Friday night’s Good Friday affair between Essendon and North Melbourne showed that North Melbourne, at 1-4 to start the 2019 season, are not very good at football.
North got dominated by Essendon to the tune of 58 points and, as always, the same issues came up. They have a mediocre head coach who makes little-to-no adjustments with his game, no real plan as to what they want to do, and little-to-no young talent on their list.
While stars in their prime and young talents like Ben Cunnington, Ben Brown, Luke Davies-Uniacke and Tarryn Thomas do exist, they simply do not have enough quality on their list right now and, with that in mind, it’s going to be quite a few years before we see a North team make any real impact again.
Coming ninth in 2018 seemed like a blessing, with one of the least talented lists in the AFL going on a great early season run that saw the team in finals contention for virtually the whole year.
Though they did miss the finals, and not much noticeable improvement came from the young players on the list (2017 fourth overall pick Luke Davies-Uniacke was somewhat of a disappointment in his first year), a career year from 30-year old Shaun Higgins (the 2018 Syd Barker medallist), as well as solid yearly performances from 27-year-old Jack Ziebell, 30-year old Todd Goldstein, 26-year-old Ben Brown (nearly the Coleman medalist) and 27-year-old Ben Cunnington had many North fans thinking that, with another top ten pick in the line-up and more improvement from young players like Davies-Uniacke and Mason Wood, the team would be a finals contender once again in 2019.
This year, quite a few of their weaknesses are being exposed, and the near-future looks bleak at Arden Street. This article is going to target three of those issues.
Lack of young talent and poor drafting in recent years
North Melbourne’s first two picks from 2014-2017;
- No. 16, 2014 – Sam Durdin, key defender. Nine games.
- No. 25, 2014 – Daniel Nielson, key defender. Seven games.
- No. 21, 2015 – Ben McKay, key forward. One game.
- No. 31, 2015 – Ryan Clarke, midfielder. 40 games, now with Sydney.
- No. 12, 2016 – Jy Simpkin, midfielder. 35 games.
- No. 34, 2016 – Declan Watson, defender. Yet to debut.
- No. 4, 2017 – Luke Davies-Uniacke, midfielder. 11 games.
- No. 23, 2017 – Will Walker, midfielder. Four games.
While, of course, further improvement could be shown by the eight players above, the average of 13.375 senior games per player drafted with one of North’s top two picks from 2014-2017 is frightening for any rebuilding team. 69 per cent of the 107 senior games played by the eight players above have been played by two players, one of whom was traded to Sydney last offseason for a mid-round draft pick.
Jy Simpkin is the only player from 2014-2016 (bar the now-gone Clarke) who has broken into the senior team and, while the jury is out on LDU, from 2017, for a team that hadn’t had a top five pick since 2009 and needed an influx of talent, he hasn’t lived up to potential yet. Although he still has lots of time.
North’s drafting has been terrible recently, and the sad thing is that their recruiting team will be tasked with using what will be a very high draft pick in 2019 to help the team (likely a top five pick) on another talented youngster.
This team’s horrible drafting and poor list management has led to some terrible young talent on the list, and it will take years to get enough talent back onto the list to put North in a position to win.
Banking on free agency
It’s a running joke at this stage. North Melbourne offers big money to the likes of Dustin Martin and Josh Kelly, multi-million dollar contracts, only for these stars to turn down Arden Street to stay at their current team for less money.
At this stage I wouldn’t be surprised if North offered Wayne Carey a five-year deal to rejoin the list and provide a key target next to big Ben Brown.
North’s recruiting focus appears to be on getting big fish in free agency rather than developing young talent through the draft, a risky strategy that rarely works out.
It especially never works out for a small market team like North Melbourne, a team tipped to eventually go to Tasmania, as well as being one of the least marketable and supported Melbourne teams.
A club that isn’t a major free agency destination should be trying to build a competitive team via trade, and there have been times where they’ve done that.
Last season they traded pick 11 and a fourth-rounder in 2019 for Jared Polec, Jasper Pittard and a third round pick in 2018 (48th). Pittard and Polec are solid players, and North should be trying to do more trades like that for solid stars on the cheap.
