It’s only the end of Round 9 and already 13 of the NRL sides can pretty much be written off.
The Bulldogs just haven’t had the roster to compete.
Any wheels that Ivan Cleary thought the Panthers had have well and truly fallen off and been replaced by bricks while the bus is on the side of Mulgoa Road.
Every time the Titans look like getting it together they get whacked by the injury fairy, and they’re now already too far back.
With Jason Taumalolo back on deck the Cowboys look far more dangerous, but their backline just lacks the necessary venom for them to truly be a contender, even with Michael Morgan at the helm.
Jason Taumalolo is back for the Cowboys (Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)
The Warriors… I mean, what do you even say? They are the first word in potential and last word in inconstancy and underachievement. They could make the finals, they could come last. It’s a mystery. What isn’t a mystery is that they won’t be in the 2019 grand final.
The Broncos’ poor recruitment and list management over the past decade or so has finally come home to roost. I mean, I’m okay if they want to put Tevita Pangai Junior on a massive contract, but I’m not sure I would. It looks likely they’ll miss the finals for just the third time in their existence.
Any real chance the Dragons had in this season that had such promise evaporated with the injuries the Corey Norman and Gareth Widdop. Add to that the NRLs ‘no fault’ suspension of Jack de Belin and the poor old Red V might as well start blooding the juniors now.
The Knights should be doing a lot better as their list is actually pretty good. The results haven’t quite matched that potential. The Novocastrians may well make the finals, but they surely aren’t contenders in 2019.
While the Eels have won five of their nine games – some handsomely – they’ve been held scoreless by the Raiders, well beaten by the Roosters and shellacked by the Storm. As The Rugby League Project’s Andrew Ferguson told us, no side that’s conceded 50 points in a game has won the premiership that year.
(Brendon Thorne/Getty Images)
As the great win over the Storm showed, the Sharks can beat any side on their day. However, they have not been consistent at all this year and injuries have hamstrung them. What they wouldn’t give to have Valentine Holmes right now. Look, they could still give the title a shake this year, but they’ve got to get into a rhythm and injured players must get fit ASAP.
Exactly how do the Wests Tigers find themselves in sixth spot right now? When the Eels smashed them they looked like wooden spooners. They got beaten by the Bulldogs and the Panthers in the first meeting. However, they’ve won five games, so there they are. Does anyone truly believe they are a contender, though?
I thought the Sea Eagles’ lack of depth would see them in the bottom four in 2019 but it seems Des Hasler has really instilled some pride back into the club. Jake Trbojevic and Martin Taupau are Stars no doubt and – as usual – they’ve unearthed some good talent. So things are looking up at Brookvale, but they won’t win the 2019 premiership.
The Raiders might be building to something but the injury fairy looks like it will destroy this year’s chances. With no John Bateman, Joe Tapine, Jordan Rapana and Joseph Leilua for extended periods it’ll be hard to stay in the top four. And – as we know – if you aren’t in the top four come season’s end, you won’t win the title. Plus even if they do make it to the finals, the odds are good that the oldest Sutton boy will control their matches. Someone in green must have eaten his lunch or run over his dog given his handling of their matches against the Sea Eagles and Roosters.
So then we are left with the actual contenders.
All three have great reasons to believe that they can win the premiership as well as issues that might stop them.
The Melbourne Storm
Why they won’t win
The Storm aren’t quite what they used to be. Brodie Croft ain’t no Cooper Cronk and Jahrome Hughes is not Billy Slater. While not the oldest player in the NRL (that’s 37-year-old Paul Gallen), Cameron Smith turns 36 in June. Age must weary even the great referee whisperer. Can the future immortal – face it, he will be – drag his team to glory one more time? I’m not so sure. And if he gets injured, you can put a line through the Storm’s chances.
Why they will win
Of course Cam Smith can do it. He’s Cam Smith. Further, the Storm pack is just awesome and Bellamy ball is as effective as it ever was – especially with referees boss Graham Annesley ending the penalty blitz of 2018 with the result being that wrestling and continual defensive penalties are right back in vogue. Along with that, the Purple Horde’s discipline and focus can overwhelm any team.
The key man
How good is Cam Munster? I mean, just ask him. But he is so good. And he’s going to show you. He’s not scared of you and he’s going for your throat. If he continues this form, the Storm are definitely a real chance.
Cam Munster (Graham Denholm/Getty Images)
The South Sydney Rabbitohs
Why they won’t win
The Rabbitohs team is solid but it might lack that bit class to really enable them to reach for the golden ring. In 2014 there was Greg Inglis running the backline adding serious poise, experience and X factor. They haven’t replaced that. I mean, how can you? Latrell Mitchell I guess. Further, you just know that Sam Burgess is going to get a bit too much white line fever and get himself suspended at some stage. The only question is how long it will be for. While the Bunnies are far from a one-man team, without Big Sam they aren’t contenders.
