Going back through the last six World Cup winning teams, every side has opted for big-bodied, tall and powerful players at both number 8 and blindside flanker.
These players have been capable of contributing at the line out and running the ball in heavy traffic.
In the 2015 World Cup the All Blacks used Jerome Kaino (195cm and 109kg) and Kieran Read (193cm and 111kg).
Read and Kaino were also the All Blacks’ 6 and 8 in the 2011 World Cup.
The 2007 World Cup-winning Springboks opted for Danie Rossouw (198cm and 119kg) and Juan Smith (196cm and 112kg).
England won the 2003 World Cup with Lawrence Dallaglio (193cm and 112kg) and Richard Hill (108kg).
Australia won the 1999 World Cup with Toutai Kefu (191cm and 113kg) and Matthew Cockbain (197cm and 105kg).
South Africa won the 1995 World Cup with Mark Andrews (201cm and 116kg) and Ruben Kruger (188cm and 101kg)
When playing the Pooper, the Wallabies can at best seek to be adequate in the line out, through a tall third loosie. The Wallabies will never have a dominant or world-class line out with the Pooper.
Additionally, none of the Wallabies’ powerful ball-runners are tall players that can be lifted quickly in the line out, meaning that the Wallabies will be stuck with either three heavy players that are slow to be lifted if someone like Salakaia-Loto is played at flanker; stuck without a ball-runner if someone like Simmons is picked at flanker as he can be quickly lifted; or stuck without a good line out target if someone like Caleb Timu is picked at 8.
The Wallabies tried to break from this recipe in the 2015 World Cup final, by playing the Pooper and the All Blacks picked off the Wallabies’ line out at will.
If it didn’t work in 2015, with Scott Fardy a much better line out target and complimentary player to the Pooper, is it likely to work in 2019, when neither Hooper or Pocock are as good as they were in 2015?
David Pocock is better than Mike Hooper. Simple. (AP Photo/Matt Dunham)
Fortunately, the tired argument that ‘there is no one else’ is being dispelled in 2019, and Pocock has been more or less constantly injured, while Hooper has not been in form.
Cheika has a variety of 6s and 8s playing well to select from in 2019.
I think the ideal back-row was that fielded by the All Blacks in the 2011 and 2015 World Cup finals.
They had one smaller player who was excellent at the breakdown, a great defender and a skilled link-man, Richie McCaw.
They had one wider-ranging player with fantastic ball-skills, who was a good ball-runner in tight and fantastic at running in the wider channels, as well as a great line out jumper, Kieran Read.
Finally, they had one bigger, more powerful player who was a devastating defender and powerful ball runner, as well as a good line out jumper, Jerome Kaino.
When uninjured Pocock is by far Australia’s (and probably the world’s) breakdown exponent, he is also our most skilled link-man option, despite being slower than Hooper. While Hooper has a fantastic work-rate, is very quick and a good ball-runner.
Both of these players can play 7, and play it well. I would opt to start Hooper and bring Pocock off the bench in the easier matches; I would start Pocock and have Hooper on the bench in the matches against more difficult opponents.
Which Australian player could try and fulfil the criteria of being a wider ranging, skilled runner and passer, while also being a strong defender and a line out target?
Richie McCaw. The best. (AP Photo/Rick Rycroft)
It seems to me that this is a competition between Jack Dempsey and Lachlan McCaffrey. Both players are able to be lifted quickly into the air and have good technique when lifted. There is the added bonus that both Dempsey and especially McCaffrey contribute well at the breakdown.
Dempsey (191cm and 109kg) is tested at the international level and was excellent in some of his 2017 Tests for the Wallabies. But since returning from injury in the National Rugby Championship last year has struggled to replicate this form. While his lack of impact on the Wallabies’ spring tour could be explained away due to him just returning from injury, it is concerning that this lack of impact has largely continued in Super Rugby 2019.
McCaffrey (194cm and 108kg), meanwhile, while untested at international level is the big improver of 2019. Last year he was reasonable without being a standout for the Brumbies. This year he has been the Brumbies’ best player in every match he has played, aside from Christian Lealiifano’s heroic effort against the Chiefs.
I would not necessarily go so far as to say he is currently Australia’s standout Super Rugby player, but I wouldn’t argue against anyone who claimed he was.
McCaffrey, while not having immense power, is skilful, quick and has good feet in attack. He is good at making mini breaks past defenders in-tight and can link well with the backs out wide. He also makes good decisions.
His on-the-run cutout pass over the top of a defender to Chance Peni for his try against the Chiefs is an example of his good vision, decision making and ball skills. He is also comparable in size to both Read and Taulaupe Faletau (189cm and 110kg), two of the world’s premier number 8s. Whether he has what it takes to step up to the international level remains to be seen, but on present form, he has to be the frontrunner.
Now, which player can be the ball-running blindside flanker that is top class in the line out that the Wallabies need?
