As one wit remarked recently on The Roar, if there’s one thing A-League expansion has brought about, it’s a preponderance of articles on expansion.
That be as it may, I thought another examination of the winning bids was warranted, taking a close look at why two bids were more successful than the four others.
In doing this, allow me to first lay out the following framework, including the assumptions we need to make that:
- The rumours of the Foxtel broadcast demanding a club each from Sydney and Melbourne were true. This means that as good as the Canberra bid was, it never stood a chance of breaking into the top two; and
- South Melbourne was never in the hunt. The reasons why would require an essay in its own right. Let’s just leave that one there.
When these two assumptions are combined, it means it’s incorrect to look at this as if the FFA was needing to select the two best bids from the shortlist of six on offer. That is not what happened. Rather, the selection process was conducted on the basis that the FFA needed to choose one bid from the following two groups.
- The Sydney group: Choose between Southern Expansion and Macarthur South West.
- The Melbourne group: Choose between South East Melbourne or Dandenong (Team 11) and West Melbourne Group (WMG).
(Brendon Thorne/Getty Images)
The Sydney group
The Southern Expansion bid had one key feature in common with Western Melbourne Group – it planned to fund its own stadium, or at least that was the stated claim early on. We didn’t hear too much more about that goal as the process went on.
The bid received a lot of criticism from many quarters in regard to its intention to play out of three different home grounds. There was also a nagging doubt that the bid was more interested in getting access to Sydney real estate than creating a football club.
Its other problem was that Sydney FC lobbied very hard against the admission of Southern Expansion, arguing that it impinged on what it saw as its natural constituency.
Once those behind the Southern Expansion bid got the news some 30 minutes before the FFA’s press conference, all social media accounts were taken down. This was very much an all-or-nothing exercise on their part.
The winning Macarthur-South West bid was already an amalgamation of two earlier bids, both wanting to play out of Campbelltown, so theirs was a natural union. The bid brought with it the following advantages:
- a close relationship with the local council;
- access to the boutique rectangular stadium at Campbelltown; and
- a growing region which can be viewed as being quite separate to the rest of Sydney.
The Wanderers did try to argue that this too represented their territory and, in the end, they succeeded in delaying the entry of Macarthur South West by one season. Looking at it objectively, the distance between Parramatta and Campbelltown is some 50 kilometres, so the FFA would rightly have concluded that the overlap with the Wanderers territory was minimal.
(Nigel Owen/Action Plus via Getty Images)
The Melbourne group
In the weeks leading up to the board meeting, we heard a lot about the Team 11 bid. Melbourne’s media outlets were convinced that this would be the winning bid, and with good justification.
As Vince Rugari reported in Saturday’s Age, Melbourne’s south-east has a bigger population, more grassroots participants and the likelihood of attracting greater TV ratings and attendances.
However, the bid did have two major failings:
- three levels of government were taking a bit too long to guarantee the funding to build a boutique stadium alongside Dandenong Railway Station; and
- the bid had stated that the club would play out of the open, wind-swept Casey Fields, which the FFA rightly viewed as being inadequate.
And so the FFA board went with the second-best option – or third best if you believe in the strength of the South Melbourne bid.
It has to be said that the winning WMG bid came with a massive upside – the promise of fully funding and building its own stadium to become the first club in the A-League to own and control its own home ground.
In stark contrast to Southern Expansion, WMG had done its homework, had partnered with Wyndham City Council and had the land fully pegged out and ready to develop. However, many questions remain.
In the same article mentioned above, Vince Rugari implored his readers to look up the property on Google Maps. He describes what you’ll find as “a cow paddock in the middle of nowhere”.
He is right of course. The Tarneit railway station is at the very edge of the built-up area, and the location of the new stadium is over two kilometres further west in what can only be described as agricultural land.
The path that has taken us here is even more interesting than the single-lane country path which currently leads to these cow paddocks and haystacks.
