It’s been a grim five years for Carlton, with an average final ladder position of 16th since 2014. Ouch.
They’ve won 26 matches in this period from a possible 110, and some people may feel that’s higher than what they thought. The biggest problem is that they’re still going backwards, with a paltry two wins in 2018.
The Blues finished last season with a percentage of 59.3. To provide some context to this figure, the only clubs to record lower in the last 50 years are Fitzroy in their last two seasons back in 1995-96, expansion clubs Gold Coast in their first year (2011) and GWS in their first two years (2012-13), plus Melbourne under Mark Neeld in 2013 when he was sacked mid-season, arguably the most infamous coaching failure this century.
Will this be the year the Old Dark Navy Blues start to make some inroads into the competition? Let’s take a look at the sort of team they’ll be hoping to put out:
B: C.Marchbank, L.Jones, N.Newman
HB: D.Thomas, J.Weitering, K.Simpson
C: S.Walsh, P.Cripps, L.O’Brien
HF: P.Dow, C.Curnow, Z.Fisher
F: H.McKay, M.McGovern, S.Petrevski-Seton
Foll: M.Kruezer, E.Curnow, M.Murphy
Int: M.Kennedy, T.Williamson, W.Setterfield, L.Stocker
Em: A.Fasolo, L.Plowman, J.Silvagni
It must be noted that Sam Docherty wasn’t considered for the squad, given the ACL injury he suffered in the pre-season. Gutting for player, club, supporters and even neutral fans, especially given it was his second in a row.
Dale Thomas went to halfback in 2018 to cover for Docherty’s loss, and should do so again this year. Nic Newman has been acquired from Sydney to also provide run from defence, and the evergreen Kade Simpson goes on for a 17th season. Few players have more respect among the competition than he.
Liam Jones has turned his career around with a solid year and a half in a key defensive post, where he can harness his marking skills in a way he wasn’t able to consistently as a forward. Jacob Weitering is seen to have plateaued after an exceptional first season, but at least the ill-conceived experiment of playing him as a forward appears over.
Caleb Marchbank will be looking to take his game to another level down back, Tom Williamson showed promise in his debut year of 2017 before missing all of last season with injury and Lachie Plowman is also an option as a lock-down defender.
Through the middle, Matt Kruezer needs to play a full season and provide his 2017 form if Carlton are to rise out of the bottom four.
Patrick Cripps is an undeniable superstar, and has redefined beast mode when it comes to winning clearances. He never stops hunting the ball, and he added another weapon last year with his contested marking in front of goal when resting. He only kicked multiple goals twice though, and if he can lift that up to 6-8 times this year, he’ll go to another level again.
Marc Murphy and Ed Curnow are the senior support staff to Cripps in the middle, and we know what we’re going to get frrom these veterans. Outside of these two, it is very much a midfield of the future.
Sam Walsh is the number one draft pick, expected to play and have an impact immediately. The Blues traded up the draft to snare Liam Stocker, so particular interest will be taken in his progress. Paddy Dow and Lachie O’Brien, top ten picks from the 2017 draft, showed glimpses of the players they’ll become last year. Zac Fisher moves nicely, and with three pre-seasons under his belt is a hardy veteran compared to the others.
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Will Setterfield and Matt Kennedy are 21-year-old ex-Giants that much will be demanded of. It really is a brutally young midfield group.
Much has been made of the fact that it’s been two and a half years since Carlton topped 100 points in a game, but they have added potency to their attack in the form of Mitch McGovern and to a lesser extent Alex Fasolo if he can stay fit and find his confidence.
Charlie Curnow is the focal point of the attack and has all the tools to become the best player in the game at some stage. He could well find himself in the discussion for top 10 come season’s end. Along with Cripps, he is a franchise player to build an entire club around, not just a team.
McGovern can prove a valuable partner to Curnow in a key forward post, even if both appeal as centre half-forwards rather than complementary targets. They’ll have to work well together to ensure enough space for the other.
While McGovern hasn’t yet played 50 games, he is at least 24 and offers more experience than Harry McKay, who can continue to learn his craft as the third tall. It was hard for McGovern to be a dominant force at Adelaide in a forward-line of Walker, Lynch, Jenkins and Betts, and we should see his impact grow with more responsibility.
Blues fans should be excited for the possibility of a forward-line where Curnow, McGovern and McKay all click, and they will trouble opposition defenders in the air. This is where they can get some wins.
Crumbing forwards are an issue at the Blues. There is no Matthew Wright this year, who finished top two in their goal-kicking the three years he was on the list. Outside of him no smaller player kicked more than eight goals last season.
