In the early rounds of the season, a lot of us tip the outcome of games based on what our preseason expectations were of the clubs involved.
I was certainly guilty of doing that on Thursday night.
Rather than tipping Geelong, who I had tipped the previous two weeks (on the back of frighteningly good form in the JLT), I tipped Adelaide who I have expected to improve in leaps and bounds this season.
I am sure I speak for a lot of people when I say this… but why did I do that?
Geelong have started their season in sensational fashion and gave me no reason to tip against them.
It was my preseason expectation of Adelaide that influenced the tip.
The Cats look sharper in attack, tighter in defence and are averaging just over 68 tackles a game. That’s a great effort.
That tackling is also the first thing that caught my eye about the Cats in 2019.
I can’t say I was one for watching every preseason game and overanalysing every move, but I did tune in to Geelong’s JLT game against Essendon.
The defensive pressure was first class and they gave the Bombers no room to move, suffocating their midfield until the ball was turned over.
They are running desperately to create the contest to put the opposition under pressure.
That’s the difference between a good side and a great one.
This from Sam Menegola is just one of many examples:
That has been just one element of Geelong’s 2019 revamp.
Unlike his twin brother, Chris Scott fields his best, most in-form players in the 22, regardless if they’ve played three games or 300.
Six weeks ago most of the AFL world wouldn’t have known who Gryan Miers was – and now he’s the name on everyone’s lips!
And it’s not just the debutants, but the leaders are also stepping up for Geelong.
I’ll start with Patrick Dangerfield.
He’s one of my favourite players in the AFL and he’s one of the best in the business.
In the opening three rounds of the season he’s kicked at least one goal in every game, and is averaging 32 touches, 6.7 clearances and 4.7 tackles.
He’s off to a flyer.
So is the little maestro, Gary Ablett who is enjoying his start to the season a little higher up the ground.
And then there’s Tim Kelly, who most people forget is just in his second season of AFL because he looks as though he’s been out there for a decade.
(Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)
I know what you’re thinking – it’s only Round 3 and anything can happen.
But since the end of 2006 and the review of then-coach Mark Thompson, Geelong has developed a strong administration behind the scenes, built up a winning culture on the field and successfully sustained that for over a decade.
Since that review, the club has won three premierships from five grand final appearances.
They boast three Brownlow medallists.
And they have a great player development program, bringing kids in and turning them into fantastic footballers.
It’s that development that has allowed them to bid farewell to the likes of Jimmy Bartel, Matthew Scarlett, Joel Corey, Paul Chapman, Corey Enright, Steve Johnson, Max Rooke, Tom Harley and Cameron Mooney (just to name a few) without impacting the on-field success too much.
Of course you’re never going to truly replace those names and what they did for Geelong during their careers, but there have been plenty of players standing up in their place.
Yes, there’s Selwood, Ablett and Dangerfield. But there’s also Tom Hawkins, Harry Taylor, Tom Stewart, Mark Blicavs, Mitch Duncan… just to name a few.
And if you want a true reflection of Geelong’s success, look no further than Joel Selwood.
At the end of Round 2, 2019 he’d played 272 career games.
203 of those are wins.
Just under 75 per cent.
It’s remarkable.
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
As impressive as it is, I can understand where the annual prediction to fall comes from.
They have played finals in four of the last five seasons (2014, ’16, ’17 and ’18). From that, the Cats have won just two of their eight games. That’s where the doubt kicks in.
Those disappointing finals results stick out in our minds when making predictions for a new season.
But the memories we hold on to are those that the Cats look to analyse and improve on by the time the new season starts.
They come out fresh, they come out fighting and once again, they’re ready to push themselves into contention.
In this game you’ve got to be in it to win it. And Geelong is just about always in it.
Maybe it’ll be their year, maybe not, but they’ve had a sensational start to 2019.
Seymorebutts
Roar Rookie
I think it comes down to Jack Hawkins back.... if he is fit at the business end of the season the Cats will have as much chance as anyone.
Raimond
Roar Guru
Fair point. I'd say that NM & STK are in a situation where they have to chase any big name that's available, not many options when you're a 'beta' club.
Marnie Cohen
Expert
Agree re: WCE however take a look at their game against Essendon. Tightened up completely and it was such an impressive performance because it wasn't a one off. The tackling and pressure acts stood out to me and they've been able to capture that in the opening three rounds.
Cat
Roar Guru
Both came on the cheap and both filled actual needs, especially Dangerfield. They weren’t about chasing after whatever name was available (for example, Saints or North). There is also the fact both players only wanted to play for Geelong, they both wanted to come home so again it’s not like the Cats went chasing them.
Raimond
Roar Guru
Dangerfield? The return of the Prodigal Son? Both big, both shiny.
