Panthers vs Warriors: The ultra definitive stats preview

Just as the ladder positions one through four were decided by 85 points on the for-and-against scale, ladder positions five through eight were decided by 31 points.

The Panthers scored 31 points more than the Warriors during the home and away season and that’s why they are hosting the Warriors.

And that home ground advantage – if you can call ANZ Stadium a Panthers home ground – could be the most telling factor in this game.

The Warriors have played six away matches this season against other top eight sides for a three and three record. However, of those three wins the only one that has come since Round 4 was their Round 18 victory over the Broncos at Suncorp. Just the week before they were hammered by the Panthers at the foot of the mountains 36-4.

But the Panthers’ form against top eight sides isn’t exactly flash. Of the nine games they have played against this year’s finalist they’ve won four, lost five.

They’ve only won one away from home – against a severely injury depleted Storm side in the last round. Their other three victories were at home to the Dragons, Rabbitohs and Warriors.

Perhaps this is the battle of the pretenders? However, We still have Jimmy Maloney (who I love!), Shaun Johnson, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Viliame Kikau, Regan Campbell-Gillard, Josh Mansour, David Fusitua and Solomone Kata in this game so it aint gonna be boring!

Defence

Team Stats – average per game 2018

Stat	Panthers	Warriors	Difference
Line breaks conceded	4.5	4.6	+0.1 Warriors
Missed tackles	29.9	28.5	+1.4 Panthers
Tries conceded	3.2	3	+0.2 Panthers
Errors	10.2	9.8 (#2 in NRL)	+0.4 Panthers
Metres conceded	1287.6 (#2 NRL)	1374.9	+87.3 Warriors
Penalties conceded	9.4 (#16 in NRL)	8.5	+0.9 Panthers
Offloads conceded	7.8 (#1 in NRL)	8.6	+0.8 Warriors

Well we can certainly expect the Panthers to concede a lot of penalties in this match but conceding offloads is not their jam at all.

Or conceding metres it seems. They are second only to the Storm in their metre-conceding frugality. And really that’s the major difference between the defences of these sides: the Panthers concede far fewer metres.

We can expect a fair few line breaks in this game I reckon. Neither side will die wondering and both sides line defence isn’t stellar.

Simon Mannering can bow out with his head held high. (AAP Image/David Rowland)

Player stats

The Panthers have only one player who averages over thirty tackles. Fisher-Harris is supported by five others who average 20+ tackles a game.

The Warriors have two defenders who average in the 30s for tackling who are supported by another five 20+ tacklers. So it is pretty even.

Let’s look at Jimmy Maloney’s missed tackles: 6.1 a game. Worst I’ve ever seen.

Now ignore them. His job isn’t to tackle. They run at him to wear him out. He doesn’t fall for it. His minders do his tackling.

Very few of those misses lead to line breaks or tries. Same with Shaun Johnson. The best looking bloke in the NRL often gets accused of playing in a dinner suit, but you don’t take a Ferrari off road people. That’s just stupid.

Isaac Luke will concede penalties but they are mostly strategic these days. So are Jimmy Maloney’s.

James Maloney of the Panthers. (AAP Image/Michael Chambers)

That error stat for Maloney is quite concerning. He needs to get that under control.

Attack

Team Stats – average per game 2017

Not really a struck match between the sides in regards to their attack. The Warriors are the leading offloading side in the NRL and the Panthers get awarded the second most penalties.

The Panthers bust more tackles too. However, there are no stand out deficiencies here to speak of.

Player stats

Roger Tuivasa-Sheck is such a talent and his stats across the board show that. He breaks tackles and the line, makes lots of metres and sets up tries and line breaks.

However, he has only scored three tries in his 22 appearances. If the Warriors are to progress he needs to add to that ASAP. At present – with the very notable exception of David Fusitua – neither side really has a really reliable selection of try scorers.

How important has Viliame Kikau been for the Panthers this season! Tackle breaks, Line breaks, big metres and he even assists tries.

As you’d expect though, the side whose halves do the best will almost certainly win this match and the Maloney/Cleary combination vs the Johnson/Green combination is a mouth-watering prospect indeed.

The danger men

James Maloney
He has so much finals and big game experience. He has been there and done that. If he fires in this match the Panthers will almost certainly win.

Josh Mansour
‘The Sauce’ is one of my favourite wingers. He returns the ball with real intent. As a result he makes things happen. He makes big metres and, considering how many games he missed this season with a broken face, his eight tries are very good stats.

