This is the fifth of nineteen articles that are looking at the meta-results for both team and players, as collected from ELO-Following Football’s wide range of sources.
Presenting, the Essendon Bombers.
Back in 2017
The team finished seventh, having finally recovered from the scandal-which-must-not-be-named, with a home-and-away record of 12-10 and with a percentage of 107.
The expectations for the team
Were that they’d be playing finals again this season.
Coming into the season, the players who were considered to be in the top 50 in the league by the AFLPA or The Roar included Joe Daniher (remember him?), Michael Hurley, and Zach Merrett (all top 30), plus Dyson Heppell.
In 2018, the team finished
With a flourish after starting 2-6, that R8 loss to Carlton universally considered the season killer. They did make it back to last year’s record of 12-10, strangely enough, but in 2018 that was one game short of making it into the top eight. Instead, with their percentage of 105, they landed third among four equals at 12 wins, 11th place overall, behind North and Port but ahead of the Crows.
It’s been…
Two seasons since their player-deprived wooden spoon experience of 2016, when half their list was banned by WADA from playing as a punishment all of Australia thought was beyond the boards.
Bombers head coach John Worsfold. (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/AFL Media/Getty Images)
It’s also been five years since the AFL punished the club by pulling them from finals for the same scandal; in essence, the Bombers lost two competitive seasons for (fill in the blank) one man’s actions / a few rogue administrators / the poor judgment of the majority of the team.
Regardless of your choice, it seems like overkill.
It’s been 18 years since the greatest single season of my footy lifetime, the 24-1 Essendon Bombers, AFL champions of 2000. Scrunched in the middle of three straight minor premierships (Essendon was 56-10 in those three years), the millennial Bombers rolled over three AFL finalists by a collective 230 points, including a beatdown of third-place Melbourne by a ‘mere’ 60 in the Grand Final.
Including finals as well as the home-and-away season, no team has ever had a better record than those Bombers. Collingwood did go 18-0 during the regular season back in 1929, but lost in the semis before winning the grand final to finish 19-1 overall.
According to our patented “ELO-Following Football” rating system, the team started the season just below the midpoint of 50, with a rating of 46.4, 12th of the 18 teams. As you might expect, the lowest rating (35.3) came after the Round 8 loss to Carlton that dropped them to 2-6, and each of the last five games created a new highest rating of the season, ending at 63.2 (7th overall, above finalists Hawthorn and Sydney).
The other rating systems? Yeah…
Wooden Finger said exactly the same thing; FMI started their string of highest ratings at Round 17, while US Footy and The Arc each had dips in the ratings over the last couple of games.
Across the spectrum game-by-game expectations
Final record: 12-10.
Betting Line expectations: If the line-setters had been right, the Bombers would’ve been 10-11-1. Essendon did go 13-9 against the spread, however.
ELO-Following Football forecasts: We were no better here at Following Football, figuring on 8-13-1 once they proved themselves inferior to Carlton in Round 8.
AFL.com.au game predictions: 6-16. Noticing a theme yet?
The Roar predictions: Better than most – 11-11, with the individual votes splitting 59-62.
“Pick-A-Winner” predictions: 9-13.
The Age forecasters: 9-13, and the individual voters went 126-138.
BetEasy “CrowdBet” percentages: They expected 10-12.
My own game-by-game predictions pegged them at 7 and 15, so I can hardly throw stones.
Essendon should have done better. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Which game would they most like to erase from memory?
The easiest call of the whole series of articles: Round eight, at the MCG.
Carlton 91, Essendon 78. First Carlton win of the season.
Bombers drop to 2-6, season in tatters, calls for heads to roll.
What was their best game of the season?
Therefore, the Round 9 game against Geelong was the cry of a prisoner being set free from its bondage. As Marc McGowan put it in the recap on the AFL website, “This was what Essendon’s shiny new 2018 model was supposed to look like.” They led nine goals to two at the half, 71-23 at three quarters, and eased into a 34-point victory when the oddsmakers had called for a 31-point loss.
It must’ve felt incredibly good in that locker room, especially considering they were still just a 3-6 team.