The WMG bid started life as Victoria Patriots, with Geelong viewed as its home base. Somewhere along the line, the bid morphed into WMG, having partnered with Wyndham Council, to be located at Tarneit on the outer western fringes of metropolitan Melbourne.
Michael Lynch reported in Saturday’s Age that the essence of this private-public partnership is “value capture”. The council has gifted a parcel of land to WMG not only to build the stadium but to use for commercial and residential development as well.
It’s this extra development which will help WMG defray the cost of building the stadium itself, although I’ve run the numbers across a few optimistic assumptions and in all cases WMG is left with significant debt on the stadium, even after the sale of hundreds of residential dwellings. Hopefully the mysterious, anonymous financial backers have deep pockets.
As far as the council is concerned, in exchange for gifting land that would otherwise have remained unused and of little commercial value, it hopes that WMG’s involvement helps lift the surrounding land values and encourages further development.
In other words, when both WNG and Wyndham coin the phrase ‘growth corridor’, it’s not really referring to what it is now but rather what they hope it might become years down the track.
Mister Football
Roar Guru
oldpsyco P&R is years and years away, at least 10, maybe even 15 years away. Why am I confident in saying that? (apart from Adam Peackock having said something similar in the past week) The club owners have jointly lost hundreds of millions of dollars over the life of the A-League; about half have paid big license fees; they have at least two more license fees to sell, could be four more to sell, could even be more - each license fee is likely to attract a higher bid than the last. But that's only the case if the league stays closed for as long as possible. No one is going to pay a $20 million license fee to then be at risk of being replaced by Hicksville FC the following year just because they topped some semi-pro league. We often look to the MLS for inspiration. Already 24 clubs, aiming to get to 28 clubs, huge license fees being paid - but there is no P&R. It's pretty clear we are moving in the same direction.
oldpsyco
Guest
Does that suugest that should Promotion & relegation come to pass, reasons would still be found to exclude them should they be successful??? And subsequent question; Can Australia football afford to have people with that set a mindset running it? P.S. I am not a South Melbourne fan, Just a fan of the Best Football teams playing A-League rather than the best Franchises!
Brainstrust
Roar Rookie
No tax payers money from Hakoah. The control of Middle Park was gained through merging with Hakoah. So that resulted South Melbourne getting money down the line. In the old days the ethnic clubs were better run and had big crowds, the problem is once the migration stopped from those countries the support started to fade about 20 years after. South Melbourne still had good crowds even in the last seasons of the NSL though and should have been in a better financial position with the large Melbourne Greek community. As far as I saw they won the championships more because of the coaches Ange and Puskas. Because there always seem to be a lot of shenaningans with players leaving the club. They did try to get Makris to fund their A-league bid, now Makris not from Melbourne, and bailed on West Adelaide Hellas knocking them out of the NSL. Then Makris instead of backing an Australian club he goes to Greece, and funded a team, made Ange coach, but then the next bloke who took it over has got him a jail term over a financial dispute and he cant go back to Greece. That may well have been the problem the boom in Greece with the Olympics and created by the endless borrowing, made them focus on investing their money there while it was booming and then it went bust. Its not me that has a problem with South Melbourne just with all the stories and conspiracy theories about them being left out, when the opportunity was there initially at an affordable price.
Brainstrust
Roar Rookie
Well Victory were desperate for cash at the start of the A-league , so not suprising they were asking everyone for money. The ethnic teams were all going broke at the end of the NSL, adding Perth Glory actually created more expenses for the teams flying, accomodation and then the Kingz. In the last year of the NSl wages went down 50%, Power and Glory had the choice players for less. Boutsianis if he had been any good at the end of the NSL he would have sold himself off to Glory or Power, like he soldhimself off to Glory,Kingz,etc. Sydney Olympic were the last ethnic team to do well, they had a big investment of funds with a group of Greek businessmen including Politis but they gave up before the final season after losing a lot of money. A lot more than it would have taken to get into the A-league, but that money was gone. Lowy approached Politis to get him to finance Sydney FC .
