Is Michael Cheika about to play Russian roulette with his career?

By David Lord / Expert

If Wallaby coach Michael Cheika decides to play second stringers against the Azzurri in Padua at the weekend, he’s putting his career on the line.

Under normal circumstances the career stat of the Wallabies beating Italy 17 times from as many starts, chalking up 605 points to 244, would be enough to maybe give them a start.

But not when the current campaign is in tatters, winning just three of 11 this year.

It would be far more positive for the Wallabies to hammer the Azzurri by 50 points leading into the England clash, where the Wallabies haven’t beaten the men-in-white on Eddie Jones’ watch.

So paying Italy no respect wouldn’t be one of Cheika’s shrewdest moves.

In fact, it would be the dumbest of dumb decisions.

What would be worse a loss to the Italians will most certainly end his coaching career on the spot, despite assurances from both Rugby Australia, and CEO Raelene Castle, that Cheika will coach the Wallabies at the Rugby World Cup in Japan next year.

Michael Cheika is under fire. (AFP PHOTO / MARTIN BUREAU)

If they didn’t sack him immediately after a loss to Italy, the Rugby Australia switchboard would be in meltdown from irate fans from all over the world, and justifiably so.

Sure, the Italians are the proven worst Tier One side in world rugby by the length of the straight, but don’t disrespect them.

They have never beaten England in 24 attempts, nor the All Blacks in 13, but have beaten the Boks once in 14.

They have been in the Six Nations since 2000, and in 95 internationals have won just 12 – seven against Scotland, two and a draw against Wales, two against France, and one over Ireland.

To justify the worst tag, Italy has won the dreaded Six Nations wooden spoon 13 times in 19 tournaments, with Scotland four times, and Wales with France once each.

New Zealand ‘s Israel Dagg runs in for a try during a rugby test match between Italy and New Zealand (Alessandro Di Meo/ANSA via AP)

And Michael Cheika wants to play Russian roulette with a side that on their day has beaten Tier One sides before, albeit very very rarely.

It’s not worth the risk coach.

And while you’re at it, don’t overlook the fact whistle-happy Frenchman Pascal Gauzere will be refereeing in Padua.

He controlled the Ireland series decider at Allianz Stadium in June by blowing the ill-disciplined Wallabies off the park to allow Johnny Sexton to land five penalties to Bernard Foley’s three in Ireland’s 20-16 success.

So the game plan is simple Michael Cheika, select your best 23, remind them of their discipline, and hammer the Azzurri to a cricket score.

Then take on England.

The Crowd Says:

2018-11-15T18:34:35+00:00

Derek Murray

Roar Rookie


I think most of us simply ignored it for the rubbish it is

2018-11-15T18:33:30+00:00

Derek Murray

Roar Rookie


I completely forgot about Banks. He has to start

2018-11-15T18:28:00+00:00

Derek Murray

Roar Rookie


It’s a no brainer. He has to give his 2nd XV a run. The team lacks confidence. Saying we need to persist with the team I pick each week sends a message we’re desperate and doesn’t allow us to see if alternatives are real options. And, seriously, does a Wallaby fan really care now if we lose? We’ll get hammered by England anyway. A win against a rubbish Italy means nothing

2018-11-15T14:48:52+00:00

Die hard

Roar Rookie


I see the same over a while now Don. She's gone from cheerleader to whipping squad in a jiffy. Maybe someone sent round some photos perhaps I thought But maybe she got the message that she was looking like an amateur chump and should smarten up. Which is good because she's worth reading now so well done Georgina

2018-11-15T13:34:03+00:00

WEST

Roar Guru


Haha.. About to?.. Intersing article. But, far more interesting title! Wallabies need a new coach.. That's been obvious for years! Unlearn what you have learned" means that some of the knowledge you "know to be true" may not be true, and could be blocking your ability to perform some task. Yoda How many distractions can an individual make up before the people see ration! The man is a con artist, con artist in business and in his career. However!! eliminating Cheika won't Be the magic pill. The players must unlearn before they truly learn.

2018-11-15T12:15:08+00:00

Keilidh

Roar Rookie


Correct, he's put himself in this no win situation, he has developed neither depth nor a winning first choice team and 11 games into the season still hoping the team will gel. I guess only Cheika and RA know his plan and whether a win against Italy is more important than depth for the RWC. His best option would seem to be an inexperienced starting team with a strong bench, but I still don't know if there is enough faith in the bench to be able to save the game if required.

