Another Test match week for the Wallabies, and it’s another round of selection lotto for Wallabies fans.
As another up-and-down spring tour draws the 2018 international season to a close this weekend in London, rugby fans await to see just what kind of selection rabbit Michael Cheika will draw from his hat this time.
And such is the extreme variation in everyone’s unsolicited team lists during this tour, I’m obviously not alone in admitting I don’t have the foggiest idea of who Cheika will pick to play against England.
Not that long ago you could predict a Wallabies selection with a decent degree of accuracy, as Cheika went out of his way to stay loyal to the players he’s so long entrusted to deliver his game plan.
But 2018 has been different. Those same players have continued to be named in squads on the most part, but the week-to-week combinations have been all over the shop.
With the exceptions of Will Genia, Michael Hooper, and Adam Coleman, just about every other Wallaby selected has worn at least two different jerseys in 2018, either swapping positions or switching between starting and coming off the bench.
And I should clarify, ‘swapping positions’ in the forwards is obviously relative; Pocock going from No.8 to openside for the one Test Hooper missed isn’t a huge switch. Backrowers are still playing backrow, locks are still playing lock. It’s not as if Taniela Tupou has been tried at the back of the scrum. Although I am curious about that one now…
The backline shuffling has been a little more involved than that, and I reckon it has to have been a factor in the Wallabies attack – or seeming lack thereof – in 2018.
The comparison has been made before, but it bears repeating.
In 2017 the Wallabies scored 59 tries and 436 points in 14 matches. In 2018 the numbers have plummeted to 28 tries and 231 points in the 12 matches completed to date. Whereas last season the Wallabies scored 31.1 points and 4.2 tries per game, this year it’s 19.3 points and 2.3 tries per match.
For what it’s worth, defensively the Wallabies conceded 28.3 points per game last year; in 2018 it’s down to 23.7 points per game. So that’s something.
Much of the blame for the diminished attack has been directed at attack coach Stephen Larkham, and by flow-on, national skills coach Mick Byrne, and that criticism is reasonably well aimed.
If the attack and the skills have deteriorated year-on-year, it’s reasonable that the specialist coaches responsible for those aspects of the Wallabies preparation are held to account.
(AAP Image/Craig Golding)
But how much of it could be put down to the ever-present revolving door that has been the only constant in more than a few of the backline positions?
We know that combinations and relationships are becoming more and more important in professional sport, so it stands to reason that the constant chopping and changing of those backline combinations has to have an effect.
To borrow a line from the brilliant Veep, the Wallabies in 2018 have employed “continuity with change” in selecting their backs throughout the season.
Just how much chopping and changing, I hear you ask?
| Test | IRE | IRE | IRE | NZ | NZ | RSA | ARG | RSA | ARG | NZ | WAL | ITA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venue | Brisbane | Melbourne | Sydney | Sydney | Auckland | Brisbane | Gold Coast | Port Elizabeth | Salta | Yokohama | Cardiff | Padua |
| 9 | Genia | Phipps | Genia | Gordon | ||||||||
| 10 | Foley | Beale | Foley | Toomua | ||||||||
| 11 | Koroibete | Naivalu | ||||||||||
| 12 | Beale | Toomua | Beale | Foley | ||||||||
| 13 | Kerevi | Hodge | Folau | Kerevi | ||||||||
| 14 | Haylett-Perry | Maddocks | Folau | Naivalu | Folau | Ashley-Cooper | ||||||
| 15 | Folau | Haylett-Perry | Folau | |||||||||
| 21 | Samu | Phipps | Powell | Phipps | Genia | |||||||
| 22 | Phipps | Powell | Toomua | Folau | Toomua | Kerevi | Toomua | Beale | ||||
| 23 | Hodge | Maddocks | Banks | Maddocks | Banks | Maddocks | Haylett-Perry | |||||
Well, a bit. Since using an unchanged backline for the first two Tests against Ireland – and Genia’s injury the only changed for the third Test – Cheika has made at least one change every match bar one since.
Through the Rugby Championship, in fairness, the changes were generally minimal. There was one change for the Auckland Bledisloe from Sydney and then two for South Africa in Brisbane from Auckland. But this was where Cheika started experimenting with Kurtley Beale at No.10 and Matt Toomua at No.12.
From Brisbane to the Argentina Test on the Gold Coast, Israel Folau returned from injury, but on the right wing with a roving attack role that also saw him pop up in midfield occasionally. The backline went unchanged for South Africa in Port Elizabeth, but two changes for Argentina in Salta saw the return of Bernard Foley at No.10 with Beale outside him at No.12.
