A win is a win, the old adage goes. So on paper, at least, the Wallabies 26-7 victory over Italy, with a four tries to one advantage, looks impressive given the recent run of dismal results for Australia.
But this view is undoubtedly too generous to the Wallabies.
Italy are ranked below even the falling Wallabies and it showed as they wilted when some attacking pressure was applied to them in the five minute periods before and after half-time.
Aside from this disastrous (for them) lapse into mediocrity, however, Italy frequently out-played the Wallabies for long periods of play. This outcome of Italy often looking like a better team than the Wallabies is what should worry Michael Cheika and his coaching staff.
Italy, too, were denied a couple of tries, including a crucial early intercept-try that might have deflated the Wallabies, given their recent lacklustre performances.
Three of the Wallabies tries came in a 14-minute period of play, from the 35th minutes to the 45th when Marika Korbeite scored twice and Taniela Tupou, in his best performance for the Wallabies, crashed across in a typically bull-storming run.
Korobeite’s second try was set up by a neat inside break from the Wallabies newest recruit in 2019 and its oldest player, Adam Ashley-Cooper.
I will admit now that my initial reaction to coach Cheika’s decision to recall the 34 year-old Ashley-Cooper was that this was a mistake, in the Matt Giteau 2015 category.
But Ashley-Cooper was far and away the best Wallaby on the field.
Adam Ashley-Cooper of Australia is tackled by Leonardo Ghiraldini of Italy (Photo by Dan Mullan/Getty Images)
He duffed an early high ball catch but from that point on he was composed, neat and effective, on attack and defence.
All his interventions, and he was on the ball a lot despite wearing a winger’s jersey, advanced the impact and thrust of the Wallabies attacks.
He did what all good backs – and indeed forwards – are supposed to do, that is improving the quality of the Wallabies ball whenever he got his hands on it.
When the opposition becomes more formidable, as England will be next week, it will be interesting and instructive to see whether Ashley-Cooper can maintain the composure and assurance he demonstrated against Italy.
Against Italy, at least, the comparison between his composed play and the headless chook play of the other backs, with the exception of Samu Kerevi and Jake Gordon, both of whom played strongly, was stark.
The experiment of playing Bernard Foley as an inside centre did not work. He does not have the power and the size to dominate the middle of the field that the position requires from a player in this position.
Foley is either playing at number 10, or not in the Wallabies starting side.
Matt Toomua, the selected number 10, was hardly an improvement on Foley. He stood deep, often 10m behind the gain line. He didn’t attack the gain line. He merely shovelled the ball to a runner.
He essentially replicated the Foley game, without Foley’s occasional flashes of brilliance at breaking the line.
Matt Toomua of Australia (Photo by Dan Mullan/Getty Images)
Before the Test, Jamie Pandaram, had an interesting short article in The Australian (“Wallabies have a mountain to climb) that pointed out the “ugly truth” about the Wallabies chances of success in Rugby World Cup 2019 given this season’s succession of loses.
Going into the Test against Italy, the Wallabies had won three of their 11 Tests, giving the side a 27 per cent winning rate.
The win against Italy bumps that winning rate up to 33 per cent.
It is difficult to see the Wallabies defeating England next weekend but even if they did they would only record five wins out of 13 Tests in 2018 which would give them a 38 per cent winning Test record in 2018.
No team with this sorry record of percentage wins and with eight (or nine) losses in a season has won a Rugby World Cup tournament.
This was the point of Jamie Pandaram’s article as his first sentence notes: “Australia must produce the greatest statistical turnaround in rugby history to win next year’s Rugby World Cup.”
Pandaram gave these statistics that provided the Test win-loss record of Rugby World Cup winners in the previous season to make his case:
2014: New Zealand won 12 of 14 Tests
2010: New Zealand won 13 of 14
2006: South Africa won 5 of 12
2002: England won 8 of 9
1998: Australia won 11 of 13
1994: South Africa won 5 of 9
1990: Australia won 5 of 9
1987: New Zealand won 3 of 6
Pandaram made the additional point, too, that the although Springboks, winners in 2007, had the worst record of the all the Rugby World Cup winners, they had defeated the All Blacks, Wallabies and England in their final five Tests in 2006.
In this context, I suppose, the last match of this year’s European tour against England will become a sort of final straw to grasp at for their supporters, Rugby Australia, the players and coaching staff, if the Wallabies somehow come away with a victory.
