If you’re a Geelong fan looking for an analogy to keep you warm, the one for this weekend is Richmond vs Carlton, 2013.
Those Tigers, like this year’s Demons, were the young, hyped, unproven upstart. The Blues were the disappointing and only vaguely dangerous veteran team, with talent in the ranks but not the results that year.
Richmond finished fifth, Carlton eighth, the Blues only sneaking in because Essendon were kicked out.
The Tigers were the better team, but Carlton had Chris Judd, Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs and finals experience. Richmond shot out of the gate but were run down, worn down by expectation, exuberance overcome by calmness.
This weekend’s first elimination final has a similar feel. The Demons are the better team, with the better bodies, but, you would expect, the weaker minds. This Geelong team is better than that Carlton team, filled with powerful, veteran names and quality all over the ground.
But those names, and that quality, has more or less been there all year. So why did the Cats finish eighth, needing help in the past fortnight to even get in? (Where the Blues profited from Essendon’s drug scandal, Geelong profited from Port Adelaide’s season-long coaching scandal.)
The Cats are a weird team that only comes to life when they’re closest to death. They almost always seem shackled, and regularly sleep-walk through games, an odd mix of lethargy, age and disinterest. When they’re off they look slow, sometimes utterly clueless, like in the second quarter against Hawthorn a month ago.
The forward line and defence both get exposed by pace, the fast-walk of Daniel Menzel – his version of running – symbolic of the team.
AAP Image/Julian Smith
If there’s one weakness that’s immediately obvious about the Cats, it’s their lack of mania. Richmond and Collingwood play crazed football – the pressure is intense and suffocating, players possessed, flying around inside a purposeful, kill-mode pinball machine on grass.
Even when they’re on, the Cats don’t play with that level of defensive force – they play sensible instead of manic, often to their detriment. But at their best, they seem unstoppable in their own way.
Their version of unstoppable is simple: Patrick Dangerfield, Joel Selwood and Gary Ablett around stoppages, with able assistance from Tim Kelly and Mitch Duncan.
The recent finals quarters against Melbourne and Hawthorn, and the final five minutes in the narrow loss to Richmond, were advertisements for how good Geelong can be. Dangerfield, Selwood and Ablett are still absurdly good. When they’re desperate they can’t be stopped or even blunted. They’re too strong and too smart, too quick-twitch in close to be contained.
Their class is majestic – go back and look at how the chain began leading to Zach Tuohy’s after-the-siren goal against Melbourne. Ablett receives the ball under duress in defence and instead of blazing away, as a Melbourne player (and almost any other player) surely would have done, he takes a split-second, spots Tom Stewart out of the corner of his eye, and dishes a perfect handball to unleash Stewart into space.
Gary Ablett (Photo by Mark Dadswell/Getty Images)
In the clutch, especially in finals, the game so often comes down to hardness and class around the ball. The Cats are unmatched in that department – but they’re heavily ‘matched’ almost everywhere else. They still have enough to make a run, though. They have height, composure and skill in defence, and Tom Hawkins in attack.
More than anything, they have belief. Selwood, Dangerfield and Ablett have been here so many times – no stage holds any fear for them, and that confidence oozes into the rest of the team. With Ablett playing his first final in eight years, and Selwood and Dangerfield surely starting to feel their football mortality, if only a little, you would expect all three to play each final as though it’s their last.
This Melbourne team can be got. They feel destined to lose to an inferior team. The talent is immense but the defensive commitment is not, and when the game is on the line they get timid, double-clutching at balls that should be clean, and hurrying possessions when they should be absorbing contact.
If the game is close on Friday night, both Geelong and Melbourne will believe that Geelong is going to win. The question is whether or not the Cats are good enough to keep it close in the first place.
