbin) and while young, have produced nothing at this stage to excite the locals. Bowes is the great white hope and showing good signs and he is the lone FNQ academy pick in 8 years and there won't be any this year. Compare that list with the players that GWS has picked up from the Riverina and the difference is huge.
RT
Roar Rookie
Cat I didn't bring up the Syd game. I pointed out we have hosted teams at Etihad when it is there home ground. You know very well you indicated several times that Richmond playing StK at Etihad is not even remotely similar to Geel hosting Rich at MCG. Your reason was Geel and Melb are different cities and when challenged you said you stood by this. Anyone can see this is a pathetic argument. It us not like travelling from Perth. I did not make a comment on the fairness for Geel but simply pointed out the similarity that other teams face. You are so blind you can't see this similarity and just want to think Geelong is the victim.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
And one of the best divers since Greg Louganis.
The Brazilian
Roar Rookie
Very nervous times for the Pies. Don't wanna' face the Tiges in Week 1 yet would rather not face the Eagles out west either. Lose and their Week 2 clash could spell the end. Would love to see them finish 2nd, assuming the Tiges win in Week 1, then win or lose they have to beat us somewhere along the line to win the flag. Not happening!
David C
Guest
Its going to be hard to drop Higgins as well.
TomC
Roar Guru
There were a lot of false assumptions that led to the Suns getting fewer concessions than they needed - in particular starting first was seen as an advantage when really it was a disadvantage. GWS were able to learn from the Suns' mistakes. But I have to take issue with your second point, SFGC. It's silly to directly compare the Riverina and FNQ rather than the whole of the academy zones; the Suns have access to the Gold Coast itself, which of course produces many more players than Western Sydney.
Gerard Klomp
Guest
Brisbane just can not beat The Eagles in Brisbane. I know it is Brisbane home game but the lions have a very poor record again the Eagles in Brisbane. the Eagles do have two former Brisbane players in Elliot Yeo and Jack Redden. Sadly for Brisbane Yeo and Redden are in very good form for the Eagles. It is the Eagles home away from Home at the GAAB. Sorry to say but Eagles by 40 points.
User
Roar Rookie
I'm sure lroy will make his case but Pete he didn't complain once. Your jumping at shadows mate.
Chris
Guest
This week will be important no doubt. Collinqwood cannot afford to lose to Fremantle. I think the Swans have less motivation than Hawthorn to win this week. Losing would mean that they would be playing GWS at home, isn't that so? If that is the match up they would take it and then hope to play Hawthorn in the second week of finals. That would set them up for a Preliminary Final against Collingwood or WCE.
User
Roar Rookie
It's better than 05/06. The margins flatter the extended boring periods in those two, but the 02 is a great great game.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Buddy in doubt with a groin - quick, get on the Hawks.
Gerard Klomp
Guest
The Eagles have a great record in Brisbane. the Lions can not seam to beat The Eagles in Brisbane. The Eagles Record in Brisbane is 12 to Eight in the Eagles Favor , and all up record 34 to 12. So the Eagles have a better chance of an so called upset in Brisbane than the Lions do at their home Ground we the Eagles dominate them more than any other Team. The Eagles by 40 points on Sunday.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Lroy, are you serious? With the injury count to GWS, Cats, Dogs, Pies, Swans, Crows this year and you complain about two players out? You do know the Demons were missing their captain (Viney), their best forward, (Hogan) and their key recruit and defensive player (Lever)?
SportsFanGC
Roar Guru
Just a quick correction - GWS concessions far exceeded the Suns upon their entry to the competition. In no specific order: 1. Draft Concessions: The Giants had two years of concessions versus one for the Suns; 2. Recruiting Zone: They Giants were gifted the NSW Riverina as a recruiting zone which has produced AFL players for decades (and has nothing to do with Western Sydney) while the Gold Coast has Far North Queensland which is not exactly an area rich in history in producing AFL level players; 3. Elite Training Facility: The AFL gifted the Giants a $20M Elite Training Facility at Homebush as soon as practicable while the Suns were forced to wait 7 years from entry into the League for the Queensland Government and Gold Coast City Council to build the Carrara Sports Precinct for the Commonwealth Games; and 4. Money: The AFL negotiated a 10 year Agreement with the ACT Government to play 3 games a year in Canberra in a 10 year, $23M commitment whereas the Suns have no such deal and play all 11 home games at Metricon Stadium. 5. Executive Staff: The AFL poached Travis Auld from the Suns which arguably set them back 3-4 years until the appointment of Mark Evans at the start of 2017. The above are not the only reasons the Giants have progressed so much further than the Suns and I fully acknowledge that the Suns have made an extraordinary number of mistakes with regard to off-field appointments and their recruiting of rubbish experienced players.
pioneer
Guest
'West Coast would appear to be in the box seat given the club has a win over the other three sides.' Great article with some excellent analysis, but the above is not true - Sydney beat West Coast in both their clashes this year. As an aside, of those teams referred to (West Coast, Collingwood, Hawthorn), Sydney is undefeated against all of them so far this season. That may change this weekend, of course, although hopefully not!