But instead, for the last few years, they’ve been banking on that one transcendent talent to come through and help begin a winning culture. That hasn’t happened, and it probably won’t happen soon.
If they continue banking on a superstar joining their team for big cash, they won’t go anywhere as a team. Free agents want to go join teams with good players; when Ben Cunnington, Shaun Higgins and Ben Brown are your biggest selling points as a team, you aren’t going to get anybody of note.
Mediocre coaching
I think we can all agree that Brad Scott is not a very good coach. Average? Maybe. Underrated? If you say so. But he isn’t very good.
Scott is famous for his few matchday and in-game adjustments, moves that can make or break a football team. There is no real direction with North Melbourne.
Is it time for Brad Scott to move on? (AAP Image/David Crosling)
Scott’s vanilla tactics and conservative style of football are not exciting. ‘That’s fine’, you say, ‘you don’t need to be exciting to win football games’.
The thing is, North Melbourne aren’t winning games either. For a team that wants to rely so heavily on a big fish acquisition in free agency, the conservative Scott isn’t going to draw many fans or new recruits in. After a decade in the job, North Melbourne needs a change. Brad Scott needs to go and a new coach needs to lead this next era of Kangaroo football, if the team wants any hope in the future.
The thing about the three mammoth issues I mentioned is, that isn’t even extending to the level of football and the players right now. Most of their quality players are ageing and only have a few years left to perform, and they’ll need to be moved on over the coming years to usher in a new brand of footy.
North’s list isn’t particularly talented right now, and that should be improved (barring any mortal blows from their management team). North are going to be bad for a few years, and in five or ten years we can look back at this article and compare this piece to what’s happened since. But down at Arden Street, some major changes need to be made.
asd
Guest
Not all Scott's fault .He never had the luxury of his brother in the powerhouse of Gee long
Munro Mike
Roar Rookie
There are many attacking Brad Scott - reckon he hasn't achieved in his almost 10 years at the club - however - to me, the 2014/2015 back to back prelims was the pinnacle of the build up with the core group that he inherited and developed around. 4 finals wins including 3 at the MCG (over Ess, Geel and Richmond) was mighty impressive and exciting. The accusation of not developing talent - well - it was under Scott that Goldstein evolved to #1 at the club and after 107 games, Hamish McIntosh was let go at the end of 2012 - and by 2015 Goldie was the All Australian. Robbie Tarrant has been re-invented from a struggling key forward to a top rated key defender. Ben Cunnington, the pick before Gary Rohan - has evolved into a top rated mid field clearance player (although he annoys me by not pushing back hard enough off the mark, and being 'too cool' to raise his arms defensively to try to intercept/spoil opposition passes). Jed Anderson landed at North - and I'd seen some of his body of work including his last Box Hill premiership performance and I couldn't see it.....he's convinced me since. Jarrad Waite came to North and played probably his best/most consistent footy. Brown was how often overlooked and is now a top line forward and Dumont through 2018 to now evolving into a frontline mid. The biggest issue to me - after the correct (and perhaps overdue) moving on of Spud, Petrie, Dal Santo and Boomer (yeah - another year and he could've got to 500 I'm pretty sure) - is that even through that last year of 2016 that the next generation were struggling to stay on the park. That's where the rot started to set in for Sam Wright, Ben Jacobs and Taylor Garner and Mason Wood. Look at the NMFC 'class of 2012' draft - and Garner has managed just 34, Jacobs 62 an Wood 42 and even Majak Daw rookied - 50. Contrast to the better returns on the class of 2013 with McDonald 100, Dumont coming very good now with 65, Brown with 104 and Turner 63. The class of 2012 - if on the paddock more regularly - would make a pretty big difference. The focus from 2014 and alas Sam Durdin would be playing this season but for his finger/knife accident; EVW would've played a heap of footy last year and this but for PCL and now ACL injuries. Preuss is my grievance - should've got games in 2018 even if to increase trade value to potentially include in a GWS deal with J.Kelly (given they're recalled Mumford). From 2015 - Ben McKay like his twin is a work in progress - and he was tracking ahead of Harry in the VFL initially and as a forward - has been put down back but right now I reckon get him back up forward and give him a crack at it. Wagner and Clarke are at other clubs - and Mountford I didn't mind so don't know what happened there. From 2016 - Simpkin is nearing 50 games - needs to start showing what sort of player he is - I'm not sure yet. Larkey - was all at sea when