Kangas
Roar Rookie
Cambelltown south aust They are the npl champions are they not
con tripodis
Guest
u r all over the shop mate so what if they did not have the funds what does that have to do with today . i know that old comity of south melb ran for the hills when the auditors came knocking that's old news and they did not deserve to get in to the A league not that the A league wanted any ethnic teams it was full stop no ethnic teams . even richer more well run clubs they did not consider marconi !! and that is one great club ,they did not even want ethnic heritage players i was there mate right in the thick off things they VICTORY were hounding me for sponsorship, no Boutsianis with the curling free kicks ,what they did head hunt with hired sprookers was the South Melbourne supporters i was there and i witnessed it first hand
con tripodis
Guest
boy brainstorm u are so misinformed what tax payers money from hakoah that was in 1959, grand prix ,what do u know about our history we got kicked out of middle park and we had a legal lease agreement with the council and jeff kennet wanted the backing of the greek community back than and we were held in high esteem you bag a team that is steeped in Australian history a world recognised team, Australian team of the century you bag us with such venom and hate, yet the migrants build this country and we have nothing but ridicule from people like you, and as for they had no money back then so what who did and those old ways of running clubs are long gone ,long gone, no comparison to how the young Australian business people run teams now, look at south melb now ,how professional they are women's ,junior teams the whole package so i don't know why you need to bag them ,i don't bag the Sydney bids i don't bag the dandy bid if they want to invest money in our game and build stadiums Bring it on the more the better,those who are weak and drop off well thats natural evolution so be it
con tripodis
Guest
ethnic not ethnic what is the difference if a club knows it can pack out its stadium if it backed by people with money to invest, if it represent a community that is fanatical about their soccer and i mean fanatical, then why on earth hold them back ,we call our self's a multicultural society but are governed by redneck laws with our attitudes and selection process ,also people on here comment on too many teams in Melbourne, look at afl they got 9 including Geelong, we are 5 million and growing, so yes too team 11 yes south Melbourne and they chose west Melbourne good luck with that, maybe who knows . People worry about melb city as if we need to provide protectionism for some fickle club with no indentity, city is like flogging a dead horse
Rodger King
Roar Rookie
A point well made Gavan, but will be lost on our Eastern cousins.
Mister Football
Roar Guru
Thank you AW. On South, as I said to Redondo above, such an article is beyond my capabilities. My personal opinion is that they can do nothing to win over the FFA.
At work
Roar Rookie
Good considered read, I look forward to your next article on why SMFC never stood a chance and what they need to do to win the FFA’s love
pakistanstar
Roar Rookie
Guest comment, typical. Betcha Hans follows Barca or Man U because "they're a big club".
Mister Football
Roar Guru
HCF As I laid out early in the article, the FFA's job was to chose one team in Sydney and one team in Melbourne. Full stop. No matter how good Canberra's bid was, it wasn't really in contention. Now that the FFA has got its Fox obligation out of the way, options open up (in the mix, is the possibility that Nix's license will not be extended beyond next season). Deloitte's number crunching (index of potential support) shows that Canberra is just below Adelaide and ahead of Wollongong, Gold Coast and Hobart. Now, if Fox ratings remain important, then that represents bad news for Canberra. The South-East of Melbourne actually has the highest viewership in Australia. Of all the regions covered by the six bids, Canberra has the lowest by far. Also important to state that Brisbane's viewership is in third position (counted as one region).
Mister Football
Roar Guru
Thanks for the comment Pedro. The data shows that WSW has 3,000 members in the Sth West, which is certainly sizeable, but as I said, Parra is some 50km from Campbelltown, which is a decent hike, and the Wanderers' territory in greater Wester Sydney, including the whole of the North-West, is still a very large region. By way of comparison, looking at WMG, it's exactly 58km from Kardinia Park in Geelong to Tarneit Railway Station, and 20km from West Footscray Railway station (right next to Whitten Oval) and Tarneit Railway Station. Looks even more puzzling that WMG would be paying so much attention to Geelong. In truth, none of these three areas feel any close connection with the other. West Footscray is only 7km from Docklands, Geelong is another city, and Tarneit is out in the sticks. Most interesting number is the fact that the Victory has some 5,600 members in SE Melbourne, and that would have counted against Team 11.