Personally, I believe the Wallabies Rugby World Cup tournament hopes were really destroyed when the team lost to Wales the previous weekend.
The point here is that the Wallabies are in Pool D of the match schedule for Rugby World Cup 2019, along with Wales, Georgia, Fiji and Americas 2.
Will Genia (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
This is a much easier pool round than the Pool of Death in Rugby World Cup 2015 when the Wallabies, Wales and England were in the same group.
It is one of the great stories of Australian rugby that the Wallabies escaped the Pool of Death in Rugby World Cup 2015 and went on to play out the final against the All Blacks.
In a sense, winning the quarter-final and semi-finals in Rugby World Cup 2015 were easier than getting out of the Pool of Death for the Wallabies, even though they made heavy weather of defeating Scotland.
In Rugby World Cup 2019, the Wallabies will have a relatively easy route through their Pool D but then, despite whether they emerge undefeated or lose to Wales in their pool round, they are going to have (or are likely to have if 2018 form is any guide) a really hard quarter-final (likely either England, France, Argentina).
And in the semi-finals, they could face either the Springboks, the All Blacks or Ireland.
However, all that is conjecture. Rugby World Cup tournaments have a habit of turning up surprises, like the all southern hemisphere semi-finals in Rugby World Cup 2015.
The real point about the loss to Wales is that the winning hoodoo the Wallabies had over them was broken.
Once hoodoos like this are broken they are very hard to put together again.
That is the context, too, of Ireland’s outstanding victory over the All Blacks at Dublin.
This was no fluke. The All Blacks were up for the Test but Ireland were better-coached and had more fire power with their runners, backs and forwards, and in their scrums and lineout.
Ireland, rightly, are being considered the favourites now going into Rugby World Cup 2019.
Ireland’s Bundee Aki is tackled to the ground by Australia’s David Pocock (AAP Image/David Moir)
It wouldn’t be right to write off the All Blacks, though. However, it does look as though the Rugby World Cup 2011 and 2015 champions, with players in the side from both of these famous victories, are running out of ideas and energy.
We should remember, too, that they, like all the southern hemisphere teams, are coming off a tremendously hard and tiring season.
Their opponents, Ireland, like the other northern hemisphere countries, are in the middle of their seasons and are noticeably fresher than their southern hemisphere counterparts.
A second factor is that the southern hemisphere teams (and this includes the beleaguered Wallabies) are faced with opponents having the home ground advantage.
So, given these considerations, the performance of the Springboks on their tour, with a close loss to England, a close win against France and a tight win against Scotland, are significant in terms of what might happen in Rugby World Cup 2019.
Remember, too, that these away wins in Europe complement the Springboks win against the All Blacks in New Zealand.
The Springboks have improved significantly this season under the coaching of Rassie Erasmus. That improvement is reflected in an ability to win Tests out of South Africa. They are, in my view, a real deal contender now for the Rugby World Cup 2019 title.
Out of the weekend’s Tests, too, I think that Ireland showed they are also a real deal as Rugby World Cup 2019 contenders. They could go into the tournament as the favourites
The All Blacks, providing they defeat Italy next week, will have a season where they lost only two Tests, which duplicates their 2014 season. They remain a real deal Rugby World Cup contender, too.
Richie Mo’unga of the All Blacks (Photo by Anthony Au-Yeung/Getty Images)
Wales, continuing their winning streak with a powerful victory over Tonga 74-24, are showing that finally some of the historic magic is coming back into their game.
Finally, England should not be written off for Rugby World Cup 2019. They are more of an outside chance than a real deal team. But, and this is a crucial consideration, England has the best record in the Rugby World Cup tournament of any northern hemisphere team.
So a year out from Rugby World Cup 2019, my fearless prediction is that there are four teams with a strong chance of winning the Webb Ellis trophy at the 2019 Rugby World Cup tournament: Ireland, New Zealand, South Africa and Wales.
Just outside this group but capable of breaking into it is England.
Related
Unfortunately, I cannot see any hope for Australia progressing much further than the quarter-finals in Rugby World Cup 2019 on the strength (or, perhaps better, the weakness) of their performance on Saturday against Italy, and the lacklustre play they have shown throughout this season.
