It’s easy to make pre-season predictions on who you think might be a premiership contender, who might have certain weaknesses. But you can never be certain what’s going to happen until Round 1 gets underway.
There are always sides that jump up from the bottom eight and start to contend for top-four positions, and you’ll never be too sure what kind of changes any teams have made until you see them in Round 1. So, getting any sort of bold prediction correct isn’t easy – it can make you look a bit silly, too.
That said, there are five teams I’ve got my eye on this year; clubs who’ll be right in premiership contention.
Richmond Tigers
After winning so many games last year, it’s no surprise Richmond are a strong chance of staying right up at the top of the ladder in 2019.
What stands out as a real strength of theirs is how well they’ve developed a game plan around their list – they play it to a tee.
By all reports, they’ve had an injury-free run at the pre-season with close to 40 players on the track. That makes such a difference; with everyone fit, you can start to hone in on the adjustments and improvements you want to make to your game plan, and they’ve already got a very good one. When they’ve got players fit and firing, they’ll be damaging.
Of course, they’ve managed to add an unbelievable player to their list in Tom Lynch. Given he’s been able to play to such a high level at the Suns, even when they were really struggling, expect him to have an excellent year with Richmond.
Lynch will fit well in their system, as they like to kick long inside 50 and provide a contest. Jack Riewoldt does that really well already, and Lynch will add another dimension on that front, giving them two of the best key forwards in the game who suit their game plan. If they’re not marking the ball and kicking goals, they’ll bring it to the feet of some pretty elusive small forwards, so he’ll slot in nicely.
The ex-Gold Coast skipper’s arrival is just another reason they’ll be the hardest team to beat this year.
(Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
Melbourne Demons
Melbourne are another team that, with their natural progression and development, are looming as a strong contender.
Their real area of strength is in the middle of the ground; their midfield looks as good as anyone else’s. They’ve got Clayton Oliver, Angus Brayshaw, Christian Petracca and Nathan Jones, and Max Gawn, one of the two best ruckmen in the competition, to go alongside them.
The new 6-6-6 starting position rules could give the Demons a big advantage, given there’s going to be a lot more space around centre bounces. Opposition forwards are not going to be able to come in and help out as much, because they’re further back inside 50, and teams can’t start with a number behind the ball now.
That’s significant – a lot of sides used to throw a spare man in defence straight away against Melbourne because Gawn gives his midfielders first use. With a bit more space opening up in the middle of the ground now, they’re probably the team that’s going to get that early field position more than any other.
On top of their midfield strength, Melbourne also have their key positions covered at both ends of the ground. Their backline is strong, with Michael Hibberd and now Steven May, Tom McDonald has turned into a genuine gun forward, and there’s some development to come from the likes of Bayley Fritsch.
They’re just a dangerous team right across the park.
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Collingwood Magpies
Collingwood probably played to a level even they wouldn’t have thought themselves capable of last year. They’ll take a lot of confidence out of that, and will be setting their sights really high for 2019.
Much like Melbourne, the Magpies have an exceptional midfield-ruckman combination. Brodie Grundy is right up there alongside Gawn as one of the top two ruckmen in the competition, then you’ve got Adam Treloar, Taylor Adams and now Dayne Beams working around him.
Again, with more space in the middle of the ground thanks to the rule changes, they’re going to get great field position from the centre bounce. With a team that can spread really hard away from the contest, look for them to really open up the game this year.
And I’ve said that without even mentioning Scott Pendlebury and Steele Sidebottom.
I never had to match up against Sidebottom much, but I did spend a bit of time playing on Pendlebury, and for a fair period he was my favourite opposition player.
With his ability to find targets out of traffic, you can’t afford to give him half a metre. But what’s underrated about him is he’s a really strong two-way runner. He’s damaging when he’s got the ball, but also accountable to his opponent – that’s exactly the type of player you need to win big games.
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Sydney Swans
A lot of people probably question where the Swans will head, given we didn’t pick up too many, or any, high-profile players over the off-season.
But we had three or four important guys missing for the majority of last year: Sam Reid, Sam Naismith, Callum Mills and Lewis Melican, who’s an underrated player – he’s going to be a really strong key defender for a long period of time.
If we can add those players back into the team, it’s like picking up four new recruits.
One other player who everyone will want to hear about is Lance Franklin.
He amazed me last year, knowing what he was going through with his body. There’d be times, late in the week, when we’d be thinking, “Well, we can’t possibly play him,” and then he’d come out and dominate. He ended up being named All-Australian captain, and it really is astonishing given the challenges he had to overcome.
Buddy’s coming off a pretty significant bit of surgery post-Christmas, so it’s been a slow build-up to the season. But he’s capable of coming back from a very limited pre-season and still playing at a very high level, and is progressing well from his injury.
