Over the past three seasons GWS have traded away Cam McCarthy, Jack Steele, Paul Ahern, Pat Mckenna, James Stewart, Will Hoskin-Elliot, Rhys Palmer, Matt Kennedy, Caleb Marchbank, Jarrod Pickett, Devon Smith, Nathan Wilson, Rory Lobb, Tom Scully, Dylan Sheil and Will Setterfield.
Using the AFL draft value index, we can work out the implied value of these 16 players at the time of their recruitment and compare it to their trade value received on exit.
This quantifies the value added or lost by the club through their recruitment, development and subsequent trading.
Including the value of the draft picks bundled into player trades, since 2016 the Giants have turned 27,871 points* into 10,428 points.
This equates to taking 16 pick 5s in the draft, developing them for multiple years and then trading them for 16 pick 23’s (or seven pick 5s).
By comparison, during this same period the Adelaide Crows; a club often maligned for not retaining key players; lost four players – Lyon, Lever, Cameron and McGovern – who they recruited for a draft value of 1703 points, receiving 5966 points* back in exchange when traded.
In draft terms, they’ve turned one pick 6 into three pick 5s. GWS by comparison have turned 16 into 7.
Most media focus only on retention, ignoring the value exchange that takes place between point of recruitment and exit.
If managed well, even unwanted player turnover can add value – as demonstrated by the Crows – but managed badly, it’s a road to ruin.
So far, the Giants’ stockpile of first-round draft riches gifted at inception has largely obscured their downward trajectory.
But as the wise head knows, you should be far more concerned with your current trajectory than with your current results.
Ironically, the absence of a GWS fan base has helped the optics off their continued player attrition.
The same list management at an establishment club would inevitably lead to attacks from within, with members calling for heads and a spiralling negative news cycle.
The lack of a passionate response from GWS supporters over the fire sale of an inaugural club signing like Tom Scully shows what a vacuum exists there – with neutral supporters demonstrably more irate and vocal than anyone from Western Sydney.
(Photo: Adam Trafford/Getty Images)
When the two things going for you are the remnants of a one-off plethora of first round draft picks, gifted by your creator, and the absence of a fan base that cares enough to keep you accountable, you’re headed for trouble.
Going forward, now there is a relatively level draft playing field, the Giants simply cannot afford to keep burning high end picks.
This is not conjecture, it’s factual – no club can remain competitive if they continually draft top 10 picks only to trade them for second round picks several years into their development. The successful clubs do the very opposite.
Blaming their problems on the removal of COLA is to miss the point, as well as twist the facts.
The 9.8 per cent cost of living allowance, if still in effect, would give GWS an additional $1.25 million salary cap space in 2019.
Yet GWS chief executive Dave Matthews claims, “It [COLA… was completely removed last year. That’s $3 million of purchasing power that goes.”
GWS obviously need a calculator, as clearly poor maths has contributed to their salary cap woes. And even if the player attrition is salary cap driven, it’s still attrition, with value erosion rather than value adding along the way.
Given the age profile of the squad, it’s unlikely the cap issue will go away, so the cycle is set to continue.
Those that deny a player retention and development problem exists, or externalise the cause, show a failure of awareness.
Blindly supporting the Giants is not the way to help them break the cycle – they need change. Under the status quo, 2016 and 2017 will prove their high watermark.
*Underage players Dylan Shiel and Nathan Wilson draft value assumed as equivalent to draft pick 10.
*McAdam draft value assumed as equivalent to draft pick 30.
clipper
Roar Rookie
Don't think there have ever been many juniors playing league in eastern Sydney, Bernie.
IAP
Guest
I've never been banned from any website, including this one. I don't know why people are attacking me for saying that GWS and GC don't have supporters; they don't. It's a statement of fact. Being angry at me for saying the truth doesn't change said truth.
Randy
Roar Rookie
You really don't like the Storm do you... A lot of league followers hate the Storm. They cheated the cap, they were backed by News Ltd, however they have never been given salary cap exemptions such as a COLA like the sydney AFL teams were given.
HuzzBuzz
Roar Rookie
Thanks Scragger. The unusual thing with GWS during this period is every player exited was traded for draft picks, not players. This made it easier to quantify their value, using the draft index. That is what makes this an objective measure and proof of value erosion, irrespective of the mitigating circumstances others cite. If other clubs have trade players for players, assigning likely draft value for the incoming players will be subjective - hope someone has a crack at it though!
Aligee
Roar Rookie
IMO the team is less about TV than creating a market where a couple of million people live, one of the biggest available markets to plonk a team.
Aligee
Roar Rookie
Real club JRL stats are hard to get, they get wrapped up in touch footy and school stats etc. I would be interested in getting the JRU stats for Sydney, i also reckon they have gone backwards, very strong in a select few schools, but likely in a southward heading direction if viewed over 10 or so years. What tends to happen is junior club rugby loses big time when boys going to these elite schools stop playing club and only play for school around 12/13 years of age, if the club loses its best or struggles for numbers these teams just fall over.