Vague
Roar Rookie
Spiro Did you watch any of the games you commented on? Foley stood too deep.??? Tomoua did just whay Foley did but lacked the occasional flare of Foley. ?? Is that a wrap for Foley?? you said out of all the backs only AAC played well, then you changed your mind. why? What was Kirobeti like? He's in great form. Am I the only one who wants to see what Tomoua is like at 10 (as if we don't need another number 10)? Did you see any forwards do anything (Hooper, Rodder, Topou, Dempsey - in form or what)? How did our (Wallabies) favourite ref. (O'Keif) perform in the Wales match (e.g. wasn't Hannigan pinned down overtly on the ruck by a large red jersey)? Wallabies lost the series to Ireland 3-1.each game could've gone either way. Ireland beat NZ. What's the comment? Wallabies lost more than they won it is rltrue. How many games could've gone either way. They're teir 1. They deserve to be critically analyzed, not just sledged. They need to start winning but how? & what is their strategy (long ter & short term)? what has succeeded & failed & how do you measure that?
Machiavelli
Guest
Spiro, Fortunes can be turned around in less than 12 months...it has happened countless times before. We need a new coach who can learn from how England and Ireland have shut down the AB's. Forget the flair, x-factor and razza-mattaz. Defense wins games.
Gloria
Roar Rookie
Spiro’s comments here are pretty reasonable, although I don’t agree we have no chance of winning. If Cooper is the 5/8, and he may well be, I think we have a decent chance. If Foley is the 5/8 I think our chances decline substantially. If Toomua is the 5/8, our chances are somewhere in between. Still in with a chance, either way. Cooper would allow a much simpler approach to backline play, Kerevi at inside centre a constant threat and Folau coming in off the wing as the second possible receiver the way Digby did. Straight lines off Cooper with AAC organising the defence at outside centre. None of this ‘second playmaker’ rubbish, or overly complex backline moves well behind the advantage line. Yes, Cooper has his weaknesses, as do all of our options. But he also has the most upsides and an undeniable Xfactor that will mess with our opponents minds. Once out of the pool, they only have to win three games to win the RWC. Better to go out all guns blazing, rather than popgun kicks and bumbling rubbish.
Gloria
Roar Rookie
Joker man, what was that you were saying about ‘evolving, accepting the truth, being honest with yourself, not trying to control the uncontrollable’?
Derm
Roar Guru
"reland, rightly, are being considered the favourites now going into Rugby World Cup 2019." Eh, no, they're not. And the bookies don't think so either.
Jokerman
Roar Guru
Unhinged is actually quite accurate - it just needs to belong to the correct owner.
stillmissit
Roar Guru
Corne and James, We have never been in as bad a form as we are now. To lift and win the cup from 7th and not improving is a major ask. I think the game against England will be interesting and I am hoping to see some improvement in the team but I have not seen it this season and last wasn't that flash either. I appreciate that confidence in the face of damning facts is a good thing but is it enough to win a WC where you have to win a lot in a row? We have been talking ourselves up before just about every major game since 2015 and falling short too often.
Rugby wizard
Guest
We can still win it,if Cheika selects a squad primed for RWC 2019,I have said it before and will say it again,70 percent of the squad currently are more fitting for 2023,the likes of higgs,barnes,Morahan,Connor,McMahon,Jones etc has too be involved,there is no problem having a few youngsters but the balance has too be right,petai would fit nicely into the setup if he was surrounded by a Barnes,AAC genia ,Folau players with experience.
Stu
Roar Rookie
Yep. WCup rolls around and it's the only time in four years that the Wallaby players bother to pull their fingers out and play like they're actually interested! Notwithstanding Folau of course. He still won't care! ????