Cat
Roar Guru
And why is that?
mike
Guest
Not sure where the "frighteningly good" JLT opinion comes from - there was only 2 matches in JLT and they lost their first match to west coast by kicking terribly themselves and having a leaky defence. (WEST COAST EAGLES 15.9.99. GEELONG CATS 8.17.65). Not disagreeing they look good in the season proper though.
Powa
Roar Rookie
statistically the cats have been good for way too long, but they have traded senior players for draft picks and remained ever green, but never quite as potent as their form in the mid-late noughties
Winnie the Pooh (Emperor of China)
Guest
Bit early to say they are dead set contenders also.
Raimond
Roar Guru
rather than go for the big shiny names genuinely funny comment, comedy gold
Cat
Roar Guru
Shallow analysis is your problem. What is the biggest difference between H&A – where the Cats have been successful – and Finals – where the Cats have not? The answer is pressure. Cats were not built to be a pressure side and when the September heat came they had no answers, they couldn't ramp up their meager pressure. Geelong made a concerted effort to address that issue by bringing in Rohan, Dahlhaus and Atkins – three players that were basically laughed at but are exactly what the Cats have lacked and needed. The other area was a lack of speed across the ground – and again Geelong addressed that through delistings, drafting and signings. Geelong do what most clubs fail to do – address needs rather than go for the big shiny names available. Geelong didn't need 'match-winners' – Geelong needed players who played specific roles and the players they brought in are doing that. The reality was staring anyone in the face who dared to dive beyond simple scorelines.
Scott
Guest
And WEST COAST contains all the letters that spell CATS
Scott
Guest
Even creepier, GEELONG CATS contains all the letters that spell EAGLES. Eerie!
Khan
Roar Rookie
Most people with enthusiasm for Geelong winning premiership's will have had that crushed by (as briefly noted) their week 1 finals defeats by 29 and 51 points in 2018 and 2017, and a 37 point defeat in week 3 in of those games. They never looked like winning any of them. It is beyond most people to sit through that and now forecast winning premiership's. We have been here before and seen it come to a screaming halt.
Scott
Guest
Whoahhh. Told ya, eerie as!
Brian
Guest
Don't forget both have 3 vowles in their name
Rowdy
Roar Rookie
I dunno why they were written off. Selwood, Dangerfield and Ablett. A bit like Ponting, McGrath and Warne as in its hard to write a team off like those guys. Having 2 tough nuts and a magician? What team wouldn't want those three? Plus their next-level down is also fabulous.
Scott
Guest
There is an eerie amount of similarities between West Coast of last year and Geelong of this year. West coast lost 5 home and away games in 2015, Geelong lost 5 in 2016. West coast lost 6 games in 2016, Geelong lost 6 games in 2017. West coast finished the season 8th in 2017, Geeelong finished 8th in 2018. West coast lost 6 games by under 2 goals in 2017, Geelong lost 8 games by under 3 goals in 2018. Both teams had a group of elite top end players in 2017 and 2018 but lacked forward pressure. Both teams revamped their forward line with pressure players the following season. Both teams also had quality draftees that either didn’t play or barely played in their debut season. Geelong has Miers, Constable and Ratogolea, West Coast had Rioli, Waterman and Venables. Both teams had a draftee that made an instant impact, for West Coast it was Liam Ryan, for Geelong it’s Jordan Clark. We always look for the next team of exciting young players to be the big mover at the start of each year and always seem to write of the teams that already have the talent but are a bit older. It seems silly, especially when 3 of the top 4 teams each year are usually 3 of the oldest teams.
Mungbean74
Roar Rookie
I like how the Cats have evolved. After last year’s finals exit they had to do something different. And they have. I think pushing Selwood to the wing and Ablett up forward more, it has given Kelly the chance to get the ball more and also Dangerfield. And of course the new kids have added some spark. Menagola, Harry and Duncan struggled last year but seem to be playing well this year which I think is important to the Cats chances. I’m looking forward to seeing Ratagolia improve, which I think he needs to and can. It will be interesting to see how Guthrie, Toohey, Bews, S Selwood, Guthrie and Cockatoo fit back in, but at the moment guys like Constable , Atkins, Myers and Clarke are adding some spark. I thought Ablett’s class was amazing in some instances during the game but especially in the last 1/4 against Adelaide. And OConnor is showing good signs after Chris Scott’s persistence to play him despite the fans disagreeing. The list looks better than last year with the young ones , Rohan and Dalhouse and has quality not just in the 22, but players competing in the reserves.
anon
Roar Pro
Adelaide Oval has similar dimensions to Kardinia Park. Adelaide seem like a pretty ordinary team. They did beat Collingwood at the MCG, but Collingwood generally choke against top 8 teams. I'd like to see how they go on other grounds first. I had them winning 7-8 out of 9 at Kardinia Park.