If we were to speak of the club in as many words as they had wins in 2018
“Finally! A disappointing season that can’t be blamed on the drug scandal!”
Meta-player of the year results
1. Dyson Heppell – 261 points (29th overall)
Best & Fairest finish: second. Received 13 Brownlow votes, most on the club.
Last year’s result: fourth (46th overall)
Notable games: Three prominent games (R15, 17, and 19) and two notable games (R14 and 21).
2. Devon Smith – 241 points (39th overall)
Best & Fairest finish: first (in his first year at Essendon). Received 11 Brownlow votes, second most on the team.
Last year’s result: 19th at GWS.
Notable games: One dominant game (R14), two prominent games (R10 and 18), and two notable games (R22-23).
All-Australian 40-man roster.
3. Zach Merrett – 231 points (45th overall)
Best & Fairest finish: third. Third here, third there, third most Brownlow votes on the team with ten.
Last year’s result: first in both 2017 (seventh overall) and 2016 (33rd).
Notable games: One dominant game (R9), three prominent games (R12, 15, and 21), and two notable games (R16 and 19).
4. Michael Hurley – 151 points (75th overall)
Best & Fairest finish: seventh. Received the fourth highest number of Brownlow votes on the team, with seven.
Last year’s result: third (32nd overall)
Notable games: One prominent game (R4) and one notable game (R17).
Michael Hurley. (Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)
5. Cale Hooker – 113 points (101st overall)
Best & Fairest finish: eighth
Last year’s result: ninth (107th overall)
Notable games: One dominant game, in R9.
6. David Zaharakis – 108 points (105th overall)
Best & Fairest finish: not in top ten, although he did receive the fifth highest number of Brownlow votes with six.
Last year’s result: fifth (60th overall), second in 2016.
Notable games: One prominent game, in R1.
7. Orazio Fantasia – 104 points (111th overall)
Best & Fairest finish: Outstanding clubman
Last year’s result: sixth (74th overall)
Notable games: Two dominant games (R15 and 18).
8. Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti – 92 points (124th overall)
Best & Fairest finish: fifth
Last year’s result: eighth (100th overall), sixth in 2016
Notable games: One dominant game, in R21.
9. Jake Stringer – 91 points (129th overall)
Best & Fairest finish: not in top ten
Last year’s result: ninth for the Bulldogs
Notable games: none
10. Adam Saad – 90 points (131st overall)
Best & Fairest finish: fourth
Last year’s result: thirteenth
Notable games: One notable game in R14.
Adam Saad. (Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)
Essendon had four top 100 players and 13 top 200 players in the 2018 ELO-FF meta-rankings.
Honourable mentions
Tom Bellchambers – equal 12th place (77 points), sixth in Best & Fairest voting
Aaron Francis – 15th place (47 points), one notable game in R23.
Brendan Goddard – 11th place (78 points), 10th in Best & Fairest voting
Connor McKenna – 16th place (46 points), ninth in Best & Fairest voting, one notable game (in R21).
David Myers – equal 12th place (77 points), two notable games (in R15 and 21).
Player movement during the trade period
In: Dylan Shiel (from GWS, despite the last-minute concerns)
Gone: Travis Colyer
Current list of draft picks: 34, 66, 84. A risk.
2019 List highlights
Backs: Patrick Ambrose, Mark Baguley, Matt Dea, Aaron Francis, Martin Gleeson, Michael Hartley, Cale Hooker, Michael Hurley, Connor McKenna, David Myers, Adam Saad
Midfielders: Matt Guelfi, Dyson Heppell, Kyle Langford, Andrew McGrath, Zach Merrett, Darcy Parish, Dylan Shiel, David Zaharakis
Ruckmen: Tom Bellchambers
Forwards: Mitch Brown, Joe Daniher, Orazio Fantasia, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, Shaun McKernan, Devon Smith, James Stewart, Jake Stringer
Forecast for 2019
It never quite felt like the 2018 Dons were complete. They finished the season 10-4, and the consensus was that they were definitely one of the eight best teams at the end of the season.
