On the Australian rugby estate, the distance between the Castle and the Forrest is big, and growing.
We all know of the huge geographical distance between Sydney and Perth, but there’s obviously a significant philosophical gap between Rugby Australia and Global Rapid Rugby.
So 2019 will deliver Australian rugby a two-speed economy given the revolutionary rule changes and territorial ambitions that GRR have set out against a conservative Raelene Castle-led RA, who understandably are prevented from being too adventurous given they operate under the dreary World Rugby.
What’s the outlook for RA and GRR in a pivotal year for both? Which organisation, RA or GRR, is likely to make bigger strides?
For RA, being a World Cup year means the heat is on. All the planning and preparation since the last tournament in the United Kingdom is meant to come to fruition.
Wallabies fans should’ve expected a few signs over the past 18 months that they could go toe-to-toe with the world’s top teams, but the results have been woeful.
The forecast is pretty gloomy. Nine losses in 13 Tests this season was the Wallabies’ worst year of the professional era.
(Photo by Phil Walter/Getty Images)
The upside is that after such a stinker of a year, the Wallabies surely can’t get much worse.
Not much credence will be given to the abbreviated Rugby Championship; everything is geared towards Australia’s first World Cup game against Fiji on September 21 in the Japanese city of Sapporo.
The Wallabies’ other top-tier nation in their pool is Wales, so they’ll only need wins over Fiji, Uruguay and Georgia to bag a quarter-final berth.
If that eventuates, they’re likely to face either England, France or Argentina.
It’s a decent draw. But given the Wallabies have been so underwhelming recently and RA have opted for stability and not panic mode by sticking with Michael Cheika as coach, Aussie fans are rightly demanding a massive lift.
It’s hard to imagine that an inept lineout, inconsistent scrum and ineffective attack can improve to a point that they can replicate 2015’s spot in the final.
The biggest chance of a stunning turnaround therefore lies with Scott Johnson, who was this week appointed to a new role as RA’s director of rugby.
Part of the reason is to lighten Cheika’s workload. Cheika will be answerable to Johnson.
It doesn’t seem like a staff appointment could translate into the stark surge required to be a World Cup contender, but who knows? The shackles might come off.
But as it stands, the Wallabies are on track for a quarter-final berth and a potential exit there or a semi-final defeat.
Anything more and especially if the Wallabies can play with some swagger and verve, then it’s Johnson that gets plenty of kudos.
(Photo by Atsushi Tomura/Getty Images)
Global Rapid Rugby’s fortunes are intrinsically harder to predict given they’re going into uncharted territory.
Billionaire backer Twiggy Forrest’s team have proposed eight teams from the Asia-Pacific region – the Western Force, Fiji, Samoa, Japan, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore and an as-yet-unconfirmed side from Hawaii – for a competition starting in February.
The territorial expansion is intriguing, but there’s more curiosity in the rule changes.
Penalty goals being reduced from three to two points is a great start.
Kick out on the full inside your 22m area and the lineout’s marked where it was booted to encourage more ball-in-play.
A nine-point power try is awarded if scored from a move starting inside a team’s own 22m area.
No ‘mark’ call in the 22m area.
Reduced time for kick-offs and penalties.
And cutting back game time to 70 minutes.
These are the best of the rule changes. It’s bold, but rugby can do with a shake-up like World Series Cricket and Twenty20 sparked up another conservative sport.
However, despite Twiggy talking up rugby’s growing popularity in the region, it’s hard to imagine a significant surge in crowd numbers and TV viewers.
Given how dire the crowds were in Singapore for the Sunwolves’ Super Rugby matches, is there really the appetite for the sport in Asia, where much of the commercial value lies?
Maybe they just want their own team.
The worry is that there will be too many one-sided games. Even with the rules revolution, uncompetitive matches will make GRR a hard sell.
The fixtures between the Force, Fiji, Samoa and a Japanese side will be the best guide as to which rule changes could potentially be adopted by other competitions around the world.
They will be watching with interest given the game has been rigidly controlled by World Rugby for so long and rule modifications are as unlikely as an Owen Farrell shoulder charge penalty.