2018-11-15T12:08:14+00:00

ThugbyFan

Roar Guru


Well coach Cheika has picked the side against Italy he has brought in the changes that many wanted but also kept some really strange selections, almost as if he wants it to fail. Wallabies to face Italy 1. Scott Sio (53 Tests) 2. Folau Fainga’a (6 Tests) 3. Taniela Tupou (10 Tests) 4. Izack Rodda (15 Tests) 5. Adam Coleman (29 Tests) 6. Jack Dempsey (8 Tests) 7. Michael Hooper (c) (89 Tests) 8. David Pocock (76 Tests) 9. Jake Gordon* 10. Matt To'omua (40 Tests) 11. Jordan Petaia* 12. Bernard Foley (66 Tests) 13. Samu Kerevi (23 Tests) 14. Adam Ashley-Cooper (116 Tests) 15. Israel Folau (71 Tests) Reserves 16. Tatafu Polota-Nau (87 Tests) 17. Jermaine Ainsley (1 Test) 18. Sekope Kepu (101 Tests) 19. Rory Arnold (19 Tests) 20. Pete Samu (7 Tests) 21. Will Genia (98 Tests) 22. Kurtley Beale (82 Tests) 23. Dane Haylett-Petty (29 Tests) My Immediate thoughts on this team: (a) S.Sio is still there when he was the worst of the 4 props last Saturday and J.Ainsley as reserve and (b) T.Tupou starts but reserve THP is back to S.Kepu. The result is LHP could be a weakness and scrum destroyed against the Italy scrum. (c) The 2nd row and back row is overworked to save Cheika ar$e. (d) M.Toomua with B.Foley is the wrong way around, Foley is a 10 and that's it, M.Toomua is a #12 who is also a decent #10. Cheika did this to kill off Q.Cooper's chances to replace B.Foley and he has done it again. Foley should NOT be starting, at best a reserve #10. (e) and who is the #12 replacement if things go awry, Cheika's love-child K.Beale the non-tackling crab. I can see it now, halfway through the match with Australia in trouble, Toomua is hooked and never seen again while Foley goes back to #10 and Beale to #12 allowing the scintillating, brilliant, best-ever Tahs combo of Foley-Beale to save the day. Beale really needs a rest right out of this team, perhaps learning to tackle somewhere in Sydney. (f) Great news to see J.Petaia start his WB career. (g) Did Tom Banks pee on Cheika's dog? At least he gets to see the world I guess. Instead Cheika puts a pensioner in his place. Madness! (h) W.Genia should have his feet up sipping a nice Lambrusco or Chiani and getting the rest he needs. N.Phipps should be reserve halfback, he's a really busy player and atm his pass from the ruck is much faster than Genia's. Its not the best team but I guess Cheika is trying, but the man cannot bring himself to see what everyone else in Australia can see and that is non-tacklers need not apply for a WB job. Foley and Beale should be no-where near this team, their only job on Saturday is to ensure Cheika's favourites stay.

2018-11-15T09:29:21+00:00

Charlie Turner

Guest


Now that's out of the box thinking Peter. I'd take Latham of Cheika any day and I don't care if he has absolutely no idea what he's doing.

2018-11-15T09:25:45+00:00

Charlie Turner

Guest


Good words Max.

2018-11-15T08:49:03+00:00

Colvin Brown

Roar Guru


It's really a no win situation if you look at it that way. The bottom line is Cheik must win on Saturday.

2018-11-15T08:22:20+00:00

Don

Roar Rookie


Georgina Robinson is now writing articles that aren't just cheerleading and propaganda for Michael Cheika. That tells me the scribes and insiders are trying to distance themselves somewhat.

2018-11-15T08:15:55+00:00

brian

Guest


Yeah agree completely. I don't get how being "flat-track bullies" is going to be of any assistance to RWC preparations given that there are two tournaments in between. It would not even be of any assistance to the England match. So England are going to do the same defensive patterns that allowed a first-choice Wallaby backline do slick planned routines against Italy? Are England going to provide similar attacking finesse shown by Italy that allowed the first-choice Australian team to prevent the try line being crossed? No, racking up a cricket score against Italy won't do anything but convince the first-voice team that their selection, and pay-packet, is deserved. Then, in typical Australian fashion, England will steam-roll and overconfident first-choice side. Better for mine that a few depth-building selections be made that bring Wallabies back to Italy skill/experience level. A close call, or god forbid a tight loss, and the blood is up, and England get mugged (as they should).

2018-11-15T07:38:18+00:00

Wally

Guest


Sorry Loxie. Keep your skirt on. RA social media scribes monitor this site and everyone knows what happened to a few guys for letting their feelings known. I will not be giving you that sort of information. Hooper would not make a Captains choice awards night, and fact: super rugby is tiddly winks compared to test rugby.

2018-11-15T05:57:59+00:00

JP

Guest


Super Rugby is not Test Rugby, how many times do we have to tell you.?

2018-11-15T05:09:15+00:00

Craig

Guest


Absolutely spot on.

2018-11-15T04:57:21+00:00

frank

Guest


Given he's under no pressure of losing his job I don't think he's risking anything. Maybe just a the few fans that remain..

2018-11-15T04:40:00+00:00

Bunter

Roar Rookie


It's stats. The author wants to note Italy's previous performance - I'm not sure how you can sum it up much differently? You can't change the outcome of what's already occurred.

2018-11-15T04:27:21+00:00

ajg

Guest


perfect response. i came here to say the exact the same thing

2018-11-15T03:42:55+00:00

Buk

Guest


I think if he (MC) was going to be dropped, it would have happened already (e.g. after 3-0 to England). Definitely think he should give others in the squad a go, rest regulars, and Italy is the game to do that. Even if the team lost to Italy (which I highly doubt, as second-stringers will be out to prove something): - might lull England into complacency - gives MC a chance to repeat his Argentina half time speech at the start of the England game

2018-11-15T03:07:29+00:00

Loxie

Guest


evidence of lockroom dissatisfaction? who told you? I am as critical as everyone else of Cheika's selections and loyalty to out of form players. Fact: Tah's are the number 1 SR team in Australia by a considerable margin, is it any surprise they would be over represented in the national side? Whats your alternative fill Wallabies with the also rans they beat all season? You are confusing loyalty to past performers, piss poor positional sections that unbalance the team and a shit game plan, with state bias. I agree Hooper is not captain material, he is however consistently one of the best performed forwards...look at the stats. I do prefer Pocock at 7 and captain with the Hooper finisher, but this requires a real 8 to work, which Cheiker has refused to select. Hanangan must go, Beale & Folley to the bench, Tomua 10, Kerivi 12, Petea 13, drop Phipps for Gordon. Not a whole lot can be done in the forwards right now.

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