Sam Petrevski-Seton could be a player to add some bite inside 50, but Brendon Bolton will surely want him around the ball a bit more. Jarrod Pickett and Jarrod Garlett haven’t looked up to it. Jack Silvagni moved to defence last season, and it’s hard to know where he is at.
Carlton will need a lot to go right to make a jump up the ladder, even though the club is counting on one given they traded their first pick and will take Adelaide’s Round 1 pick to the draft. The worst case scenario is that Carlton wins the wooden spoon and Adelaide the premiership.
But this is a club about the future. 12 of the best 22 named above come from the last four drafts, so the nucleus is there. And that doesn’t include Cripps and McGovern who are still only 24 and could well have eight-to-ten years ahead of them.
Developing these young players on the training track is obviously critical, but so is the balance of getting them to learn on the field without burdening them with too much responsibility and either jilting their confidence or cooking them.
It’s hard to be bullish on the Blues, as they are still taking baby steps due to list construction. The patience of fans is being tested. The rest of the football world barely remembers they exist.
Prediction: 17th
Preview series
17. Carlton
18. Gold Coast
Macca
Roar Rookie
Hey Cam, I just did a tally for the number of games played for Carlton of that best 22, the total is 221 or an average of just of 10.
Grant McLean
Guest
Did you just find what you wrote last year and get a photo copy,joke????????????
SydneyBlue
Guest
Bolton and Silvangni need to stay. History has repeatedly shown that sticking with your coaching hierarchy delivers long term success. We do it worse than anyone else we love hanging on to underperforming players for years longer than we should. We have also made shocking coaching decisions ie Malthouse for Ratten. Although purely speculation we would be in a much better position if we had stuck with ‘Rats’.
JamesH
Roar Guru
I'd like to think that the salary cap exclusion would be conditional - i.e. if the AFL is going to grant that concession, they would need to approve to individual(s) and the value of the exclusion in advance of any deal being struck. There could also be other aspects built into the recruitment, such as the ambassadorial role that was mooted for Lynch at one point. It would be an absolute waste to just throw money at average players. I think we can agree that that's not a solution to anything.
Cameron Waterhouse
Guest
The very fact that you even bothered to write such a piece of junk article even if it is to dig the boots in, shows that most of the football world does know they exist!!! Cameron, with a name like that you should be way smarter...you’ve clearly shown that you are either a Geelong supporter or a Hawk!! And, you’ll never find a Carlton supporter wasting our time writing about them ????????????????
Macca
Roar Rookie
My issue is that if you give the Suns extra money for mature players they will tend to spend it, so they will start off offering big dollars to an elite player who will turn them down and they will just keep offering the same money to worse and worse players until someone jumps at the money, and they won't be there to drive the playing group, but just to bank a pay cheque.
JamesH
Roar Guru
Does Stuey Dew not have any connections he can draw on at Sydney or Hawthorn? I won't deny the influence of Fagan or (apparently) Russell. It's still hugely important, though, having finals-hardened peers driving the playing group and setting standards from within. My perception from outside the club is that Gold Coast badly needs this. Finding the right person would be tough - and it might not happen in 2019 - but if they nail it, it could have such a critical impact (and a more immediate one than more draft picks would have) on the club.
Macca
Roar Rookie
JamesH - And you only have to google what the young Carlton players are saying about Russell. The point is you don't have to go out and overpay a mature player who is only going to be around for a year or two to get "culture" or "education". On top this you are correct that "Hodges don’t grow on trees". Hodge is a great leader and isn't up there on massive coin. His motivation was to help out a mate in the coach. I don't think you will get the same results from a player who is being paid 50% more than he is worth. "But the right person can have a huge impact on a young group that has become too used to losing." To me that person is the Lions coach more than Hodge.
JamesH
Roar Guru
Again, it’s not about the win/loss record at this point (although that has actually improved a bit from a very low base). And you are massively underestimating what Hodge has done at the club outside of the four quarters on gameday. What I am suggesting is a big part of actually getting their off-field stuff sorted. A couple of guys who understand what success looks like and can set standards within the playing group. You only have to google what the young Lions are saying about Hodge’s influence on them and how eye-opening his standards are. Of course, Hodges don’t grow on trees and good drafting is still required. But the right person can have a huge impact on a young group that has become too used to losing.