Twiggy’s enthusiasm and conviction should be recognised and applauded.
His iron ore credentials are well proven, but if he can sell a slightly different brand of rugby to a lot of superficial fans, his golden touch will be well earned and indisputable.
(AAP Image/Richard Wainwright)
Twiggy is ambitious in wanting to poach a good chunk of the world’s best players.
So there’s a good chance he’ll be swooping midway through the year with a plan to announce some big-name signings just as anticipation is building for the World Cup.
Only when he gets some top-line players in his competition will Twiggy’s GRR have a chance to steal a decent slice of the Australian rugby audience away from Super Rugby.
But if the Wallabies pluck some zest from somewhere and turn it on at the World Cup, then GRR’s second-season prospects look dim – at least for Australian rugby fans.
amband
Roar Rookie
there is no traditional. Silly jerseys, no tribalism. I reckon it would be more popular returning to tradition. I don't like entertainment at rugby either. I go to see rugby.
phil
Roar Rookie
https://www.odt.co.nz/sport/rugby/all-blacks/meeting-could-change-world-rugby
phil
Roar Rookie
The article below was posted on The Otago Times website. If this article below is correct why aren't we hearing it from Rugby Australia? This could be a watershed week for world rugby. A major overhaul will be considered by the top rugby nations in Los Angeles with some reports claiming a privateer is readying itself to take over the game. One British newspaper described it as a "rugby revolution". Proposals apparently include a more even distribution of money to help ease the financial pressure on New Zealand, Australian and South African rugby. Reports are emerging that the World Rugby meeting will discuss a global knockout competition that leads to a World League final. While details are sketchy, a north v south supremacy decider between the Six Nations and Rugby Championship winners is on the table. A "leading pay per view broadcaster" is said to be behind the concept. The Daily Mail also believes a company such as Amazon, a TV rights agency or a private equity firm could be involved. The Daily Mail reported a source as saying: "'The worry is someone is lining up a big deal to take the whole kit and caboodle. "We don't know if it's a rights agency or a broadcaster, or a rights agency working with a broadcaster. "What we are potentially looking at is someone buying international rugby, and taking it off free-to-air television. That would be a great shame but rugby is vulnerable to this kind of change." The newspaper reported another source as saying: "This could change rugby as we know it. "The annual autumn internationals would certainly become a thing of the past, and beyond the potential logistical nightmares, where does this leave the Rugby World Cup?" New Zealand Rugby boss Steve Tew confirmed to Radio Sport that he would attend the meeting. Tew expressed excitement over the potential development of the 12-team World League event, saying it is a way to increase much-needed revenue for NZ Rugby, as it struggles to keep up with the financial might of the north. "I'm going to Los Angeles this weekend for the next World Rugby meetings to discuss that ... pretty exciting times. "If we can make better use of the test matches we already play for – and the view of everybody who's done some sort of research into that area suggests we can by being more meaning to it – then we will," Tew said. "We wanna look after our fans, we wanna look after our players, we wanna look after our competitive advantages, and we need to increase the revenue we've got. And all countries come to the table with similar expectations." The Six Nations broadcasting contract is split between the BBC and ITV until 2021. ITV has the World Cup.
Ex force fan
Guest
"..they just have to admit Northern Europe have leagues that pay better and deal with it..." The long term problem is that neither South Africa, New Zealand or Australia have a big enough rugby market to compete with Europe and South Africa as the biggest market is getting less lucrative. This is the challenge, how do you compete? Do you use test eligibly criteria to discourage internationals for taking up these contracts, do you pay a few players more and secure longer term contracts, do you reduce cost of competition, make your competition more competitive to hold on your top players or do you make your competition more exciting to watch? The key is to attract more money to your competitions especially from new markets outside RSA, Aus and NZ without compromising the game.
me
Guest
I don't get it. Scores were bigger in the 1980s and 90s under the original rules. Maybe the fans like it like that. This is the sport that refused to grow up until 1995, which lost it North England, most of NSW and Queensland and all of North America. Sooner or later they just have to admit Northern Europe have leagues that pay better and deal with it.