he debuted - perhaps back half this year - just play him meanwhile Zurhaar has a bit of footy smarts and at 188cm has been our #2 ruck option the last 2 weeks!! From 2017 LDU is coming along okay, Will Walker impressed but has had injury issues so far this year - Xerri is highly rated and the reason Preuss was put back in the pecking order and hopefully Hayden might be nearing a call up although he'd been put on the rookie list at the end of last year. The fact that Thomas and Scott have both tasted it so far is great - I don't want them over taxed this year, handle with care a bit like Ahern last year (and Ahern is someone who needs to show he can take the next step through this season). The biggest issue is - the loss of Waite and absence of Daw - the bookends. Look at Essendon - now with Hooker and Daniher back in, they look a million dollars. I have no expectations of Majak Daw this season. And up forward - we need to develop either McKay or Larkey as the 2nd/3rd (with Wood - he has never played more than 7-8 successive games - he must get to 60 games this year and perfect his 'trade' at the top level in that time). It's not all doom and gloom. Confidence is very low. Even in the win, we were 1.6 at qrtr time and 1.9 midway into the 2nd term. Against Essendon again, 1.6 at qrtr time. Against the Hawks it was 7.11 to 8.6 at 3/4 time - we'd finished that term with momentum but a goal to Polec was bracketed by two ordinary missed shots by the skipper Ziebell - - we should've been 9.9 and not 7.11. Should've been 9 pts up and not a point down. Had we won that game the Hawks might well be the side at 1-4 right now. Players aren't robots; this isn't an X-Box game; North need to persist but also to relax and not try too hard. If 1-4 and the VFL side going down by 94 to Essendon means we are at rock bottom - that may be a blessing - the only way is up and now there's nothing to lose.
Barn16
Guest
From 2014 I think Scott has improved as a coach. In 2014 and 2015 our most talented player Daniel Wells was vurtually unavailable yet we finished 4th both years. He did play against Essendon in the 2014 elimination final and was critical in keeping us in the game early on. In 2016 we fell off a cliff after halfway but this was a reflection of our ageing list, similar to Freo in the back half of 2015. The decision to retire players at the end of 2016 was in general correct except for Harvey (#3 in AFL effective kicks inside 50) and was compounded by the loss of Wells (#1 in AFL for score assists). In 2017, we were hit hard with injuries but still competitive early in the season. Last year saw players Anderson, Daw and Dumont have break out years, also Ahern had an excellent 2nd half of the year. Scott got the structure right using Ziebell mainly as a forward and Atley as a pressure half forward. I think our current malaise is not due to list but game style. We over possess the ball and play to cautiously, obviously we are low on confidence. In short, we need to play a more chaos type of game to try and inject some energy/excitement into thr group. The pre-occupation with a big fish is a distraction. I'd take Higgins over most players in the comp. I'll back LDU to get better and Will Walker to be a big improver. In saying that not sure if I would hang on to Turner and Simpkin. Would play Zuurhar, Thomas, Scott and Taylor or Wilkinson ahead of these 2 blokes at the minute.
Roo Believer
Roar Rookie
Good article, agree with most points although I think some of the more established players are more talented than most would give them credit for and which has kept the team from regularly being cellar dwellers. IMO Ben Jacobs is a massive out and one of the most important players in the team, one of, if not, the best taggers in the league (particularly valuable now that the new rules provide more room for stars to dominate) and can hurt teams back the other way in picking up possessions and kicking goals. Confidence is also a wonderful thing and when you have belief in your coach, team mates and the game plan, this can be a massive factor in grinding out a win or turning around bad form. There is no doubt in my mind that North needs to set itself to rebuild from the base with the view of building a team that can vie for a premiership in 5-10 years and the basis of this is the draft. No matter what your view of Brad Scott is as a coach, the reality is that this will be his tenth season and if this bold rebuild is undertaken is he the right man to do this, can he reinvent himself bring in fresh ideas, introduce more dynamism etc? Many would argue that with a new approach, would herald the opportunity for new management ie coach, list manager, football operations etc The question is whether the club's senior executives will have the courage to make this bold change and risk (?) the impact on membership or whether it will continue to take the safe option and hope that the team as is will evolve into a premiership contender. For the sake of the club and its supporters, I'm hoping for the former rather than the latter.