Despite some improvements in the off season, Ned Hanigan cannot fulfil this role. He still has moments of defensive lapses, such as allowing Samu Kerevi to score a try untouched when he picked the ball up from halfback. Additionally, in his performance against the Brumbies he was ragdolled at times. He lacks the strength required for the international level.
Ned Hanigan of the Wallabies. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
At present, Isi Naisarani (195cm and 110kg is the only realistic option playing in the back-row. Scott Higginbotham, while fantastic in the line out does not have the tight work-rate or the form, Caleb Timu (190cm and 112kg) is currently not demonstrating enough and is not good enough in the line out.
While Naisarani lacks some footwork to beat defenders, like Billy Vunipola or Tevita Kuridrani he is powerful in terms of bending the line when ball-running in tight. He hits hard in defence and is good in the line out. He is also very quick in the wider channels and possesses ball skills.
Both Jed Holloway (195cm and 116kg) and Luke Jones (197cm and 111kg) are players capable of playing in the back-row, but unfortunately both are playing at lock right now. Either would make a massive contribution to the Wallabies’ line out, but it is difficult to see them as realistic options until they are playing back-row for their Super Rugby teams. Perhaps they could be trialled at 6 in some Rugby Championship matches, and hopefully Adam Coleman’s return forces Jones to 6. Holloway’s work rate is a concern and needs to improve.
The Wallabies have options for their back-row in 2019. At present, I would say that Naisarani and McCaffrey should be the favourites for the 6 and 8 jersey. Their additions would mean the Wallabies have four good line out jumpers, tight and wide ball-running and good breakdown abilities.
If Jones or Holloway play in the back-row, Timu or Higginbotham improves, or Dempsey returns to his 2017 form things will be looking even better.
The Wallabies are finally in the position where they can move past playing the Pooper, return to the tried and true recipe for a successful back-row and recover from Cheika’s disastrous decision to move on from Scott Fardy in 2016.
If selections are correct, the Wallabies can have a line out competitive with the rest of the world, generate go-forward when carrying and to have fast players capable of linking with the backs.
The players are there, Cheika, will you pick them?
ScottD
Roar Guru
I must confess I have always supported moving to a traditional 8 that is a bit more intimidating than Pocock and can bullock his way over/through oppositions and also be a lineout option but that isn't my criticism of Pooper. My criticism is that it was a tactic that worked well for a little while until opposition teams worked out how to counter it. Now, it doesn't work at all and Cheeks needs to find another sneaky thing to get the edge. In RWC 2015, the AB's simply ran at Pocock so that he had to tackle. This meant that the WB's most effective pillager was nullified. Since then, everyone else has also applied that tactic. Simple yet effective. Pocock at 7 with someone like a Naisarani at 8 would be a better option as it then makes David available more than not to win the ball at the breakdown.
pogo
Guest
agree
Cadfael
Roar Guru
As I commented, he would give utility value on the bench, picking a seven on the bench is a waste. Three of the bench have to be front rowers so versatility is needed together with a lock on the bench.
Rat
Roar Rookie
PK,abs correct.Hooper and Beale are international 'finishers' at abs best.
Rat
Roar Rookie
Higgas out of form....you obs didnt watch his performance on Sat in Japan.
Rat
Roar Rookie
Thats not fair on Hannigan or us.He should never have got near a Wallaby jersey,and nothing has changed.His biggest challenge is staying on his feet as he attempts to get around the field. So,if he is in,all the real talent that has been identified here has been ignored again by Cheika ,and we have our answer about at least one of the new panel or probably both.
Timbo (L)
Roar Guru
I think the "Hoops has a big engine and can go for 80 minutes" is a bit of a misnomer. With a 5-3 bench, one lock and either the 8 or 6 will play 80 minutes, half the backs go 80 minutes too. The Job of a forward incredibly taxing. Lifting in a lineout, pushing a scrum or maul, and in my personal experience, the hardest of all - the cleanout - you have run half way across the field, at speed and now you are expected to move or resist 80-100kg of beef. Try that at your local gym. So, here is the question: What role does Hoops play in the Wallaby and Tahs sides? In my observation, he does most of his defensive work at 12, like a 12 and attacking from 10,12 and near the wing. He is well suited to this, and great at it. But built into this, is down time -fatigue management. Unlike the rest of the forwards, he isn't on all the time. A traditional Drive has the forward pack trucking it up the middle, "earning the right to go wide". We don't see Hoops doing that. The asset of his speed is recognized and used sparingly. An ideal player for Cheikaball's attacking and defending demarkation, but in a modern game, the backs are expected to do their own ruck protection and pilfering, the need for a specialist skill set like this is no longer required. So, in summary, Hoops is a great player in the role that he has been playing, but in my opinion, there are many players that would be better at #7 and as you point out, the precious #20 bench back row/emergency lock impact utility. When Hunt played 2 weeks ago, he shone doing many of the roles that Hoops usually plays.
