So, how’s your tipping going this year? Actually, don’t answer that – we both know the answer. Anyway – Round 5’s done, so we’d better get a hurry on these rankings as Round 6 is only day away.
(1) Geelong Cats (last week: 2)
As expected, Geelong pulled off a fine victory – yet, also as most expected – it’s not like there weren’t a few nervy moments. Geelong held firm, though, and once against their midfield provided the path to victory.
(2) GWS Giants (last week: 1)
Oh dang, that’s what you call a peculiar loss. Kept it close for a while, admittedly, but the Giants were lethargic and their defence overrun at times by a strong Freo attack. A little complacent, maybe?
(3) Collingwood Magpies (last week: 5)
Arguably their best performance yet in a season that’s started a little slowly for the black + white. Loved watching their play on Thursday – damn they look powerful when they get going. Anzac Day will be a belter.
(4) West Coast Eagles (last week: 3)
Eh, every team has an off day. But the Eagles were listless for much of the clash – and Port exploited that superbly. They travel to Geelong for a tough clash next weekend – where they better hope it’s not raining.
(5) Port Adelaide Power (last week: 7)
Among the most impressive wins I’ve seen in a long while. But given their loss last week, I hereby proclaim Port Adelaide as the most inconsistent team in the competition.
(6) St Kilda Saints (last week: 9)
The most unusual thing here is that St Kilda kicked three times as many goals as they did behinds. Don’t see that too often. This is a team which is playing just that: as a team. I’d be marking them down as a big, big chance to beat the Crows next week.
(7) Essendon (last week: 12)
Their third strong win in succession, and it’s easy to say the Bombers are back to their best. Good timing – Anzac Day is literally right around the corner. And, given Collingwood’s also heading in with some form, it’s anyone’s (marquee) game to win.
North Melbourne skipper Jack Ziebell and Essendon’s Adam Saad go head-to-head at Etihad Stadium. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)
(8) Fremantle (last week: 13)
Fremantle did savage North in Round 1, yes, but Saturday’s effort is a vastly more special one. A forward line that kicks goals – lots of ‘em – is something almost the antithesis of a Ross Lyon-coached side, but combining that with the upset factor, and it was one of Fremantle’s better wins in a long while. They simply must back that up, though.
(9) Brisbane Lions (last week: 4)
Whilst it was good to see the Gabba back to its energetic best, Brisbane couldn’t pull a repeat of last year’s close fun fixture. It’s fun to imagine big things for the Lions, but this is twice in succession that they’ve been shaded by a powerful team. And you gotta beat the best to be the best.
(10) Richmond Tigers (last week: 11)
Richmond kicked 81 points from opposition turnovers on Saturday night. Their total score was 89. It was a brutally powerful display helped well by the retuning Dustin Martin, while Richmond’s newest players also shined. Are Richmond back….?
(11) Adelaide Crows (last week: 14)
Alarm bells would’ve been ringing after a dreadful first quarter, but the Crows comfortably dominated the rest of the clash in a relief after a poor few weeks. Eddie Betts proved he still had the moves 300 games in – booting six in a stellar display. They can’t get complacent, though – the Saints will be a challenge next Saturday.
Eddie Betts. (Photo by Morne de Klerk/Getty Images)
(12) Gold Coast Suns (last week: 6)
And they come crashing back down to Earth. Adelaide, in Adelaide, were probably always going to be a bridge too far for the young Suns, but they might be concerned how limp they were. I know young teams have peaks and troughs, it’ll still sting.
(13) Hawthorn Hawks (last week: 10)
Far from disgraced, but try as they might, they couldn’t match the run of a stronger Cats side. Propagated some nervy moments late in the game, but while they couldn’t catch the Cats, they probably wouldn’t be too disappointed and neither would their fans.
(14) Western Bulldogs (last week: 8)
It’s evident that the Bulldogs were performing badly when most of the last quarter was spent trying to see if the Blues could kick 100 points, not whether the Bulldogs could come back from their deficit. Very poor game, and a trip to Perth to face a (maybe good again) Freo squad awaits.