Once the spring tour was on, the changes increased – two further changes for New Zealand in Yokohama, two more for Wales in Cardiff and finally five changes to the backs for Italy last week in Padua.
All up, in the nine Tests in which the Wallabies have made a change to the starting backline, the 10-12-13 midfield unit been changed in some way in five of them. On the bench, Cheika hasn’t named the same backline replacements in consecutive Tests since the first two Ireland Tests, in which he played a 6-2 bench split anyway.
(Photo by Dan Mullan/Getty Images)
Just when Genia gets used to Foley again, Beale comes into flyhalf. Then, just when Toomua gets used to playing outside Beale, he gets benched and we’re back to Foley-Beale in midfield. It was Toomua-Foley last week, and who honestly thinks they can confidently predict the combination for England this week?
I don’t and I won’t try.
We’ve all spoken about the issue with moving parts on the field, both defensively and in attack, but plotting the changes like this highlights to me that the moving parts on the selection whiteboard have to be having the same sort of impact.
Viewed that way, it’s actually quite remarkable that the Wallabies are conceding fewer points per game this year than they did in 2017.
For the removal of all doubt, this exercise of highlighting the backline changes doesn’t in any way pretend that this is the only issue facing the Wallabies this season. And yes, it’s still true that you have to win the breakdown and go forward before you can go wide.
But worryingly, and facing the last Test of 2018, it’s impossible to know what the best, genuinely first choice Wallabies backline is. Or what it will look like this weekend.
JonB
Roar Rookie
Flyhalf concerns for sure, Foley is competent but cant take the game away from the opposition, every good team is build around a good flyhalf, the general that needs to take control of the game. Foley then Beale, Beale then Foley? it seems theres no General in the team!
RobC
Roar Guru
Thanks Brett! The problem, is the coaches. - They think the issue is with 10. - So they try diff things and move things around - Doesn't work - So they try more things Tahs this year has zero problems with Nard in 10. It's not the players!
Garry
Guest
Wasn’t KB a large part of the demise of the previous coach? Could be something in that?
Garry
Guest
If he’s recalled, it will be at the very last minute, as Cheika likes to do. The lack of time to gel with the backline will be MC’s way of justifying his long faith in Foley.
Neil Back
Roar Rookie
Agree mzilikazi. But taking a leaf out of your book of optimism I hope he morphs into a different but improved player. As a wrecking ball he is (was?) destructive but that’s not a style that promotes longevity. I’d rather he develops a game closer to his cousin’s Faletau, who I rate very highly - still physical but great hands and link play with intelligent running lines which is less ‘run through’ the opposition and more ‘burst past’. Looking forward to his return.
CUW
Roar Rookie
true that England 23 are not as settled as some of the other countries - but there are number of positions that are more or less settled. Mako V and Hartley will start. There is no good reason as of now not to start the Co_Captain. Launchbury will start and Itoje too - tho where am not sure. (5 or 6) BillV will start Farrell will start May and Daly will start. most of the questions are due to injuries. for eg Eddie has been trying to get Tui on the field - but again it seems he cannot play. i think the bigger issue is non-selection of some players who are playing well - like Cipriani and Armand to name two. After the performance of Ford against japan , Eddie is on thin ice wrt Cipriani. what is good for england is they do have depth - like in the props , locks and flankers , centers and backs. now they have time to settle on the combination at 6 nations. of course injuries permitting.
HiKa
Roar Rookie
Nailed it!
SDHoneymonster
Guest
England 23 named earlier, fancy y'all would want to run the rule over it: Moon George Sinckler Itoje Lawes Shields Underhill Wilson Youngs Farrell (c) May Te'o Slade Cokanasiga Daly Bench: Hartley, Hepburn, Williams, Ewels, Hughes, Wigglesworth, Ford, Tuilagi. George starting over Hartley and Tuilagi returning for the first time in forever the big stories.