Macca
Roar Rookie
The point is everyone raves about how great Hodge has been yet the actual results didn't really change. In 12 months he will be gone and it will be up to the players the Lions have drafted to make the club successful. And I think Hodges influence is over rated, the lions have drafted smart, taking players with the attributes and personal connections to make them want to stay at the club and see it succeed. I agree on getting the right players to create the right culture but that doesn't have to be a clapped out 34 year old, the blues have drafted players with get "leadership" qualities and high professionalism to help drive that culture. They have gone out and got Russell from the Hawks to really drive that culture, they have got Bolton and Liddell, the have got SOS. IF the Suns get their off filed right (one of the big issues with the initial launch) and rely on off field staff who are there long term to build the culture and draft high quality people (not just high quality footballers) it will lead to much greater gains than overpaying players at the end of their careers. Hence my thoughts that draft picks (especially after a big haul last year) will be the more valuable commodity for them (and hey if they can convince a mature player to come then they can use the draft pick to trade).
sammy
Guest
I dunno, why not ask Phil Davis or Nathan Bock - both left the crows due to the massive money the crows could not compete with and both said as much - no hard feelings guys but 400K per year or 850K per year that Davis was getting when he left to join GWS. I was quite specific is saying some won't leave for money but some certainly will
JamesH
Roar Guru
What point are you trying to prove with those stats about the Lions? All I'm saying is that the right players could help create the right culture and give young players the desire to invest. You can't deny that Hodge has been a big part of that for the Lions so far (well, you can but you'll sound ridiculous). Winning 5 games and finishing 15th in his first year doesn't matter a jot in this context, so long as it feels like the club has turned a corner and is building something. As for Goddard - yes, he came for success, not money & a rebuild. I was just throwing him in as an example of how an experienced head can help to shape an inexperienced group. He was a bit younger when he first turned up though.
Macca
Roar Rookie
I wasn't complaining about the discussion on the Suns, simply observing the irony. Discussions evolve, I find it hillarious that people get offended when they do. Hodge has been at the Lions for a year and they finished 15th winning just 5 games. I doubt he will be their beyond this year. Goddard went to what he thought was a big club from St Kilda, not going from Melbourne to a basket case, and the Bombers didn't win a final in his 6 years there.
JamesH
Roar Guru
Ironic, given that the Suns thread became a Carlton one! It would have to be the right players, guys who could actually set standards and show leadership. Hodge has been excellent for the Lions. Goddard - for all the flak he copped - was crucial for the Bombers through the supplements saga. I'm surprised that the Suns (and to a lesser degree, Carlton - see? I'm still talking about the Blues!) didn't go harder at Jarrod McVeigh last year. David Astbury is out of contract in 2019 and at 28 will probably qualify as a free agent. If the Tigers win another flag and he's interested in a coaching future then he might be convinced to go for significantly more $.
Macca
Roar Rookie
So the Suns will become a stop off before you retire to top up your super, doesn't sound like a long term plan o me. And am I supposed to be complaining about discussing the Suns on a Carlton thread. ;)
Raimond
Roar Guru
History shows that teams usually take a long time to gel. The problem for the Blues is that they really aren't a destination club these days.
JamesH
Roar Guru
…which they would need more $ to do, hence sitting 50% of their salary outside the cap. Forcing draftees to go to GC hasn’t worked so well to this point, and that won’t change until young players see something exciting building at the club. As for Lynch, May, Saad et al – they are young(ish) players who left a weak club to look for success. The free agents GC needs to target would be older players who have come from a successful culture and aren’t desperate to win a flag in their last few seasons. Chalk and cheese.
JamesH
Roar Guru
Lol I'm not saying that at all. I'm saying that in roughly 50% of Carlton's home games against lower ranked sides they will not have any major home ground advantage, because those sides will be Melbourne-based and won't have to travel. Conversely, every home game Freo has against another lower ranked side will involve that side travelling across the country, increasing the odds Freo will win those matches. As I also said, that's offset by the travel Freo has to endure for away games compared to Carlton. But, in general terms, at least they can bank on a certain number of home wins to keep them out of the cellar. Carlton can't, except against Gold Coast. You keep assuming I'm having a crack at Freo, or suggesting they have it easier than Victorian teams. I'm doing neither.
Col from Brissie
Roar Guru
AD, club stating that he got a knock to the knee and the reason he was taken off was simply precautionary.
Liam Salter
Roar Guru
Macca, I saw on 9News (from memory) that Marc Murphy has injured himself in the scratch match, or that there were concerns that he had. Knee problem supposedly. Not entirely ideal, hey? Edit: a quick twitter search sees that it’s not that serious. he sat out the fourth term icing his knee, it’s probably best to chalk this one up to an eager journo sensationalising the story.