Englishbob
Guest
A goodod read Spiro. Sadly the current inhabitants of that proud gold jersey are nowhere the level needed to win 7 games against increasing opposition at a world cup. I can't remember a more open looking RWC from a year out, the only thing id caution with Ireland is they are very reliant on Johnny sexton, their performances with the reserve fly half aren't nearly as accomplished. The wallabies, with the possible exception of pocock (I'd probably pick ardie savea personally, he gives more all round) do not have a single player who'd get in a world 15, Folau and Beale currently wouldn't who are the next two closest, the rest of the forwards are good but not one would get in the NZ or Ireland packs. Alot of Australias recent performances are Cheks fault but he just doesn't have the cattle
Danny
Roar Pro
Assessing the favourite for any RWC has always seemed to me a fraught business. Generally I think rankings going into the tournament is a better tool than averaging the bookies. Averaging expert opinion probably doesn't account enough for personal bias. My thoughts on past RWC winners v pre-tournament favourites: Champ Fav? 1987 NZ NZ 1991 AU NZ 1995 SA SA? 1999 AU AU 2003 EN EN? 2007 SA NZ 2011 NZ NZ 2015 NZ NZ 2019 ? ? I don't think my views on the 1987, 1991, 1999, 2011 and 2015 tournaments are particularly controversial. In 1995 NZ bought a rookie Jonah Lomu but I never felt the team was pre-tournament favourite - not clear who was but home ground advantage held in my mind. As the tournament progressed Jonah's destructiveness helped NZ become favourite, but SA prevailed. Perhaps some might think EN wasn't favourite in 2003, but that was a great team who had beaten all comers in the preceding three odd years and clearly deserved favouritism to me. NZ seemed a clear favourite in 2007 and put in its biggest underperformance of the eight cups contested. In hindsight NZ's favourites tag in 1991, if indeed it was really ever the favourite, was richly undeserved as the team was well off its 1987 era peak.
Diamond Jackie
Roar Rookie
Agree entirely. People often forget that there are two components to the odds of any victory - your performance and the performance of the opposing teams. It’s rare but there are 5 teams globally that would not look out of place holding aloft the 19 World Cup. And Australia isn’t one of them.
Perthstayer
Roar Rookie
FunBus As there no fixed number of penalties prior to YC it relies on ref's reading of the game + their bias. Oh no, that can't be right.....
FunBus
Roar Rookie
Wales are good and improving (much as I hate to say it). Your opinion of them is probably skewed by their very weird recent record against the ABs.
FunBus
Roar Rookie
What was blatant, was the succession of cynical penalties the ABs gave away in their own 22. This should have resulted in a YC for cumulative offences, and was just about my only criticism, although the challenge in the air was a 50-50 YC. Virtually, everyone outside NZ thought he reffed the game excellently, overall. The Kiwi assessment of reffing performances is, increasingly, bordering on the unhinged.
Jokerman
Roar Guru
The yellow was blatant and could have changed the game. The knock ons or not favoured the Irish. Not allowing the All Blacks to push for a penalty in the scrum was poor. The Irish had one bad call for a forward pass that wasn’t. I do find Barnes biased against the All Blacks. This game wasn’t extreme but it had the rub of the green that the Lions received last year. Had the scrums been measured fairly and a yellow for what is usually a yellow then the game would have been almost dead even. It was the Lions all over again! The bias from Barnes is something that I’ve seen too many times. I don’t like to focus on the ref but a perceived bias is always hard to take. The Irish deserved their win but the last three tests against the All Blacks they’ve received a average penalty count of around 13-5. Ill discipline or home town reffing? You cannot tell me taking Ioani in the air is disciplined. Of course SA had it unlucky with the shoulder charge last week. I would have been livid! Perhaps memories of the Lions series haunt. A few dodgy calls that make you wonder. Had Nigel Owens reffed this game I truely believe the All Blacks would have won. Two of the biggest games of the year and the All Blacks get their two nemesis. RWC seem to be free of unusual ref calls so all should be sweet huh.
sheek
Guest
I often find myself disagreeing with some mates who say we have the talent. Sorry, we don't have the cattle. How many of the Wallabies are world class? Pocock. And he's playing out of position. But even Pocock has his limitations. Hooper is lion-hearted, but undersized for a world class 7. Folau is a wonderful broken field player, but he's a receiver, a game-finisher, not so much a game-maker or game-breaker. Campo & Roff were brilliant at creating their own opportunities, Folau much less so. So the truth is, we don't have the cattle, we don't have anywhere near enough world class players. We can dream we do, but the reality is, we don't. And besides, with a dysfunctional RA with Clyne as its chairman & Castle as its CEO, we're not going anywhere fantastic in hurry. Nor do we deserve to.
I don't think he was biased, I agree there should have been a card for the collision in the air, and the home crowd especially one that involved always influence proceedings.
jeznez
Roar Guru
Just googled and you are right. I thought you had to be signed to play for the next season but the rule is actually that you must be signed to play for 2 seasons (not necessarily the next one)
Australia always features in World Cups. Regardless of previous form. They are one of those teams that always find a way to lift for the six weeks required to perform. Much like South Africa. No matter how poor, they always feature.