Australia don’t lose rugby league Tests often – but when they do, it’s usually when there has been a sudden loss of talent or an oversupply, with too many good players being squeezed into the side to please too many people.
Since the 1970s, the dip has only ever been temporary.
But – in the lead-up to Saturday’s momentous Australia-Tonga international – looking at International Rugby League’s New World Order, in which the Australasian competition produces players for a host of countries, is it possible for the balance of power to change permanently?
Maybe.
There have been several occasions since the Kiwis ended 28 unbeaten Australian years in series with a 24-0 win at Elland Road in 2005 that the green-and-golds have regenerated under the assumption that, all things being equal, they should win.
Penrith and Brisbane combined have more players than all of Britain; the law of averages suggests Australia should be able to field a winning team indefinitely.
So when there is a shock loss, Wayne Bennett or Ricky Stuart to Tim Sheens get the bullet or fall on their sword (to use a violent mixed metaphor) and normal service should be resumed.
Brandon Smith of the Kiwis celebrates after scoring a try against the Australia Kangaroos. (Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)
It worked the same way for NSW between 1908 and 1980 – more players than Queensland and, thanks to poker machines, enough money to coax the Maroons best across the border anyway. Queensland inflicted the odd upset but that was it.
Origin was a counter to economic migration in order to make a sporting contest more even. What Andrew Fifita and Andrew Taumalolo did last year was the same.
Australia and New Zealand tempted them, and/or their families and/or ancestors, through the economic incentive of “a better life”, the same way St George tempted Rod Reddy and Eastern Suburbs enticed Kerry Boustead to cross the border.
Rugby league, the Robin Hood of sports, has in all four cases taken from the rich and given to the poor because it is, really, the sport of the poor. It was born as a social movement rather than a different ‘code’ and looked pretty much the same as rugby union for its first dozen years.
It’s amazing how, even in this changing world where the game needs to reach a wider demographic, it still organically drifts towards empowering the disempowered. There’s a thesis in it.
Anyway …
Queensland’s emergence in the Origin era wasn’t temporary, right? It was a permanent shift in power. When Brisbane joined the NSW Rugby League, the days of picking players straight from the Brisbane Rugby League or the Toowoomba comp were over.
All the Origin players came from the same comp and I’m old enough to remember people saying this would kill Origin, the same way video was supposed to close cinemas permanently.
The percentage of Polynesians in the NRL is a pet stat of many people – I don’t know which one to quote. But it’s a lot more than third.
So there is real chance for the balance of power to change semi-permanently. Ryan Sutton and John Bateman played their last game for Wigan in the grand final on Saturday night – they’re also heading to the NRL.
That same process is now taking place in international football.
The balance of power can almost certainly be meaningfully altered if these countries are given more games and equal pay and the Origin formula is copied, deliberately or by coincidence.
Josh McGuire and James Tedesco have every right to pick Australia, the country they objectively have more connection to.
James Tedesco celebrates during State of Origin. (AAP Image/Dave Hunt)
But what if it became the norm for them to pick Samoa and Italy instead?
There was a great graphic done last week by radio Triple M. In the last 12 months, Australia defeated England who beat Tonga who put paid to New Zealand who downed Australia.
Now we just need a few more nations in the circle. Rugby league has been weak internationally because it’s not the sport of multinational businesses and diplomats.
It’s almost always broke and needs the money generated by suburb vs suburbs, pit town vs pit town.
But the NRL’s money and a kind of de facto draft system which allows players to chose a lower-ranked country if they miss selection for the top three may be about to change that.
Col in paradise
Guest
Should be more why the hell was Cherry Evans, Hunt and Woods selected, all out of form for months...selectors are clowns...Kiwis played great and deserved to win...refs just restricted the gap of the scores....
Magic Mike
Roar Rookie
Big dady just died!
Divided Loyalties
Roar Rookie
Absolutely... 3 NZ tries disallowed by the bunker... "Chasing at shadows" as Gould eloquently said.. looking for reasons to save the kangaroos from a hammering!
Divided Loyalties
Roar Rookie
No it would of diluted the wallabies and UK sides.... The Polynesians playing for NZ are mostly NZ born raised and schooled ... unlike those playing for Aus Ireland France etc
Jacko
Guest
cedric the first issue is that the Island country's have no money...They rely pretty much on previous generations going to NZ and more recently Aus and funding money back into the country. I cant speak for league but in Union most Island rugby players are born, educated and play all their rugby in NZ and this has been the way it is for many years now. If you research the teams with the most foriegn born players in World rugby you will find that NZ supplies far more players to the islands than the Islands will ever supply to NZ...and now with Aus also being a destination for work and futures their is a number of Aus born and raised going back to represent their heritage. In league many of the guys representing the islands are also born and bred in either NZ or Aus but they do identify with their heritage and when not selected for Aus (QLD, NSW) or NZ they have gone for other options available to them. I do believe NZ has an opportunity to play matches in Auckland or even Western Sydney to increase profits and to give these nations some cash flow and i believe NZRL has been very lax in doing so...Time they did....But then again, its only since the Taumalolo's and Fifita's have gone back to Tonga as their first choice that this has become a viable thing so lets see what happens from now
Justin Kearney
Roar Rookie
He’s been complaining about the ref since Saturday night. Fishing for bites methinks. Klein did a good job.