On top of our experienced players like Lance, there’s also the natural progression of younger players who’ve played a lot of footy in the last couple of years to factor in, too.
The Swans have had almost 20 players make their AFL debut in the last three years, and a lot of them have already got a fair few appearances under their belt – just look at guys like Ben Ronke and Tom McCartin. Then there are some new draftees who are impressing out on the track – James Rowbottom and Justin McInerney spring to mind there.
A lot of people will think Sydney have been up for a long period of time and they’ve got to drop down, we think that there’s still a lot of improvement left in the list, and that our best 22 looks as good as most others.
(Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)
GWS Giants
The Giants are another team that you can’t rule out given the number of quality players they still have on their list. Everyone’s been talking about the losses they had during the trade period with Tom Scully leaving for Hawthorn and Dylan Shiel heading to Essendon, but they’ve been developing a lot of younger players underneath that top tier of talent.
On top of that, they still have some real A-graders on their list – just look at the likes of Stephen Coniglio, Josh Kelly, Toby Greene, Jeremy Cameron and Callan Ward.
If they can all stay healthy, their best 22 looks just as good as anyone else’s. Of course, that’s been an issue for GWS recently – they’ve been smashed by injuries in the last three seasons or so. But if they can keep their best team together, or even something that closely resembles that preferred line-up, they’ll be hard to beat.
The Giants’ real strength is their ability to cover the ground. They’ve got some truly elite runners who, in addition to having a great tank, are also skilful.
They’ve always been a naturally formidable attacking team, but as the years have progressed – and there’s no doubt their coaching staff are driving this really hard – they’ve improved the defensive side of their game.
At some stage, that’s going to get to a point where they’ve found the right balance between both sides of their game, and when they’ve perfected that, they’ll be even more of a force to be reckoned with.
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Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
Just read your article. 2 out 5 probably not that good. At least your current team is one of them.
Non sequitur
Guest
Your issue with commentators is they watch and rate other teams - not just WCE. This has always been an issue with WCE supporters as they dont really understand there are 17 other clubs in the como. If you want to hear nothing but people talking up the WCE thars what 6pr and ch 7 perth (both WCE sponsors i might add) are for. Seriously you guys sound like Essendon supporters someti.es and thats a pretty bad thing...
Rob
Guest
2016 Subiaco Oval WCE beat Melb by 6 points. 2017 Subiaco Oval Melb beat WCE by 3 points 2017 WCE score 1 goal more than Melb throughout the season and finish 0.5% points higher. 2018 Optus Stadium Melb beay WCE by 17 points (2 goals in final 2 mins otherwise less thasn a goal again). 2018 prelim was glitch in the mateix. These two sides are very evenly matched and both will be wokrth watching in 2019... i wonder if he wasnt trying to talk up the NSW clubs?
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Peter McConville?
Macca
Roar Rookie
Better than Dermie (which is Surprising given I was about 19 and weighed 75kg at the time) but it definitely shook me and my impact in the game dropped off. My best mate was at CHB at the time and I have never let him forget he let Yeates by him to take me out. He also let Gary Rohan’s Dad slip him to clean me up as well!!
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Yeatesy took you out Macca! How'd you pull up from that?
Macca
Roar Rookie
As do I Pete, but you and I have watched a few more than just 28 years of football, and probably played a few more games, than the good Doctor. Actually one of my claims to fame is that I was cleaned up by Mark Yeates coming in off the square. I had had a pretty decent first term playing off a half back flank and Yeates was playing at CHF for the opposition. At the first bounce of the second their ruckman got the tap forward and I came in off the square and was just picking up the ball when Yeates ran from CHF towards the wing and took me out. But if course, according to the Doc, that could not have happened because a player couldn't come in of form the square and impact the clearance.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
I certainly recall Mark Yeates rushing sideways to take out Dermie at the centre bounce. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h8X_O4ajyzE
PriddisJunior
Roar Rookie
I'd add seeing what cats can do with their foreard line set up, last yrs could only kick bags vs scrubs. Danger peaking again should be a good enough reason though.