HiKa
Roar Rookie
That's the golden nugget. The screamingly obvious part of Ireland's success (and England's damn near thing) against the All Blacks was relentless defensive pressure. That can only come from having all 15 on the park capable of doing, at a minimum, a good job of defending their position. So, how can the Wallabies expect to compete with the better Tier 1 teams while carrying multiple passengers in defence. Foley can make a decent cover tackle but is poor in front-on defence. Beale is very inconsistent in defence, sometimes doing very good things, but too often making awful mistakes. Folau at full-back is quite poor in defence because of his positioning, but when he's on the wing, he's also pretty shoddy. He can certainly tackle. It just doesn't happen too often and he regularly gets played around and seems to make little effort to get back to where the action is. Kerevi is getting better at 13, but it's still a struggle for a guy who is clearly a very good 12 who defends very well at 12. DHP's defence is generally OK but don't we all wish he was faster over the turf. Korobeite has been asked to do ridiculous things in positioning himself throughout most of his time in the Wallabies. If he'd been asked to focus on a traditional winger's role and just do that to the best of his abilities, I think his defence would probably be pretty good by now, but he wasn't, and it isn't. Genia's not been happy in defence this year, either, since he has been given a kind of sweeper role where his job is to tackle, or at least slow down, the opposition guys who've just busted through the holes in the front line defence. So a lot of Genia's tackle attempts this year have been aimed at big fast units who have already got a head of steam up. He's made quite a lot of those tackles, but not all of them. That's my little brass coin sporting a frilled-neck lizard.
Rugby wizard
Guest
Looking through that list,makes Australian rugby look very strong,Paul Alo Emile is a terrific scrummager, the trio of him saliva and aalatoa was sensational at school boy level and under 20 level together when under 20 team reached the final,If I'm correct Sio was a reserve in that team it also included morahan,white,tomua,Hooper and squad players like kuridrani and gill too name a few.
Rugby wizard
Guest
Add connor and the error free barnes and that group looks better than current wallaby players,I dont get why some fans think cooper and barnes are past it,they both younger than Sexton who is 33.
Harry Jones
Expert
Michael Cheika has virtues, as most men do, but I don’t think patience heads his list. Good one, B Mac!
Neil Back
Roar Rookie
You obviously can't blame Eddie for the injuries FB, and it has been a horror story - even if he was clear on the combos (and I'm not convinced he is), he would have had little opportunity to bed them in. That said, I also think he got seduced by his winning run and neglected player development and tactical variation. Like you, I believe certain of the old guard should have been transitioned a while ago. and new blood properly tested. You're right, this 6N is crucial. He has to show his hand and largely stick with it - good players cannot become good combinations otherwise and he's already out of time in some areas. Equally, no team is or can be nailed on for Japan right now. But the two I think are closest to doing that, just happen to be the best two teams going right now.
Gishan De Soyza
Roar Pro
Hi Jez, With making a few assumptions that everyone will be fit and going by what we have seen and know with regards to form and hoping that Quade goes well and has a blinder of a season next year, this would be a good team to put out for just the RWC. Changes need to happen post WC but I think tghis team would give us the best opportunity to do well in Japan next year. Although there can be a few exceptions on a few positions. 1. S. Sio 2. J. Ulese 3. T. Topou 4. R. Simmons (Is the best line out caller ATM) 5. A. Coleman 6. J. Dempsy 7. M. Hooper 8. D. Pocock 9. W. Genia 10. Q. Cooper 11. T. Banks / J.O.C / Korobite / Naivalu 12. M. Toomua 13. T. Kurudrani 14. I. Folau 15. K. Beale 16. T.P.N / F. Fainga / B.P.A / T. Latu (Who ever is the best at the time) 17. A. Alatoa 18. S. Kepu 19. I. Rodda 20. L. Tui (Could be debated) 21. Gordon / Phipps / Powell (Whoever is best at the time) 22. S. kervi 23. R. Hodge / B. Foley (Based on opposition)
BledisloeAsUsual
Guest
Maybe AAC should just replace Larkham as backs coach and remind them how to keep it simple and catch pass. Good running lines and simple tactics made him look like a genius on the weekend, even though it was just an old pro showing the backs how to play rugby union rather then rugby league
BledisloeAsUsual
Guest
Agree, the best Beale looked lately was when he first got back from Wasps and his game seemed to have an added dimension. Now that has been lost along with the basics. I like Beale, but something is wrong at camp. Over coaching or bad tactics for anyone who stays too long on the merry-go-round
sheek
Guest
Yes Cassandra, I'm not a fan of the corporatisation of sport. Sure, I know that all professional sports need to make money. I do get that. But the cynic in me wonders that often the changes are cosmetic, deigned to make the administrators look more important & indispensable, so they can give themselves a pay rise. Don't tell me no-one else has noticed this!
sheek
Guest
Don - correct. If you don't change some of your ideas as you get older, then your mind is closed.
Nick Turnbull
Roar Guru
I agree, the Wallabies have the ability just not the game plan and mental application to do so. Therefore we are done.
jeznez
Roar Guru
I included him in the initial post as my preferred starting lock with Rodda. Lukhan's changed his name to Lukhan Salakaia-Loto. Salakaia in honour of his step-father who just passed and Loto for his birth father.