Justin Kearney
Roar Rookie
You need to stop complaining about the referee. He did a great job.
Jacko
Guest
Geez bernie did NZ get a ref assist in the first half?...Aus got 3 including a NZ try being disalowed incorrectly...thats actual points.....Your Aus refs never help NZ and the Aus bunker is as biased as Phill Gould....Actually Phill thought it was definately a try so more biased than Phill. You are the one who needs to widen youre interests...perhaps start with what a knock-on is and then go to what grass looks like as Manu did not knock on and Smith's grounding touched the grass
Bernie Vinson
Roar Rookie
You need a wider set of interests to get some perspective.
Big Daddy
Guest
One of the evolvements of the game has been back when the Sydney comp had 12 teams which also had second or reserve grade and President s cup/ 3rd grade and there was no Polynesians and very little players from Qld . So basically we has 36 teams so in some respects the game has gone a little bit backwards in Sydney. The game has grown in some respects but in Sydney we have minimalised the comp and their are calls for some teams to be relocated. Crowds were definitely bigger in Sydney and we had a very healthy international comp with great Britain touring on a regular basis.
Sammy
Guest
That's the point - Australians still want Australia to win and stay number 1, but win against good quality opposition. I don't support the fanatical view of artificially weakening Australia in order to strengthen the others. I want Australia to win and I think we have enough depth to let the heritage players go and play for their heritage nations.
Justin Kearney
Roar Rookie
NZ won fair and square despite your continued rant about the ref.
Bernie Vinson
Roar Rookie
The Pacific Islands RU team didn't work very well because of the timing and the fact that these islands are tremendous rivals which transcends sport. Remember when the ANZAC team played with one All Black (Dowd?) against the British Lions? - the combined team thing didn't work. The British Lions work because some of the individual countries are too weak to beat NZ and SA so this gave them a chance and they part of the same democracy UK. The Kiwis have one close win at home with a significant assistance in the first half and Tonga rely on heritage players. To show how brittle it is, Imagine the All Blacks play Australia in Rugby in Sydney and then the following week play Australian/NZ residents team of Fiji descent the next week and the second game is more important and draws a bigger crowd. This is the local equivalent of what is happening in NZ this week. BTW Steve how many adult RL players are there in UK? You once estimated 20K. I do however really enjoy your articles which are based in realism or not fantasy as some dreamers here.
Sleiman Azizi
Roar Guru
A changing of the guard really means an evening up of the playing field. It's easy for Australia to be number one and all conquerable when they are playing amateurs (or even professionals) who rarely get a chance to play with each other as a team. Australia may still win more often than not with a level playing field, but it will then have been properly earned and, dare I say, more interesting and appealing for fans, players, sponsors and broadcasters.
Cedric
Guest
they, rugby, did do it with the Pacific Team about 8 years ago. Think they played one game in NZ and one in Oz. It was a huge success and then nothing more of it. Maybe a kiwi rugby person might know why it wasn't ongoing, maybe it would have diluted the All Blacks?
Paul
Roar Guru
As it stands internationally, this piece is really a "so what" article. Right now there are no plans for any Nations to play each other on a regular basis, apart from the obligatory Australia/NZ yearly clash and the next WC is years away. Of course the balance of power might change if NRL players committed to nations of heir heritage, but would they do that if they're not going to play for their country of choice more than once every 4 years? The RLIF has a chance to get on board with the public support for sides like Tonga& Fiji as well as teams like Lebanon and Italy. In other words, get some regular internationals happening between second tier nations, make sure NRL players are released to play and maybe there might be a changing of the guard.
Nat
Roar Guru
Good piece Steve and your first paragraph is telling. With the abundance of talent, some of the positional selections were interesting to say the least. However, the 2nd comparison is ominous, whereby Aust always believe we have the talent and expect to win, ala NSW, yet passion gets over raw ability!
Steve
Guest
Interesting, but if there was money to be made from it don't you think rugby union would have already done it. We all know that World Rugby can't wait for the day the Pacific Islands don't qualify for a World Cup.
Cedric
Guest
agree and just read a piece on the NRL sight about thoughts on a possible Kiwis, Tonga and Samoa setup during origin. Well I've been saying this for years on this site as I live in Auckland and have a bit of a handle on local demographics. But what gets me is that this cash cow is sitting there and the NZRL are sitting on their hands. It would be a great annual event and team building/pay day for the island nations, maybe even including Fiji and PNG.