Italy vs Wallabies: Spring Tour preview and prediction

The Wallabies play Italy in Padua on Saturday as they desperately search for some form and points before heading to a daunting day in Twickenham the week after.

While normally a match against Italy would be a guaranteed victory, the way things are going at the moment, Michael Cheika and his squad will be well aware that they are going to have to earn every single point against a passionate home side.

In an attempt to find some form, Cheika has decided to ring the changes and is looking to both old experience and fresh talent.

Adam Ashley-Cooper makes an incredible return to the Wallabies wing having not played international rugby for over two years.

Four other changes see Jake Gordon start at scrum-half, Matt Toomua play outside him at No.10 and then both Taniela Tupou and Folau Fainga’a start in the front row with Tolu Latu dropping out of the matchday squad altogether.

Jake Gordon of the Waratahs is set to make his Wallabies debut. (Photo by Gabriel Rossi/Getty Images)

Just as interesting as the new players is the way in which the backs are lining up for the Wallabies.

Toomua will start at fly half with a new centre pairing of Bernard Foley and Samu Kerevi.

It’ll be great to see Kerevi continue his comeback and he’ll be wanting to have a big impact after failing to cause the Welsh any problems in Cardiff.

But it’s confusing to see Foley at inside centre. On the one hand having two playmakers at No.10 and No.12 is something the Wallabies have tried plenty of times before, but Foley is not a centre.

Is Cheika genuinely interested in playing Foley at inside centre for the foreseeable future? Does he want to give an out of form Kurtley Beale some rest? Is he just desperate for something to work and will try anything?

You’d assume that Cheika and the players are viewing the final match of their 2018 against England as the big one and a way to salvage some sort of pride.

But to rest Beale and not Hooper or Pocock in this game seems a bit strange. Beale desperately needs to find some form while the back rowers arguably could do with a bit of downtime.

While we’re talking about confusing selections, Tom Banks and Jack Maddocks aren’t in the 23 man squad.

Why would Cheika want to give a debut to Petaia when he has both Banks and Maddocks as wing options who could build on their international experience ahead of the World Cup?

But whichever players take the field, the bigger issue is whether the Wallabies can execute an effective game plan against the Italians.

Against the Welsh it was clear yet again that the Aussies really struggle to shift from Plan A to Plan B or whether they even have a Plan B.

What is frustrating for fans though is that in the second half against the Pumas recently, the Aussies played a beautifully simple, direct and effective style of play that saw them tear the Argentinians to pieces.

It’s there! It’s within these players to do play this way! So where did it go against the Welsh?

Well wherever it went, it needs to come back on Saturday. The Italians are a side that the Aussies should blow away and if they play in that same direct manner in the first 30 minutes then the home side could well struggle to contain the visitors.

But if the Aussies start slowly and allow the Italians to niggle them and gain some momentum and confidence then Wallaby nerves might come into play.

We’ve all seen them trying to force things, try one offload too many, force a miss pass when it’s just not on and give away penalties at the breakdown at key times.

(Photo by Phil Walter/Getty Images)

For the home side, coach Conor O’Shea has only made one change from the side that beat a robust Georgia last week as Jayden Hayward gets to add to his 10 caps.

Italy weren’t amazing against the Eastern Europeans but they were never really in danger either and quietened some of the voices calling for them to be replaced by the Georgians in the Six Nations.

The Italians will know that they are underdogs in this match but they will also feel that they’ve probably never had a better chance to beat the Wallabies than this weekend.

If they can come out flying from the first whistle and really put some controlled pressure on the Aussies then who knows what can happen.

It’s critical that the Italians don’t get carried away though – if they shoot out of the defensive line too eagerly then the Aussies do have some capable kickers in their ranks.

The Italians need to balance fire with control and if they do then the men in gold will have to show that they have what it takes to gradually wear the home side down and not throw speculative miss passes.

Prediction
This isn’t going to be straight forward for the Wallabies but they should pick up the win here.

Sadly it’s a bit of a no win situation – if they win we’ll all say we expected it and it means nothing.

If they lose then all bets are off and who knows what Raelene Castle will be thinking.

Australia to win by 12 points.