With Wallabies aplenty in an improved squad, the Brumbies are a hot tip to contend in the Australian Conference – but have they done enough to have more of an impact beyond that?
In the sixth part of our 2019 Super Rugby preview series, we put Canberra’s team in the spotlight.
Brumbies
Coach: Dan McKellar
Captain: Christian Lealiifano
Major signings: Pete Samu (Crusaders), James Slipper (Reds), Toni Pulu (Chiefs)
Major departures: Ben Alexander, Andrew Smith (retired), Isi Naisarani (Rebels), Kyle Godwin (Connacht)
Squad
Christian Lealiifano (c), Allan Alaalatoa, Andy Muirhead, Bayley Kuenzel, Ben Hyne, Blake Enever, Chance Peni, Connal McInerney, Darcy Swain, David Pocock, Folau Fainga’a, Henry Speight, Irae Simone, James Slipper, Joe Powell, Jordan Jackson-Hope, Joshua Mann-Rea, Lachlan McCaffrey, Lausii Taliauli, Len Ikitau, Leslie Leulua’iali’i-Makin, Mack Hansen, Matt Lucas, Murray Douglas, Noah Lolesio, Pete Samu, Rob Valetini, Rory Arnold, Ryan Lonergan, Sam Carter, Scott Sio, Tevita Kuridrani, Tom Banks, Tom Cusack, Tom Ross, Tom Wright, Toni Pulu, Vunipola Fifita, Wharenui Hawera
Last season
Won 7, lost 9, finished third in the Australian Conference, tenth overall
A reasonable start to the year was offset by a brutal five-game losing streak between Rounds 9 and 14 that saw the club tumble from eighth in the standings to second-last.
They recovered strongly – even entering the final round as mathematical finals chances – but a 7-9 record and an absence from the playoffs was a fair reflection of where the Brumbies were at in 2018.
Brumbies coach Dan McKellar. (Photo by Kerry Marshall/Getty Images)
Strengths
Despite finishing last season 7-9, the Brumbies were a solid – if not spectacular – defensive unit that kept most of their losses pretty close. David Pocock played no small part there; he missed just four of the 105 tackles he attempted in 2018, to go along with his prowess at the breakdown.
Four of the Brumbies’ nine defeats last year came by a converted try or less, with their game averages for run meters conceded and line breaks conceded in the upper echelons of the league. They also committed the fewest errors or turnovers each game in Super Rugby a year ago.
While Pocock is the undoubted star of the team, Tom Banks’ form last year will have fans hoping he can take another long, Chris Latham-esque stride in 2019 and become one of the competition’s elite backline players.
A couple of their offseason acquisitions look to be low-risk, high-reward affairs, with James Slipper’s quest for redemption and Pete Samu’s first run in Australian domestic rugby raising the ceiling a little.
In any case, while you can raise questions about the cattle in Canberra, the team clearly has the right foundations in place. Don’t underestimate just how far a reliable, mistake-free style of play can take you.
Related
Weaknesses
Kicking, kicking and, furthermore, kicking.
The lack of an available world-class flyhalf harmed the Brumbies significantly a season ago and, unfortunately, they’ve done little to rectify this.
The positional battle between captain Christian Lealiifano and Wharenui Hawera will be one to watch but, eventually, someone needs to produce better figures than the 380 kick metres per game and the goalkicking percentage of 65 (both dead last) that was served up in 2018.
While the Brumbies do put up good numbers in terms of run metres and extended phases, if teams know the Canberrans won’t hurt them by foot, they can load up their defence to deal with the running game.
From a conference perspective, the Brumbies have been slowly shedding international players over the last few seasons, while their closest rivals have been going the other way. The club might unearth some genuine young guns this season – and former Chiefs winger Toni Pulu is an intriguing signing – but they don’t look to have quite enough ready-made star power on hand.
Sam Carter. (Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images)
Prediction
On paper, the Brumbies look to be at least a slightly improved outfit over a year ago. Unfortunately, the nature of any competition means improving on yourself isn’t good enough – you have to have surpassed your opponents as well.
We’re not so sure the Brumbies have done that. They’re good enough to compete in the Australian conference – but can they outperform the established Waratahs and the improved Rebels? Perhaps not.
Given the Australian Conference still appears easily to be the weakest of the three, semi-contender status within it won’t translate to much on the overall standings.
Prediction: Third in the Australian Conference, tenth overall
The Roar’s 2019 Super Rugby preview series
4. Highlanders
5. Chiefs
6. Rebels
7. Sharks
8. Waratahs
9. Jaguares
10. Brumbies
11. Bulls
12. Stormers
13. Blues
14. Reds
15. Sunwolves
MitchO
Guest
Pete Samu will be solid cover for Pocock at 7. Samu is up for super rugby just not quite there for test rugby. He won't be a point of difference but he can plug the hole. They'll get a bit out of Carter and Arnold as locks and should get a lot out of Sio and AlanA. Hopefully CLL's body is back to strength. He should be better than he was last year and at his best is international standard. Muirhead looked good. If 10 and 12 can do okay then the Brumbies are no worse than the other Aussie teams - although the Tahs do seem to be the ones with the scoring power. Quade plays better when a coach believes in him so Wessels is a good fit for getting the best out of Quade. Lets hope it is up to standard. Quade should still be a good super rugby 10 even if his test match days are behind him.
Markus
Roar Rookie
Simone getting his second start at 12 in the trials tonight definitely has him looking like the frontrunner, with Jackson-Hope again listed as a fullback option (behind Banks). It is interesting given how well JJH played in the NRC last year at 12 and how little game time Simone got in the position. Hope Simone goes well with his opportunities. He definitely has the size and skills to impress there, but his defence was pretty atrocious during his time with the Waratahs (100+kg backs not being able to tackle is a bugbear of mine) and really needs to tighten up if he is to make it at Super Rugby level upward.