Timmuh
Roar Guru
Never. Tanking leads to 15 years of Carlton, and nothing to show at the end of it. North won't need to tank to finish the season 3-19 at best anyway. They just need to maintain current form. Genuine horror show.
Brendan
Guest
North should start tanking and look to trade out some of there players at seasons end.They have accepted mediocrity for too long.Get a new coaching panel and a half dozen new players .
Timmuh
Roar Guru
I'm not so sure. Carlton are better than last year, but still absolute trash. Absolute trash is be enough to beat North on current form. Tiresomely mediocre enough to smash them. Carlton may very well beat North. As things stand a game against Subiaco would be a 50-50 proposition.
Rooboy
Guest
See what happens when Marley Williams is out?
Duckworth-Lewis
Guest
Yet they are still better than Carlton.
Sam
Guest
LDU is looking better, but jury is still out. Patty Dow is similar. Hasn't set the competition alight, and probably will take time to develop. But generally agree, Luke McDonald was #7, and he looks nowhere near his peers. Similar to Jack Ziebell- still goes missing in so many games.
Sam
Guest
Here are some observations: - I think North generally over-achieve. The two prelims are a good examples of this, as was 2018. It means we've spend a lot of time just out of the 8, but never getting those top end draft picks in order to rebuild. - Jarrad Waite & Drew Petrie were a huge loss. I never realised how good both players were until you see Ben Brown triple teamed because opposition defenders aren't concerned about the rest of the forward line. - Majak Daw was also a big loss. You might say a good team can deal with one good player going down, but Majak was one guy who you can see Scott has developed when most wrote him off. He was also had a bit of X-factor and could be thrown up forward for a change - Goldstein looks a bit sluggish. I know lots of us are hoping he gets back to his best, but I really doubt whether he'll stay past 2019. He doesn't seem to be loving his footy, and it can be seen in his effort. Who takes his spot? - I'm really surprised by how poor our midfield has gelled. I really thought the 6-6-6 would work to North's advantage with Anderson & Cunnington leading the charge. But at the moment, we're one of those teams who a quick 5 goals could be scored at ease.
Pope Paul VII
Roar Rookie
North had their chances early but clangers killed them when the game was still hot. That's something that they can fix pretty quickly. Daw and Jacobs are two they desperately miss. I don't care what anyone says, Cunnington is a star and any club would have him. Essendon looked alright so we will see how they go. And WC were dreadful at home. Perhaps it's just footy?
Ditto
Roar Rookie
North have to identify and fix why their early draft picks aren't working out so great. They have pretty much followed the form guide when making selections, it's not as though Luke Davies-Uniacke was a surprise selection, but compared to how Cerra and Stephenson are going at their clubs he's so far a disappointment and it's a similar story for the last 5 years of drafting.
RooBoy18
Roar Rookie
Still too early in the season to be writing off North and we tend to get carried away when the score blows out and start pointing fingers. It's how you finish the season that matters and things can turn pretty quickly. Scott, I think in general he has done a good job with the team available. He also has been dealt a hard hand with some cruicial injuries and omissions(ie Jacobs, who I rate up there with Brown as a vital cog in North's machine - if they both fire North usually wins). The new recruits are going to take time settle in and in North are still a couple of years off from being a genuine contender. Finals are not out of the question yet for 2019 but that would be a huge achievement for Scott if we got there, despite not going deeper into September.
Rowdy
Roar Rookie
As a Crows supporter this is a depressing read. The only way I can console myself is that they have Ben Brown.