What started 2018 as the trade period’s biggest question has become a foregone and almost forgotten conclusion but today, after much ado, Tom J Lynch will become a Tiger.
The free agency window officially opens at 9am today and given how long in advance we’ve know this deal was coming it wouldn’t surprise if Richmond have a press conference scheduled for 9:01.
On Tuesday Gold Coast removed all doubt by posting a statement on their website informing fans that Lynch intended to join Richmond, perhaps hoping to take some of the wind out of the Tigers’ sails.
Certainly Richmond’s signing of Lynch will be a little less triumphant than it might have, but one would imagine that has more to do with their having fallen short at the penultimate hurdle in 2018 than anything else.
Some would argue it’s good news for the competitionn – more accurately, it’s less of a PR disaster for city hall. HQ avoid having to smile and nod as back-to-back premiers recruit the year’s most talked about free agent; but it’s not like this is a victory for equalisation either.
That is, however, a topic for another day. Today instead let’s talk about the Richmond Tigers, and what this signing is going to do for them.
In July I wrote about Richmond’s radical rise from one of our most beloved punchlines to perhaps the league’s next glamour club, theorising that back-to-back flags combined with signing Lynch could put them into the bracket of Hawthorn, Sydney and Geelong.
Indeed for a significant chunk of the year it was a common view among pundits including myself that the yellow-and-black juggernaut would be impossible to stop – but we love revising history, and Richmond’s preliminary final loss has seen public opinion quickly change.
Why did the Tigers fail? The answer is well summed up by this highly prescient tweet from HPN Footy’s Arwon, sent roughly five hours before the preliminary final against Collingwood.
Richmond’s innovative small forward line, intense focus on team defence and in particular forward pressure, along with their willingness to give up the contest with confidence they would get the ball back from opposition mistakes, was a brilliant tactical combination that won them one flag and nearly held out for two.
But, although they were still winning, we saw their form decline in the final month of the home-and-away season as teams started to figure them out. The Tigers were in a race against time to go back-to-back before an opposition side put it all together – and they lost.
Does that mean the Richmond dynasty is over before it even began? Hardly.
(Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)
What’s been often overlooked when Richmond’s ‘smallball’ forwardline comes up for discussion is that it was by no means a calculated tactical masterplan but instead a snappy ad-hoc move that unlocked brilliance – necessity proving once again to be the mother of all invention.
The Tigers repeatedly tried throughout 2017 to force square pegs into round holes looking to fill that second tall forward role alongside Jack Riewoldt, to the point where Todd Elton (yes, Todd Elton) and Ivan Soldo played a combined 13 games trying to make things work.
It wasn’t until Round 22 – just two weeks out from the finals series – that Damien Hardwick finally bit the bullet and decided playing Riewoldt as a lone tall option surrounded by a clutch of ankle-biters was the way to go – and the rest is history.
If you believe the talk then even then the Tigers knew it was only going to be a temporary thing. According to some reports Richmond were already waist-deep in the race for Lynch’s services by this point in time, and confident of landing him.
Maybe that’s true and maybe it isn’t. What we do know for certain now is that Lynch will be at Richmond in 2019, and that gives the Tigers the opportunity for tactical evolution.
It’s not just the fact that Richmond are gaining an elite talent, which no one disputes Lynch is. It’s the domino effect he has on every member of their forward line.
Simply, the addition of Lynch gives Richmond two big targets to aim for when they go forward. It’s going to make them less predictable, and it’s going to make it hard for opposition defences to double or triple-team one of them without leaving the other wide open.
That means Riewoldt and Lynch are both in the frame to have an easier time of it (even if they occasionally steal each other’s goals), but also that they’ll be more likely to bring the ball to ground, where it can be pounced on by the Tigers’ mosquito fleet of Daniel Rioli, Jack Higgins, Dan Butler and Jason Castagna.
In that sense signing Lynch is a much bigger fillip for the Tigers than it would have been for them to pick up say Andrew Gaff or Dylan Shiel. While those players would add more muscle to their existing system, Lynch gives them the point of difference they need to devise a new one.
In short it means Richmond don’t have to rely so much on a tactical ‘gimmick’ any more. They can instead build dominance on the back of having arguably the best forward line in the league, something opposition teams will find it much harder to unravel.
(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
That’s the benefit: what are the costs?
Well, for one thing we don’t know for certain yet whether Gold Coast will decide to match the bid that Richmond put in for Lynch.
All signs point towards them not doing so – even Gillon McLachlan has said the Suns are going to get pick 3 in compensation.
The Suns could hypothetically match the bid – they certainly have the cap space to do so – and the Tigers would have to cough up at least one, probably two first-round draft picks.
I think neutral fans would widely agree it would be a much better outcome for the competition as a whole that things played out that way – but it’s not happening.
Instead Richmond will land the year’s most speculated-on free agent without having to give up trade currency of any kind.
Where it will hit them hard, rather, is their salary cap, and that means they’re going to lose depth.