Nathan Cleary
He’s been a bit quieter in 2018 but you know that the talent and determination is there waiting to explode. His Origin experience will have prepared him well for this stage. This could be his moment to really shine.

Nathan Cleary of the Panthers celebrates. (Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)

Shaun Johnson
The hardest thing that Johnson has to deal with is that we all know just how brilliant he can be.

There is this expectation that he should be able to perform brilliantly, regardless of how the rest of his team mates are going, and get his team over the line.

Sometimes that just isn’t possible. However, he has laid on 17 try assists this year in the 18 games he has played. If he goes off in this game he’ll be hard to stop.

Roger Tuivasa-Sheck
See above effusive praise for the Warriors fullback. He is the key to the Warriors’ chances.

David Fusitua
Scoring 22 tries in a season means that you are a superb finisher, especially when your team is only ranked 10th for points scored. He’ll be causing headaches for young Panther Christian Crichton.

The Panthers’ overall record
This will be the Panthers’ 1325th match in this competition and its predecessors. They’ve won 597 of them (45 per cent). In the NRL era they have won 252 of their 523 games (48.2 per cent).

The Warriors overall record
This will be the Warriors 589th game since they entered the competition in 1995. They’ve won 277 of them (47.1 per cent). In the NRL era they’ve won 247 of their 525 matches (47.4 per cent).

Tyrone May of the Panthers (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

The history

Overall
The Panthers are the team that the Warriors have played the third most frequently since entering the completion. However, the Panthers are the team that has easily scored the most points against the Auckland-based club.

This will be the 42nd meeting of these two sides and the Panthers have won 23, the Warriors 17, with one draw.

Of the 18 games that have been played between the sides in Sydney, the Panthers have won 12 and the Warriors 6.

The last ten
The last time the Warriors beat the Panthers in Sydney was on June 11th 2012.

The Panthers have won seven of the last ten encounters between the sides. However, the Warriors won the last clash 36-16 in round 24.

At this venue
These two sides have met once before at this venue. It was the 2003 preliminary final. The Panthers won 28-20 and went on to win the Premiership the next week.

Finals
That game is also the only time that these two sides have met in a finals match. There is only one player still active who was in that game: current Sharks man Luke Lewis.

Form
The Panthers have won four of their last eight games, winning their last two home games.

The Warriors have won five of their last eight games. That includes away wins over the Dragons and the Broncos.

Referees: Matt Cecchin, Henry Perenara

Head to head
Matt Cecchin has only officiated one game between these teams. The Round 10 game in 2016 was played in Christchurch and was won by the Panthers 30 points to 18.

Similarly, Henry Perenara has only officiated one Panthers Warriors game. It was back in 2013 at Panther Park and the Panthers thrashed the Warriors 62-6.

Individual team records
Cecchin has controlled 36 Warriors games, with the Kiwi side winning 19 of them (52.8 per cent). They’ve won three of four under him this season.

Cecchin has controlled 32 Panthers games. The Penrith side has won just 14 of those (43.75 per cent).

Perenara has controlled 24 Panthers matches. Penrith have won 12 of those (50 per cent).

However, the Panthers have won the last seven games straight of theirs that Perenara has controlled.

The Warriors have won 13 of the 22 games of theirs that Perenara has controlled. They’ve won all three games that he has controlled of theirs this season.

Shaun Johnson of the Warriors (AAP Image/SNPA, Martin Hunter)

Finals
Cecchin has never officiated a Penrith finals game but he has done two Warriors finals: the 2011 preliminary and grand finals, with the Warriors getting one win and one loss.

Perenara has never officiated a Warriors finals match before but he did officiated the Panthers 19-18 qualifying final win over the Roosters in 2014.

Statistically predicted score: 22-18 Panthers

Who is going to win and why

Here’s the thing, I don’t think either of these sides will go beyond week two of the finals.

The Panthers have played nine games against the other sides that made the finals, they have only won four of them. Only one of those was against a side that finished in the top four, and that was against a severely depleted Storm side in the final round. It papered over cracks. So 11 of their 15 wins were against sides that won’t play finals.

The Warriors had 13 games against the other 2018 finalists and while they only won six of those, two of those wins were against sides that finished in the top four. That is slightly better than the Panthers record.

The Panthers have played a lot of get out of jail free cards this season and they just haven’t been convincing. But neither have the Warriors I guess…

I just think the Warriors form coming into the finals is slightly more convincing.
I’m going to pick the Warriors in a tight one.

Prediction: Warriors 1-12