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
I think Muirhead has to start. I think Pulu, Muirhead and Banks will be our back three. That is one seriously quick and elusive back three.
DNZ
Guest
I am not sure the players are leaving because of McKellar, especially considering the form they were in at the end of last season. They leave because there's more money/better opportunities on offer when Cheika won't play them in the Wallabies. I think the Brumbies showed more than enough on the tail end of last season to give McKellar some benefit of the doubt right now.
Pavid Docock
Guest
Yeah I'm not familiar with Tom Wright and completely forgot that he was part of the squad to be honest. I read some vaguely good things about him. It's good to know there are options for the Brumbies this year for the problematic 12 spot.
Markus
Roar Rookie
Most probably don't know much about Wright as he hasn't played rugby since schoolboys. I saw him in the second half of the Rebels trial at inside centre. He made a couple of simple mistakes (badly forced pass the main one from memory), but pulled off some good line breaks and offloads. He also was impressively quick for an inside back. I'd say he probably is not yet ready to transition straight back into professional rugby as a starting inside back, but watch this space in 2020 onward.
terrykidd
Roar Pro
Good call on Pocock. I am wondering if that neck issue will see him play bugger all rugby this year. Am also expecting every team to target him at the RWC. Hope not but this year could well be the last for Pocock.
terrykidd
Roar Pro
Wright ?? No one mentions him. Does no one rate him??
terrykidd
Roar Pro
I agree with Rugby Wizard in that losing Godwin will hurt, especially in defence. I will say the backline defence will struggle this year without Godwin.
Pavid Docock
Guest
I really like Darcy Swain. He has the right mix of abrasiveness and skill that I admire in a lock. He is also excellent over the ball and in maul defence which are attributes you want in the low row. If he can bulk up a bit that would further improve his claims for a spot in the 23. Fingers crossed he gets an extended chance this season.
Pavid Docock
Guest
I have always liked JJH, but his lack of size has always been the issue. Nobody would question his skill set and commitment in defence. He could be a good back up 10 for the Brumbies. I really hope Irae Simone can kick on this season. I have been a fan of his for the past few years, ever since his influential turn when Norths won the 2016 Shute Shield title. If he can master his defensive frailties and continue to develop a balanced attack he would be a long term solution at 12. His offload game and palm offs are already pretty effective. He could possibly even one day satisfy Australia's desire for a play maker at 12 while also possessing the big body we need in that position.
trytime
Guest
Coaches are the weak links Brumbies and rebel’s will underperform big time, Good squads but zero direction. Rebels underperformed last year- weasels hung up on being mister nice guy to RA and McKellar / well he’s a joke with players leaving all the time!
Rugby wizard
Guest
The main problem with the brumbies is that in too many positions fans are hoping players do well and stay injury free. 1.Valetini can he be consistant and stay injury free. 2.How much games will Pocock play. 3.will hawera kick better. 4.can they find a solid defensive 12. 5.if banks and Kurdrani gets injured can they replace them with quality that wont drop the standard too much. This team will need luck if they are too finish in top 3,but too round it all up there is too much hoping on too many players. Those are 5 points and there probably is more. Looking at the rest of the AUS conference the other teams have much less concerns. Look at the reds,take out kerevi and they can put a centre pairing together of Duncan P. and Sautia. Loose Rodda and there is Hockings They can lose Higgs and still have Timu,Korcyk,Wright,Mcreight,young and former under 20 captain at Hewatt who is at Brisbane city. Can the brumbies cover there stars,I dont think so.
Rugby wizard
Guest
I always rated Godwin highly,he should have been our wallaby 12 after the 2015 WC,since McCabe we have been defensively week at 12 ever since. He is the unluckiest player not to get test starts followed by Coterill,Morahan and Gill. How is Dempsey and Hanigan a better player than Coterill? What makes me even more upset as a wallaby fan is that white,Godwin and Morahan who as teenagers was tipped too be stars had reached that level of potential at a time when they not available for wallabies,Jones is a plus though. Godwin was consistent but for the times he played at 10 he was not good,but so was Horan. The selection policy of Cheika has been poor and we as fans should have noticed it earlier, to initially drop Morahan 2016 after he had a very good season for korolbete who had not even played super rugby,was the real start of wallaby downfall too the point we are now. Read a article mid 2018 that Barnes was considering returning 2019 too super rugby,do you know where he is playing 2019?
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
Valetini played about 1.5 matches and was injured the rest of the time. He looks a great prospect, but I worry that we’re rushing his development. I think Pocock’s neck primarily took a beating in the internationals. I imagine the Brumbies will play him as much as they can.
nutter
Guest
Valentini was pretty good in the game time he good. Physical and mobile. There's also McCaffery and Cusack, neither of whom are Poey but both very handy replacements.
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
Personally, I think Muirhead and Banks should be locks in the back three, with the others fightin for the other wing spot. I hope we opt for a bigger bloke at 12, not yet convinced by JJH there.
jeznez
Roar Guru
Yep, I think that game plan and the coaches ability to implement it will be big drivers of success. Each playing roster in Oz has strengths and weaknesses so coaching may well be the difference. The Brumbies in that respect have the end of season form from last year to draw on.
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
I don’t think we had a reasonable start though. We had some decent matches at the start, but against poor opposition. We didn’t really start playing well until the end of the season.
Mark Richmond
Roar Guru
James.....Hyne is out for the season, did his knee again in Pre season.