Cadfael
Roar Guru
To be fair to Hanigan, he has played much better this season. He looks like he's also put a bit of weight on. I would pick him on the bench as he can cover 4,5,6 and 8
Luke Ringland
Guest
What's your Buddhism book Fionn?
Neil Back
Roar Rookie
Dirty trick quoting The Geech and Henry at me ;) Not sure that's the whole story either Nic. He was picked there in '97 because he was playing as a 7 at the time - he pretty much didn't after that tour for the rest of his International career. He was only put to 7 by Henry in '01 because Back was injured for the first test - he was back to 6 when Back returned for the second. And let's not forget there was a third Lions series in '05 where a world cup winning coach had him at 6 too! Sure he could play 7 - but by 2003 he wasn't playing as a 7 anymore and I still contend, England never looked like they were playing two 7's in the way Wales and Australia do. Anyway, park that. You referred in a previous thread to Navidi and Tipuric's amazing 6N stats. I wonder how they stack up against Curry and Wilson/Shields? For me, and without doing the analysis, Curry looked the stand out 7 in the tournament.
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
The number 8 doesn’t have to be a ‘great’ line out option. In fact, they are usually just adequate. He was used last year, despite the fact that 8s called have been called into the squad. Maybe Hansen won’t pick him there, but Hansen leaves after this year, and I can certainly see next year’s coach opting to do it. I’m not sure what point you’re trying to make.
Ben
Guest
Funny you say he could easily add some weight. Being in Aus I guess you arent privvy to a lot of the media clips here in NZ. But its an ongoing thing for Ardie who says he has problems putting on weight and has had that issue since first being picked as a 95kg flanker for the Hurricanes. He now borders on 99kgs but says he cant seem to put on anything extra. Ardie isnt a great lineout option. He doesnt have a great vertical leap. That probably comes from his lack of leg power that he admits was an issue for him when he came into the ABs during testing. Being a dominant tackler is an area that Hanson says is a requisite for loosies to start a game. The NZ U20s booklet on what they look for in each individual position also says the same. Thats able to be viewed on the NZRFU website. Ardie has only been used as an 8 by the ABs when their has been no other option away from home.
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
Hill could play both sides equally well, but at the top level I think he was better at 7 Neil - and that's what a number of top coaches felt too (inc Graham Henry and Ian McGeechan), which is why he started there for both the 1997 and 2001 Lions in the Tests... He wasn't a big man, and nowhere near as big as the guy who had gone before him for England (Tim Rodber), so that qualifies (pretty easily) as two 7's :)
Rugby wizard
Guest
You make a interesting point on Sefa certain players just lift there overall play when they put on a international Jersey. Nonu is actually a good example,a better player for all blacks than Hurricanes. I actually think hunt is that type of player too. Godwin as well a warrior in gold that probably would have stopped everything that comes at him in a wallaby Jersey. Higgs was the opposite,good super rugby player but dissapointed a bit for wallabies,I am still a big fan an think he should be in the team though. My gut feeling is Banks wont be what everyone thinks he will be in wallaby gold.. I hope I'm wrong.
Dontcallmeshirley
Guest
I agree. You can't say it was the body shape that made McCaw-Kaino-Read such a great back row. They were three once-in-a-generation players. The comparison to Pooper is unfair.
Bourkos
Roar Rookie
Has anyone else thought that Michael Oconners appointment may in part be due to his thoughts that the players must suit the game type of the coach. Maybe he's there to provide the 2:1 against johnson
Neil Back
Roar Rookie
I think it's stretching it a bit to claim England fielded two open sides in 2003 Nic. Sure Richard Hill started his England career there (and for the Lions '97 SA tour as I remember it) but pretty much as soon as Woodward took over he shuffled Dallaglio and Hill in the 6 and 8 slots to select his prefered 7 in Back, before settling on Hilly at 6 and Dayglo at 8. By 2003 Hill was very much the silent destroyer operating at the coalface as what was then a traditional 6 role. Sure you never forget core skills, but you do develop new ones you practice more. I don't see he ever operated with Back as Navidi/Warburton/Tipuric did or do. Or as Pocock and Hooper attempt to.
Froggy
Roar Rookie
Luke Jones was outstanding against the Lions at #6.
Neil Back
Roar Rookie
Any idea how Navadi and Tipuric's stats looked against Curry and Watson/Shields? Tbh can't be fagged researching it but felt like Curry was the stand out 7 for this 6N.
BuffaloTheorist
Roar Rookie
Nice teams/squad. I actually prefer Lukhan as a six, which means finding a 4th lock at the expense of Higginbotham (he peaked a while ago). Also no Koro for me, he has had a lot of channces now and his negative involvements always outweigh the positive ones. Sefa is a better Wallaby than super rugby player. I’d go with him.