Hawk12
Guest
Pete the scribe. How bad was your call the cats would win by 30 plus. U either were using reverse psychology cause u wanted dees to win or u are delusional. Cats were lucky to make the 8 in the first place and are poor off a bye. And they struggle against strong contested teams. Dees were always going to win
Mark Soong
Roar Rookie
If you look at this year AFL 2018, the mid range team from 3rd to 10/11 the ladder position is extremely competitive, the finals equation is not sorted out until end of Round 22 and the final slot only confirmed after Port Adelaide defeat at home to the Bombers. The Cats have qualfied for the finals bar 2012 with double chance gained and they only exited in straight sets in 2014. Ever since Bulldogs fairy tale run in 2016, it kills the theory that premiership can only be won with double chance secured. The key thing is if the Cats can win tonight against Melboure, I will put my confidence of a win against the Hawks in the 1st semi-finals. Now, the tricky portion against the Eagles at Perth. Two hoodoo, Geelong is 0-3 in the PF since the 2011 premiership and secondly the Eagles record at Perth. Geelong did come back well in this season Round 3 clash against the Eagles coming back from 5 goals down to even hit the front at the last quarter only for Eagles to run home with a 15 point win. If Geelong able to break its PF hoodoo, I will give them even money chance in the GF against the Tigers. If things get close at the last quarter, the Cats will nick it this time round.
Andrew Young
Roar Guru
Interesting that for the better part of the season, the Cats only seem to let loose when the game is on the line or seemingly gone. Perhaps we saw this shift in the last two weeks against Freo and GC; yes they are weak opponents, but often Geelong don't put those sides away to the extent they did. Pulsating and uncompromising; if they can bring that from first bounce to final siren tonight, there is no question in my mind that they'll get up.
PeteB
Guest
The Cats played the Demons twice this season and beat them twice. Not sure why you would rank Melbourne as a better team. Potential maybe, but they’ve continually showed an inability to beat the top teams, with the exception of the last two weeks. It’s close to a 50/50 game, but even given their inconsistent form throughout the year I still feel the Cats are more reliable then the Dees who have shown they are the next biggest chokers after a Port Adelaide.
Tonka Goldman
Roar Rookie
I laughed at "lacklustre" and "salvage". Indicative of the extent to which the writer is so out of touch and unqualified to give an opinion. Nothing mentioned on how meticulously schooled this team is. The Geelong Way is Sun Tsu's "Art Of War" of football. Why the refusal to give full consideration to injury management throughout the regular season. Proof? As you said. Look no further than the close finishes and lack of cricket scores, yet an enviable percentage. The first 9 rounds of the season were first gear. PURE management and assessment. Only a very brave man would bet their house against Ablett, Dangerfield, Kelly and Selwood dominating through the middle this final series. That midfield group is ready to shift into 5th gear and cut loose. The only thing that stands in the way would be a trip to Perth in the Prelim. Not ideal preparation for a GF. If Collingwood defeat West Coast this week Geelong are box-seated to be 2018 Premiers.
Cat
Roar Guru
Least points conceded, fourth most points scored and the lowest average losing margin (almost a goal better than the next best) ... not bad for the worst skilled side in the 8.
Joe
Guest
For a side that "fast-walks" through games rather than runs, its pretty incredible only a single team all year managed to beat Geelong by more than 3 goals.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
You state "regularly sleep-walk through games, an odd mix of lethargy, age and disinterest" - I don't think any side in any game is ever disinterested, not even Carlton or The Suns particularly in season. Cats will beat Melbourne easy and then beat the loser of Rich V Haw sending them out in straight sets.
Brian
Guest
Geelong are the worst skilled side in the 8. I don't know what metric to use for that but that is why the side easily top 4 in mids, easily top 4 in fitness and easily top 4 in size and strengh finished 8th. You can't teach someone to kick better or make a better decision in 2 weeks. Melbourne by plenty.
User
Roar Rookie
Geelong will make the preliminary final
Howie
Roar Pro
Demons had a soft draw, Geelong one of the hardest. 1 game separated them at the end of the season. Sure, I will bet everything on the soft draw team.