Richmond already have Dustin Martin chewing up $1.2 million per year and adding Lynch on what’s believed to be a seven-year, $7 million deal means they’ll have one-sixth of their entire salary cap invested in just two players.
As things stand now we believe Richmond are going to lose Reece Conca to Fremantle, Sam Lloyd to the Western Bulldogs, Tyson Stengle to Adelaide, and all of Anthony Miles, Corey Ellis and perhaps also Jacob Townsend to the Gold Coast Suns – and they’ll receive effectively the contents of a Bertie Beetle Royal Easter Showbag in return.
None of them individually is any great loss but combined the Tigers lose arguably the group of players they were most likely to turn to in the case of an injury crisis.
Richmond of course have been famed for their ability to keep their side on the park over the past two seasons, and fairly so. Has it been elite performance or just bloody good luck? I suspect even the Tigers’ medical team would be willing to admit it is at the very least a mix of both.
Adelaide for example had a golden injury run in 2016-17 and then seemed to get hit by a karma backlog this year. If the Tigers go through a similar twist of bad fortune in 2019, they may find themselves fielding players less ready for the step up to senior level than they’d like.
(AAP / Julian Smith)
Or hey – maybe not. Probably not, even. More likely I’m just clutching at straws, searching for a negative in the rich getting richer.
Yes, Richmond’s 2018 ended poorly – but they’ll end the season with a sweet taste in their mouths after the arrival of Lynch as they look to their 2019 prospects will remember the words of the great man Meatloaf: two out of three ain’t bad.
The Tigers are at a critical juncture. Their 2017 gameplan was already getting to be old hat as this season drew to a close, and there’s no way it’ll stand up in 2019.
Richmond put a well-below-average 25 per cent of games into players 23-and-under this year and earned only 14 AFLCA votes from that group – the least of any team in the league, bar none. It’s a long way from smoking engine, but the dashboard warning light is blinking.
But the arrival of Lynch at the club gives them the personnel with which to undergo a tactical evolution, and if doing so can take them back to the premiership podium while the awesome foursome are still at their peak, then the dream of joining the ranks of the AFL’s glamour clubs is still very much alive.
Michael44
Guest
That may be the case Doctor, but that is not what you said. You said '...in 2018". The Tiges did way better than average in attack in 2018. If you meant in finals, then all you had to do was say so and I would have naturally agreed with you.
Doctor Rotcod
Roar Rookie
And in the finals they averaged 10.5 West Coast 13.9 Collingwood 11.8 Melbourne 11
Michael44
Guest
Yeah, what happened to my paragraph space too??? Yes,I'm glad the Tiges have secured Tom Lynch Observer. The MCG forward area is a large piece of territory for just one key forward to have to cover, even though Jack has done it so well doing it recently.
Michael44
Guest
Richmond were 2nd highest in average goals-per-game for all games played in 2018 - 13.8 Melbourne were No. 1 with an ave of 14.8 goals-per-game for all games played. source - afl.com.au
Observer
Guest
Yikes, where did my paragraph spaces go........?
Observer
Guest
If Lynch can avoid long term injury and can keep running hard for 4 quarters then XXX$$$ is worth it as another 195cm+tall marking player on the Tigers forward line is going to pose problems for opposition defenses. I don't see it as a matter of getting X number of goals or wins or finals per dollar - it's about snagging a top shelf key tall marking player who can compliment the team and perhaps allow Richmond to develop more than just the one game plan. As a Tiger's member/fan even I admit the days of Jack and the Mosquitos inside the 50 is now history. Having a 199cm marking player like Lynch on hand is going to allow Jack to play more spells further down the ground, much like Richo did towards the end of his career, Jack plays every bit as good up the ground as he does inside 50. Having a 2nd tall marking target should also allow the Tigers to get better service from both Caddy and Martin when these two play in the middle and inside 50. Often in 2018 Dusty was moved to deep inside 50 and took the attention of the opposition's best defender. I think having a second agile tall marking goal kicker aside from Jack can only spread the opposition defence that little bit thinner to allow the likes of Caddy and Dusty to score more freely when they take stints inside 50. Cotch is also showing signs of aging or at least was wearing by the end of the last season - he too might be able to rotate more freely inside 50 in the future. In addition Lynch can hopefully mature and be coached into taking on 2nd string ruck duties. In the past this is something the Tigers have got by with Grigg's valiant 'make do' efforts but clearances is one of the Tiger's weakest aspects, Nankervis needed better back up this past season and clearly Ivan Soldo is yet to convince the selectors that he is ready to step up to AFL level. I hope to see Tom Lynch taking on some of the round the ground ruck duties in the future. Spending mega bucks to keep Dusty at Richmond was just one play to keep the core of a competitive team together. Paying mega bucks for Tom Lynch is also just another play in a medium to long term strategy to keep a core of key position players at Richmond. It's not the be all and end all, just another part of the puzzle hopefully solved. I have no doubt that Ben Griffiths, if he had stayed fit and playing would have played out 2018 as the Tiger's second tall in the forward line and also as back up ruckman. However, he fell to injury and eventually moved away from the game so for 2018 the Tigers just used the list they had to field a team - now we have Tom Lynch - may it work out a treat!