Doctor Rotcod
Roar Rookie
It's a head in the sand thing with some commentators, a) who don't want to believe that Richmond didn't get to the GF,(but they were the best team all year...) or that b) the Pies,hanging on for grim life in the GF,didn't actually win. Not everyone thinks this way but cognitive biases rule and the idea that a team from the sticks could not only match but actually beat the best that Victoria had to offer is anathema to many. I see some commentators forecasting a 21-1 season for the Tigers,despite them playing poorly away from home and facing GWS,Pies and Melbourne in the first six rounds. Convenient for them that they don't face the Eagles till Rd 22 I have followed the Eagles from the Indian Ocean days and the scarcely believable rules they had to follow that no other team had imposed on them. I watch and believe every game and reckon that back to back is a thing. If Fyfe wants a beast in the midfield, Naitanui is back round 8 or 9 No other team strikes me as being that much better than the Eagles,so it's going to be game by game against the better sides and tempered optimism against the other 12 or 13
Macca
Roar Rookie
Show me where I said “mass rushing”. In fact I specifically requested you define a mass rushing, because it was your term not mine. And when I do go back to the start of the conversation your exact words were “What will happen though: any clean ball achieved by the followers will result in more one-on-one targets, coupled with more space to kick into” not even close to the same as “I do, however, potentially see more space for them to run into should they get free” but if it helps you thinks you were right then go for it. Oh and in all your talk of Mew charging in off the line you missed the big one from 1989, Yeates on Brereton. not exactly an epic failure.
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
Macca, in 28 years I have never seen mass rushing to the contest like you have suggested. None of your examples show this and the only single example where this did occur, by ‘one’ player, ended in epic failure. Go back to he start of the conversation. I said space will be freed up forward of the contest, not at the contest, well before your latest BS about a belated concession. Now you have been proven wrong on every count by your own silly examples, none more so than your 89 GF effort. Great job on that one! I’m sure you’ll continue wasting your time, and you may even find a few examples of a single player reaching the contest causing chaos. You have 150+ years of football to draw upon. What you won’t find is mass rushing to the contest, nor it happening on a regular basis but good luck with your little project. We are done here.
Macca
Roar Rookie
Bews is an !d!ot? And again, my original point was “Big difference is the half forwards and half backs can’t stand on the edge of the square and rush in. Players who get the clean centre clearance aren’t confronted by a wall of players rushing towards them but instead can run forward and hit up targets.” The speed the come in is irrelevant, the fact they do come in creates a barrier to the mid exiting out through the front of the square. The first bounce of the 2016 GF shows a line of 6 players about 7m in from the edge of the square for example. And the extra distance the players have to travel and the inability to create out numbers make it highly unlikely players will be running into the square under the new rules.
Macca
Roar Rookie
You claimed "I've never seen a wall of players rushing towards the followers" and yet here we have it, it doesn't matter that Mew (not Bews) messed up, you are wrong because it happened, just as it has happened many many times.
Macca
Roar Rookie
Doc - This is what I posted originally, "Big difference is the half forwards and half backs can’t stand on the edge of the square and rush in. Players who get the clean centre clearance aren’t confronted by a wall of players rushing towards them but instead can run forward and hit up targets" (which sounds a lot like your belated concession "I do, however, potentially see more space for them to run into should they get free or have more open options up front.") This doesn't require the players to get to the contest, simply run into the square and "confront" the players as they try to exit. You claimed you have never seen it in 28 years and yet repeatedly we have players have players running into the square (something which is odd given you have asserted given the percentages would dictate they wouldn't be standing back to where it is most likely the ball will go). But again we have Stevie J, .Fyfe, Brad Scott, Paul Roos and many others all categorically stating it will give on ballers more space at the centre bounce and the JLT seems to bar this out.
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
And they may well still run into the square, despite the new rules. At no stage have I ever said players don’t run into the square to provide options. What they won’t be doing, and never have, is provide congestion on a regular basis at the contest like that i#d!ot Bews tried doing.
Macca
Roar Rookie
Not arguing that he wasn't, but he still managed to force Bews to kick across his body on his left under pressure. Also, 2015 Grand final 6 players come in off the front of the square as the ball is cleared at the first bounce, 2016 Grand final 18 players betweenthe the centre (12 aroudnthe cente circles) and roughly four metres inside the centre square in the direction the ball was going at the first bounce. Just seems that every Grand Final I can find footage for seems to have large numbers of players running in of the edge of the square, strange that in these big games the coaches aren't playing the percentages.
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
Yes, and none of those extra players were at the contest. I have no idea why you are continuing to prove my point. I’m not arguing whether players run into the centre square and provide options like in this example. I’m simply saying your ludicrous notion of Usain Bolt speed to the contest just does not occur on a regular basis nor is it effective. As such, I don’t see this new rule providing any extra space for the followers at the centre bounce like Stevie J is suggesting. I do, however, potentially see more space for them to run into should they get free or have more open options up front. Now you’ve proved me right with your only two examples. You got anymore for me?
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
Turn it up, Macca. He was running too fast. The footage is quite clear.
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
But I’m not wrong in this instance now am I? Bews messed up because he was running too fast, just like I said.