Why they will win
Master coach Wayne Bennett knows how to mould clay like that wearing the cardinal and myrtle into premiership winners. His players will be able to fully commit to his instructions. That will make them formidable. Players like Dane Gagai, Cody Walker, Adam Reynolds and Damien Cook have great ability. And then there are the Burgii.
The key man
When Sam Burgess imposes himself as the alpha wolf on the field he grabs his side the ascendency. If he can stay on the field, the Bunnies can go all the way.
The Sydney Roosters
Why they won’t win
No side since 1993 has won back-to-back titles. The Broncos triumph in 1993 was made a whole lot easier when Ricky Stuart snapped his ankle late in the season. Further, the long-term injury to Jake Friend has left them with Victor Radley as a makeshift hooker. That’s not ideal. It could hurt their chances.
Why they will win
Just look at that back line. It is stellar. All killer, no filler. Luke Keary is in career best form and Latrell Mitchell is very arguably the best player in the game right now. The pack also isn’t too shabby – and they clearly know how to get the job done at season’s end.
The key man
Cooper Patrick Cronk may be 35 but the old man with the sideways nose is the keystone that locks the Roosters together and makes them such a potent force. Uncle Nick sure knew what he was doing when he lured the Queenslander away from the Storm at such great expense. If Cronk’s shoulder holds up, the Roosters are good thing.
Once more, I predicted at season’s start that the Roosters would repeat their 2018 triumph. I see no reason to change that view.
qwetzen
Roar Rookie
Reverse?
qwetzen
Roar Rookie
"Latrell Mitchell is very arguably the best player in the game right now." Latrell Mitchell is the new Jarryd Hayne. A couple of good club games and he suddenly becomes "the best player in the game".
db
Guest
Are you saying they have a Bold Personality?
afistfulofdollars
Roar Rookie
As much as it pains me to say it - I can't see a Premiership contender from outside of those three. Perhaps the Raiders are the only team with the necessary firepower to challenge come playoffs. But Sticky hasn't been there in a while and I worry their depth would be an issue if a few injuries were to strike them down. Manly have overperformed off the back of some coaching masterclass. The Eels, Sharks and Tigers have been terribly inconsistent. I'd predict the Dragons and the Broncos to clinch final berths but I only see them making up the numbers. What astounds me is the depth of the top three sides - particularly the Roosters and Melbourne. Ryan Hall will make his NRL debut tonight, a 38 test veteran for England and prolific try scorer to boot. Given he's been injured, I'd argue he still wouldn't make a full strength Chooks 13. The same goes for Melbourne. Billy Slater retires and the Storm have 3 genuinely impressive young stars vying for his jersey. So what is the secret to NRL success? Superior recruitment? World class coaching? Is it an even playing field? A long way from it.
Emcie
Roar Guru
I dunno if going to a club coming off consecutive wooden spoons was exactly what he meant by "challenge"... And to be fair, he would have been mentoring Pearce if he didn't jump ship. Keary has certainly gone up a level in the last year. I think you may have read too much into his statements.
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
Emcie, nothing to do with the club, city. He talked up the “move isn’t money, don’t need it, want a new challenge, share my experience and knowledge and help some people grow” manta and then followed the dollars. As I said, he’s entitled, but in my view Roosters weren’t the club that fitted the profile of his musings so I simply state he should have said he was up for the dollars, instead of implying the most challenging or appreciative situation… PS I don’t follow the Knights so it’s not like he went to the wrong city for me.
Nat
Roar Guru
He might come to Brisbane! We got a center who's heart isn't in it anymore and had multiple torn egos. If we can get compensation for him, I'm sure we can find the rest.
Nat
Roar Guru
Why do get to further your argument by dismissing media sources that say one thing but then reference the same sources when making your argument. The Media (in whatever form) don't know any players salary. They either assume or the player manager is the inside source. If it's the latter, it's in the best interest of the manager to pump up any figure as it highlights their work as much as the players' value. Those figures you stated (most likely) are not far off the mark but it would be safe to take at least 10% away. There is also car($20k), education, medical allowances that are not cap related that can entice a player to stay. For a $100k player, a $20k car = 20% extra. An example Roy Masters points out, a wealthy club sponsor can have a round of golf with a player and bet them $100k they cannot sink a 5cm putt and it's completely above board. As I started with above, there are 100 loopholes but none are illegal. Have Rusty and James taken the team golfing lately?
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
Of course it's too early to call James. Anything can still happen. For example, the chooks might get busted for being over the salary cap and, like the Storm in 2010, lose ALL their competition points and be disqualified from earning any further points for the rest of the season and Latrell Mitchell might jump ship as a result before the June 30 deadline... at least that's the dream I have each night. Do you think it might be prophetic? ;-)
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
Don't confuse the pitifully small "declared" $200K combined TPA's with the Roosters salary cap. This is additional income, not quoted or realistic extrapolations of player salaries I have provided here or in the past. The TPA money has nothing to do with the salaries published by numerous media sources, for example $1.1 Tedesco, $1 mill Cronk, $1 mill Crichton, $850K Cordner, $650K Keary, $650K Friend, $500K Morris, $500K Hall. All of these are registered contract values against the salary cap NOT part of the sum total of salary cap and TPA's.