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Wow, that would be one big story. Lynch joining the Tigers and they miss the 8. Can’t see it myself. Top 4 I’d say but just one of 4 or 5 with a chance. Not unbackable anymore.
Raimond
Roar Guru
Everything has to go right to be a contender these days. Richmond got every ounce out of their third-tier players during the 2017 Finals, but when those players dropped off during the PF, they turned into a rabble. If their luck holds, they can make the Top 4; if not, then they might struggle to make the 8.
Doctor Rotcod
Roar Rookie
The way you put it,Jack gets his 60+,Lynch his 50+,Caddy 40+,Martin, Castagna, Higgins and Rioli are all good for 30+ per season. Wow! Richmond will only have to turn up and the goals will rain down. 20 goals a game should be the minimum. No defence will withstand them...haha ha They will contend,no doubt, but it won't be on the back of Tom Lynch Globetrotters,nah,more Generals in my way of thinking. They were only fourth in goalkicking in 2018,better than average , but,hey,premiers in 2017 should do well.
The Brazilian
Roar Rookie
You can't compare anyone to Freo . . . they're a basket case due to their coach and recruiting team.
Micko
Guest
Bit harsh on the Bertie Beetle show bags - Cult Status
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
Jack was selfishishly goal hungry...about 3 seasons ago. He is goal hungry for the team now. Works well with everybody. Goal hungry isn't Lynch's thing. He brings the players around him into the game. They'll work well together and will only struggle with gun defenders like Pearce and Hamling.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
Compare them with Freo, Collingwood or GWS. It cost Freo a threepeat.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
Not all at once. Only one or two at a time. You are exaggerating how injury impacted them.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
Martin was just off the pace. Hardwick is adamant he wasnt injured. Just didn't step up when it mattered. $1.2 m? Hmmm!
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
Rance has always been a bit loose.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
I used to love Bertie Beetles!
Samuel Ord
Roar Guru
Richmond's luck with injury is greatly exaggerated. Daniel Rioli and Dion Prestia for half a season. Jack Graham and his shoulder. Reece Conca and his foot. Bachar Houli for 25 percent of the season. Dan Butler and his ankle. That's just regular season business. Heading into the preliminary final Richmond chose to play Dustin Martin who was clearly well, well below par. He couldn't even fly for contested marks in the opening minutes. Add to that Kane Lambert who was playing minutes after surgery on his ankle and was clearly no good. Exact same story with Reece Conca who was a shadow of his first half of the season self. David Astbury entered the match after enduring gastro during the week and not training. Jack Graham really struggled post-surgery too. Key pressure player on the ground and it was obvious he had no faith in his shoulder and couldn't tackle. I'm not going to excuse the selections of these players - all mistakes - but this narrative that Richmond had a dream run with injuries in both 2017 and 2018 is incorrect. It was nothing like that of Adelaide or Collingwood but it wasn't ideal either.
Samuel Ord
Roar Guru
Great article Josh. Richmond's forward line will be reaching Globe Trotter levels of talent in 2019 but it means next to nothing if they don't have the game plan to match it. Jack Reiwoldt is now a triple Coleman Medallist. Tom Lynch has shown plenty in his time at the Gold Coast and he's had to do it with next to no one out on the park with him. When the Suns came close to success in...2014 (I'm pretty sure ) Ablett nearly won the Brownlow with two thirds of a season and Lynch was kicking bags regularly. Add Josh Caddy who is now a certified 40-goal a year player and Dustin Martin - a one-on-one player who doesn't need any introduction. That's four players a minimum who can tear a game apart, and then you can feel free to talk about Daniel Rioli, Jason Castagna, Jack Higgins, Shane Edwards and Dan Butler and everything these mostly premiership players bring to the park. They won't all play at once of course, but it's depth depth depth. But of course it means nothing if they don't all play together.
Doctor Rotcod
Roar Rookie
It's always been the way,play the best teams in their style but better,by recruiting well,getting selfless taggers and investing in strength and conditioning - not trendy altitude in the off-season or hyperbaric tents. And playing out of your skin. Or change things.Simpson and his close- down zonal style,his idea,by the way,not Clarkson's. Two big forwards,hmm, worked well for the Eagles. But are Riewoldt and Lynch direct matches for Kennedy and Darling? Are the small forward crumbers for Richmond as good as Ryan,LeCras,Cripps,Rioli,Shuey and Yeo,(when forward) and Venables? Takes more than a parachutist to overcome a village. It's taken the Eagles four or five years to get their big men to work seamlessly together,to feed the smaller forwards. Will either Riewoldt or Lynch lead up as far up the ground as Kennedy and Darling? 2019 awaits