(15) Sydney Swans (last week: 15)
Great to see Buddy Franklin continue kicking the big ones, but that’s about all the Swans can celebrate from Saturday night’s loss. They were trash – and I’m not sure where they go from here.
Lance Franklin of the Swans. (Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
(16) Carlton Blues (last week: 18)
Not sure how long they’ll be off the bottom, but they deserve it this week. Drought breaking win in more ways than one. Got the win, yup. Kicked 100 points, yup. Doing this all while fairly comfortably dominating the clash in its entirety was the cherry on top.
(17) Melbourne Demons (last week: 16)
Welp, they Melbourne-d it up. A goalless third term exemplified their woeful effort, and allowing the Saints eight straight at one point only solidified it. Being one win from five starts, the Demons aren’t afforded a whole lotta time to salvage their season.
(18) North Melbourne (last week: 17)
Putrid, and coming a week after their first win to boot. Was almost a coin flip to see if they or the Demons would be relegated to last, but I reckon North are the ones that have to be. Neither are in good spots at the moment, for what it’s worth.
Enigma
Roar Rookie
The bigger concern of the two is our inability to score despite having plenty of the ball in our forward half and forward 50. We're always going to concede goals out the back of our zone/press because that's how we set up (we have a much more aggressive set up than most other sides) and also in part because our key defensive personnel are either not very good (O McDonald, Frost, J Wagner) or out of form (Hibberd, Jetta when not injured this year, Fritsch). The bigger concern IMO is our inability to score when going inside 50. Hopefully tonight we see Garlett and Lockhart adding some pace and defensive pressure (alongside Hunt) so that when the ball hits the deck it doesn't just fling straight out again. Then if we can get Tom McDonald into a semblance of form, and he starts leading up at the ball carrier and taking marks, we might be able to do something with our otherwise useless stack of inside 50s. More than that, though, we need more defensive running from the forwards and mids (particularly players like Melksham, Petracca, Jones, Lewis, Harmes and Oliver). If we want to persist with the forward press that we used in 2018, we have to work harder to enforce it. Otherwise we're just sitting ducks to be scored against.
Daz
Roar Pro
Also, most of the losing teams this week had atrocious accuracy. Scores of 8.13, 7.16, 7.13, 7.15, 6.10 could have kept the losing teams in the game for longer had they been more accurate. The winning teams, weren't particularly accurate either, St Kilda the only winning team to score fewer than 10 behinds, but they all scored more than 10 goals.
Daz
Roar Pro
For the record, my Excel-based predictor currently says Collingwood will beat Geelong in the GF.
Daz
Roar Pro
The most frustrating thing for Melbourne at the moment is that you look at the overall stats, we're not doing too bad. It's just that we can't for the life of us score once it gets inside 50, and we can't seem to stop our opponents from scoring once it gets in their 50.
Maurice
Guest
Good rankings maybe bris and Richmond above the dockers ,even though it was the upset of the year Hopefully a bit of consistency against the dogs and we can start believing again.a little bit anyway!!!
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
They said the same about the Holden centre a couple of years back with all the soft tissue injuries the Pies had.
Doctor Rotcod
Roar Rookie
It's true that when you think that there is one win between 1st and 11th the relative positions don't mean so much. Are the strength of wins as measured by the present ladder more what we should look at? Geelong have beaten 4th, 17th, 11th and 13th and lost to 6th. Eagles have lost to 9th and 5th and beaten 4th, 3rd and 6th. That is a solid first five weeks, based on today's ladder. On Barrass, who may be out for a few weeks - Simpson is talking about seven lower leg or foot injuries due to training at Perth Stadium and says that the Eagles won't be training there for the forseeable future. Cripps, Jetta, Kennedy, Barrass, Rioli and Yeo are who I can think of. Waterman with a hamstring after the WAFL curtain-raiser, perhaps. If this was Marvel or the MCG there would be a great hoo-hah. How soft will Kardinia be?
Duckworth-Lewis
Guest
Richmond are too low. We are back in business without even fielding our best team (for obvious reasons).
