In a Super Rugby season this close, the sharpshooters will be the difference

Oh goodness, another weekend full of close games and results that could easily have been different to the way they finished.

And the upsets! Oh, those glorious, unpredictable, frustrating-as-bloody-hell upsets!

A close look at the Super Rugby conference tables after eight rounds show how tight a race we’re in for this season.

The South African conference is ridiculous, with everyone now having won either three or four games and what feels like a weekly change of the lead. The Sharks are clear with four wins backed up by the most bonus points in the competition.

Behind the Sharks the second-placed Bulls are just one win clear of the fifth-placed Stormers. The Lions were comfortable among the conference leaders last week and have a healthy for-and-against, but having been thumped at Ellis Park by the Sharks, they now sit in that large group of mid-table teams that go up and down every week, and with a very negative differential.

Robert du Preez takes a shot at goal. (AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy)

The Rebels are seven clear in the Australian conference and are playing great rugby. Behind them the Waratahs head the remaining teams separated by just six points. All four sides have very similar try-scoring records.

In New Zealand the Crusaders remain six points clear courtesy of their second-half demolition of the Brumbies in Christchurch and with the Hurricanes and Blues within a win of each other. The Highlanders might well be in this group too, but they have only played six games, with the Crusaders game cancelled at the time of the horrific shootings in Christchurch.

On the unofficial overall standings there are effectively three groupings.

You basically have the conference leaders and the Hurricanes as the leading group, and only the Sharks don’t have at least five wins. But again, by virtue of their five bonus points, the Sharks sit comfortably within this group. The conference leaders all have distinctly better for-and-against records than the Hurricanes too.

At the other end of the table the Sunwolves, Brumbies and Chiefs occupy the bottom three positions and all have the worst differential records. They’ve all conceded the most tries too.

In between you have eight teams separated by just five competition points, with the Blues in fifth on 19 points down to the Highlanders in 12th on 14. All bar the Highlanders have at least three wins, but the Highlanders have points from the aforementioned draw and four losing bonus points.

So when teams are this close, what’s going to set them apart and get them moving up the table?

This is where I suspect goal-kicking is going to play a major role in 2019.

In that middle group of teams there are a few examples to look at a little closer.

The Blues have won their last four straight to storm up the competition standings, creating all kinds of headlines and causing all kinds of trouble for my tipping at the very least. They rank among the bottom teams in the competition for tries scored but are among the best as far as tries conceded goes.

But their goal-kicking has been a bit all over the shop by virtue of a seemingly revolving door at flyhalf and with the kicking tee over the first few rounds. Otere Black is kicking at 80 per cent, though, and has landed 11 from 13 over the last three games, of which he’s started the last two at No. 10.

The Bulls and Stormers have scored the fewest tries in the competition after eight rounds, but there’s a big difference between the two sides and the Bulls still look more likely in 2019 than the Stormers.

Bulls flyhalf Handre Pollard is kicking at 89 per cent for the season so far but has slotted all 20 shots at penalty goal. SP Marais was well in the 80s by the end of Round 6 for the Stormers but hasn’t been the preferred kicker the past fortnight and has missed both shots at goal he’s had late in games. Jean-Luc du Plessis has kicked five out of six in that time, but the Stormers aren’t playing with that same keep-the-scoreboard-ticking mentality that the Bulls do.

Handre Pollard. Sharpshooter. (Steve Haag/Gallo Images/Getty Images)

Last season Bernard Foley kicked at 83 per cent in Super Rugby, including a string of 50 from 63 over his last ten games. But this form didn’t carry into the international season and he hasn’t rediscovered it this season either. He’s well down at 66 per cent in 2019 and, worryingly, has missed eight of 17 conversion attempts. The Waratahs have picked up a bonus point in all four losses to date.

The Highlanders also have losing bonus points from their four losses, and their record isn’t too bad compared to other teams in this mid-table group. But news that Marty Banks will miss the next six weeks is a worry because he’s kicked 13 goals from 13 this season and all ten shots since starting at flyhalf two games ago.

The Melbourne Rebels are playing wonderfully, as I mentioned up front, but a big point of difference in their 2019 start to the season is the reliable kicking of Quade Cooper. Cooper kicking at 77 per cent isn’t earth-shattering in itself, but 21 from 24 across the last four games is a huge uplift, and it’s all significantly better than the 67 per cent Reece Hodge kicked at in 2018 as well as the 60 per cent Jack Debreczeni managed until he fell from favour.

Rebels player Quade Cooper (Tracey Nearmy/Getty Images)

Of course there are exceptions.

The Crusaders are the runaway competition favourites already but as a side are kicking at only 62 per cent. Richie Mo’unga isn’t much better at 64 per cent himself, but his nine from ten in his last two games is a decent indication of what might follow.

And of course, after he kicked 48 from 50 last season, Haydn Parker’s incredible 29 from 30 this year – and he proved his infallibility in Melbourne on Saturday night – isn’t rocketing the Sunwolves up the charts either. But now that they’re playing in a manner that asks more questions of sides, Parker’s boot can absolutely make a difference for the Moondogs in 2019.

The competition is already running too close for kickers to have off nights or lose their range.

But how many teams have the ability or the personnel to make the goal-kicking improvements they might already need?