Hull City fanatic
Guest
Hi MF I'm curious to know your thoughts on the CBR region bid. It seemed right in contention and even the front runner at times. But sounds like the extra money from Foxtel for the Syd and Melb bids sealed their fate. In the CBR bid's debrief to media they seemed strangely optimistic and mentioned they were meeting with the FFA as early as this week. Do you think there's something they know that's not being mentioned?
Nick Symonds
Guest
Wanderers members in South West Sydney = 2,944 (17%) Sydney FC members in Sutherland, St, George and wollongong = 2,863 (21%) - Victory members in South East Melbourne = 5,594 (32%) City members in South East Melbourne = 2,529 (28%) Total = 8,123 - Victory members in Geelong = 625 (2%) City members in Geelong = 229 (2%) Total = 854 - http://footballtoday.news/features/long-read-unpacking-the-metrics-in-the-a-league-expansion-decision
Brainstrust
Roar Rookie
Basically all you needed to get the A-league Melbourne slot early on in was 2.5 million in the bank and the license fee was deferred, the FFA would have taken anyone, Victory got the nod with only 2 million, but where was South Melbourne. They couldn't pay their phone bill. The FFA helped the underfunded Victory bid by getting Miribella who had his own bid to join them. The other Melbourne united bid had no money and were mistakenly labelled a Melbourne Knights bid it was Horvat and pink haired papparazi guy Lyons which he didnt find a single one. Otherwise the FFa would have stolen them for the Victory bid so FFA had to add their contribution as well and had 10% stake in Victory. Putting in 10% is better than putting in 80-100% for another bidder. So if South Melbourne had raised some cash at that stage, Victory would never have existed, South Melbourne would have taken the spot, and gotten most of the Melbourne support like Victory have, though South Melbourne would have had to be rebranded as well, because it doesn't make sense for the sole Melbourne team to be labelled South Melbourne. Heart unlike Victory were fully funded and were willing to play at AAMI , thats the only proof in the pudding . So basically the second time around you needed 6 million not 2.5 and you already lost 80% of potential supporters to the first team. So where these investors first time around when the bar was low and the rewards were so high. Then third time around City pays 15 million for Heart, and South Melbourne even cashed up by their handout from the government cant match that. Fourth time around its now getting ridiculous to get in.
Nemesis
Guest
So, reading many of the comments on this article, from the usual A-League sniper and his multiple guises, it's pretty obvious the A-League expansion is a failure. The AFL undertakes the most cringe worthy expansion project possible that embarrasses even the Egg Ball community, but the A-League sniper only has positive words for that expansion. Big surprise. Only 2 weeks ago, the person who wrote this article, categorically & unequivocally stated: Expansion will not happen in 2019/20. So, let's not be too concerned about what is written by him.
Pedro
Guest
A very sage article MF, well done! In relation to the aforementioned article I make the following comments. I honestly doubt that there is enough demand for the south west Sydney team to be honest as peeps who live there already go for the Wanderers or Sydney if they are interested in association football. In addition it is a very poor area so less disposable income and it is one of the few areas in this sunburnt land where there is still some interest in NRL. If they are getting average crowds of 10,000 by 2030 I would be surprised, The west Melbourne winning bid appears to be based on potential rather than evidence and I suspect in time the FFA will regret their decision and realise that the Team 11 bid would have been preferable.
Mister Football
Roar Guru
Given the Tarneit team is trying to appeal to the Western suburbs, you don't really want people in the inner West having to travel backwards to Southern Cross so that they can get to Wyndham Vale.