Bernie Vinson
Roar Rookie
Yet Storm won in second year after a fix by the NRL and no-one complains - go figure...
Bernie Vinson
Roar Rookie
This is while junior RL is going backwards in the east of Sydney - not sure in the west but adult RL has dropped off a cliff.
Bernie Vinson
Roar Rookie
Its a plastic team because they were created from nothing like all clubs or plastic because they were created for TV - like the Storm
Scragger
Guest
Great arrticle HuzzBuzz. I would love to see you extend this to include all clubs, especially the Bulldogs (my club, and I suspect they've done really well there). Fascinating stuff.
Aligee
Roar Rookie
Neither am i TBH, i do understand the AFL taking part of NSW away from GWS as it makes them concentrate on less traditional football areas, but besides that Vic clubs should be happy less Vic boys are drafted North, the more academy boys drafted in their own state the more Vic clubs keep Vic boys. We have also seen a huge resurgence in Riverina boys drafted who were not able to play in the Vic TAC cup, although just as good as any Vic boy as far as footy talent they were not as exposed to the coaching and training and visibility to scouts like the TAC boys. Surely a win/win.
Mister Football
Roar Guru
Aligee really good points, that's the sort of broader stuff that the AFL will be looking at. Suns' figures may not be as good, but figures for both juniors and female participation are pretty good there as well (in fact, the Suns will be represented in the AFLW when it goes to 14 teams in 2020). Also the Northern academies have been a resounding success, I'm not sure why so many footy fans from the southern states are so critical about them.
Aligee
Roar Rookie
Cant add on comments now ---- but the growth in girls football should you would think contribute to the overall growth of the club, both mens and womens side, it sure cant hurt.
Aligee
Roar Rookie
Some fair points, however in 2012 there was no under 11's, you went straight from under 10's to under 12's which skews your numbers to an extent. 22 under 11 teams in 2018, you can see from how the comp is structured at younger age levels what will happen in the future, there will be seperate south ( campbelltown) and West and inner NW comps to alleviate travel, it will end up a very big comp.
HuzzBuzz
Roar Rookie
The growth in home grown talent is encouraging. Notably, Sydney Swans advocated for many years for a NSW academy, so this was overdue and we didn't need a second NSW club for that to happen - but agree, it is something that is working for GWS. Re. growth in junior teams in Westerns Sydney, this is overstated due to 33 new girls teams (which is still great, but doesn't feed into GWS men's talent) and the inclusion of 22 teams from two established clubs rezoned from the Sydney Harbour region - so doesn't count toward net growth in player teams. The like for like increases in youth teams in Western Sydney (U12 - U17) between 2012 and 2018 is actually just 6 teams (from 43 to 49).
Wise Old Elf
Guest
Didn't realise the Giants won the flag recently. The way people are talking is like they were winning flags. Also, the way both Giants and Suns were built was so they would trade in time and things even out in time. How many years did it take for the Hawks, Kangas and Saints to win their first flags after joining the league. AFL flags are not easily won. End of the day, gifting the northern state clubs with great players was always akin to feeding caviar to pigs.
Aligee
Roar Rookie
http://www.gwsgiants.com.au/news/2018-10-18/a-message-from-david-matthews A Message from David Matthews
Aligee
Roar Rookie
GWS has a hard road to hoe, both the club, the players, supporters etc. But IMO there are some positives that GWS has bought the game, indeed grown the game. ACT/NSW players on the GWS list - Phil Davis, Jacob Hopper, Isaac Cumming, Will Setterfield, Tim Taranto, Himmelburg, Zac Williams, Flynn, Lachlan Tiziani, Jeremy Finlayson, Nick Shipley , Harry Perryman - There may be some others i have missed out on, Shipley is the first local ( penrith) WS draftee from the academy. Out of the 6 rookies, 4 from NSW including Daniel Lloyd who played regularly in the ones. Record number of club players in Canberra and according to newspaper reports the strongest since the mid 1980's and junior footy in the southern part of the state ( riverina) has also picked up although traditionally strong anyway A very encouraging junior club scene in WS itself which coves about half of Sydney- the Swans zone has the other half, in 2012 there were just 67 junior teams playing footy in WS from under 9's to under 17's, in 2018 there were 180 junior teams. And of course the normal stats bandied around like increase in membership and home crowd averages for GWS over the last few years. Doesn't seem to have impacted the Swans one bit and for a club in about as anti- aussie rules territory as you can get is IMO doing pretty well. IMO they will succeed and do quite nicely, i have already thought ahead to the 3 Sydney AFL club and its location. :)
Mister Football
Roar Guru
That is low, so I thought I'd just double check their last two home and away games, and this is what I found: Rd 23, Melbourne vs GWS, FTA Sydney 26k (Fox national 203k) Rd 22, couldn't find FTA figures, but Fox national figure was 265k, which is a very good figure I didn't go through the finals ratings figures because I already knew they were excellent ratings, so I thought that would be a bit unfair.
UKRL
Roar Rookie
Hey has a point. GWS has had audiences of only 17,000 on 7mate in Sydney. Channel 7 rarely show AFL on it's main channel.