Nat
Roar Guru
No love for the chooks here Paps. What you've put forward isn't too far off the mark but these are estimations that likely include (total) the $200k in TPA so I would subtract 10% from those. Also, rep payments are excluded (not that $60k over 3 SOO is anything large). There is another $200k for veteran/developed players that friend would qualify for. It's the top 26 that are min $100k, 27 - 30 are $70k, therefore $1m would cover 20 - 30 leaving approx $2.2m for the remainder which average $200k each. Which is probably fair considering the names behind the top line players you listed.
Harvey Wilson
Roar Rookie
I hope Souths win...if it isn't Manly :P
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
He is a great finisher as a left winger with good speed but not South's best option for FB IMO. Look at AJ's try scoring record when he is fit and playing on the wing. It speaks for itself.
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
And like a race horse the Roosters are the "Fine Cotton" of the NRL.
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
I have posted a detailed argument a few weeks ago about this (you can find it under my history if you want to look it up). Compensation and remuneration are two entirely separate things. If a player is able and willing to play but the club chooses to move them on (i.e. Robbie Farah) then part of the salary cap burden for that player should fall on that club, up to the amount not paid by the player's new club if that figure is less. If a player walks out on a club, like SBW did to the Bulldogs or if a player is medically unfit to play the game (irrespective of whether the injury is a direct result from playing the game) the clubs should be free to replace that player up to the equivalent value on the salary cap. Just like in the real world if an employee is injured and can no longer work the company that employs them is not prohibited from filling their position. The employee receives a compensation payout and the company is free to recruit and employ someone else to do the same job. The company is not obliged to leave the position unfilled and to keep paying the employee indefinitely. It's just common sense really. Btw, I read the story on NRL.com last night and it stated that the NRL has ruled that whatever Inglis is paid post-career by Souths for the remaining period of his contract will count against the salary cap. As this, as yet is undetermined, the NRL have nominated a "working figure" of $100K which should then mean that Souths should have $1.4 mill available not $1.1 mill. The NRL confirmed that a final figure would be decided upon later in the year after further consultation with the Rabbitohs. Like Souths, I don't agree with this and I think it can be easily challenged in court even though the Rabbitohs have elected not to do so. What "legal" right does the NRL have to interfere with, determine or influence what the clubs pay their non-NRL playing employees? It's like the Greenberg knee-jerk ruling on JDB before it was even legally in place all over again. In any case, Souths will have more than enough room under the salary cap to bring Latrell Mitchell to Souths in 2020 IF Mitchell signs with Souths, asks for an early release from his contract and it is approved by the Roosters and the NRL. If not Souths are patient and will wait until 2021 to welcome Latrell Mitchell to Redfern. ;-)
Nat
Roar Guru
True. However in the 5 weeks up to that game they pumped Cronulla, Roosters and Souths plus Manly. Obviously St George weren't watching that and didn't follow the script.
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
To the NRL it's the supporters from big business that count. That's where the TPA $$$'s and corporate support for the game comes from. Surely you can't deny that Nick Politis has had a HUGE influence over the NRL for a LONG period of time? This is widely accepted within the game but it is considered taboo to say anything about it. I have heard first hand accounts of two different NRL coaches (one current and one former) who confirmed that Nick Politis has a HUGE influence over the game and everyone within the game knows it but it is like gravity or time, it is a fact that cannot be challenged or changed so you learn to live with it. The same coaches confirmed that everyone in the game KNOWS that the Roosters are over the salary cap just as they KNOW that as long as Politis draws breath the Roosters salary cap will NEVER be investigated as long as the status quo remains. It is monumentally unfair. It is ridiculous and hypocritical of the NRL to run after teams like Manly, the Eels, the Tigers and the Sharks for salary cap breaches that are relatively minor compared to the Roosters systematic rorting of the salary cap from 2013 - 2019. It seems that while the elephant in the room is a Rooster that plays chicken with the NRL auditors Greenberg will remain silent on this issue and do his usual Sergeant Shultz routine; "I know Noothink! Nooooothink!" Funny then that Greenberg sounds like Sergeant Shultz but looks like Colonel Klink! LOL
Censored Often
Roar Rookie
If the Bunnies stay healthy they'll be hard to beat but without the depth of the Chooks they'll struggle if injury strikes. Chooks and their accountant should get the chocolates though....
Emcie
Roar Guru
As attractive as "you don't have to drive to Newcastle (where all our facilities are) every day, you can just train at home" sounds, I'm not sure you can have a crack at a guy who said he was moving to a particular city whether or not he got a contract because he didn't take an off in a different city.
Emcie
Roar Guru
Ah the NRL, where you can play for one club for 14 years, move away for your relationship and if you don't go to the "correct" club you're labeled a mercenary...