Ex force fan
Guest
Hindsight, foresight and insight were available in equal amounts at RA when the dumb decision was made to axe the Western Force. What happened was totally predictable at that time: Twiggy told them what he will do and he did it.
Ex force fan
Guest
You are such an optimist Lano and that on Xmas day! The point is that those that were successful or very unsuccessful seldom repeat the previous year's success or failure and will do better the next year - even if nothing changes. There is a lot of random variables that determine the outcome of test matches - are you willing to bet on #8 rank as I am willing to take a bet that the WB will do better. than #8. And as an ex force fan I despise anything to do with RA.
Jock the sock
Guest
Expect lots of injuries.
Lano
Roar Guru
Now you're taking dirty talk I like on Xmas day...mmmmm.... stats....regression to the mean, or central tendency, occurs with a sufficiently large sample size from a data set with a finite level of variance. So let me tell you where you're wrong to conclude our mean is about 5th - in the last 30 or so years the factors confronting rugby have evolved materially changed - in other words the variances in the data sets make comparisons - like aggregating data over time into a single population - unreliable. The variances in the data set, over time, include, but are not limited to: professional rugby, demographics, ability to change rep country, migration, TV and consumer behaviour, the ARU, composition of the national team, competition from NRL and AFL, school funding, government policy, and probably many more. I'm sorry Elvis and EFF, as much as I'd like to support your statistical treatise being Xmas and all, but the variances are not finite, thy exist within, beaten and across the data. So no regression! Maybe the last 3 yrs is all we can rely on in which case I can say with absolute certainty (r2=1) that we are ranked 8th.
Ex force fan
Guest
The only union that has not publicly backed GRR is RA, even SARU is supporting GRE. Why?
Ex force fan
Guest
We saw in 2018 that the Force got more fans at games than anyone else in Australia including the Reds and Tahs. Before you throw rocks at Twiggy maybe first habe a look at your own glass house.
Ex force fan
Guest
As far as is needed to help Rugby in WA survive. Twiggy made a promise and asked for our support for at least a decade and that is what he will get. However no animals will be harmed....
Mungbean74
Roar Rookie
Nice one! I have a similar scenario to you here in Miyazaki Japan. I’ve seen it gradually building over the past 10-15 years. Let’s build this rugby thing!!!
Sheikh
Roar Rookie
And who is to say that World Rugby didn't suggest some of the law changes? They will at least be monitoring them to see if they work. As with the original ELVs, some changes may be kept, some adapted, and some abandoned if they don't work. But you don't know what works and what doesn't without trying them out. GRR is a perfect testing ground for World Rugby.
Sheikh
Roar Rookie
When Emirates pulled their sponsorship from the Force, they sold sponsorships to individual jerseys. FMG sponsored at least one jersey, and all the reserves (I think). Andrew Forrest was also (personally) a substantial sponsor of the Force's academy. But he didn't need to be a multi-million sponsor of the Force - they got the majority of their money from the ARU, as did the other SR sides. He was an enthusiastic supporter who had a box at the ground.
JSJ
Roar Rookie
There are some really interesting bits in that NZHerald article. Iike these: Cameron Good, explains NZR has signed a memorandum of understanding with Rugby Australia to support Forrest's venture. NZR's position is believed to be there is no point fighting this new competition which is scheduled to feature 14 rounds, 56 games of 70 minutes and rouge rules such as not kicking out on the full. There is also thought that GRR could be a possible fallback option, should South Africa pull out of Sanzaar and head north at any point in the future.""
Bobby
Guest
The rule change I dint like is reducing the game to 70 minutes. That is often the best rugby, when superior fitness kicks in. The first 10 minutes and the last is the exciting part, a bit like sex.
Branch
Guest
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=12181213
Waxhead
Roar Rookie
@ EFF Oh right ...... that would be the 257 fans in Perth and the 3 fans and a dog in China who will see it all so differently :)
andrewM
Roar Rookie
how far do you reckon they'd go? What about fur seals in the second half?