Duckworth-Lewis
Guest
Spot on PeteB, the mighty Tigers are too low.
Kaniel Outis
Guest
I hope Melbourne get the wooden spoon. Tanking is despicable.
Aus in Engerland
Guest
In 2018... Rd 3 - 2 goals down mid way through Q4, kicked 6 quick ones to win by 15 points. Rd 5 - struggled all day and won by 10 points. Played badly but worked through it. Rd 10 - level at 1/2 time and won a tight one by 15. Rd 15 - away to Adelaide. Down by 4 goals at 3/4 time. Won by 10 points. Rd 21 - away to Port. Kicked 2 goals in the last 45 seconds to steal a win. There's a few for you. There's also Derby 1 where we played badly all day but just worked for a close win. So they are capable of it.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
You know the 1st v 8th is deceptive though Doc? A loss to Port in filthy conditions really what does that mean? Eagles are always awful in Tassie too. Barrass a big loss though. Cats will have been stung by the GWS loss at home and expect them to be very tough to beat there.
Doctor Rotcod
Roar Rookie
Excellent. Next round, as Gordon Smith tells us, is no better than a coin-flip. Will the Pies be able to slow the Bombers down? They are averaging 2.2 points a game better than Collingwood... Will the Bombers score enough to stop the Pies winning anyway with their wonderful fleet of mid-sized forwards? Will Bellchambers keep Grundy quiet? 1st vs 8th is a big test for the Eagles who haven't won at KP for 13 years, but have a recent 3-2 winning run against Geelong and an overall superior win/loss record to hang their hopes on.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
A bit of topic but I would be interested in the Ave winning & Losing margins of West Coast. Other than the Grand Final, and without doing a shred of investigation they seem to either win easy or get beat easy. I'm sure the Eagles supporters will be happy to set me straight, but is it fair to say that they aren't the type of team who when they play badly can manage to work their way through it for a wind?
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
If we finish second Doc and a Melbourne club was third I wouldn't care. If we were second and the Eagles were third you're not getting those gimme goals back.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
A Pies v Cats Grand Final would be something. I know its only round 5 so just dreaming really but it would be a repeat of 2011 but with both sides taking totally different paths to get back there. Eagles, Tigers and Giants for me are the other threats at round 5 with outside chances to Melbourne and Essendon. Freo should play finals but can't see them going all the way. Port are too inconsistent and Adelaide are puzzling. Saints will fall away.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
You will get out of the bottom four and IMO play finals Enigma. It's only round 5 and things can change quickly with a dose of confidence. Look at Essendon.
Enigma
Roar Rookie
Really? Everywhere I look there's another article or TV show segment on Melbourne - whether it's our lack of fitness, supposed cultural issues/problems with McCartney, our inability to defend, not listening to Goodwin, outdated zone/press plans, etc. I don't see us rising too far up the ladder. I don't see us doing an Essendon of 2018, for example. More likely an Adelaide of 2018, but with fewer wins (i.e. never really looking like a finals threat but somehow winning games anyway and mathematically being alive until the last month or so). But if we don't make some changes to our gameplan, we won't win enough games to get out of the bottom 4.
Doctor Rotcod
Roar Rookie
The weird thing was that three games were by 10 goals,three games were by seven goals and three games were by four goals. The Eagles haven't beaten the Cats at Kardinia since 2006, so if they do, that would be great. PtS, what happens if the Pies make it to second at the end of the H&A by a close %? Will you insist that the third placed team take the Pies position, given the two goals that weren't ?
XI
Roar Guru
Good list AD. Gotta say though that this round was a real handbrake on my enthusiasm for the season. Not because your team beat mine, but because none of the games were close. The closest game by numbers was the Tigers-Swans game and when the winner scores more than 90% of their score from the other team's mistakes that's never a good sign for quality of a contest. The closest game in feeling was the Giants-Dockers game and for some reason my team decided to not come out after 3/4 time. Very glad that today is the only day between rounds so that our palette might be cleansed quickly.