Will they be one of the eight best at the start of the 2019 season? Hard to know. Dylan Shiel is going to be a huge addition for them, and the easiest thing to do is to pencil Essendon in for a seventh-place finish in 2019, where they were last year.
However, there are eight other clubs that are equally reasonable (in our estimation) to make finals next year, and we see the Bombers in the four-team pack from places six through nine with Sydney, Brisbane, and Adelaide.
For now, we’re placing Essendon ninth next year¸ but we won’t be surprised if they do make finals. In our minds, they’ve got about a 75% chance to do so!
Birdman
Roar Rookie
Good work, Gordon. I'm also not convinced the Dons will play finals in 2019 despite the hype and prime time leg-up from the AFL who see them as another Collingwood i.e. the club neutrals love to hate. Pretty happy that the Hawks broke their hot streak late in 2018 to help them miss finals.
Jakarta Fan
Roar Rookie
Essendon's start was disastrous as was their game plan. A coaching personnel change came after Round 8, and immediately there was a new free flowing game plan. Was that a co-incidence? The real Essendon of 2018 was seen in Rounds 9-23 with a 10-4 record. Add to this a healthy Daniher, Fantasia and Dylan Shiel, it would be more realistic to put them in the 3-7 range for 2019. It surprises me that you put Brisbane above Essendon when they have lost Beams , and being replaced by Neale is an equalizer not a gain. You have not factored in the depth of quality young players rising up with an extra years experience like Ridley, Clarke, Mutch, Begley, Redman, Laverde, Langford. There is also the replacement value for an aging Goddard with an exciting developing intercept player in Francis. It;s a good year to have a stronger and more realistic hope than last year. A fair prediction based on last years results, team changes, and the new draw is Essendon will have a 14-8 year, maybe even a 15-7. That's top 6 material.
Aransan
Roar Rookie
Matt Dea has been delisted, a valuable top-up player in 2016 and a good depth player otherwise. He would be a fine pick up for a young team looking for an experienced player while their young players were developing.
JamesH
Roar Guru
I'd have thought Shiel is more likely to be destructive, with Neale and Beams more likely to be consistent. Shiel was third in the comp for goal assists in 2018 and top 10 for inside 50s. As I've said to you previously, the first 8 rounds were a result of a playing group still finding its feet. The three S's were great gets but it's tough to bring three crucial players into your side and not have a teething period. That's particularly true when the rest of your side hasn't played a lot of footy together either and the gameplan and coaching structure is still taking shape. I'd be bitterly disappointed if 2019 starts in a similar fashion. Shiel will be coming into a far more established, mature setup than we had this time last year.
JamesH
Roar Guru
...Or his 22-disposal, 8-mark, 9-tackle, 8-inside fifty, 4-clearance, 3-goal game at the Gabba in round 12.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
The Bombers of 2000 should have won three flags. Like the Tigers this year just shows one bad final and bang you're done. The Bombers should be the bullet side in 2019 but they also should have this season and didn't. Hard to get a handle on them. Stringer will never be a consistent player. Saad and Smith were great inclusions, Shiel, as a recruit will be very consistent if not destructive as such like a Beams or a Neale. If given the choice of Beams, Neale and Shiel, I'd put Shiel third by a fair margin. Hooker is 30, Hurley turns 29 next year. Big fellas don't last long in this caper so they may be in their final two seasons...Joe Daniher will be important. The Bombers underachieved in 2018. Why? Their method? Their coaching? They didn't have the worst injury count in the comp and won more games when Daniher was out. They could be the glamour side in 2019 and finish anywhere from 1st to 4th but they are flaky too and may repeat what they did this year.
JamesH
Roar Guru
I don't know exactly how your match categorisations work, but I'd have thought Stringer's 4-goal game against Port, or his 29-disposal & 9-clearance effort against Richmond, would surely qualify as 'notable', if not 'prominent'. Otherwise, it's a good writeup, aside from your tip of 9th. ;)
DavidT
Guest
Odd, in one sentence you predict a 9th place finish despite saying in the same breath they are a 75% chance to make the finals.